TFT Issue 141!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
JJK Jyvaskyla vs FC Honka Espoo
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga game between JJK Jyvaskyla and FC Honka Espoo. These are two of the most attack-minded sides in Finland and I therefore expect a lot of goals in this game.
JJK have won five out of five on their own turf in the Veikkausliiga and average scoring over two goals per home game. They’re in this position because their midfield is quite excellent with Manninen, Gruborovics, Virtanen, and Markkula all playing really well and providing great service to Hyyrynen and Kari, who are actually fairly average. I’m still keen to see what JJK can do what Wusu is back in attack for them but for the present time at least, JJK are a very strong attacking side. They’re capable of scoring goals from range, from wide places, and finishing off short passing moves so they really do have a lot of variety to their games. Only two out of their five home games have gone over 2.5 goals this season, although I’d counter that with the fact that four would have gone over 2.5 goals had they conceded in all of their home games, which is something I expect to happen against Honka today. For all JJK’s attacking prowess, they still have a lot to learn in defence and Honka are the kind of team that can exploit that.
Indeed, it’s partially through not knowing which Honka side will show up that has put me off betting on the home win here, as I’m sure a lot of people will as statistics seem to rule the betting world nowadays rather than a bit of intelligence and knowledge on the teams you’re betting on. I’m not writing off a JJK win here; I’m just saying they’re playing a side that is more than capable of beating them. Unlike JJK, Honka do have the firepower in attack to trouble sides and arguably have the most dangerous attacking duo in Finland up front in Dudu and Savage, both of whom are usually lethal in front of goal and compliment each other very well indeed. I just live in fear that Honka will produce a display today akin to that of their performance at IFK Mariehamn last match. They lost the game 1-0 and although the result was unfair, it still was the result because Honka failed to take any of their chances, of which they made many. We should see Honka’s goalscoring prowess return a little more now that midfielder Otaru is almost back to match fitness again but again – which Honka will show up? If Honka take their chances then this game is easily going over 2.5 goals, especially with their dubious defence. However, if they fail to take their chances then 1-0 or 2-0 is a possible scoreline here.
The decision is obviously yours, guys. I think over 2.5 goals is very generously priced at evens with both sides playing attacking football and having suspect defences. All I need is for Honka to score at least once here and I fancy the game to go over 2.5 goals. For me, the odds are good enough to take a chance on. I’d really not enter the 1×2 market – you saw what Honka did to KuPS when a similar situation arose a few weeks ago – but overs looks a good call here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.