TFT Issue 143!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Tauras Taurage vs Siauliai – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is yet another under 2.5 goals call in Lithuania although this time it’s between Tauras Taurage and Siauliai.
Tauras are the lowest-scoring side outside of the bottom two in the A Lyga this season, which has to be concerning for them, especially considering how well they played last season. It’s unsurprising that an over-achieving club like Tauras had players poached after a good campaign, however, with the likes of Razanauskas going to Suduva Marijampole, Savastas going to Atlantas, Irkha going to Torpedo Zhodino etc. Tauras did well because they scored a good number of goals last season whilst defending well. Although their defence is still largely entact, their attack has taken a hefty blow pre-season and subsequently, they find it very hard to score goals, which is naturally causing them to not win games. Eight out of Tauras’ fourteen A Lyga games this season have gone under 2.5 goals already, including a 1-0 defeat at Siauliai a couple of months ago. Considering that most of those games were away from home, I think Tauras’ ability to defend has been illustrated on various occasions. However, despite Tauras playing less home games than any other A Lyga club this season, it has to be observed that they are the joint-lowest goalscoring side in the A Lyga on their own turf whilst being one of the best defensive sides in the division on their own turf too, although I fear that will worsen as they play more home games because their defence cannot take this level of continual pressure that is being applied due to a lack of a solid midfield and attack. Tauras aren’t what they were, to be blunt, and I don’t think that’ll change for today’s game.
Visitors Siauliai are quite simply the champion of under 2.5 goals games in Lithuania because they cannot score goals and they don’t even attempt to amend that by attacking a lot; they simply defend and try to take chances when they occur. Lithuanian critics have tipped Siauliai to be the dark horses in the A Lyga this season and I can understand that; they’ve got a good squad, especially in defence. There’s plenty of experience, too, which is instrumental. However, this side cannot and will not score goals and that will become a more consistent problem in due course. I mean, look at their team – where are their goals coming from? Tvildiani? Raskov? I don’t see it. I don’t think it’s any coincidence at all that five out of Siauliai’s seven away games in the A Lyga this season have gone under 2.5 goals. To be honest, their record should be even more flattering but they have an unusual knack of being ripped apart by Banga Gargzdai whenever they play them! Siauliai have held Suduva Marijampole and Zalgiris Vilnius to draws away from home already this season, which makes them one of just two sides to avoid defeat at Zalgiris and one of three sides to avoid defeat at Suduva. They’re one of the lowest scoring sides in Lithuania away from home and one of the lowest conceding sides too, which is naturally beneficial for under 2.5 goals tips!
I’ll give a brief insight to recent form as some of you may be scratching your heads at the above information if you view Siauliai’s 0-4 defeat against Kruoja Pakruojis, for example. What happened in that game was Kruoja surprisingly taking their chances; nothing more. Siauliai’s 1-3 result against Banga Gargzdai – I can’t explain that; I never can when they play Banga as it just defies logic every time they meet. Siauliai are simply not a goalscoring side, however – they’re just a very reliable defensive side, basically. The hosts won’t score; the visitors can’t score. For me, under 2.5 goals is very generously priced at 4/5 here, hence the selection.
Incidentally – this game is being played in Gargzdai whilst Tauras’ stadium is renovated so the hosts don’t really have a “home” advantage here. It’s also worth noting that all eight A Lyga meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals with seven of them going under 1.5 goals!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
UEFA European U21 Championship today
Czech Republic vs Belarus
The Czechs have doubts over Pekhart and the Belarusians miss Gordeychuk but both sides have a full squad available to them aside from that. Despite both sides having played 120 minutes in the semi-final against their respective opponents, I still think the Belarusians will be more tired than the Czechs due to the manner of their display. The Belarusians scored and sat back for the whole game, working very hard to frustrate their opponents but they brought little else to the game, just as they’ve done in all of their games, really. They’re a solid defensive unit but nothing else. Their side, by all rights, should be knackered after four crushing games whereas the Czechs had a more routine game with the Swiss and should at least be fairly fresh as a result. The Czechs have a better side, especially in attack, and although their lack of width has hurt them, they’re still good enough to score a goal or two here. I think Belarus will make it hard for the Czechs, just like they have for almost everyone, but the Czechs should eventually break through with their superior ability. For me, there’s value in a Czech win at 24/25 today, especially with a place at the Olympics at stake for the winner.
Verdict: Czech Republic to win at 24/25.
Switzerland vs Spain
I can’t see any bets of interest for this game, to be honest. The odds appear correctly set in my eyes. I can’t endorse backing Spain against a Swiss side that has conceded just once in the whole tournament because of their stubborn defence, especially given the potency of the Swiss attack. Spain are not great in attack, in my view, irrespective of what their record shows. Their midfield is magical and will help them in any game but is it enough against the Swiss? I’m not so sure. The Belarusians scared the Spanish (again!) by scoring and holding it and they were just one minute from reaching the final, too. The Swiss could manage that against the Spanish, in my view. I just don’t like any bet in this game, really. Spain could really turn it on and blitz three wonderful goals in from midfield or they could produce their usual frustrating display with not enough goals being scored. There are too many variants in this game for me to have confidence in recommending anything so it’s a big “avoid” for me.
Verdict: No bet