TFT Issue 144!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Comments on the members posts are not removed at the current time because there’s nothing like the level of crap in here as there is out there. However, rest assured that if there’s a vast amount of overspill into the members post as a result (e.g. people posting bullshit here as a substitute for the main page) then the ability to comment will be removed here too. I genuinely don’t have enough time to mop up after people so be smart!
UEFA European U21 Championship summary
I leave this tournament quite happily as I feel the results in it raised more questions than giving answers. I mean, seriously – Belarus U21 came third? I rate the Belarusians but they are a defensive side who attempt to beat sides by scoring a set piece/counter-attack and sitting back for the remainder of the game! Iceland failed to deliver until the final game of their campaign, England failed to deliver, the Czechs fell flat after a while due to a lack of width, and then we have strikerless Spain dominating the tournament! Still, onward and upward to the Copa America!
Featured game
Amkar Perm’ vs CSKA Moscow – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Russian Premier League encounter between relegation-battlers Amkar Perm’ and title hopefuls CSKA Moscow.
Perm’ is a city where no side likes to play football – well, barring Amkar, of course. It’s intimidating, the pitch is compact, and the home side is very experienced at doing what they do best – harrassing sides and being overly physical. Amkar are the absolute masters at this “tactical” approach in the Russian Premier League and you’ll find me rarely backing sides to win at Amkar because of it. I mean, just look at their statistics this season – they’ve played six home games and have conceded in just one of those games in a bizarre and allegedly fixed 1-2 defeat against Tom’ Tomsk. They’ve not conceded a goal at home since then, which I personally consider to be pretty damn impressive. They fend off the bigger sides, usually with 0-0 draws, and tend to edge 1-0 wins against fellow relegation battlers, hence usually managing to avoid the drop. The departure of big Bulgarian striker Kushev was yet another hurdle for the minnows to overcome but Dalovic and Ristic have done a decent job. Amkar are not a talented side but they’re very experienced and are a strong, galvanised unit under Rakhimov that should never be underestimated.
CSKA Moscow are a hit-and-miss side, really. They’re capable of beating anyone in this division and yet they do it when they feel like it nowadays. My problem with them is that they’re a very bland outfit, usually somewhat bereft of creativity. Nonetheless, their immense back four and goalkeeper combination earns them so many points per season that they usually attain a good league placing. Akinfeev in goal with the Berzeuitskiy twins, Ignashevich, and youngster Schennikov in front of him is an experienced combination (well, barring Schennikov) and CSKA benefit a lot from it. They’re all physical defenders but with a bit of pace too, barring Ignashevich. Young Schennikov at left-back actually slots into the team very well as he provides a great level of attacking support from defence, which is considerably more important than it’s considered to be en mass. CSKA lack a great deal of width without him, strangely enough, and don’t seem to buy wingers any longer. Tosic is a decent winger but his speciality is set pieces – he wouldn’t be in the team otherwise. Gonzalez is a shade of what he was – he’s quick but with little end produce anymore. Aside from that, it’s CSKA’s old favourite tactic of ploughing through the middle and hoping a labyrinth of passnig will bamboozle their opponents into making an error from which CSKA score and then hang on to for dear life. It doesn’t always work out that way – they occasionally show up and smash two or three goals in – but usually only occurs when Vagner Love shows up. CSKA’s central midfield lacks authority and commitment in a big way with sulky Honda and a somewhat stagnant Dzagoev occupying it currently. Honda can still produce the sublime but not usually before dancing his way through the ridiculous before it. Ultimately, this CSKA side can be very frustrating and I think they’ll be even more frustrating today.
You see, CSKA Moscow have some big, big absentees today. There’s no Necid or Vagner Love to lead the line and with Maazou still out, that means they have only got Doumbia, who is a good striker but he’s not going to run this show by himself. And I do mean by himself, incidentally – there’s no Gonzalez or Schennikov today so that’s no left-side for CSKA Moscow. This CSKA Moscow side is going to be so unbalanced that I’m going to be surprised if they even score here. Try ploughing through the middle of midfield against Amkar and you’ll find a wall of players – they know how to defend against that! CSKA may score some joy as Amkar miss their best defender Sirakov and goalkeeper Narubin but CSKA’s attack doesn’t concern me enough to be bothered by their absences here.
I’d hate to pick a winner here as I really rate Amkar at home and CSKA are really struggling for numbers today. However, under 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks very tempting here as all of Amkar’s last five home games have gone under 2.5 goals and six out of the last seven meetings between these two sides in Perm’ have gone under 2.5 goals. Four of those head-to-heads have ended goalless and CSKA have won in Perm’ just once during their last seven attempts so I really don’t fancy their chances today. However, what does interest me massively is under 2.5 goals and with the above in mind, under 2.5 goals’ price being 4/5 is very appealing.
Team newws – Amkar Perm’ miss Sirakov, Topchu, and Narubin whereas CSKA Moscow miss Vagner Love, Necid, Maazou, Gonzalez, and Schennikov.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund – home win at 4/5.
Three losses in a row for Stromsgodset now but that statistic is a bit harsh as two of those games were away from home and Stromsgodset are crap away from home for varying reasons. However, they’re damn good at home at the Marienlyst because they relentlessly attack and sides find it hard to settle against their young and quick attack, especially whilst trying to adjust to the artificial turf. Stromsgodset lost their first home game of the season against Molde FK and although the form chart showed that as a possibility, it still wasn’t a fair outcome in my view – should have been 2-2. It’s their five wins from their previous six home games that interests me, however, as they’re notoriously good on their own turf. Star attacker Berget is a doubt today but I still expect him to feature. Stromsgodset still have Kamara, Keita, Konradsen, Nordkvelle, and Storflor to cause problems if he is absent and Deila’s side always attacks anyway so I fully expect them to score at least once or twice here.
Haugesund – well, they’ve been a pretty piss poor away side in the Eliteserien ever since they joined it last year, which was backed up with defeat at newly-promoted Sogndal in their last Eliteserien away game as they lost 3-1. That was their fourth loss in five away games this season with the one exception bafflingly being their 0-1 win at Rosenborg BK, which was strangely deserved. Haugesund have been atrocious in their other away games, however, scoring just once in four away games and generally shipping goals rather easily. They’ve got some injury problems ahead of this game, too – Nilsen and long-term absentee Tronseth are missing from defence and a lot of their midfield is missing with Sorensen joining Savolainen, Maeland, and Steinslands on the sidelines. Haugesund don’t have much in the way of depth and I think they’re going to be overrun by Stromsgodset’s quick and tenacious midfield today, which should ultimately condemn them to defeat here.
Therefore, my call is the home win at a good price of 4/5.
Team news – Stromsgodset have doubts over Berget whereas Haugesund miss Maeland, Sorensen, Tronseth, Savolainen, Nilsen, and Steinsland.
Verdict: Stromsgodset to win at 4/5.
FK Ventspils vs Liepajas Metalurgs – home win at 4/5.
I’d not touch the home win at anything less than 4/5 here as this is a big derby, after all. However, Liepajas Metalurgs have been a bit poor of late, succumbing to three defeats in their last four Virsliga games. Worryingly, they’ve scored in just two of those games and really struggled to find their feet at home to what I can only describe as a “vulnerable” Skonto Riga last match, losing 0-1. I suppose it shouldn’t be a great surprise, really, not with Grebis and Rakels both leaving pre-season. That leaves Karness bearing the brunt of their attack on his own and considering that he didn’t play a game last season, that’s a pretty big ask. They’ve got a decent midfield but they’re no longer a prolific goalscoring side and it’s really starting to show. A lot of people will be put off backing Ventspils here as they demonstrated that they are actually human, contrary to popular belief, as they lost 2-0 at Jelgava last match. It wasn’t made easier as Postnikov was sent off for two bookable offences but the defeat came about because Ventspils were shattered from their Baltic League final, in which they played 120 minutes. They should be back to normal today and there’s no doubts whatsoever that Ventspils are the better of these two sides and they absolutely have the quality to make it count. Sukhanov and Mvondo have dominated games in midfield and Martinez and Abdultaofik have done well in attack although Ventspils are still struggling to find their starting duo in attack with Visnakovs and Rugins both vying for places. Nonetheless, Ventspils have a strong squad and really should have too much for their local rivals today.
Team news – FK Ventspils miss Postnikov.
Verdict: FK Ventspils to win at 4/5.
UMF Grindavik vs KR Reykjavik – lay KR Reykjavik at 4/5.
I can’t help but feel that KR Reykjavik are very short to win this game. They have played well this season, admittedly, and they’re arguably the strongest side in Iceland right now whilst FH Hafnarfjordur have their customary slow start to the season. However, they’ve got a UEFA Europa League game in the Faroe Islands in four days time against IF Fuglafjordur and I’m confident that KR Reykjavik will rest players here ahead of that game. A trip to the Faroes is not as easy as it used to be and none know that better than the Icelandic teams as there are more Faroese players in the Urvalsdeild than ever before. KR’s rivals Valur signed two – Por Naes and Justinussen – from the Meistaradeildin pre-season to join up with ex-Manchester City youngster Mouritsen as Faroese football continues to rise. The game with IF Fuglafjordur will be much harder than anticipated and KR boss Olafsson knows it. Grindavik aren’t more than the usual relegation battlers but they are tenacious hosts and they will make KR work hard here, just as they did last season during their 3-3 draw. KR have only won here once since 2003 so they don’t usually enjoy their trips here, despite being the superior team. Grindavik need every point available when playing at home and this is a game that they can take points from if they apply themselves correctly. I expect KR to rest players here in either case so I find odds of laying KR at 4/5 as being good value today.
Verdict: Lay KR Reyjkavik at 4/5.
07 Vestur Sorvagur vs IF Fuglafjordur – home win at 6/5.
07 Vestur Sorvagur have been a bit crap since earning promotion to the Meistaradeildin but they’re starting to get more streetwise as the weeks go by and they’ve actually played well at home lately, not to mention showing terrific resolve. The number of goals that they concede will probably become fatal, ultimately, but I’m not so sure it will be that way today. The hosts have only failed to score once in their last five home games, scoring ten times along the way. Indeed, they lost their last game 4-6 against NSI Runavik despite trailing 0-4 at one point before pulling it back to 4-4 and sadly losing out at the end. They’ve really started to hold their own at home, however, and only the big boys of Faroese football are winning here so I fancy their chances today. IF Fulgafjordur have done well since their new duo took over as managers but there’s no doubt whatsoever that they’ll be resting players for the KR Reykjavik game in a few days in the UEFA Europa League. IF don’t usually travel well anyway due to not scoring many so I think they’ll struggle against their attacking hosts. Therefore, odds of 6/5 on the home win are appealing here.
Verdict: 07 Vestur Sorvagur to win at 6/5.
HB Torshavn vs B36 Torshavn – away win at 4/5.
The Torshavn derby sees HB enter it with a new coach following Hansen’s dismissal. Instead, it’s old hand Clementsen who takes charge and his first task is to find a new assistant manager as Mohr has also left HB Torshavn. He’s got his hands full, Clementsen, because it’s not the manager that’s the problem at HB – it’s their players. They’ve got some excellent players like Poulsen and Samuelsen in midfield, not to mention general Benjaminsen. However, they’re lightweight in attack with only old hand av Flotum able to put the ball in the net and HB subsequently don’t play well against good sides in the Meistaradeildin nowadays. They lost 3-1 at EB/Streymur prior to Hansen’s dismissal and yet they could have and should have conceded at least six with EB/Streymur bafflingly missing three first-half penalties, all of which were very poorly taken. HB are a decent team and they’re still going to be there or thereabouts at the end of the season but it’s going to take more than a new manager to awaken these sleeping giants.
B36 have taken HB’s place at the top of the Faroese tree following convincingly good displays both at home and away. They’re yet to lose in the Meistaradeildin this season and have won half of their away games already, despite one of them being at a tricky NSI Runavik side. B36 do well on the road because they always score, unlike their hosts. If my memory serves me correctly, B36 are the oldest club in the Faroe Islands so being top of the table will double their joy at their start to the season. Polish striker Cieslewicz is destroying this league because he’s playing well below his level and the excellent left foot of Suni Olsen is a constant threat from the wing so B36 do have options in their team, especially with Jacobsen and Hojsted to support their advances. B36 aren’t quite at EB/Streymur’s level yet, in my view, irrespective of their start to the season. However, they are better than HB right now and even with potential new manager syndrome kicking in here, I still fancy the away win at 4/5.
Verdict: B36 Torshavn to win at 4/5.
Avai vs Fluminense – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
I’m a bit tired of people rating Fluminense as a force in Brazil nowadays because they’re not, frankly. They had one excellent season and aside from that, this side tends to battle against relegation, despite them actually being a huge side in Brazil. You have to appreciate that Fluminense did well because Muricy was in charge, which he no longer is. Fluminense look a shadow of the side they were last season and I expect that to continue. I mean, you can name all the players you want to but they’re still not producing the goods. Fred has been poor for Fluminense, Deco is doing his bit with little support, and Conca is barely even on the pitch when you take into account his contribution. Valencia, Moura, Mariano – they’re decent players but nothing special. That term adequately sums up Fluminense, to be honest – “nothing special”. Four out of Fluminense’s five Serie A games this season have gone under 2.5 goals due to them not scoring goals and they’ve already lost three out of their five games. Can they win tonight? I wouldn’t rule it out, primarily because Avai aren’t a very good team. Much like Ceara, Avai rely on their compact pitch and physical presence to scare sides into succumbing to their ways on their own turf. Avai are generally very good at scoring goals, too, which doesn’t help the under 2.5 goals call here. However, one thing Fluminense do still have is a solid defence and I think they can keep the goals conceded to a minimum here. Fluminense themselves aren’t scoring many but they are still marginally better than their hosts. I basically expect the same type of game as we saw between these two sides last year although without Avai capitulating in the early stages of the second-half and thus I think there’s value in taking under 2.5 goals at 11/10 here.
Team news – Fluminense miss Araujo and Rodriguinho whilst having doubts over Diguinho.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco da Gama – home win at 7/5.
As D correctly pointed out a couple of days ago, I am very interested in this game indeed. Atletico Goianiense boss Gusmao has a terrific record when taking a new club against one of his former clubs and I expect that to continue today. Right-back Cruz has joined Atletico Goianiense on loan from Atletico Mineiro and will most likely make his debut today. Atletico Goianiense also welcome back Juninho from injury so Gusmao has a lot of toys to play with ahead of this game. Gusmao has lined up this side the same way he lines all his sides up; defensively, rock-solid, physical, and efficient. This side is built to endure and to take points at home and I’m confident that they will in a lot more games than they should this season. Atletico Goianiense don’t have many of what I’d call “good” players – they’re quite average, to be honest. However, Gusmao is just a terrific organiser and man-motivator – his teams are a nightmare to play against and I expect to see that enforced today. Vasco da Gama haven’t really taken a step up since parting company with Gusmao by appointing Gomes as boss. Gomes is experienced but Vasco need to be fighters before they can reclaim their title as one of the giants of Brazilian football and they don’t have the players to be as good as a manager like Gomes merits. Alecsandro and Elton are decent strikers, especially the former, but they’re a bit hit-and-miss elsewhere. Juninho Perambucano, formerly of Olympique Lyonnais, is a great addition to the team except that he’s not played yet! Vasco have already been drubbed 5-1 by Coritiba away from home this season, demonstrating how they can be torn apart by the right application. Vasco are fortunate to have not had a genuinely hard game yet or else they may be much lower in the table. Either way, I fancy Gusmao to get one over on his ex-club here – he just always seems to manage it.
Verdict: Atletico Goianiense to win at 7/5.
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo – home win at 6/5.
The Sao Paulo derby is here and amusingly portrays Sao Paulo as the better team on paper, which they’re not. Sao Paulo perfect a rather bland style of football that sees them win 1-0 or 2-0 most games but hey, whatever works. They’ve done well to cope without Hernanes so far this season and have been quite astute in the transfer market when it came to replacing him. You know who they signed? Ex-Barcelona legend Rivaldo! He’s one of the most gifted midfielders I’ve ever seen and despite being thirty-nine years of age, he’s still got amazing ability. Additionally, Sao Paulo are pretty happy at how well Lucas Silva and Casmiro have been playing this season, despite still being very young. Dagoberto and Luis Fabiano could forge a dangerous attack in time but Sao Paulo aren’t the finished article yet, contrary to their form guide. They’ve won all five games so far this season, admittedly, but they’ve not been excellent and they have had some relatively simple games. This is a very difficult game for any side but especially for Sao Paulo in the derby. It’s been made worse for them by the crisis of absentees that they’ve had ahead of this encounter with half their defence out – Juan, Henrique Miranda, and Miranda – not to mention midfielder Souto and youngster Lucas. Sao Paulo will struggle without them.
Additionally, I do rate Corinthians as the better side here. The only side to stop Corinthians winning this season has been Flamengo whilst Corinthians have been efficient and impressive. Their attack looks dangerous with Liedson and Willian up there although it’ll be interesting to see how they do when fat Adriano is back with them. They do miss Henrique but Corinthians have a lot of depth so I’m not too concerned. What does concern me about Corinthians this season is the departure of Dentinho – that’s a massive blow for them long-term and Shakhtar Donetsk have made a great deal to sign him. Nonetheless, Corinthians are a very complete unit of a team and I really fancy them to do the business here – they’re simply a more dangerous side than Sao Paulo. Derbies are anything but “simple”, admittedly, but 6/5 on the best side in Brazil winning at home is something that would appeal to me in almost every round of the Serie A campaign.
Team news – Corinthians miss Adriano and Henrique whereas Sao Paulo miss Juan, Rodrigo Souto, Lucas, Henrique Miranda, and Miranda.
Verdict: Corinthians to win at 6/5.