TFT Issue 148!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Orebro vs Elfsborg Boras – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between Orebro and Elfsborg Boras. These two sides tend to rely quite heavily on their artificial pitches to give them a good home advantage but as you can already see – there’s no advantage in that today as this style of pitch suits both sides immensely.
Orebro have gone off the boil ever since Bedoya left for the Gold Cup but as he’s now back, I expect them to become at least a shade more consistent as their midfield returns to its dominant self now that he’ll be partnering Gerzic again. Striker Haddad has missed out of late and I’ve not heard whether he’ll be available or not today, to be honest. However, Rama has been contributing and Paulinho is always a threat so Orebro’s shape has pretty much remained the same. What has to be concerning for them, however, is the ease with which they concede goals. They’ve kept just two clean sheets in the Allsvenskan since mid-April and considering that those two clean sheets were against rock-bottom Halmstad (in a game they should have conceded in!) and newly-promoted IFK Norrkoping, it’s not too impressive a record. Orebro still have the firepower to get points off sides but they won’t finish as high in the table as they did last season if they continue defending as poorly as they have been. Six out of their last eight Allsvenskan games have gone over 2.5 goals – the only ones that haven’t are when they’ve kept a clean sheet! – and they’ve gone over 2.5 goals in five out of their last six home games, scoring and conceding in all but one of their home games in the Allsvenskan this season.
Elfsborg Boras would normally stand quite a good chance of taking points here but I’m unsure exactly what Haglund will do for this game. Elfsborg Boras are in Luxembourg in a few days time for the return leg of their UEFA Europa League tie and having won the first leg 4-0, it’s virtually job done. However, they still have to make sure the job is done and thus they may rest players here. If not, they’re fielding players that have played just three days ago and that can obviously make them a little tired here. Elfsborg are the better of these two sides and it’s strikers like Elm and Nilsson that are proving it so far this season. Elfsborg generally do badly away from home due to the change in turf but that’s not a factor today so don’t read much into their away form. Hult has plenty of pace on the flank and Svensson is a gifted playmaker so Elfsborg definitely have good attacking options for Orebro’s shaky defence to not deal with! Elfsborg themselves don’t pay much attention to defending, hence all their home games this season easily going over 2.5 goals. Their away form differs, as I touched upon briefly before, but I don’t think that’ll be a factor here due to the suitability of the pitch in comparison to Elfsborg’s approach to the game.
Therefore, I think we’ll see a lot of goals here, one way or another. The last four games between these two sides have all easily cleared 2.5 goals and with both sides deploying attacking tactics with little ability to hold leads, I think over 2.5 goals is generously priced at evens.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional games
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Siauliai – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
I still maintain that Zalgiris Vilnius aren’t as good as the A Lyga table portrays them to be but there are a lot of poor sides in this division so it’s perhaps understandable as to why their statistics look so flattering. However, we’ve seen more of the “real” Zalgiris lately as they power their way to narrow win after narrow win. You can look at Zalgiris’ home form charts in the A Lyga and heavily handicap them here or you can use your brain and note that the only two sides Zalgiris have scored more than once against since mid-April are Atlantas (in an 8-1 drubbing, which came about because Atlantas’ players weren’t training due to conflicts with the club) and Dainava in a 0-2 win with the second goal coming in stoppage time at the end of the game. Zalgiris simply do not push to score more goals; they’re fully confident in their ability to hold leads and why not – they’re very good at it, especially in their beloved arena. Four out of Zalgiris’ last five games have ended 0-1 and they’ve gone under 2.5 goals in all but four of their A Lyga games this season, which tells you much more about the real Zalgiris. They are rock-solid at the back but in front of goal – there’s a lot of improvement that can be done.
Visitors Siauliai are still fourth in the A Lyga table, which would probably have been their aim pre-season, although I doubt it’s in the manner they’d have liked. Siauliai have really struggled to find the net so only half of their plan is going the way they want it to. Defensively, they’re more than good enough to keep most A Lyga sides out but at the other end of the field, they just aren’t doing the business. Only three sides have scored less than they have away from home this season and two of them are in the bottom two in the league! The fact that Siauliai have only lost once in eight away games demonstrates how strong they can be on the road but the fact that they’ve won three of those eight tells another story entirely about how hard they find it to score goals.
With the above in mind, I think we’re in for an under 2.5 goals game here. There’s not as much between these two sides as the A Lyga table would have you believe, in my view. I think both play the same style of football although Zalgiris arguably have more experienced players. I’d not put any money on the 1×2 market here but as usual, the bookies seem to have been very generous with the odds on under 2.5 goals so that’s my call today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Halmstad vs AIK Solna – away win at 6/5.
Well, that’s the last thing Halmstad would have wanted, isn’t it?! They’d finally started to improve their displays and have even been unlucky in a few recent games but their form should take a real nosedive now as Real Madrid have recalled all of their on-loan players. Subsequently, Zamora, Hernandez, and Ruiz are all gone and considering that they’ve been regulars in the side and a key part of boss Ruiz’s tactics, I think Halmstad are in a really dangerous position right now and could end up in the Superettan unless things pick up quickly. Those absentees are going to do Halmstad’s attack a lot of damage and considering that they were already struggling to score goals, I don’t see them doing much in the near future. Halmstad have lost three out of their last four home games in all competitions and I can’t see that improving today.
The sole reason I’m a little dubious with this bet is because AIK Solna are a very, very funny side. They play when they want to, basically, and they rarely turn it on away from home as statistics will back up. However, they’ve won their last away game at a good Trelleborg side and have now won three out of four games with striking duo Bangura and Bangura lighting up the Allsvenskan and being notoriously hard to handle. They’ve got virtually a full-strength side here and they are better than Halmstad so in my view, they really should win this game.
Will they win it? That’s the million dollar question, I suppose. If the AIK Solna that lost 0-2 against Gefle turns up here then they’ll draw. If the AIK Solna that won at Trelleborg turns up here today then they’ll win. Either way, the odds are worth the risk, in my view, as Halmstad are very low on confident and very short on numbers today so 6/5 on the away win appeals to me.
Verdict: AIK Solna to win at 6/5.