TFT Issue 1481!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
As ever, approach each tip with caution and intelligence. Every tip has the potential to win or to lose; it depends how the team plays. My advice would always be to watch the games (where possible) and bet in-play because you’ve got an idea of what should happen in the game (based on the preview) and you can judge if things are going the way that they should or not. In-play betting is a very valuable tool that is not to be overlooked! If you have any questions then feel free to ask.
Bankers
I’d be surprised if they all win as betting isn’t that simple but these are the bets that really should come in. You know it’s a weird day when the majority of them don’t come in!
Timor-Leste vs United Arab Emirates
Timor-Leste pissed me off by getting a result in Malaysia last time out. I don’t honestly believe that they’re capable of repeating that feat here, even at home. UAE can be random when taking on good teams but when taking on inferior teams, they tend to be pretty damn consistent. As far as I am concerned, there’s a huge gulf in class here and although the state of the pitch and UAE’s inconsistency has swayed me from any heavy handicaps, the visitors shouldn’t struggle when it comes to winning the match.
Verdict: United Arab Emirates to win at 1/10.
Japan vs Singapore
I quite like the Singapore side at the moment but the reality is that they’re not going to like this game very much because Japan are arguably the best side in Asia right now. Singapore aren’t bad themselves but taking on Japan away from home is never going to end well for them and today should be no exception. Japan should really put three or four past them but they’re far too random for my liking, frequently wasting good opportunities and often defending in scary fashion so I won’t take them to hammer Singapore. The home win is not in question, however.
Verdict: Japan to win at 1/50.
Myanmar vs vs South Korea
South Korea have a lot of talented players in their ranks nowadays but it’s their collective strength that impresses me more than anything else. They attack and defend well and teams find it very hard to beat them. However, they’re not that great at penetrating defences and I fancy them to make harder work of this game than they should. As the better team, South Korea shouldn’t struggle to beat Myanmar but I wouldn’t touch any big scorelines here.
Verdict: South Korea to win at 1/10.
Kyrgyzstan vs Australia
There’s a big quality gap here. I may not it too much when the attacking impetus is on Australia as they’re better at playing as underdogs but against a side like Kyrgyzstan, I can only see one side emerging victorious and it’s the visitors.
Verdict: Australia to win at 1/8.
Bhutan vs China
And lastly, we have the biggest quality gap of the day – Bhutan vs China. China are light years ahead of Bhutan and if they fail to win this game comfortably then there’s something very, very wrong somewhere!
Verdict: China to win at 1/100
Featured game
Poland vs Greece
Today’s featured game is the international friendly between Poland and Greece.
The odds are rising on this selection because rumour has it that Greece will make it into “pot 3” because of their stance in the FIFA rankings if they beat Poland today, which would mean taking on less superior side. I don’t know how you all feel about that little nugget of information but personally, it’s only encouraged me to back Poland. All of Greece’s notorious successes over the years have come in games when they’re not expected to do anything because they’re very much an underdog team. Whenever they’re expected to do well, they really struggle and I expect to see that here.
Poland have said that they’ll rotate players here but the mooted line-up (Boruc, Cionek, Glik, Pazdan, Komorowski, Blaszczykowski, Borysiuk, Linetty, Zielinski, Grosicki, and Milik) is more than capable of winning this game. It’s not so much the personnel that matter when playing against Greece, in my opinion – it’s the tactical approach, which is what Faroe Islands have done well against them with in the current UEFA European Championship Qualifying campaign. Greece are very good at winning aerial battles and being too organised at the back for their opponents to overcome. However, they lose their organisational advantage in the moment where it becomes apparent that they’ve got to attack, which is the case for this game.
What happens in such scenarios is that Greece have to abandon their defensive stance and get at teams. Now, they’re not blessed with creativity as it is but with Karagounis having finally hung up his boots, it’s hard to see them creating anything at all. Ninis hasn’t really fulfilled his potential although his talent is undeniable. Fetfatzidis is a dangerous winger but has struggled with injuries this season. Christodoulopoulos’ direct runs are dangerous but we’re scraping the barrel a bit here. The point is that Greece lack naturally creative players and thus struggle to score goals. Additionally, when they push out, they leave themselves exposed at the back as they’re not quick to begin with. When the above happens, Greece tend to concede goals without scoring any, which tends to result in losses!
Subsequently, irrespective of the side that Poland put out, I believe that they’ll beat a very bland and predictable Greek side. If the Greeks aren’t bothered then this will be a difficult game for Poland but based on the reports I have read about what happens if Greece fail to win this game, I believe that the visitors will try their best to win this game and that should play into Poland’s hands. To me, the home win is worth taking at 9/10.
Verdict: Poland to win at 9/10.
Additional games
Malaysia vs Palestine
I appreciate that Malaysia let us all down against Timor-Leste last time out but I don’t believe that we’ll see the same here. Malaysia struggled to kill the game off because of Timor-Leste’s defensive approach but Palestine won’t play the same way as it’s not in their nature to do so. In footballing terms, Palestine are like a poor man’s Israel in the sense that there’s plenty of spirit and determination, not to mention application, but very little quality at the end of it. Palestine try to attack and score goals but they’re not all that good at it, which usually results in them conceding plenty of goals without scoring many themselves. I admire their fearlessness and their desire to play good football but this is not an easy game to play in. Malaysia have a huge home advantage with their massive support and as a footballing nation, they’re progressing rapidly year after year. Qatar are the only side that have managed to beat them here in a qualifier over the past few years and that was only 1-0. Malaysia are really very strong at home and I don’t believe that Palestine’s vibrant approach will cause them any real concerns. Indeed, it should play right into their hands as Malaysia look far better when they have room to operate in. To me, taking Malaysia to win this game with draw no bet cover is a good value bet at 4/5.
Verdict: Malaysia to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Andorra U21 vs Lithuania U21
I quite like Lithuania U21 but make no mistake – there’s nothing special about them. They’re the better side, yes, but they don’t have as many sparks as they’d like. For starters, the likes of Spalvis and Slivka are with the senior team and aren’t eligible to feature in this match, which damages their attack. Stankevicius is available and Simkus, Sirgedas, Segdza, and especially Kazlauskas are capable of assisting him in winning this game for the visitors but Lithuania U21 don’t bring anything to the table that cannot be handled. They’re a bit laborious when it comes to getting forward and they just don’t have enough in their ranks to penetrate defences unless their opponents are attacking them, which Andorra U21 are very unlikely to do because they’re not very good at it. Yes, Andorra U21 were laid to waste by Slovenia U21 last time out but beat in mind that they came up against a good Slovenia U21 side and committed some horrible mistakes because they were forced into it. I really don’t believe that Lithuania U21 have that kind of power so barring an unexpected early goal, taking under 2.5 goals at 11/10 is very alluring.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Copa America previews
Paraguay vs Jamaica
Paraguay may have stunned people with their 2-2 draw against Argentina, myself included, but I wouldn’t get carried away with them. They were being attacked and their goals came as retaliation to those attacks. When it comes to attacking sides and breaking them down, Paraguay struggle to do much. Jamaica are a naturally cautious side that won’t give much away as their strengths lie within defending and counter-attacking. Uruguay barely created anything against them last time out and I don’t expect an even more limited Paraguay side to have any more joy in that area. To me, taking under 2.5 goals (albeit at horrible odds of 3/5) should really be a given.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/5.
Argentina vs Uruguay
Hmm. Tough one, this. These two are neighbours and old foes so cards are a given. Uruguay may be lazy and boring against poor sides but they come to life against good teams and they don’t come much better than Argentina in South America. Both sides will be exceptionally motivated here and both are capable of damaging one another. Argentina are the better team and they should win the game but the bookies know that and have priced it accordingly. Every side in the competition will be at their absolute best against Argentina and Brazil respectively, though – that’s a given. That – along with the old rivalry – makes this a very hard game to call, just as Colombia vs Venezuela proved to be the other night. Part of me thinks that there’s enough here to send the game over 2.5 goals but at the same time, Uruguay are very bland at times with little creativity and Argentina are gradually becoming a side that likes to sit on narrow leads so there are plenty of arguments for taking under 2.5 goals too. Honestly, I’d much rather sit this one out and see what happens because it should be an interesting game, whatever happens.
Verdict: No bet.
Team news
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Jaro Pietarsaari – Emet, Reginaldo Junior, and Moore are absent.
Ilves – Koskinen, Ugwunna, and Vakkala are absent.
HiFK Helsinki – Mustonen and Aho are absent.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Nganbe Nganbe, Checinski, Majava, and Poskinovic are absent. Jammeh, Roiha, Poylio, and Yaghoubi are doubts.
Remaining thoughts
World Cup Qualifiers – Asia:
Guam vs India (5) 1-1
Timor-Leste vs United Arab Emirates (7) 0-2
North Korea vs Uzbekistan (6) 0-0
Japan vs Singapore (9) over 2.5 goals
Bangladesh vs Tajikistan (5) 1-2
Cambodia vs Afghanistan (6) 1-0
Chinese Taipei vs Thailand (5) 0-1
Hong Kong vs Maldives (6) 1-0
Bhutan vs China (7) 0-2
Laos vs Lebanon (5) 1-1
Myanmar vs South Korea (7) 0-2
Malaysia vs Palestine (5) 1-0
Turkmenistan vs Iran (6) 0-1
Kyrgyzstan vs Australia (7) 0-2
Yemen vs Philippines (6) 2-1
International Friendlies:
South Africa vs Angola (5) 1-0
Jordan vs Trinidad & Tobago (6) 1-0
Italy vs Portugal (6) 1-0
Poland vs Greece (7) 2-0
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Latvia vs Malta (6) 1-0
Andorra vs Lithuania (6) 0-1
Estonia vs San Marino (7) 2-0
Romania vs Armenia (7) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HiFK Helsinki vs RoPS Rovaniemi (5) 0-0
Jaro Pietarsaari vs Ilves (6) 2-1