TFT Issue 151!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Irtysh Pavlodar vs Jagiellonia Bialystok – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League encounter in Kazakhstan between Irtysh Pavlodar and Jagiellonia Bialystok. With the first leg ending 1-0 to Jagiellonia in Poland, this tie is still very much in the balance so I expect a very “guarded” game from both sides today.
During their brief stint in European football, Irtysh have always played a very cautious game, which is quite wise, really. There’s no point them taking the approach that Zestafoni from Georgia take, for example – they go gung-ho and get beat. No, Irtysh play a game very similar to opponents Jagiellonia only in a rather less efficient manner. They weren’t bad in the first leg, really – the red card for Mihaylyuk didn’t help them at all and they eventually conceded. They had a reasonable measure of Jagiellonia and on home ground, I certainly wouldn’t rule them out nicking a win here. They’ve got a couple of decent players in Nikolic and Daskalov, for example, so again – don’t write them off here. I’m not sure they’ll be able to break through a stubborn Jagiellonia defence, however, so the 1×2 market doesn’t interest me here.
In the Ekstraklasa last season, Jagiellonia were always very defensive, both at home and away. For the first-half of the season, they had Grosicki doing all the running and Frankowski scoring all the goals. Grosicki left, however – he went playing for Sivasspor, if my memory serves me correctly. That fucked Jagiellonia up, to be blunt – now they just play 4-5-1 with lumbering Frankowski up front on his own. Frankowski is a very good and experienced striker but Jagiellonia don’t give him the support that he needs and subsequently, Jagiellonia rarely score goals, especially away from home. Ironically, Frankowski is a major doubt today due to injury so if he plays, his stay on the field will be somewhat minimal. This situation really isn’t ideal for Jagiellonia and I cannot imagine them doing anything but what they always do in this scenario, defending deep, being solid, reliable, dominant in possession, and totally unadventurous. I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t score here, to be blunt – a 0-0 draw would not only see them through but would suit their style of play.
Indeed, pre-match tactics appear to support my theory with Jagiellonia having been working largely on set pieces for most of the week as they’ve been training in Dinamo Minsk’s stadium in Belarus. Jagiellonia aren’t good at scoring from set pieces but Irtysh are so again, I think they’ll set out to nullify their hosts. Irtysh do have artificial turf, something Jagiellonia never play on so there is a home advantage here. However, I’m not touching the 1×2 market here whatsoever – no value. Under 2.5 goals, though – that’s at 4/5 and that appeals to me a lot here with the above in mind.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional game
Milsami Orhei vs Dinamo Tbilisi – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Milsami Orhei striker Boghiu has said before this game that he hopes that they fight well but expects them to lose. That pretty much surmises what their fans think of this game, too. They’re newcomers to the European scene, Milsami Orhei. They have some financial clout but still aren’t what I would call a giant in Moldova – that title is reserved for Sheriff Tiraspol and Dacia Chisinau nowadays, although Zimbru Chisinau are never far away. Milsami can generally hold their own domestically but they look like a fish out of water in Europe. They were utterly dominated in Georgia by experienced Dinamo Tbilisi, who enjoyed the lion’s share of the possession, shots, corners etc. and I expect more of the same here today. The hosts will probably show a tad more adventure and tenacity as they play for pride but Dinamo Tbilisi are no mugs; they’re always playing European football and have some good players to boot. Big Sandro Iashvili up front, goalkeeper Loria, and potent Koshkadze in midfield, not to mention emerging youngster Lekvtadze. They’ll cause problems for their hosts but as I don’t see the hosts abandoning their atypical defensive shape excessively today, I don’t see many goals coming in this game. Dinamo won the first game 2-0; that’s a comfortable enough lead to take into this game against inexperienced Milsami Orhei and subsequently, under 2.5 goals at 3/4 looks good to me.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Fola Esch vs Elfsborg Boras – under 3.5 goals at 5/6.
Far too many people write off Luxembourgian sides and it’s quite puzzling to see, to be quite honest. Sure, you can’t name many of their players/teams but that doesn’t mean they’re shit, as most people wrongly assume. Indeed, if you pay attention to European football en mass then you’ll see just how much Luxembourgian football has improved, both on the European scene and on the international scene. Don’t get me wrong here – we’re not going to see the likes of Dudelange in the UEFA Champions League Group Stages. However, it’s worth noting the improvements that have been made and it’s quite factual that Luxembourgian sides are harder to beat nowadays. Indeed, it’s Swedish sides that tend to encounter that stubborn resistance more than most, too. Here are some examples of sides from around Europe struggling against Luxembourgian opponents (sometimes in redundant games) despite being expected to win easily:
July 2010 – AIK Solna 1 Jeunesse d’Esch 0
July 2010 – Jeunesse d’Esch 0 AIK Solna 0
July 2010 – CS Grevenmacher 3 Dundalk 3
July 2010 – Dundalk 2 CS Grevenmacher 1
July 2010 – Randers 6 Dudelange 1
July 2010 – Dudelange 2 Randers 1
July 2010 – Differdange 3 Spartak Subotica 3
July 2010 – Spartak Subotica 2 Differdange 0
Do you notice anything unusual in all of these games? I’ll tell you – no Luxembourgian side competing in European football last year lost at home. Do you see what I mean now about keeping an eye on improving sides? I’m not saying this statistic will last forever; all I’m saying is be very cautious because a lot of people are seduced by short odds and in games like these, they’re just not merited – there really isn’t as much between the Luxembourgian and Swedish leagues nowadays as people seem to think.
I wouldn’t deny for a minute that Elfsborg Boras are the better team with better players, though – that I simply wouldn’t be stupid enough to even attempt to argue. However, what I would say is that Elfsborg Boras’ dominance always seems to be on artificial turf; it rarely comes away from home on natural turf. They won the first leg 4-0; a low-scoring away win or draw would suit them just fine here, especially with another big game against Orebro looming at weekend. The hosts will work hard to save pride here and the visitors don’t have anything to gain or lose by nullifying them here. I therefore have to view odds of 5/6 on going under 3.5 goals as very tempting indeed here.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at 5/6.
Nomme Kalju vs FC Honka Espoo – away win at 9/10.
Dum-de-dum-dooooo…I think it’s time to back Honka again.
Yep. Well, they dominated Nomme Kalju in Finland to a degree I didn’t expect them to but failed to find the net. I like Nomme Kalju and their dramatic improvement over the last twelve months but they’re still not quite at the level required to defeat teams like Honka, in my view. Yeah, they can keep them out sometimes but there’s nothing more than that – Honka are still better than they are and if Savage and/or Dudu takes their chances tonight then Honka really should win as Nomme Kalju would have to leave their defensive stance in search of goals and get destroyed on the counter-attack.
My big concern is which Honka shows up. Sometimes they’ve been brilliant and sometimes they’ve been frustrating so far this season. They’re a very talented attacking outfit, however, so I rate their chances here. Let’s also consider that the game is not being played at the Hiiu Stadion in Tallinn. No, it’s being played at Le Coq Arena, which is Flora Tallinn’s ground, so the home advantage is lessened here. Honka have their own arena too, so playing in one is no great problem for them.
With the above in mind, I think 9/10 on the away win is generous enough to take a slice of today. I don’t see the hosts causing as many problems as they could for Honka due to their naturally defensive nature but I do see Honka scoring at least once so the away win interests me here.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win at 9/10.