TFT Issue 152!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Kecskemeti TE vs Fehervar – over 3.5 goals at 6/5.
First of all, this game is being played at Kecskemeti’s home ground, not at a neutral venue as you might imagine that Super Cup Final would be. That immediately means that Fehervar being at evens to win here looks a bit short to me – 4/5 on laying Fehervar does whet my appetite somewhat.
However, my main bet by far is over 3.5 goals in this one. Kecskemeti are a very attack-minded team, primarily because they find defending impossible. They are atrocious at the back last season and nothing has changed over the summer to convince me that they’ll be any different this season. Indeed, they seemed more focused on bringing in more attacking players to bolster what is already a very dangerous attack, which is hilarious but also pleasing as I like to see sides that just attack – it’s the old-fashioned way, after all!
Considering that Kecskemeti were only six points away from relegation last season, the fact that only three sides (Debreceni VSC and eventual Soproni Liga top two Fehervar and Paksi SE) outscored them last season is pretty incredible. The side cannot defend for shit but they certainly know how to attack, create chances, and score them.
Fehervar are the better team but football isn’t always that simple, is it? Over the summer, Fehervar somewhat amazingly appointed ex-Portugal international Paulo Sousa as boss. His first move was to make the side more European by bringing in three Spaniards – ex-Tenerife defender Hector Sanchez, ex-Espanyol defender Alvaro Brachi, and ex-Barcelona midfielder Walter Fernandez from Gimnastic de Tarragona. To think that Fehervar will now most likely play a much more attacking game from the back and lose their reliable defence is somewhat terrifying because it means I don’t rate anyone as a dead cert in Hungary any more! Sousa himself tends to be a fairly defensive manager but to change this defence leaves question marks, in my view. Fehervar also have a very strong attack, much like their hosts, and their motivation couldn’t be higher with Kecskemeti having beaten them in the Magyar Kupa Final at the end of last season to be in the Super Cup Final today! As Soproni Liga champions, you have to expect Fehervar to play like champions here but they won’t find it easy, in my view.
It’s worth noting that four out of the last five meetings between these two sides have all cleared 3.5 goals with the one exception ending 2-0. If these two sides were to play out a goalless draw then I’m fairly sure that the world would end. It’s definitely not one for the 1×2 market here, other than perhaps to try 1X as Kecskemeti are actually at home, but over 3.5 goals at 6/5 really appeals to me with the above in mind.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 6/5.
Additional games
HJK Helsinki vs Inter Turku – Inter Turku to win with +1 asian handicap at 4/5.
Approach this one with real caution today, guys – it’s a dicey one! I like it very much, however.
I can’t count the number of times that I’ve backed HJK in the last few months because they’ve been so good but I think we may see the odd change in form in the near future. The reasoning is European football, of course – what else?
HJK are the strongest side in Finland and I’ve mentioned before that they have two squads capable of winning the Veikkausliiga, which I hold true to. However, Inter Turku are currently the second best team in Finland and one of a handful of sides that can cause problems for HJK in Helsinki. With HJK’s form and full team I’d fancy them to play Inter off the park here, just as they did in their 1-0 win. However, with a trip to Wales looming large next week in the UEFA European Champions League, I’m not convinced they’ll play their first-team here.
I especially think that the above is likely because this is HJK’s third game in ten days. They’ve been out west in Anjalankoski, over to central Finland to face KuPS, back down to Helsinki to host Inter, and then they’re off to Wales to face Bangor City. If ever there was a time for rotation then it’s now.
With that in mind, I think Inter’s first string could do well here. HJK weren’t at their best during their 2-4 win at KuPS Kuopio; the hosts did better than the scoreline suggested but were undone by poor defending, as usual. Inter, on the other hand, were very impressive during their win at Honka Espoo and although their defence needs some work too, I like Dragtsma’s new approach and the attacking options he now has, especially with Furuholm in glistening form.
Lastly, the news that HJK’s converted playmaker Bah may be leaving the club is bad news. They don’t have a replacement for him, quality-wise, irrespective of where he’s fielded. All in all, I think we have a HJK side that could come unstuck here as they do prioritise European football and Finnish sides have struggled with Welsh sides before. For me, there’s value on Inter Turku winning this game with a +1 asian handicap at 4/5.
Verdict: Inter Turku to win with a +1 asian handicap at 4/5.