TFT Issue 159!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Metalurg Donetsk vs Shakhtar Donetsk – away win to nil at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Donestk derby in the Ukrainian Premier League between Metalurg Donetsk and reigning champions Shakhtar Donetsk.
The hosts have had their fair share of the money over the past few years but have continually disappointed with the results of it. From my point of view, last year was their worst, howveer. I’ve never seen them looking so lethargic and utterly incapable in front of goal. They’ve brought in a few new players over the summer to help bolster their floundering attack but they still don’t have a natural striker and it’s causing big, big problems for them. I genuinely don’t know what they hope to achieve with such an approach. Maybe they’ll score points off lesser sides in narrow wins and rely on Checher’s ability to hold the defence together to keep the bigger teams at bay but I cannot see another way forward for Metalurg. They’re a decent side, occasionally quite good at knocking the ball around, but this side doesn’t concern me in attack – not just against Shakhtar, but against the vast majority of Ukrainian sides – so I’d be surprised to see them score here today.
That said, if ever there was a time to score against Shakhtar, it’s today. Shakhtar still miss defensive rock Chygrynskiy, whom I believe is recovering from surgery. Romanian left-back Rat misses out too, so two out of Shakhtar’s back four are absent today. Chygrynskiy is a top, top defender and they can concede against most sides if he’s not on the field but against Metalurg’s frustratingly poor attack, I’m perhaps not as concerned as I should be today. Shakhtar are the Ukrainian equivilant of Barcelona, which helps in the sense that sides have to get the ball off them before they do damage. Shakhtar miss Jadson, Stepanenko, Patrick, and Moreno here but they’ve got an awful lot of depth in attack so they should be able to replace those four fairly easily, although I do rate Jadson highly, it has to be said. Shakhtar are a very good attacking side, however, and although I’d prefer them to have more depth in defence, they’re still arguably the best side in Ukraine and that really should show today.
The odds are ridiculously short on the away win for a derby, however, so let’s avoid that one entirely. Shakhtar winning without conceding really appeals to me here, though. Metalurg don’t convince me in front of goal and given that Metalurg have failed to score against Shakhtar for three consecutive league meetings and have failed to score in four out of their last five home games against Shakhtar, I think backing the superior visitors to win this one without conceding is good value at 9/10.
Team news – Shakhtar Donetsk miss Chygrynskiy, Rat, Jadson, Moreno, Patrick, and Stepanenko.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to win to nil at 9/10.
Additional games
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn – lay Flora Tallinn at 4/5.
Unless Trans Narva are up to their usual match-fixing tricks then these odds just don’t make sense.
Flora Tallinn are the best side in Estonia right now – I think we’re all agreed there. Is the gap big enough to warrant 4/5 on the away win though? Not for my money, especially with Post leaving a while ago and now goalkeeper Leemits having left too, leaving unstable Pedok between the posts. Flora Tallinn additionally had a tough mid-week game in the Republic of Ireland where they lost 1-0 at Shamrock Rovers in a hard-fought game which they looked tired in as their hosts simply looked physically stronger than Flora did. Additionally, Flora have the return leg to prepare for next week so they may rotate a few players here. Add that information to a fairly rough artificial pitch in Narva against a host that doesn’t concede goals often and you can see why I don’t think Flora merit these odds today.
I expect a similar type of game here to the one that was played back in April. Flora won the game 0-2 on the day but that was thanks to two late goals. I don’t think they have the stamina to do that in this game after their mid-week fixture and I’ll be surprised if they play their first-team, too. Therefore, laying Flora Tallinn at 4/5 is my call here.
Verdict: Lay Flora Tallinn at 4/5.
Viljandi vs Flora Paide – home win at 11/10.
Viljandi will no doubt feel aggrieved at losing against Maag Tammeka Tartu last match as their overall performance didn’t merit that outcome. Therefore, I don’t think they’ll be too demoralised today as good performances will eventually lead to good results, one way or another. It’s if they’re playing badly that they have to worry!
Viljandi have gone about their business fairly well at home this season with all the good sides (barring Maag Tammeka Tartu’s fortuitous win) winning or drawing here and anyone that Viljandi can compete with having lost here. The hosts do well due to their stubborn defence and you’ll no doubt notice that they don’t ship many at home. Their problem is usually scoring enough to win games but if they get a lead, they tend to hold it if the opponent is right!
Happily, Flora Paide look the right opponent today! They’ve sold three instrumental players lately – Reinsoo, Sillaste, and Kalda. Kalda was one of their best and most experienced strikres whereas Reinsoo and Sillaste were integral parts of the Flora Paide midfield. You can see what damage it’s done them with their 0-5 defeat against Nomme Kalju in the last round of Meistriliiga games. True enough, Nomme Kalju are the better side and I’d have been surprised had they not won it but they’d just come off the back of an exhausting mid-week game with FC Honka Espoo in the UEFA Europa League and add to that that they’re not a great goalscoring side – they take their chances and defend their leads. Then you’ll see why the 0-5 win reflects the sales of Flora Paide rather than the undeniable superiority of their opponents. They signed Stepanjan and Verendi to provide some cover but it’s going to take time to integrate them and given that a club like Flora Paide operates solely as a unit because they don’t have the individual ability to do otherwise, those sales are really going to do them damage for the next few weeks at least, in my view.
Flora Paide have scored three goals in their last seven Meistriliiga away games and given that two came against doomed Ajax Lasnamae, I wouldn’t read much into their “firepower” at all. Hell, with those departed players, I’ll be surprised to see them getting near the target with shots from range, let alone actual chances! Viljandi have bagged six goals in their last three home games and even though they’re clearly not at their best right now, they should still have more than enough to make 11/10 on the home win today look a real bargain.
Verdict: Viljandi to win at 11/10.