TFT Issue 163
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Please read this before viewing the tips, guys. Lately, there have been an awful lot of people saying they cannot log in. However, each time the problem has proven to be the user not logging in. Whereas I can appreciate one or two of these instances, myself and Toby simply don’t have time to deal with all of these persistent and frankly unnecessary enquiries every day. So please make sure you are logged in before trying to view each post or you will not be able to. If there is a problem after that then contact myself or Toby. Additionally, if you cannot see a new issue in the list then there is no issue – we don’t hide issues, guys! They’re either there or they’re not. If you can’t view them then you’re not logged in or you’re not a member, the latter of which could mean your membership has expired. So please make sure you’re logged in, guys! Thanks for your continued help and support :)
Featured game
Levadia Tallinn vs Differdange 03 – under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in Estonia between Levadia Tallinn and Luxembourgian outfit Differdange 03. The first leg ended 0-0 so there’s still everything to play for here.
First of all, this game is being played at Le Coq Arena, which is Flora Tallinn’s ground, not Levadia Tallinn’s. This isn’t exactly unfamiliar territory for them, though – they play European football pretty much every year. However, it’s still not the same as a home game and that may aid their opponents.
The most notable points about this game are that Levadia are not good enough to merit 1/4 odds against anyone outside of Estonia, they lost most of their good players pre-season, and they were not particularly impressive during the first leg. Due to selling the likes of Neemelo pre-season, Levadia’s attack is young and largely ineffectual. Their attackers were effectively bullied by Differdange in the first leg and I expect more of the same here. Levadia still have some threats like Nahk and Leitan, for example, and could even win the game. However, there’s no way on earth they’re worthy of being 1/4 to win this game today considering that the two sides are largely equal. I can’t deny that taking Differdange +1.5 or laying Levadia Tallinn at 3/1 appeal to me a lot but I’m going to make under 2.5 goals my main call at 5/4 as neither side has enough creativity nor firepower to be a constant threat in this game, in my view. These odds would have been more accurate last season when Levadia did have a side that could cause shocks but this side doesn’t have that ability. For me, under 2.5 goals is very generously priced at 5/4.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Additional games
Dundee United vs Slask Wroclaw – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
The first leg of this tie ended 1-0 to Polish outfit Slask Wroclaw and Dundee United could perhaps feel a bit aggrieved that they didn’t equalise with Goodwillie’s shot being rather unlucky, it has to be said, especially given how many players Dundee were missing for that game. They’ve got some back for this encounter though, like Severin in midfield, for example. However, they won’t have the luxury of counter-attacking Slask here because knowing Lenczyk, I’m very confident that Slask will go 4-5-1 and sit deep. They can’t possibly counter-attack today either way with star striker Diaz out for the game and new signing Voskamp a doubt for this game too. Lenczyk’s team will almost certainly sit deep and work hard – we saw it often enough in the Ekstraklasa last season. Hard as it was, Slask did the job in the first leg; keep a clean sheet and they’re through. Dundee United are wary of Slask, though – they know Slask are better on counters than in general attack so they’ve stated they’ll try to play a more patient game and avoid conceding an early goal. All of this and a game between two pretty well matched sides makes me think under 2.5 goals is a good bet at 4/5, especially with Argentinian hitman Diaz missing for Slask.
Team news – Dundee United miss Robertson and have doubts over Swanson whereas Slask Wroclaw miss Diaz and have doubts over Voskamp.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Westerlo vs TPS Turku – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
This is risky because Westerlo have had problems with strikers of late but I still fancy it an awful lot because of TPS Turku.
Westerlo at least have a partially fit Liliu to utilise in attack today, which will help them out with their absences. Marcao is also available but Westerlo are not at 100% strength right now, that’s for sure. Despite missing all their strikers for the reversal of this fixture in Finland though, Westerlo still won 0-1 and looked comfortable doing it. TPS Turku were completely dominated in the first-half and looked like a fish out of water. They improved in the second-half but not enough to concern me. It’s strange how one player can affect them so badly, really. TPS’ form took a nosedive ever since Kolehmainen got sent off and banned for a few games because without their talented playmaker, TPS Turku have struggled to consistently create chances and their squad’s cohesion has suffered too, which isn’t a great surprise as many of them are still new to each other.
The big factor for me here is that TPS Turku’s defence is weak, however. They’re poor positionally and concede stupid goals domestically, which is something that I expect to see transferred into their European form. I rate TPS’ strikers highly; Westerlo will have to be wary of them. However, Westerlo are good enough to control them unless Aaritalo shows up properly here – then we might have problems. However, Westerlo will monopolise possession here and they do have better players than TPS. TPS’ defence is very vulnerable and I think that even a fairly average Westerlo side can score at least twice here. There’s obviously a risk element in this bet but the -1.5 handicap looks generous at 11/10, to be honest – far, far worse sides than Westerlo have scored a couple of goals against TPS Turku this season! Therefore, I think this one is worth a punt here.
Team news – Westerlo have doubts over Liliu.
Verdict: Westerlo to beat the -1.5 handicap at 11/10.