TFT Issue 170!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby Solvesborg – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan match between Kalmar FF and Mjallby Solvesborg. The hosts have done well this season whereas their opponents have struggled and I expect more of the same from both, really.
So, Kalmar go on a run of three consecutive defeats and the bookies start giving them odds of around 4/6 or 4/7 to beat one of the worst sides in the Allsvenskan. Can I get a “lol”?!
Firstly, the only sides to have better home records than Kalmar FF tend to be sides with artficial turf (e.g. Elfsborg Boras) or sides that are better than they are (e.g. Helsingborg, and occasionally Malmo FF when they feel like it). Kalmar are arguably better than the remainder of the Allsvenskan – only at home, though. Why Kalmar are so horrendous away from home in the Allsvenskan is up there with the Bermuda Triangle and suchlike. However, at home, they’re a dominant force and seven wins in nine home games backs that up perfectly.
So who have they been struggling against lately? Well, they lost at home to reigning champions Helsingborg – can’t argue with that. They lost 2-1 at a rejuvenated and frankly dangerous AIK Solna – can’t argue with that. They also lost 3-2 at Trelleborg, who are notoriously good at being underdogs although it still took a red card for Kalmar goalkeeper Wasta to give them that win. Notice anything about these defeats? Well, aside from that they’re all really rather logical, you have to note that Kalmar have scored in all of them – four goals, in fact. That’s because Kalmar are a very good goalscoring side, especially at home where they average scoring nearly two goals per game. Defensively, they’re not the best – far from it. Their goalscoring prowess usually steers them to wins, however. It’s their Brazilian contingent that tends to guide them to victory with Daniel Sobralense, Ricardo Santos, and Daniel Mendes tending to be the danger men. They’ve recently added Pedro Henrique to that list too, although he won’t be playing today. So, yeah – Kalmar are a damn good side, especially at home, and they really should win this one easily.
So why take the -1 Asian Handicap here? Kalmar have only beaten it twice at home this season due to some abject defending. Well, a lot of my confidence comes from how bad Mjallby Solvesborg are. I mean, you can look at their 5-1 win at home against crappy Gefle last match and consider them to be rejuvenated. I daresay to a certain degree that they must be more confident because of it. However, rest assured that the defeat came about from Gefle defending terribly, not Mjallby Solvesborg suddenly discovering a magical formula that turns their average/poor players into good players.
Mjallby have lost seven out of nine on the road this season with four of them being by two goals or more. They used to be tight at the back after they’d just been promoted but the weariness of a long season is dragging them down and they look rather vulnerable at the present time. I suppose some of that must be credited to the sale of the club’s star El Kabir, who joined Cagliari at the end of June. He was their best goalscorer and it’s no coincidence at all that they’ve only scored in two out of four games since he left and they’ve yet to register a goal away from home in that time. They’ve loaned promising striker Eriksson from IFK Goteborg to replace him but it’s not really a good solution because they’re short on quality and Eriksson is somewhat short on experience, talented though he is. Marcus Ekenberg has been around a while; the veteran striker knows the score and can be dangerous on his day. The club are still horribly short on attacking power, however, and that’s something that could and should cost them against potent Kalmar today.
Lastly, Tobias Grahn is suspended for this game. It’s no surprise, I know – I’d love to know how many times he’s missed a game through suspension because he’s a fucking lunatic. However, he’s a good player and rather essential in the Mjallby team as a result. Without him, they lose a great deal of tenacity and overall presence in midfield and that will not help them against superior Kalmar FF today.
I’m probably going to eat my arm if Kalmar don’t at least win this game today, which is where the insurance of the -1 Asian Handicap comes in handy. That way, if Kalmar do commit suicide at the back and concede goals, you should still get your money back. However, in all honesty, I don’t expect Mjallby to score here and I do expect them to concede at least twice against a very good home side. Therefore, I see value in the home win with a -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Team news – Kalmar FF miss Arajuuri, Nouri, and Henrique whereas Mjallby Solvesborg miss Grahn.
Verdict: Kalmar FF to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Additional games
AC Oulu vs PoPa Pori – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Well, it’s time to start backing AC Oulu again! Yes, star striker Stafsula has returned from his brother’s wedding in Albania and made his first appearance in AC Oulu’s 0-1 loss against KPV Kokkola. You probably won’t be surprised to learn that AC Oulu haven’t won a game in Stafsula’s absence. He’s already bagged seven goals in ten games and is definitely doing a good job of filling the void left by towering Canadian hitman Jonke, who is of course now with Inter Turku.
In Stafsula’s first game back, he was still finding his feet but it has to be noted that AC Oulu completely destroyed KPV Kokkola without finding the net with the visitors taking virtually their only chance of the game. I’m expecting more from the imposing Albanian in this game, however, and he has the perfect platform on which to showcase his ability.
Yes, arguably the best side in the league today are hosting defensively inept PoPa Pori. I like PoPa and they do have an attacking threat but their defending is nothing short of woeful. You can read what you will into their three wins from their last four games and the potential effect of their new manager but I’ll still make the point that PoPa have played crap sides along the way. The only good side they faced during that four-game run was KooTeePee Kotka at home, which they lost 1-2. Away from home, PoPa have kept one clean sheet this season and the fact that only bottom club FC Espoo has shipped more than they have in the Ykkonen this season must be of great concern to them.
Again, you can look at PoPa’s away form and say “Hey, they’ve only lost 50% of their away games – they’re not that bad!” or you can look at it in the light it should be viewed in – they’ve only faced two good sides away from home this season and they’ve been crushed each time, losing 3-0 against PK-35 Helsinki and 3-1 against Viikingit Helsinki. This is yet another opponent that is at least one or two classes above PoPa Pori and I fully expect that to show by the final whistle.
I’ve taken the -1 Asian Handicap here as insurance on the basis that Stafsula may not be 100% match fit and also because PoPa Pori do have some Veikkausliiga-quality players ala Dema – well, just Dema, to be honest. I still fancy AC Oulu to drub them but my call allows for the occasional slip-up as I don’t see AC Oulu doing anything but winning this game – comfortably, too!
Team news – PoPa Pori miss Liespuu and Lomski.
Verdict: AC Oulu to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.