TFT Issue 172!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Partizan Belgrade vs Racing Genk – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Serbia between heavyweights Partizan Belgrade and newcomers Racing Genk of Belgium. The first leg surprised everyone with Partizan controlling the game against the odds but falling flat on their faces as they demonstrated a lack of composure which could affect them today if they’re not careful.
Partizan’s defence still requires work, first of all, and this game is more likely to show it than their highly defensive display in Belgium did. Partizan have to attack here and their somewhat unfamiliar defence will have a hard job coping with the pace and ability of this young Genk side. Additionally, they’ve decided that Tomic will replace Babovic, who is a more offensive midfielder as Partizan are going to be attacking in this game. Hell, there’s also talk of talented youngsters Ninkovic and Markovic, who are 16 and 17 respectively, featuring in this game as they seek to shock Genk because let’s face it – they didn’t do a lot of damage in the first leg when you compare the result to their display. Partizan could welcome back star striker Diarra and boy do they need him – their finishing has been woeful lately! Partizan are a very experienced side and with a passionate Belgrade crowd behind them, they’re not a side to underestimate. However, if they’re attacking with their notoriously slow midfield then they’re going to get burned on counter-attacks.
The Partizan tactics do make sense, though. Genk’s weakness is defending, to be fair. However, they’re absolutely deadly on the counter-attack with ever-impressive De Bruyne creating chances for Vossen and Barda with Ogunjimi always a threat too. Genk didn’t have much scope for showcasing their abilities in the first leg; they looked nervous and struggled to break through Partizan. However, they were impressive at weekend and they should bring that momentum into this game. They have the luxury of counter-attacking here, which they love to do. Genk are inexperienced and maybe this hostile atmosphere will get to them so them conceding here wouldn’t be a great surprise at all. However, I think they’re going to expose Partizan’s problems in defence a lot more in this game than they did in the first leg and may even surprise the home fans with a win here.
Either way, I see no value in the 1×2 market here – too many variants can affect this one. However, over 2.5 goals looks very generous at 9/10, especially with Genk quite possibly missing both full-backs instead of just one here.
Team news – Partizan Belgrade miss Babovic and Jovancic whereas Racing Genk miss Anele and Camus whislt having doubts over Pudil.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional game
Dinamo Zagreb vs HJK Helsinki – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
I like HJK Helsinki a lot but I think the dream ends here. Better sides than they are have been felled at the Maksimir and if Dinamo show up then they’ll win this one with some ease. Dinamo played surprisingly well on artificial turf in Helsinki and won 1-2. Now HJK have to attack away from home and generally speaking, they’re not great away from home, especially in Europe. The HJK players have announced they will try to attack and who can blame them? They’ve surpassed their own expectations and they have nothing to lose here. However, the ever-impressive Sammir will be in pole position to rip HJK apart here if they do that and I can see a decent possibility of there being quite a few goals, contrary to Dinamo’s usual defensive home style. I just don’t think HJK have the ability to cut it at this level as they demonstrated in the first leg – they tried to rush and press Dinamo but Dinamo still won. For me, experienced Dinamo Zagreb will control this one and should at the very least win the game, hence the insurance of the Asian Handicap. Dinamo winning by two goals or more looks probably tonight, though – HJK are a little out of their depth, I feel.
Verdict: Dinamo Zagreb to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.