TFT Issue 176!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Levski Sofia vs Slavia Sofia – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is yet another Sofia derby although this time between Levski and Slavia. The last four meetings between these two clubs have gone over 2.5 goals and I think this one will too.
Levski Sofia are considered to be the better of these two sides and I’d agree with that. I mean, league finishes in the A PFG and appearances in Europe along can tell you that, not to mention history too! Last season, I wouldn’t have batted an eyelid at odds of around 1/5 on Levski to beat Slavia, to be honest. However, this season I struggle to see how they can earn those odds.
You see, Levski lost a lot of players over the past twelve months and although that’s not an unusual occurence for a Bulgarian club, some of those departures have been particularly hefty although only two stand out as being huge losses for me. The first was attacking midfielder Joaozinho, who left a while ago to play in Russia with FK Krasnodar. That left the impetus on Macedonian star Tasevski to play the playmaking role. The problem is that Levski deployed a 4-5-1 with two attacking midfielders to support Dembele up front and without Joaozinho, that formation wasn’t as effective. They still ran Litex Lovech close for the title, however, but came a close second. The second notable departure was big Dembele up front. This guy was a revelation for Levski Sofia, who had struggled to find a proper target man for some time until he arrived. His arrival saw them score goals freely and become a very dangerous side again. However, whenever he missed games last season, Levski Sofia generally struggled and I expect that to happen a lot more frequently this season now that he’s signed for SC Freiburg in Germany. Levski did bring in Dutch striker Ars to replace him but the correlation hasn’t been there between him and the rest of the team yet so Levski aren’t quite right yet. Indeed, you could even say they were struggling to score goals.
So why over 2.5 goals today? Well, the acquisition of able Spanish attacking midfielder Toni Calvo has aided their attacking play and Levski are still the better side so they should register at least one goal here. As far as the season goes, I have my doubts over Levski Sofia without Dembele. They can still score the odd goal with the opportune moment, though.
My confidence in this tip today stems largely from the absentees in the game. You see, Levski Sofia have been playing UEFA Europa League games with Spartak Trnava of Slovakia and lost in Slovakia last week on penalties after taking their Slovak opponents to extra-time. That makes Levski Sofia tired here, logically speaking. Additionally, they’ve suffered a few casualties of late and find themselves extremely short on defenders. They miss essential defenders Miliev and Ivanov, not to mention back-up defender Stanchev, so this leaves gaping holes in their defence, which is never good! Spartak Trnava didn’t have any problems scoring against them so why not local rivals Slavia Sofia too?
Slavia Sofia aren’t a particularly good side themselves but new boss Kushev has reportedly got his players fired up and playing with confidence, which is useful. They’re not as good as Levski, of course, but they are a decent A PFG side – well, when they’re not busy fixing games, that is. What I like about their new boss Kushev is that he brings a fighting spirit to this team because that’s exactly how he was as a player. You may recall him playing as the target man for Russia’s Amkar Perm’ a few years ago. His style was to be big, physical, and tenacious and that’s exactly what I expect from his team.
Slavia lke to be the underdogs because they’re not a big club, unlike their more illustrious local rivals. This tag suits them and I think they’ll work really hard against Levski today as a result. After all, it is a derby! They’ve got good enough players to capitalise on Levski’s tiredness and absentees, too. However, they do have problems of their own with captain Dyakov absent at the back. Zhelev is an adequate replacement and the ex-Litex Lovech centre-back would love to frustrate his old club’s bitter rivals Levski today. However, it does leave a gap and Levski are good at exploiting gaps, especially Tasevski, so there should be goals at both ends, realistically.
Therefore, over 2.5 goals looks a good value bet today at 5/6. The 1×2 market has zero interest for me because Levski don’t deserve to be shorter than 2/5 by my reckoning and Slavia are a bit of an unknown factor right now. If you feel lucky then you try small stakes on laying Levski Sofia or giving Slavia Sofia a head start. However, the best option for me is going over 2.5 goals with both sides missing key defenders today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Team news
Bulgarian A PFG:
Levski Sofia – Miliev, Ivanov, Stanchev, and Ognyanov are absent. Youngster Georgiev is expected to start to help fill the defensive void.
Slavia Sofia – Dyakov is absent.
Norwegian Elitserien:
Start Kristiansand – Oladapo, Stokkelien, Pepa, and Madsen are absent.
Haugesund – Maeland, Savolainen, and Steinsland are absent. There are doubts over Vage Nilsen, Bangura, and Andreasson.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Korona Kielce – Michalek is absent.
Ruch Chorzow – Kwiatkowski and Kolodziejski are absent.