TFT Issue 178!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
France vs Chile – home win at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the international friendly in France between France and South American outfit Chile.
France have improved a lot under Blanc, unsurprisingly. The disciplined tactician has a way of making of everything work his way and that usually means that his sides win or at the very least avoid defeat. Blanc does not play adventurous football; he plays efficient football. His sides defend and attack as a unit, take their chances, and hold them. Therefore, I’d never endorse handicapping France against anyone but I would always look to under 2.5 goals, outright wins, or win-to-nil bets.
My interest in today’s game is France merely winning the encounter. As I mentioned above, they’ve impressed me since Blanc took over and although their firepower looks a little weak sometimes, they’re still a solid unit and they do make chances. Evra’s absence is a blow at left-back, as is Ribery’s on the flank. Gourcuff will be missed as a playmaker too, I daresay. Do France have replacements though? I wouldn’t say they have any as good as Ribery or Evra but they do have makeshift players good enough for games like this, yes. The likes of Benzema are more than capable of making something happen here and I expect the likes of him to be the eventual difference between the two sides tonight.
You see, where France have the upper hand is in front of goal. I like Chile’s players, particularly their midfielders – they can look amazing on the ball sometimes. However, the one problem they’ve had ever since Zamorano and Salas hung up their boots is to find a natural striker. In my opinion, they only have one at the present time and that’s Humberto Suazo, who is decent without being anything special. The problem is that he’s not travelled to France for this game so Chile have quite a few problems here. It’s good to have a capable midfield who keep the ball well but what are they going to do with it? It’s movement that breaks up this solid French defence and Chile don’t have enough of it, to be honest. Talented Alexis Sanchez can always make something happen on the left flank, of course, but there’s little else that concerns me here. Chile have brought an experienced squad, it’s true, and playmaker Valdivia is quite excellent when he wishes to be. However, not only is there no natural striker but pacey Gonzalez, hard man Maldonado, and another gifted playmaker Fernandez are all absent here, as is fairly regular midfielder Millar. Even Chile’s strongest area has taken blows ahead of this game and I don’t think they’ve got enough to hold France here.
I expect a tight game here with the above in mind so under 2.5 goals does interest me. However, I’d be mad to overlook France winning this one at 5/6 with such a good manager in charge, especially as Chile’s best manager Bielsa is no longer there – that really does damage Chile’s game. Chile have brought an experienced team so it may take a while but France really should win this one in the end at good odds.
Verdict: France to win at 5/6.
Additional games
Lithuania vs Armenia – lay Lithuania at 4/5.
How on earth are Lithuania 11/10 to win this one? Seriously? This is not five years ago when they had a damn good team and a good manager!
Lithuania have been disappointing for a couple of years now, in my view. They occasionally produce an inspired display but usually against big teams. Against smaller teams, motivation appears to be a big problem for them and with so many names out for this game, it may well be a problem again.
First of all, vice-captain Stankevicius is out. His long throws are a powerful weapon of Lithuania’s but they’ll miss his experience and organisation at the back more than anything. Captain Danilevicius is also out. The big frontman is not in the squad, which is another blow. Semberas will take the captain’s armband for this game and he’s a good and experienced player but still – you want your captain or his deputy in each game! Let’s see – who else is out? Lots of strikers – big Velicka, impressive Sernas, well-travelled Poskus – they’re all missing. Most of Lithuania’s defence is out with Zvirgzdauskas and Dedura joining Stankevicius in being out of the team. Lithuania are very short of experience in this team, especially at the back, and they look extremely lightweight in attack so I can’t take them seriously here.
Loyal readers know how much I rate Armenia and that hasn’t changed here. They lost 3-1 at Russia in their last game but it was a lot closer than the scoreline suggested. This side still has a lot to learn, of course, but they play good football and score goals, which makes them dangerous. Their biggest problem today is defence as they’re rather inexperienced themselves at the back. Experienced Berezovskiy has not travelled so the FK Khimki goalkeeper will not be there to guide their inexperienced defence. Additionally, there’s no Arakelyan or Aleksanyan, not to mention important defender Arzumanyan from Jagiellonia Bialystok. Fortuitously, captain and leader of the team Hovsepyan is in the squad and his experience will be essential here.
It’s Armenia’s attack more than their defence that interets me, however. A lot of you will know Shakhtar Donetsk Mkhitaryan, who is argualy the best Armenian footballer for many years now. Some of you may have seen Movsisyan in action in the Russian league too, as you may have done with ex-AFC Ajax Amsterdam hitman Manucharyan. They’re all good and dangerous players. The remainder of their attacking nucleus comes from a cluster of Metalurg Donetsk players ala Ghazaryan, Pizzelli, and Mkrtchyan. I don’t know why Metalurg Donetsk have become a portal to European football for Armenian players over the past few years (even Shakhtar’s midfield sensation came from Metalurg Donetsk!) but it’s benefiting Armenia’s national team immensely and they look very dangerous in attack as a result.
Armenia have only failed to score in two out of their last nine games now, one of which was an undeserved 0-1 defeat against the Republic of Ireland in which they squandered some good chances. The other was a deserved 0-0 draw with Russia as neither side wanted to lose. Aside from that, Armenia have bagged goals against Spain, Belgium, Russia, Republic of Macedonia, Georgia, and Slovakia so please don’t underestimate these guys – they know how to break through defences.
Armenia may concede here as they’re away and have a largely inexperienced defence but I’ll be surprised if Lithuania score more than they do. Armenia’s attack is good and therefore laying Lithuania at 4/5 looks a bit of a steal to me.
Verdict: Lay Lithuania at 4/5.
Team news
Belgium – Defour, Hazard, Miralles, De Sutter, Dembele, Ciman, and Vanden Borre are absent.
Bulgaria – Trifonov, Gadjev, Miliev, and Mihailov are absent.
Croatia – Jelavic and Badelj are absent.
Czech Republic – No absentees.
Czech Republic U21 – Frydrych is absent.
Estonia – Rahn, Meerits, and Stepanov are absent.
Finland – Pasanen, A.Eremenko, Halsti, Lehtovaara, Lampi, Nyman, Sjolund, Kolkka, Porokara, Litmanen, and Roiha are absent.
Greece – No absences
Greece U21 – Gentsoglou is absent.
Hungary – Nemeth, Szabics, Gera, Vanczak, Stieber, Tozser, and Juhasz are absent. Lazar is a doubt.
Italy – Toni and Santon are absent.
Lithuania – Stankevicius, Arlauskis, Zvirgzdauskas, Dedura, Pilibaitis, Danilevicius, Poskus, Sernas, Velicka, and Kavaliauskas are all absent.
Poland – Sadlok, Kucharczyk, Smolarek, Jelen, and Piszczek are absent.
Norway – Hangeland, Solli, Rindaroy, Haestad, Skjelbred, Helstad, Iversen, and Carew are absent.
Romania – Lobont, Rat, Goian, Chivu, Zicu, Radoi, Deac, Marica, D.Niculae, and Bucur are absent.
Russia – Malafeev, Anyukov, Denisov, Zyrianov, and Kerzhakov are absent whilst Arshavin is a doubt.
Scotland – Whittaker, Hutton, Commons, and Gordon are absent.
Serbia – Stankovic and Ivanovic are absent.
Slovenia – Suler is absent and Mavric Rozic is a doubt.
Ukraine – Yarmolenko, Shovkovskyi, Gusev, Chygrynskiy, and Rakitskiy are absent. Shevchenko and Milevskiy are doubts.