TFT Issue 181!
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Remember to check back throughout the day for updates on team news!
The bin
GAIS Goteborg vs Kalmar FF – home win at 6/5.
I was going to take the home win as Kalmar look devoid of confidence and GAIS are full of goals but the news that star striker Alvaro Santos has left GAIS Goteborg for Helsingborg has persuaded me to leave this one well alone to see how GAIS Goteborg cope without him. A big “no bet” for me.
Featured game
Lyngby vs AC Horsens – away win at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Superligaen game between Lyngby and AC Horsens.
Last season, you wouldn’t have found much between these two sides; you could perhaps have even edged toward Lyngby because of their ability to score goals. However, things have changed and Horsens have leapt past Lyngby now in terms of potency and I can’t ignore that right now.
Now, the huge problem that faces Lyngby is that they’re a very weak side physically. It’s not a great problem whilst they deploy their attacking football as they can usually score enough goals to survive but they’ve lost their ability to score goals with the old Madsen-Aabech partnership dry so far this season. Their defence is worse than ever this season now that Hamalainen and Moller moved on pre-season, leaving big holes at the back, so it’s no surprise at all that they’ve shipped six goals in four games already this season and have conceded in every game they’ve played despite facing the two newcomers to the division – HB Koge and AGF Aarhus respectively.
Horsens though – just wow! I never though I’d be purring over their attacking football but Toft and Macena look absolutely terrifying in attack and every side they’ve faced so far in the Superligaen have tasted that this season. They’ve smashed home eleven goals in four games and were desperately unlucky to not beat Aalborg BK in their last match, drawing 3-3 in a game that they really should have won. Don’t get me wrong – this side is not going to be a title contender this season. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them sneak a UEFA Europa League place if they continue playing as well as they are because they’re scoring goals for fun and playing good attacking football. There’s bags of experience in this Horsens side and they’re playing without pressure for obvious reasons so I can’t overlook Horsens here.
For me, there’s plenty of value in the away win at 11/10 today. The hosts look unable to pass the ball around for any period of time with any degree of confidence and lack at both ends of the park. Horsens are playing with confidence and are scoring goals so the away win is something I’m very interested in today, especially with one of Lyngby’s few remaining defeders – Krabbe – being absent.
Team news – Lyngby miss Hojlund, Bischoff, and Krabbe whereas AC Horsens miss Agesen, Aslam, and Klove.
Verdict: AC Horsens to win at 11/10.
Additional games
KI Klaksvik vs EB/Streymur – away win at 4/5.
It was perhaps a good thing that EB/Streymur’s game at home against IF Fuglafjordur was postponed as it’s difficult to imagine EB/Streymur having been focused/sober enough to beat them again having already beaten them 3-0 in the final of the Logmanssteypid, which naturally makes EB/Streymur champions.
The visitors have had time to recover since then, however. Their focus is back on the Meistaradeildin and only three points against KI Klaksvik today will suffice given the machine-esque form of B36 Torshavn, who currently top the table. If EB/Streymur don’t win this game then the title is well and truly beyond them. It’s going to take a gargantuan effort for them to do it now, even if they win this game, as they’ll be eight points behind. However, they do still have to play B36 Torshavn twice before the end of the season so it’s far from impossible and the experienced Faroese giants know it.
EB/Streymur are arguably still the best side in the Faroe Islands but the ability that B36 Torshavn have seemingly developed this season to win games when they need to has been incredibly effective for them, as you’d expect. EB/Streymur also have Vikingur Gotu to consider although I don’t think they’ll last the distance in their current placing – I don’t think they’ll have the depth nor the ability when they face the bigger teams.
EB/Streymur’s away record in the Meistaradeildin this season isn’t great, admittedly – not many do have a good record away from home in this country. However, this is more about KI Klaksvik’s inability to win than the superiority of their opponents, although EB/Streymur’s superiority is unquestionable!
KI Klaksvik enjoyed games like this at the start of the season when they’d just been promoted. They love to sit back and counter-attack as it suits their players well – quick attack, reasonably solid defence. However, the lengthy Meistaradeildin season has wound on and KI Klaksvik’s players now look very tired. They’ve lost five out of five games since the end of May, conceding thirteen goals along the way and scoring just four times. Their most recent defeat was the home defeat against rock-bottom B71 Sandur, which was nothing short of embarrassing. KI Klaksvik may well be on their way back down if they’re not careful as they don’t have the individual quality to keep them in the division – they must funtion as a unit or they’ll be relegated.
However, it’s really not good times for the hosts. Their last two home games have ended in defeat against rock-bottom B71 Sandur and newly-promoted 07 Vestur Sorvagur, which takes KI Klaksvik’s tally to five defeats in seven home games this season. Home form is what keeps sides up and KI Klaksvik just don’t have it.
For me, there’s a big quality mismatch here. I’ve seen EB/Streymur shorter than this against better sides than KI Klaksvik so I’m more than happy to take the away win at 4/5 today.
Verdict: EB/Streymur to win at 4/5.
B71 Sandur vs 07 Vestur Sorvagur – home win at 2/1.
The odds on display today only enhance my opinion of the bookies knowing fuck all about the Faroe Islands. Irrespective of the scoreline in this game, there’s no way at all that B71 Sandur should be 2/1 to win here and I’ll explain why.
B71 Sandur have picked up in the last few weeks and have started scoring goals. In fact, the only side to “go to town” on them since the start of June was a rejuvenated IF Fuglafjordur side. However, they’ve scored in all five of their last five games and have actually scored four in their last two games, claiming an unfamiliar win at newly-promoted KI Klaksvik last time out. This morale boost has come at the perfect time as it’s win or busy for B71 Sandur, basically. They need to make up nine points (minimum!) or face relegation but the way they’ve played lately suggest that it might not be as impossible as it looks, especially given the horrendous form of HB Torshavn and KI Klakvik respectively.
In July, B71 Sandur strengthened their team with the acquisitions of able former players Rasmus Nilsen and Gudmund Nielsen, not to mention pacey ex-OB Odense forward Bojang. Unsurprisingly, Gudmund Nielsen has bagged two in two for his old club. Those signatures have been like a much needed breath of fresh air for B71 Sandur. Even goalkeeper Simun Hansen is in great form and that’s largely due to the confidence boost he’s taken from saving penalties against B36 Torshavn and KI Klaksvik respectively. The hosts are really starting to turn things around at the moment and they’ve been troubling sides better than 07 Vestur Sorvagur lately so I don’t know why they’re 2/1 today.
I do like 07 Vestur Sorvagur – their suicidal all-out-attack tactics are valiant if stupid too! They are an entertaining side, however – they score goals for fun at home and you’re generally in for a good game when you face them. However, they really struggle to score goals away from home – only HB Torshavn have done it worse than they have this season and that’s not a good sign. What’s worse than that (somehow) is that they average conceding well over two goals per away game, which is the joint worst record in the Meistaradeildin. Not scoring goals plus conceding a lot of goals will only leave you with one outcome so 07 Vestur Sorvagur do have their problems on the road, it must be said.
Both sides have been somewhat rejuvenated in recent times, however – both need to be treated with respect in the coming weeks, especially as they’re both in the relegation dogfight. However, it’s absolutely laughable that B71 Sandur are 2/1 to beat a side that they’re more than capable of beating. They’re playing well enough to do it so my call is the home win here.
Verdict: B71 Sandur to win at 2/1.
Steaua Bucharest vs Universitatea Cluj – away win with draw no bet at 16/5.
How are Steaua so short here?? They’re the biggest name in Romanian football by a mile, I know, but they are not a good side nowadays. Read what you will into their 4-0 win against Dacia Mioveni in the last Liga round – you’ll see the real Steaua as the season winds on. Additionally, this game is not in Bucharest – it’s being played in Ploiesti!
Defensively, Steaua are ok. They’re not as solid as whe Radoi and Goian were there, naturally, but that’s only to be expected. They’re still decent at keeping sides out. However, their attack is beyond woeful with only Costea having any idea about where the goal is. Steaua are lacklustre, they’re completely ineffectual at creating chances, and they’re all terrified of angering eccentric chairman Gigi because he’s a lunatic that loves to criticise his own players in the press and sell them. There is minimal talent in this Steaua team and I cannot simply overlook these odds with that in mind.
Helpfully, Universitatea Cluj now have a squad capable of doing damage in these games. They’ve looked decent so far this season, already beating title hopefuls Rapid Bucharest 2-0 and winning 0-1 at Mioveni. Is it any real surprise, though? They’ve got some really good players in their ranks nowadays. Young Brazilian attacker Machado is always a threat, as is ex-Dinamo Bucharest striker Claudio Niculescu, who can still find the net at his advanced age and there isn’t a side in Romania that he’d love to score against more than Steaua Bucharest for obvious reasons! Ex-Dinamo Bucharest playmaker Cristea is yet another good player Universitatea Cluj possess. They also have Marinescu, who was with Steaua Bucharest last season.
For me, Universitatea Cluj have more than enough to trouble their more illustrious opponents today. I look at Universitatea’s team and I see cohesion and potency. I look at Steaua’s team and I see little attacking threat and an overrated side. Even if you don’t take this tip, I hope I’ve managed to persuade you from not backing Steaua in this game as it’s a huge red herring, in my eyes. Laying Steaua has value at 7/5 but I’ve gone for the much more risky but potentially worthwhile away win with draw no bet cover at a staggering 16/5. I really like this one today as the visitors are far too underrated, in my view.
Verdict: Universitatea Cluj to win with draw no bet at 16/5.
Nieciecza vs Arka Gdynia – home win at 7/5.
I can’t understand why Nieciecza are so long to win this one. The Polish Liga 1 is yet to get going fully, admittedly, but Nieciecza are going to be in the top seven this year due to their impressive signings pre-season and change of manager. They’re more than good enough to do it and they’ve demonstrated it numerous times already this season. Arka Gdynia, on the other hand, will do well to stay in the division despite having only just been relegated to it from the Ekstraklasa. They sold almost all of their good players pre-season and what we see in their team now is a bunch of unfamiliar zombies that are marching around the field and getting ripped apart by everyone that they face. They bring minimal goal threat and no cohesion so the home win at 7/5 looks attractive to me today.
Verdict: Nieciecza to win at 7/5.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Lokeren – No absentees.
Anderlecht – Vargas, Molins, Schollen, Odoi, Badibanga, Mazuch, and Diogo are absent. Legear and Jovanovic may feature.
Mechelen – Ruiz, Biebauw, Vidarsson, Geudens, and Van Loo are absent.
Lierse SK – Van Dooren, Gomez, De Wree, Thompson, Adesanya, Vets, Carton, and Andreasson are absent. Sonck returns.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Svetkavitsa – No absentees listed.
Minior Pernik – Kacimerski is absent. Bibishkov may debutise.
Slavia Sofia – Dyakov is absent.
Botev Vratsa – No absentees listed.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Split – Vidic is absent.
Osijek – Jugovic is absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Ceske Budejovice – Hudson and Riegel are absent. Halam and Horejs are doubts.
Sigma Olomouc – Prikryl is absent.
Slovan Liberec – Bicik is a doubt.
Hradec Kralove – No absentees.
Slavia Prague – Ciman, Contofalsky, and Tusjak are absent. Jarolim and Janda are doubts.
Marila Pribram – Divisek, Pilik, and Krejci are absent.
Slovacko – Volesak, Perutka, and Danicek are absent.
Sparta Prague – No absentees.
English Premier League:
Stoke City – Upson, Fuller, Sidibe, and Higginbotham are absent. Delap and Etherington are doubts. Woodgate could debutise.
Chelsea – Sturridge and Luiz are absent. Torres is a doubt.
West Bromwich Albion – Reid, Odemwingie, Mulumbu, Thomas, and Scharner are doubts.
Manchester United – Hernandez is absent. Carrick, Welbeck, and Evra are doubts.
English Championship:
Blackpool – No absentees.
Peterborough United – Thompson could debutise.
Cardiff City – McPhail is a doubt.
Bristol City – Elliott and Fontaine are doubts.
Finnish Ykkonen:
HiFK Helsinki – Tanner, Pyhala, and Heinanen are absent. Britschgi is a doubt.
FC Espoo – No absentees.
KPV Kokkola – Daftari could debutise.
OPS Oulu – Juvonen is absent. Gamarra could debutise.
German Bundesliga:
Kaiserslautern – Bugera, Lucas, Simunek, Vermouth, and Nemec are absent.
Augsburg – Oehrl, Rafael, and Sankoh are absent. Thurk has been released.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Adler, Giefer, Oczipka, and Barnetta are absent.
Werder Bremen – Balogun, Boenisch, Naldo, Silvestre, Borowski, Avdic, and Ayik are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC – Coulibaly and Varga are absent.
Fehervar – Vinicius and Oliveira are absent.
Kaposvari Rakoczi – Hajduch is absent.
Ujpest – Kabat and Takacs are absent. New boss – Szpisljak – but isn’t in charge for this game despite Meszoly having already been fired.
Moldovan Divizia Nationala:
Zimbru Chisinau – Star striker Andronic has left. Celio and Lopes could debutise.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heracles Almelo – Maertens, Looms, and Van der Linden are absent.
NAC Breda – Lurling, Jozefzoon, and Schalk are absent. Zonneveld is a doubt.
FC Utrecht – Duplan and Fernandez are absent. Mulenga and Cummins are doubts.
De Graafschap – Nalbantoglu and Saejis are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Ozbiliz, Silva, Aissati, El-Hamdaoui, and Lodeiro are absent. Vertonghen is a doubt.
Heerenveen – Steppe, Kopic, Roorda, and Gouweleeuw are absent.
Groningen – Van de Laak is absent.
ADO Den Haag – Visser, Vicento, Ammi, ad N’Toko are absent. Verhoek is a doubt.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – No absentees.
Widzew Lodz – Ben Radhia, Madera, and Dudu are absent.
Lechia Gdansk – Surma and Bak are absent.
Cracovia Krakow – Stuart is absent.
Polish Liga 1:
Nieciecza – Mysona and Czerwinski are absent.
Arka Gdynia – Zoch and Niedziela are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt – Vitelaru and Constantinescu are absent.
Otelul Galati – Ilie, Salagean, and Giurgiu are absent.
Steaua Bucharest – Matei, Alves, and Radut are absent.
Universitatea Cluj – Morar is absent.
Russian Premier League:
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod – Yashin and Ajinjal absent. Side struggling now Martsvaladze has moved on.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Obinna and Amelchenko are absent.
Zenit St.Petersburg – Bystrov, Malafeev, and Zhevnov are absent.
Amkar Perm – Narubin is absent.
Spartak Moscow – McGeady is absent.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Lakhiyalov is absent.
FK Krasnodar – Samsonov is absent.
Krylyva Sovetov Samara – Joseph-Renette and Kuznetsov are absent. Supposedly a fixed away win for them today.
Scottish Premier League:
Kilmarnock – Gros and Racchi are absent.
Hibernian – Hart, Sodje, and Welsh are absent. O’Hanlon is a doubt.
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Olimpija Ljubljana – Sretenovic is absent. Jovic and M.Delamea are doubts.
Rudar Velenje – Jelecevic and Klinar are absent. Decic, Purisic, and Majcen are doubts.
Mura 05 – Lotric is absent.
Triglav – Bunderla is absent.