TFT Issue 182!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
FC Honka Espoo vs VPS Vaasa – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga duel between Honka and VPS. Honka have let me down more than I expected this season but they should manage to win this one today.
Honka lost their last match 2-1 at under-strength HJK Helsinki. The result was harsh given that Honka conceded a goal against the run of play, dominated possession and eventually equalised before conceding yet another stupid goal. Honka were the better side in that game but things didn’t go their way. Honka have done well in their past few games, though, hence me giving them another chance here. They’ve won 2-4 at TPS Turku, 3-1 against KuPS Kuopio, and outplayed reigning champions HJK Helsinki in their own backyard so I don’t think momentum will be a great issue for them here. Indeed, with only Tammilehto absent, Honka are almost at full strength so I fancy them to do damage here, especially given the ever-dangerous form of Savage.
Visitors VPS have done surprisingly well lately but I think they’ll get caught out against a good Honka today. Tanska is their best defender by a mile and his continued absence is a problem against the better sides. Helpfully, the little attacking threat that VPS bring into this game is even less than normal with regular striker Laaskonen absent and leading goalscorer Kokko a big doubt today. VPS are a unit that is set up to stop sides scoring against them whilst taking advantage of their opponents on counter-attacks and from set pieces but without their two most recognised forwards and best defender, it’s hard to envision them being at anywhere near their best today.
It may take Honka some time to break through this VPS defence but I do expect them to get through ultimately and to at least win the game. VPS haven’t scored on three out of their last four visits to Espoo and as dubious as Honka’s defending can be, I’d be surprised to see that record improve today. For me, there’s value in taking a superior Honka side to win the game by two goals or more as they’re a potent side and they’re the only side I expect to score.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win with a -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Additional games
JJK Jyvaskyla vs Jaro Pietarsaari – home win at 3/4.
You have to fancy JJK here. Their form lately hasn’t been good, admittedly, but they’re solid on their artificial turf and they boast a very dangerous attacking side with plenty of options, especially in midfield. Jaro have improved lately since the signing of their new striker and may even score here but they’re going to have to play very well to avoid defeat against a JJK side that has already won six out of nine home games in the Veikkausliiga this season. For me, JJK will win this game one way or another – they have too much firepower for Eremenko’s Jaro to deal with – so the odds of 3/4 for a JJK win appeal to me today.
Verdict: JJK Jyvaskyla to win at 3/4.
Elfsborg Boras vs IFK Goteborg – home win at 9/10.
IFK Goteborg have had their chances to shine lately i.e. their derby with Helsingborg, their trip to Trelleborg etc. but they just keep letting themselves down on the road. At home – no problem; they score goals a-plenty and win games as a result. On the road, though, they operate at about 50% and it costs them week in, week out. Seriously, look at their away form in the Allsvenskan this season – the only good side they’ve beaten was Malmo FF! Aside from that, they’ve beaten rock-bottom Halmstad, drawn with newly-promoted IFK Norrkoping, and beaten the other two newly-promoted sides too. They’ve lost against everyone else, including a poor Gefle side. IFK have two big problems – the first is that they rely too heavily on Hysen and the second is that they cannot defend. The former is a problem they’ll have to deal with in due course but as Hysen is one of the best players in the division, it’s not an issue that requires addressing immediately. However, their defence is shoddy and with no Selakovic in midfield and no Karlsson at the back today, I don’t see things improving for the visitors, especially not at the difficult Boras Arena. Elfsborg have already won eight out of ten on their beloved artificial turf this season and the only sides to avoid defeat here either needed a lot of luck (ala AIK Solna) or to defend solidly (ala Kalmar FF), the latter of which IFK cannot do. Elfsborg have no European committments any longer – they can focus fully on the Allsvenskan and to be honest, I fancy them to win it given the players that Helsingborg have lost lately. They’ve got some terrific players, the best of which surely has to be midfielder Svensson, but the most redeeming feature of the team is their ability to score goals. Much like IFK Goteborg, defending is not their specialised area but their attack is very dangerous as their record of scoring over two goals per home game on average proves. They’ve beaten IFK at home for three out of their last four meetings and I fancy them to do it again today, especially with no Svensson available for the visitors. For me, there’s value on Elfsborg winning this one at 9/10.
Verdict: Elfsborg Boras to win at 9/10.
Team news
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo – Tammilehto is absent.
VPS Vaasa – Laasksonen and Tanska are absent. Kokko is doubtful.
Inter Turku – Asis, Parviainen, Scoppa, and Osinachi are absent.
IFK Mariehamn – No absentees.
JJK Jyvaskyla – No listed absentees.
Jaro Pietarsaari – No listed absentees.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Tabe is doubtful.
KuPS Kuopio – Holopainen, Vilmunen, and Nwakaeme are absent. Balogh is doubtful.
Finnish Ykkonen:
FC Lahti – Miranda, Huuhka, and Eerola are absent. Backman and Turunen are doubts.
PoPa Pori – Dema and Vihtila are absent. Solomon could debutise.
Dutch Eredivisie:
NEC Nijmegen – Wellenburg is absent.
Excelsior Rotterdam – Fillecia, Wattamaleo, and Lagouireh are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
GKS Belchatow – Buzala and Bocian are absent.
Lech Poznan – Kikut, Krivets, and Arboleda are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Vointa Sibiu – Cigan, Bar, Maghici, and Matei are absent.
Targu Mures – Topic, Vasilache, Halisson, and Bumba.
FC Brasov – Mateiu and Dominguez are absent. New manager Jose Murcia.
Sportul Studentsc – No absentees.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras – No listed absentees.
IFK Goteborg – Svensson and Selakovic are absent. Haglund is a doubt.
IFK Norrkoping – Ronnekiev, Khalili, and Hasani are absent.
AIK Solna – Lundberg is absent.
Swedish Superettan:
Brommapojkarna – Lindner, Asbrink, and Albornoz (sold) are absent.
Varnamo – No absentees.
Brage – Akervall is absent.
Hammarby – Forsberg, Tornstrand, and Malke are absent.
Landskrona BoIS – Rosen, Karlsson, and Selimovic are absent. Vazgec and Pedersen could debutise.
Osters – No absentees.
Qviding Goteborg – No absentees listed.
Angelholm – No absentees listed.