TFT Issue 184!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Getting a bit pissed off with stuff going against me lately but whatever; these things happen in football.
Featured game
OB Odense vs Villarreal CF – away win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Denmark between OB Odense and Villarreal CF. I was happy to roll with over 2.5 goals here as both are very attack-minded sides but I’ve changed my mind a little since then having seen the team news.
OB Odense are a decent side but their recent displays – which have been good – are a result of hard work and having a few quality players like Utaka, Djemba-Djemba, Mendy, Reginiussen etc. In fact, given that they’re part-way through the Superligaen campaign, I’d even have given them a chance of springing a surprise here against a Villarreal CF side that has no competitive match practice ahead of this encounter. However, the news that Mendy is suspended whilst Reginiussen and Utaka are injured fills me with zero confidence on the OB Odense front. Utaka is their best striker by some way and given how well solid Norwegian centre-back Reginiussen has settled in and how useful pacey French full-back Mendy is on the attack, I can’t help but feel that we’ll see OB Odense clinging on a bit here. True enough, they’re the hosts and they do still have some quality players but missing three very important players (even though Reginiussen is still relatively new to the club) ahead of a game against a side that’s quite simply better than they are is not an ideal warm-up.
Villarreal CF bring largely the same squad to this season as they did last season with the only major change being the big money sale of Santi Cazorla to moneybags Malaga. They’ve subsequently brought in consistent attacker Camunas from Osasuna and although it’s not a replacement quality-wise, it is in terms of consistency and for just a couple of million, that could prove be an inspired move by Garrido. They signed Zapata from Udinese to give them a bit of defensive stability but aside from that, they’ve done very little other than to move left-back Capdevila on. To be fair, there’s not a lot that needs work on in this squad other than perhaps more depth. People do have to remember that Villarreal are still a small club, though – they’re not anything close to local rivals Valencia CF in terms of size and history. They may catch Valencia CF in due course but Villarreal CF’s lack of spending isn’t a great surprise, really – they can’t earn much from El Madrigal’s limited capacity. Nonetheless, this side plays excellent football and they tend to score goals with dangerous duo Rossi and Nilmar up front and I don’t think that’ll have changed pre-season. Villarreal CF are still a very hard side to get the ball off and they’re a dangerous side to face in general as they’re lethal in front of goal. Can they win this game? Of course they can.
My concerns here are restricted to home advantage and Villarreal being a tad rusty but considering that they’re my biggest concerns, the away win at evens looks interesting here. El Submarino Amarillo have plenty of attacking flair and should be able to outscore their Danish hosts so the away win is my call here.
Verdict: Villarreal CF to win at evens.
Additional game
B68 Toftir vs B71 Sandur – lay B68 Toftir at 11/10.
Shock! Horror! Bookies have actually priced almost all of the Meistaradeildin games in this round correctly by my own estimation, which is irritating as I’ve made a fuckload of money in the Faroe Islands over the past few months. Never mind – at least we have this game to work with.
B68 Toftir are a side that are a pain to beat but aren’t very good at beating other sides. They’ll work very hard, often ineffectually due to a lack of quality, but they’ll rarely be torn apart. They’ll be able to draw with some of the best Faroese sides but fail to beat some of the worst, hence them winning just twice at home this season. They’re a side not to underestimate but they’re also one not to overestimate too.
Times are tough for Toftir right now though. They’ve only managed to avoid losing just once in their last six games in all competitions and that was when they drubbed a somewhat doomed KI Klaksvik 3-0, just as all Meistaradeildin clubs are doing right now. Toftir are conceding goals far too easily and two wins at home since the start of April simply isn’t good enough. Here’s a great example to back up my point about them not being good enough at breaking sides down though – they’ve not won a Meistaradeildin game this season when they’ve conceded. It’s true – they’ve won four games from sixteen this season and all of them have involved keeping clean sheets because they have zero ability to be favourites – they much prefer to be underdogs just like Trelleborg from Sweden or Ujpest from Hungary.
In my eyes, that gives B71 Sandur the edge here. Not only have their application and potency been excellent of late but they’ve started taking points too. Confidence is high as they firmly believe that they can beat the drop and why not? The sides near to them aren’t winning and three points today means they’re just three points from safety. Their goal difference is horrendous so this survival battle will have to hinge upon points rather than tactical draws etc. so I expect B71 Sandur to really go for it here. Since the two Nielsens returned to the team, B71 Sandur have looked far more dangerous in attack and have actually scored six goals in their last three games, winning their last two games consecutively. The only side to beat them on that run was league leaders B36 Torshavn in a 2-3 loss so it’s fair to treat B71 Sandur with a lot of respect here.
With the above in mind and the fact that there’s little between these two sides, I find it hard to comprehend why the hosts are so short here. They’ve only beaten B71 Sandur once in their last three attempts at home and with the visitors high on morale and scoring goals for fun whilst the hosts struggle to break through sides, I think laying B68 Toftir should be a good value bet today.
Verdict: Lay B68 Toftir at 11/10.
Team news:
Wisla Krakow – No absentees.
APOEL Nicosia – Adorno is absent. APOEL are promised a big bonus if they progress.
Dinamo Zagreb – Alispahic and Morales are absent. Selling tickets for 1 Euro each – should see Maksimir full.
Malmo FF – Sudic and Ricardinho are absent. Rexhepi is a doubt.
OB Odense – Utaka, Reginiussen, and Mendy are absent.
Villarreal CF – Angel Lopez is absent.
Maccabi Haifa – Bulyat, Katan, and Pilavsky are absent.
Racing Genk – De Bruyne, Anele, Vanden Borre, and Ogunjimi are absent.
Bayern Munich – Robben is a doubt.
FC Zurich – Alphonse, Brecher, and Kukuruzovic are absent.
English Championship:
Millwall – Racon is absent.
Peterborough United – Zakuani is absent.
Leicester City – Peltier and Vassell are absent.
Bristol City – Fontaine is absent.
Cardiff City – Gunnarsson is a doubt.
Brighton & Hove Albion – Buckley and El-Abd are absent.
Blackpool – Gilks is a doubt.
Derby County – Ward is absent. Bailey and Davies are doubts.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Siofok – No absentees.
Fehervar – Brandao, Vinicius, and Oliveira are absent.