TFT Issue 209!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Real Sociedad vs Granada – home win at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Real Sociedad and Granada.
Hosts Real Sociedad have travelled back to the Basque country after a 1-0 loss in Andaluscia against Sevilla CF with the opportunity to redeem themselves against newly-promoted Granada. In general, Real Sociedad are an average team with a few star players and that’s why you’ll find them losing a lot of away games. However, on their own turf, they’re a hellish team to face, as are all Basque sides, and subsequently, few sides win at Anoeta. Barcelona know that – they drew 2-2 here a couple of weeks ago despite leading 0-2. Sociedad are the kind of side that don’t know when to give up – they battle to the end, and I’ve always admired that about them and their fellow Basque sides.
As a staunch Athletic Club de Bilbao fan, it pains to be back or even compliment their bitter rivals Real Sociedad but I do try to be impartial with my tips! Sociedad are solid at home and have enough unity on their tight pitch in San Sebastian to be a force against anyone. Sociedad do miss Xabi Prieto and Zurutuza today, unfortunately, as they’re two of Sociedad’s better creative midfielders. However, ex-Internazionale midfielder Mariga, talismanic box-to-box midfielder Aranburu, and promising youngster Illarramendi should have enough here. Most importantly, Sociedad welcome back starlet Ruben Pardo from injury – the central midfielder is very highly regarded by the Sociedad backroom staff and you only have to watch him to see why. The Basque country has a great history of producing talented midfielders – Guerrero, Yeste, Martinez, Orbaiz, Aranburu, Mendieta etc. – and I don’t see Pardo being left off that list if he continues to improve. Most importantly of all for Sociedad tonight is the return of star striker Joseba Llorente, who could make his first appearance of the season. The sale of Raul Tamudo pre-season was a bit of a stupid one, in my view – they aren’t blessed with great strikers, barring Llorente. However, pacey French attacker Griezmann and skillful Mexican attacker Vela have given Montanier options up front and surprisingly enough, Imanol Agirrexte is having a good campaign with three goals in three games – God knows how! However, Sociedad do look quite solid, at least for the time being. Anostegi and Gonzalez have barely featured in central defence this season and considering that they’re Sociedad’s best two centre-backs, in my view, their good results thus far are even further testament to their tenacity.
So – what can Granada do here? They have some decent players themselves with ex-Dynamo Kiev centre-back Diakathe, ex-Sporting Clube de Lisboa battleaxe Carlos Martins in the middle of the park with Nigerian powerhouse Uche and ex-SL Benfica attacker Jara leading the line. However, the general quality of this side is somewhat poor. I mean, staple parts of the Granada side from last season’s adventure in the Segunda Liga ala Rico, Benitez etc. aren’t good enough to do the same job at this level and it will cost Granada ultimately, in my view. They’ve started the season badly, losing two Andaluscian derbies at home against fellow newly-promoted side Real Betis Balompie and away at moneybags Malaga respectively, failing to even register a goal in both games. Since then, they’ve beaten Villarreal CF on their own turf in a narrow 1-0 win and although that win is impressive on paper, I really don’t rate Villarreal CF right now so I won’t read much into it.
Most of the good players that Granada actually have right now haven’t been at the club longer than four weeks and it’s understandably taking time for them to gel. Julio Cesar, Hassan Yebda, and Franco Jara all joined from SL Benfica so they at least have a decent understanding with one another already. However, there’s no denying that Granada are still yet to gel as a unit and the Basque country is not the place to go without 100% galvanisation and organisation. Granada’s best hope is that Sociedad don’t show up in front of goal, which is possible, after all, but they’re going to need some luck with the defending that they’ve demonstrated so far this season.
So, yeah – Sociedad winning this one at 11/10 interests me a lot here; probably far more than it should. Sociedad always start the season well, just as they did last season with only Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Valencia CF, and Sevilla CF avoiding defeat at Anoeta until March last year. Basque sides often have the upper hand at home – except against bigger sides, of course – and Sociedad are no exception. I think they’ve got enough momentum and ability to win this one against a disjointed Granada side and the odds look worth a flutter as a result.
Verdict: Real Sociedad to win at 10/11.
Additional games
Novara vs Internazionale – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
For once, the bookies’ odds on Internazionale winning this game look a lot more realistic than usual. Inter aren’t the side they were and their displays so far this season have shown just how inept they are in defence. It’s baffling, really – they’ve got so many talented players and yet they’ve looked like strangers so far this season. It’s even more bizarre because the Internazionale front three is nothing short of terrifying this season with Diego Forlan, Mauro Zarate, and Giampaolo Pazzini set to run riot in Serie A, given the proper ammunition from sought-after Dutch playmaker Wesley Sneijder. They’ve got a superb and often underrated holding midfielder in Esteban Cambiasso and although they do lack a bit of depth in midfield, there’s no doubt at all that they have a terrific offensive threat. However, defensively, they just look shambolic right now, especially in the full-back areas. They look vulnerable to pace, clueless positionally, and have subsequently conceded a lot of goals already this season. They’re favourites at newly-promoted Novara today and they should be but I won’t be taking them here. Firepower – yes, they have it in abundance. Ability to hold a lead – they don’t have this at all right now. They’re under immense pressure whereas Novara have zero pressure, which aids the hosts. Additionally, we have to bear in mind just how successful Novara have been prior to this season, gaining promotion from Serie C to Serie B before being promoted from Serie B to Serie A, all over the last three seasons. I’d like to attribute it to Novara’s ability but that’s not really true. Some of it is down to their devotion but a lot of it is down to their unusual home advantage in Italy that only one other side possesses – artificial turf. Novara have lost once at home in their last twenty-seven league games and that is one hell of an achievement so don’t be too eager to back Inter here, good as they are. This is Novara’s first home game of the season and they do have experienced players in their team so why not a surprise result here? I’ve maintained for years that there’s very little between the Italian divisions as the fact that very few newly-promoted sides get relegated in their first season indicates all too clearly.
From a 1×2 perspective, this game is a “sit back and observe” type of game. However, given Novara’s strength at home and Inter’s inability to defend, I think over 2.5 goals is priced generously at 4/5 and that subsequently interests me today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Osasuna vs Sevilla CF – away win with draw no bet at 9/10.
You won’t often see me back the away side when a Basque team is at home but I fear for Osasuna this year. Forget the 8-0 loss at Barcelona; any side in the Primera Liga can expect that fate at somepoint. What I’m talking about is the core of the Basque side, which is sadly neglected and very under-strength. Their results before the Barcelona hammering looked better than they were with a weak Sporting Gijon side losing 2-1 here and a poor Atletico Madrid side drawing 0-0 at home. Osasuna are ripe to lose games like this nowadays, to be honest, and I think they may go down.
We all know Osasuna are a feeder club; that’s no secret. However, they keep losing and losing players and they’re not replacing them and it will cost them, ultimately. They’ve tried replacing departed left-back Monreal with Echaide, which hasn’t really worked. Additionally, Echaide is absent for the game tonight anyway. Their best winger Juanfran left for Atletico Madrid last season. Their only two consistently dangerous strikers in Webo and Pandiani left pre-season. Hungarian attacking midfielder Vadocz left on loan. Reliable attacker Camunas left pre-season. Where does it end? They’ve signed unproven African striker Balde to lead their line at a very tender age and they’ve loaned former club hero Raul Garcia back from Atletico Madrid to buffer their central midfield but to be honest, that’s the least of their worries right now with other areas of the team far more important right now. Shojaei and Nekounam are good midfielders – they are ok for Osasuna to work with right now, although Shojaei is absent today and Nekounam faces a late fitness test. Instead, the Osasuna hopes of scoring goals lies in unproven ex-Anderlecht attacker Lamah, who has yet to convince, not to mention young Balde. There’s no depth in this team and there’s limited experience. Hell, even one of Osasuna’s most reliable defenders over the past few seasons – Miguel Flano – has barely featured this season. None of this is good news for Osasuna and I genuinely fear for them this year as I don’t see where their goals will come from, even in their beloved fortress in Pamplona.
Visitors Sevilla CF, on the other hand, are making steady progress and under excellent boss Marcelino, it’s no surprise at all. Sevilla have shown belief under their new boss, something that they’ve not genuinely had for a long time now. In Negredo and Kanoute, they have two very dangerous Primera Liga attackers. In Armenteros, Rakitic, Navas, and Trochowski they have good attacking players. Gary Medel is a loony but he’s a threat too, as is promising youngster Campana. There’s plenty of experience at the back too with Spahic, Escude, and Caceres in defece, although Escude has not travelled to Pamplona tonight due to injury. Sevilla are back in their habit of scoring goals and that makes them a dangerous side to play against, especially with lightning-fast winger Navas. Indeed, Navas is one of the main reasons that I want to take Sevilla here. Osasuna have been poor and look weak, although they’ll never lose their spirit. However, they don’t have a good left-back here and playing agianst Navas without one is just suicidal. Sevilla should be able to exploit that and despite their dubious defending, I can’t see Osasuna scoring enough goals to get back in the game if they fall behind.
Therefore, the odds surprise me a little here; Sevilla should be slight favourites, in my view. They have a much greater threat in front of goal and although I’d never urge anyone to underestimate how difficult trips to the Basque country are to face their tenacious hosts, I still think there’s a lot of value in taking Sevilla with draw no bet cover here.
Verdict: Sevilla CF to win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Leeds United vs Manchester United – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Ah, this should be a fun one.
I don’t know how much of you guys from abroad know about this fixture but allow me to assure you that this is a huge derby game for both sides. Manchester United fans have a bigger rivalry with Leeds United and Liverpool than anyone else in the world and you can expect cards here as a result.
Onto the game, though – Leeds beat Manchester United a couple of years ago at Old Trafford in a deserved but shocking 0-1 win which left Manchester United fans furious. I can guarantee you that because I was one of the ones who went to the damn game! Is it time for revenge? Possibly. Fergie is not a rash manager; he won’t send Rooney & co. down to take Leeds apart here. However, what he will do is send players that need match practice and given that that list of names includes the likes of Berbatov, Owen, Fabio da Silva, Lindegaard, Macheda, Valencia, Park, Fletcher, Carrick, and maybe even Giggs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a strong line-up here. Fergie has stated that he will play midfield prodigy Paul Pogba at somepoint – it’s a real baptism of fire for him so I’ve no idea how that will work out. However, you can rest assured that Leeds will play their best side here and will fight for every ball so this is not an easy game.
So why the -1 Asian Handicap on Manchester United? One word; defence. United can’t rest defenders here because they’re using their “kids” already and they’re forming a solid bond. United’s defence is good and should be able to keep Leeds out here. However, allowing for the possibility of Leeds scoring here, can United score at least three goals? Sure. United have more than enough firepower to do so – we all know that. My confidence comes from Leeds’ inability to defend against anyone, however. They’ve kept three clean sheets in their last twenty-four competitive games and if they do that against Manchester United then this game will be very long indeed for them. Additionally, regular defender Kisnorbo is suspended for this game, which raises further questions over the Leeds defence. With the likes of Berbatov, Owen, and even Macheda (who was absolutely superb pre-season) you have to feel that United will at the very least win this game. Leeds have lost a lot of players since they last faced Manchester United and I think we’ll see a different game here as a result. For me, there’s value on the away win with a -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Verdict: Manchester United to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Team news
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Domzale – Krcic, Knezovic, and twelve others are absent (not named, though – likely to be their long-term absentees)
Rudar Velenje – New boss settled well. Jelecevic, Djokic, and Rotman are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Sociedad – Xabi Prieto and Zurutuza are absent.
Granada – David Cortes, Geijo, Jose Juan, Lucena, Pamarot, Mollo, Ribeiro, and Boateng are absent.
Osasuna – Riesgo, Echaide, Sergio, and Masoud are absent. Nekounam is a doubt.
Sevilla CF – Escude is absent.