TFT Issue 310!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Getafe – away win with draw no bet at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Madrid derby between Rayo Vallecano and Getafe. It’s not a big derby, per se, but it’s a derby nonetheless so be a shade wary here.
Rayo Vallecano continue to unimpress me, week after week. They’re a decent counter-attacking side but when playing at home they’re so predictable and easy to stop that I can’t help opposing them most of the time. They’ve lost against Athletic Bilbao, Real Mallorca, and Sporting Gijon in three of their last four Primera Liga home games and it’s usually because of daft defending. Rayo do have some good players, not least in veteran striker Tamudo and attacking midfielder Michu, but there’s too little Primera Liga quality in this team for my liking and thus I don’t see a future in the Primera Liga for this cash-strapped side. They may have claimed a potentially invaluable three points with a 1-2 win at Real Zaragoza last time out, which does give them momentum ahead of this game. However, it’s going to take more than a counter-attacking win for them to convince me that they’re a dangerous side in games like these.
Getafe are a better footballing side than Rayo. I’m a little concerned that they do tend to operate at 50% capacity when playing away from home in the Primera Liga but they’ve got the quality to win this game and I think the platform is there for them to show it. League leaders Real Madrid are the only side to beat Getafe in the Primera Liga since the start of December so you can see how they’re finally galvanising as a unit. They’re arguably not one of the more entertaining sides in the Primera Liga but they’re good passers of the ball, they’re frustrating to play against, and they’ve got some decent finishers too. You all know the quality of Guiza up front and Venezualan attacker Fedor is having a good season. Still, the catalyst for these displays is still Diego Castro, in my view. Signing him from Sporting Gijon was a great move as he virtually carried Sporting Gijon for a while. He’s a very good link-up player up front and he’s a decent finisher to boot. Add Barrada and Lacen into the mix and you have a good midfield. It’ll be interesting to see how good they can be when Pedro Leon and Jaime Gavilan get back to their best! Either way, Getafe are demonstrating some very composed displays at the moment and with three wins and one draw from their last four away games in the Primera Liga, I feel they must be taken seriously today.
For me, the value is on Getafe here. As I mentioned earlier, they do have a tendancy to operate at 50% capacity when playing away from home so utilise some caution here. However, backing Getafe to win this game with draw no bet cover at evens looks well worth it to me here.
Verdict: Getafe to win with draw no bet at evens.
Additional games
Young Lions vs Woodlands Wellington – away win at 11/5.
This tip is entirely down to TFT user Marz, whom some of you may recall as being our expert from the eastern side of Asia. He’s informed us that Young Lions have sold most of their good players to clubs in Malaysia and thus have very young, inexperienced, and frankly unproven players playing in this game. With that in mind, Woodlands Wellington look well worth a punt at long odds of 11/5.
Verdict: Woodlands Wellington to win at 11/5.
Espanyol vs Real Zaragoza – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
This one will probably raise a few eyebrows! I’ve already seen people jumping on Espanyol as a “banker” for the home win here and I couldn’t disagree more.
Look, Espanyol could win this game. They’re a very solid and reliable side when playing in Barcelona. You know what to expect from them – great organisation, superb support, tremendous work ethic, and good passing. You’ll not score many goals against Espanyol at home and few sides will win here each season.
However, Espanyol are notorious for not taking their chances and that’s still the case now. They’ve not adequately replaced the departed Osvaldo yet, in my view, and that’s no surprise as he’s a good striker. Garcia does a decent job when fit and Pandiani is a good finisher but is in declining years so Espanyol aren’t 100% up front – far from it, in fact. Indeed, their absentees up front make me even less convinced with Espanyol here than I usually am. They’ve still got the core of their midfield and defence to call upon but I just don’t understand how they’re so short in this game when they barely manage to average scoring over a goal per home game.
Are Espanyol better than Zaragoza? I would say so, yes. However, Zaragoza have shown a marked improvement under Jimenez and have even started scoring again, bagging in three out of their last four games. Maybe Real Madrid took their foot of the pedal when they beat Zaragoza 3-1 at home but Zaragoza domianted the last 25-30 minutes, in my view. Zaragoza have been a bit unlucky lately but have also been vulnerable at the back and that has hurt them. If they were facing a better side than Espanyol today then I’d fear for them because they concede too many goals but their defence shouldn’t be too badly exposed by Espanyol here unless the hosts really turn it on. Either way, I’m happy to give Zaragoza a shout here. They’re looking much better on the ball and they’re more than capable of scoring a goal here. If they do score a goal in this game then the +1 Asian Handicap shouldn’t lose as Espanyol are very rarely capable of scoring three in the same game without assistance from the opposing defence, as was the case with their undeserved 3-3 draw in Bilbao lately.
i’m willing to accept that Espanyol could and possibly should win this game. However, they’re ludicrously short and I think Zaragoza have a chance of causing an upset in this game by scoring. For me, there’s plenty of value in giving Zaragoza a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5 as Espanyol just aren’t good enough in front of goal to command odds of around 8/11.
Verdict: Real Zaragoza to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United – Broadfoot, Beekmans, Minniecon, Moss, MacAllister, and Porter are absent. Brown and Tyson are doubts.
Adelaide United – Mullen, Golec, Birighitti, McKain, Susak are absent. Dilevski is a doubt.
Wellington Phoenix – Ward and Pantelis are absent.
Brisbane Roar – Jurman, Nichols, and Visconte are absent. Hingert is a doubt.
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wiener Neustadt – Tvrdy, Reiter, and Friesenbichler are absent.
Rapid Vienna – Schrammel, Gartler, and Prager are absent.
Cypriot Division 1:
Anorthosis Famagusta – Laborde is absent.
AEL Limassol – Ouon is absent.
Anagennisi Deryneia – Tofas, Spurou, and Shiailis are absent.
Alki Larnaca – No absentees.
Greek Super League:
Atromitos – Mitroglou and Dimoytos are absent. Iglesias is a doubt.
Kerkyra – Gustavo and Maistorovic are absent.
Doxa Dramas – Aboubakari, Soiledis, Siklias, and Vertzos are absent.
Panaitolikos – Uele, Entzek, Rotsa, Vidal, and Koutroumanos are absent.
Aris Salonika – Prittas is absent.
Ergotelis – Romano, Kyriakidis, and Koutsianikoulis are absent.
Levadiakos – Maxairas and Napoleoni are absent. Bonus promised to players if they win this game.
Asteras Tripolis – Perone and Juli are absent. Rogerio and Bartolini return.
Panathinaikos – Leto, Ninis, Boumsong, Owusu-Abeyie, Kante, Rudolf, and Ionannidis are absent.
Xanthi – No absentees.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Kiryat Shmona – Elisha and Njuvo are absent. Solari and Rochet return.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Gabai is a doubt.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Bellini, Bonaventura, Cigarini, Capelli, and Consigli are absent.
Lecce – Tomovic, Benassi, and Carrozzieri are absent. Cuadrado, Ofere, and Grossmuller are doubts.
Catania – Campagnolo, Potenza, Suazo, and Belluschi are absent. Capuano is a doubt.
Genoa – Gilardino, Bovo, Moretti, Antonelli, Constant, and Kucka are absent. Marchiori is a doubt.
Internazionale – Guarin, Samuel, and Maicon are absent. Alvarez and Sneijder are doubts.
Novara – Ludi is absent. Marianini, Morimoto, and Radovanovic are doubts.
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Utrecht – Sarota, van der Gun, Bovenberg, Mulenga, Martensson, de Kogel, Asare, Oar, and van Dijk are absent.
ADO Den Haag – Kum, van Duinen, Mulders, and Leeuwin are absent.
RKC Waalwijk – van Hout and Duits are absent.
Heerenveen – Zomer is absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Tamata, Pieters, Wijndalum, Engelaar, and Manolev are absent.
De Graafschap – Kujala and Badibanga are absent.
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Torres, van Haaren, and Ramsteijn are absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Piiroja, Annan, Propper, Bony, and Vink are absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Olhanense – Mexer and Micael are absent. Agra, Ventura, and Araujo return.
Rio Ave – Faria, Tarantini, and Jefferson are absent. Sony, Pinto, Wires, and Tomas return.
Pacos de Ferreira – Michel, Melgarejo, Christian, and Alvarez are doubts.
Feirense – William and Rosado are absent. Stenio returns.
Beira-Mar – Joaozinho and Serginho are absent. Lopes, Camara, and Cassio debutise. Rego and Balboa return.
Vitoria Guimaraes – Assis and Pedro Mendes are absent. Alex returns.
Porto – Kleber, Otamendi, and Rolando are absent. Janko is set to debutise. Hulk and Djalma return.
Uniao de Leiria – Keita, Patrick, and Gottardi are absent. Hass and Bakroth debutise. Robinho and Alcantara return.