TFT Issue 215!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
AEK Larnaca vs Steaua Bucharest – home win with draw no bet at evens.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in Cyprus between AEK Larnaca and Romanian giants Steaua Bucharest.
The hosts are somewhat inexperienced at this level as a club but have adapted surprisingly well. Well, I say “surprisingly” but they do have a host of good and experienced players in their squad from around Europe thanks to some heavy financial investment and the appointment of Jordi Cruyff as a backroom member of staff. They’re still not at the level of APOEL, Omonia, or Anorthosis but they’re a lot closer than they were and it shows, too. They play some nice football and have demonstrated that on the European stage this season with wins against Rosenborg BK and Mlada Boleslav respectively. Like most Cypriot sides, AEK struggle away from home. However, when playing in their own venue, they’ve got a strong advantage as it’s usually very hot, which is hard for opposing sides to acclimatise to, generally speaking. They’ve played three home games in Europe this season, winning all three of them, whilst winning just once in their three away games, which speaks volumes. Hofland’s continued absence at the back for the hosts is a concern but ex-Athletic Club de Bilbao defender Murillo adds some experience in the middle in his absence and in de Cler, Van Dijk, and Linssen they have some very experienced players. The leading light of their attack is arguably Gonzalo Garcia-Garcia, who unsurprisingly spent a lot of years in the Eredivisie (like most of AEK’s players) but has subsequently become very good and that shows at his new club. For me, this side is a force at home.
Visitors Steaua aren’t in a good place right now, either, which helps. They’re infinitely more experienced than their opponents, it’s true, but for me, they’re still very, very short on quality. Leandro and Rusescu don’t exactly strike fear in me and although I rate Mihai Costea, I just don’t think Steaua have enough up front. Their midfield is vulnerable – it’s the only word I can think of to describe them since they parted with their last experienced midfielder in Nicolita in the summer transfer window. Their defence is pretty reliable, to be honest, so the hosts may have some difficulty in breaking through but Steaua are going to have to play very well to win here in Cyprus, in my view, and on the back of one win in their past five games in all competitions, I think this will be much harder for them than the bookies do. Like I said, though – they struggle to score goals and scoring in two out of their last five games is just not good enough. There’s an avenue of opportunity to exploit with no Hofland at the back for AEK but Steaua aren’t scoring goals and that must be a concern.
The UEFA Europa League is never a safe haven for betting; we all know that. However, I see a lot of value in taking the hosts with draw no bet although I’m happy to have some input from our Cypriot/Romanian friends here.
Verdict: AEK Larnaca to win with draw no bet at evens.
Additional games
Legia Warsaw vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv – both sides to score at 10/11.
Leaky Legia Warsaw playing against an attack-minded Hapoel Tel-Aviv? This game should ooze goals. Legia have improved over the past couple of years and it’s not really surprising given the money at their disposal. However, they struggle to keep clean sheets as is indicated by the fact that they’ve kept three clean sheets in thirteen competitive games this season. I like Legia’s attacking ways; it does make them a threat with Radovic and Manu in good form and experienced Ljuboja up front. I think Legia have enough here to score against their Israeli opponents, especially as Hapoel are attack-minded too. Hapoel actually play some really good football and I wouldn’t be surprised if they sneaked a win here. Damari and Tamuz are good strikers, real handfuls from what I’ve seen of them. There’s a lot of pace in the Hapoel attack and Legia really won’t like that. However, their own defence is pretty suspect too, at least on the European stage. They’ve not kept a clean sheet away from home in Europe since 2009 and although they do tend to struggle to put their chances away against bigger and better clubs, Legia are a club that I feel that they can match here. The 1×2 market holds no interest for me here other than perhaps a cheeky bet on the away win but backing both sides to score at 10/11 really appeals to me here.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
Team news
It’s my sister’s wedding today so I doubt very much that I’ll have time to post it here so hopefully our friends from around the world will post it in the comments section of this post for us. Thanks in advance, guys :)