TFT Issue 221!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
AB Copenhagen vs Skive – home win at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the Danish 1st Division encounter between heavyweights AB Copenhagen and sporadic Skive.
AB Copenhagen still haven’t found their way out of this division yet and yet a club of their size really should be playing Superligaen football by now. Their problem has been goalscoring, of course. Defensively, they’re usually accomplished enough to keep most sides out and their home form is usually strong enough to ensure that they achieve a reasonable league finish – it’s putting the ball in the net that they really need to address. To be honest, they’ve not had a natural goalscorer since they parted with Nicolai Jorgensen, although you can read a lot into the quality of defending in this division by the fact that Jorgensen was immediately re-trained as a left winger in Germany for his new club! Nonetheless, AB Copenhagen miss a lethal finisher and that is the missing piece to the jigsaw, really.
So why would that change today? Well, they’ve got two consecutive wins under their belts, not to mention two consecutive clean sheets, so there’s a good foundation to build upon. They’ve got plenty of experience and they almost always deliver a convincing display at home. Young attackers Nielsen and Hende should have ample opportunities to score goals and I do think that AB are good enough to win this one as a result.
I’m actually a really big fan of Skive; I really admire their “samba” style of football. However, they’re one of the worst sides in the division when it comes to defending and only their firepower and/or spirit tends to prevent them from losing most of their games. Whilst they’re in-form, poor defending isn’t a tremendous issue as they are a capable goalscoring outfit. However, whilst they’re out of form, they tend to be on the end of some pretty heavy defeats and that’s exactly what has happened lately. They shipped four goals in their defeat at home against Esbjerg and three goals in their home game with Hjorring. Indeed, only wayward finishing from Vestjaelland prevented them from doing the same recently so Skive aren’t in a great place right now, especially with just two goals scored over their past five games.
I won’t ever underestimate Skive’s ability to burst into life and score five goals so please approach this one with due caution. However, AB Copenhagen are looking much more organised and able right now than Skive are and Skive keeping a clean sheet is a general rarity if their opponents show up so the home win at 10/11 holds some interest for me today.
Verdict: AB Copenhagen to win at 10/11.
Additional game
Algeria vs Central African Republic – under 2.5 goals at evens.
I like these odds quite a lot, really.
North African sides are very hard to face because they’re very tactically-astute and good techncially. However, all of the North African nations nowadays have exactly the same issue – they all find it very hard to score goals. Yes, that applies to Tunisia, Egypt, and Morocco too – they’ve all got good, experienced players who keep the ball well but none of them score many goals. Algeria play with lots of fire – too much sometimes, if truth be told! – and will rarely be caught out at the back with the experience of Yahia and Bougherra, for example. However, Algeria do not take their chances often enough which is why they’re on the verge of an exit from the African Nations Qualifiers.
Central African Republic are a very poor side. They really are the stereotypical African side in the sense that they have little technical ability, little tactical sense, but plenty of spirit and pace and always threaten on counter-attacks for ninety minutes as this side simply does not give in. I’ve watched them play a few times now and they’re usually “backs-to-the-wall” in their away games. Indeed, only wayward finishing from Morocco kept that game at 0-0 earlier in this group and a similar scoreline wouldn’t surprise me today, to be honest – the visitors work so hard that the hosts not taking their chances could work wonders. After all, a draw could see the visitors reach the African Nations so I wouldn’t rule out a 0-0 draw.
My biggest concern here is that Algeria will start having men sent off unnecessarily which Algeria are really rather notorious for. However, their inability to take their chances is more than apparent and their visitors are a tough nut to crack without proper target man on the field so I think there’s a good chance of this game going under 2.5 goals at evens.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Perth Glory – Hughes and Coyne are doubts.
Adelaide United – Boogaard is absent. Dilveski is a doubt.
Gold Coast United – Thwaite is a doubt.
Wellington Phoenix – Pavlovic and Pantelis are absent.