TFT Issue 256!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
Kaliakra vs Lokomotiv Sofia
The home win appeals to me a lot at 8/5 but after the exhausting cup game Kaliakra had mid-week, I’m going to give it a miss. Frankly, I’d take anyone to beat Lokomotiv right now given their horrendous internal issues at the club but Kaliakra are average at best and have no depth so I’ll give it a miss.
Featured game
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid – home win with -2 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga derby between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. Although arguably more important to Atletico than Real, this derby tends to lean one way and it’s not in favour of the red-and-white half of Madrid!
Real Madrid are getting stronger and stronger and perhaps now can be considered a great of Europe again, in my view. Of course, their prestigious history has never been ignored but it’s fair to say that Real Madrid have been in the doldrums since the days of Del Bosque due to being too temperamental with managers etc. Is it any surprise that they’ve gained stability and efficiency now that they’ve employed a world-class manager and given him the time to do what he does best? No, not at all. Mourinho is steering Real Madrid back to the top and the firepower at their disposal is frankly frightening, really. I mean, Mourinho said that he was looking for new strikers when he first came to the club because Benzema was misfiring. Everyone was calling for him to move on but Mourinho kept him because he knew how good the French attacker is and lo and behold, Benzema is a regular starter and is scoring goals for Real Madrid now. Gonzalo Higuain is a devastating attacking prospect and with Cristiano Ronaldo all over the park, who is the best player in the world (in my view), this Madrid attack is too strong to contain. Look at who else they can call upon if needed – Kaka, Xabi Alonso, di Maria, Ozil etc. there’s so many options in there that Real Madrid now have a strong squad with plenty of depth and a great mixture of youth and experience. Defensively, the club can improve but with that kind of firepower it’s not really going to matter how many they concede, generally speaking. Mourinho was able to rest a few of his stars for their 6-2 romp against Dinamo Zagreb earlier this week so Real Madrid should be ready to rock ‘n’ roll tonight.
Atletico Madrid – well, I’ve said for some years that they’re one of the most over-priced sides in Spain and although that’s not the case tonight, I do expect the flaws in their ranks that have cost them in previous years to cost them tonight. Atletico Madrid used to be able to call upon Simao, Aguero, Torres etc. when they needed some inspiration but with all of those players having moved on, Atletico Madrid fans are scratching their heads and looking around for a saviour only to find…nobody. I think the signing of Diego was at a bargain price for a talented playmaker although he’s not at 100% yet, in my view. Turan has his movements, as does Salvio. Tiago has experience, as does Reyes, but very few of these players are what I would call “stars” which is what Atletico are missing. The “star” of the team is Falcao, in my view, although a lot overestimate him. What I mean by that is that they all seem to expect him to work some magic and score a goal which isn’t what he does. Falcao is a proper poacher and for me, he’s one of the best in the world at it. However, to be a good poacher you have to have the service and I look at Atletico’s midfield and wonder where it will come from in games like this. Additionally, Falcao is injured – he won’t be playing at the Bernabeu tonight. So – where are Atletico’s goals going to come from? I just don’t know. It’s a derby so I won’t rule Atletico out from scoring, especially given Real’s lax approach to defending, but Atletico are missing some serious quality in the final third, in my view.
For me, this has the hallmarks of a dominating home win for Real Madrid. They’re top of the Primera Liga with tremendous momentum behind them. They’re scoring goals for fun and have a whole host of attacking options at their disposal. Atletico Madrid have some decent players but nothing I’m concerned about, not with Falcao ruled out. Given the fact that Atletico Madrid haven’t been able to keep a clean sheet against a good side since the last supper, I really fancy Real to go to town on them and beat the -2 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Verdict: Real Madrid to beat the -2 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Additional games
Anorthosis Famagusta vs AEK Larnaca – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Although an unquestionable heavyweight of Cypriot football, it’s hard for me to take the odds on Anorthosis Famagusta seriously today. They can have their own way against the weaker sides in the league and they usually do, to be fair. However, let’s not make the mistake of thinking that this Anorthosis side is anywhere near the side that they were under Ketsbaia a few years ago because they’re not. They’re a lot weaker in front of goal and more vulnerable at the back, too. It’s no coincidence that this side has won just once in four attempts at home this season with cohesion hard to come by. Indeed, their only victory has come against Ermis, who were defeated just 1-0 despite being easily the worst side in the division right now. Anorthosis are anything but convincing with Rezek only able to feed off scraps up front alongside veteran hitman Konstantinou. They’re both good strikers but there’s not enough service in the Anorthosis squad for them, in my view. So, yeah – Anorthosis don’t interest me much right now, to say the least!
Visitors AEK Larnaca are a good side – let’s not overlook that just because they’re eighth in the table. They’ve had their issues this season due to injuries to key players and commitments in Europe but they’re starting to ease back into their groove. Despite a freak start to the season, the only side to beat AEK Larnaca is giants Omonia Nicosia, if we exclude the freak 0-2 result against Enosis Neon Paralimni, anyway! For me, that isn’t bad at all, especially as we all know AEK have another level to reach. Lately, AEK have found it hard to find the net, which is a concern of theirs, of course. Only Gonzalo Garcia provides a consistent attacking threat with the others providing a decent threat but nothing substantial. AEK’s strength is in their defence, however, where Kevin Hofland bosses them around. Hofland’s return from injury was very welcome and it’s no coincidence whatsoever that AEK kept a clean sheet against in-form AEL Limassol last match with the ex-PSV stopper back in action. AEK’s defence is littered with experience with ex-Ajax full-back de Cler and ex-Athletic Bilbao centre-back Murillo in there to help him out so don’t ever expect AEK to concede many – they rarely do. However, the big news ahead of this game was the bizarre sacking of Tom Caanen, who is easily their best manager – ever. There simply cannot be a reason behind this sacking; it just doesn’t make sense. Jordi Cruyff has been appointed as a temporary replacement – as he’s already at the club, I expect AEK to maintain their usual style for this game at least.
AEK are very much a “stopper” side and I can’t think of a side that Anorthosis would hate to face more than them right now with that in mind. A “stopper” side makes it even harder for sides without cohesion to break through and I really would not be surprised if AEK won this one by scoring a goal and sitting on it. Anorthosis are not convincing whereas AEK are getting back to their best with their defence starting to look strong again. For me, the away win with a +1 Asian Handicap (just in case!) is a bargain at 9/10.
Verdict: AEK Larnaca to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Rapid Bucharest – away win at 11/10.
I don’t often go against Pandurii at home but I’m making an exception today and I’ll explain why.
Pandurii played a funny game at Vaslui lately where they were outplayed in the first-half but got back into it due to Vaslui laziness. Momentum propelled them to an equaliser in the last minute but then they conceded again to lose 3-2. That game had the hallmarks of a 2-0 or 3-0 win, in my view, with everything taken into account but it turned out not to be.
Pandurii had injury problems in that game and still have some today. However, their biggest concern is the disciplinary issues that they’re having with Slovenian hitman Stromajer, who is effectively the only good striker that they have. He’s in the process of being released by the club and thus won’t be playing in this game, which gives Pandurii a real problem because Rapid’s defence away from home is tight – they’ve only shipped three goals on the road all season long and thus Pandurii will struggle here. Grigoras is a good manager, though – he’ll make them attack and believe in themselves so I won’t rule out a Pandurii goal – I just don’t see them doing more than that with injuries and Stromajer’s imminent departure hampering their preparations.
Visitors Rapid Bucharest have done well on the road this season. They play a much more different game on the road than they do at home, locking up tight, taking their chances, and time-wasting. However they do it, it works, though – only Dinamo Bucharest have won more away games than they have in Romania this season. Rapid have been very clever on the road with their displays, claiming invaluable 0-0 draws with bitter rivals Dinamo Bucharest and Steaua Bucharest respectively. They won 0-2 at Targu Mures in their last away game, which I respect them a lot for because although Targu Mures have had a poor campaign, they’ve got some very good players in their team and I do expect a good run from them in the near future when they’ve ironed out their teething issues with all their new players! Cassio might not be himself but Pancu is a class act and with Surdu alongside him and Herea in great form in midfield, there are goals in this Rapid side and if they score then you have to fancy them to win.
Like I said earlier, this really isn’t an easy away game and Pandurii’s home record will back that up. They’ve been a very solid home side in Romania for a long time although usually for different reasons (tactically) than they are now. However, Rapid won 0-1 here last year and an identical scoreline would not surprise me one iota. Either way, the away win at 11/10 with the above in mind does look appealing.
Verdict: Rapid Bucharest to win at 11/10.
LOSC Lille vs Stade Brestois – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 3/4.
Lille are having a funny season in Ligue 1 thus far, something which I can only attribute to their UEFA Champions League commitments. A priceless 0-2 win in Moscow earlier this week has kept their hopes alive of progressing to the next stage so they should enter this game with a good amount of momentum.
In Ligue 1, Lille have struggled to play with any kind of tactical knowledge on their own turf unless they’ve faced a good side. They’ve convincingly beaten both Stade Rennais and Olympique Lyonnais respectively whilst dropping points against newly-promoted Evian Thonon Gaillard, for example. However, the win against CSKA should have done them the power of good and let’s face it – they’ve got one of the strongest attacks in all of France, which should count for a lot here. Joe Cole, Eden Hazard, and Benoit Pedretti form the backbone of a powerful midfield that are more than capable of giving Sow all the ammunition he needs to score the goals. We’ve not seen anywhere near the best from Payet yet but in due course, who knows? Lille do have options in attack, however, and despite their defensive frailties, I fancy them to score a few goals here.
Words alone cannot express how much I dislike Stade Brestois so I really hope this one comes in! The visitors have played one style of football since being promoted and that’s to bore the hell out of everyone and nick a goal and sit on it. They’re the most anti-football, defensive side that I’ve ever come across in Ligue 1 but credit where it’s due – it has worked for them, it kept them from relegation in their first year in Ligue 1, and they’re plodding along quite nicely at the moment. They’re on a good run of form, in all honesty, winning two out of their last three games. However, away from home, they’re a dour side with little adventure, which should really catch them out today. It works against most sides in France because there are very few good strikers in Ligue 1 but Lille do have attacking power and thus Brest should find this to be a very hard game as they’ll have to come out of their shells when they fall behind.
For me, the -1 Asian Handicap is well worth a bet here. Lille don’t convince me at the back but their offensive power is strong and I do expect them to at least win this game. The handicap would be an additional bonus and let’s face it – they’ve got the personnel to do it. Given that I don’t expect this tip to lose and that I feel it’s got a good chance of coming in against an average and defensive Brest side, my call is Lille to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 3/4.
Verdict: LOSC Lille to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 3/4.
Team news
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried – Beichler, Karner, Hammerer, and Mazana are absent.
Wacker Innsbruck – Harding, Loffler, and Kofler are absent.
Austria Vienna – Koch, Tadic, Wallner, Salomon, and Rogulj are absent.
Wiener Neustadt – Reiter is absent.
Salzburg – Schiemer, Schwegler, Alan, and Sekagya are absent.
SV Kapfenberg – Spirk, Pavlov, and Welnicki are absent.
SV Mattersburg – Mravac, Spuller, Schartner, Doleschal, and Domoraud are absent.
Rapid Vienna – Soma, Schrammel, and Novota are absent.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Kaliakra – No absentees.
Lokomotiv Sofia – No absentees.
Beroe – Angelov, Gjurov, Bozhanov, and Penev are absent. Genchev and Yamukov are doubts.
Minior Pernik – No news.
Cypriot Division 1:
Anorthosis Famagusta – Marangos, Ramos, and Andic are absent.
AEK Larnaca – Polo and Dike are absent. Cruyff has been appointed as temporary replacement for the departed Caanen.
AEL Limassol – Enrique is absent.
Olympiakos Nicosia – No absentees.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovan Liberec – No absentees.
Jablonc – Krajcik and Kocourek are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense – New manager Hansen. Sorensen, Johansson, and Traore are absent.
Midtylland – Janssen and Sviatchenko are absent. Ipsa returns.
French Ligue 1:
LOSC Lille – Gueye is absent. Pedretti and Basa are doubts.
Girondins de Bordeaux – Chalme is a doubt. Supporters protest ahead of their game due to bad results.
Stade Malherbe de Caen – Proment is absent. Mbone and Lazarevic are doubts.
Evian Thonon Gaillard – Govou is absent.
Montpellier HSC – Sylla and Strada are absent.
AS Nancy-Lorraine – Niculae and Traore are absent.
Sochaux – Perquis, Bakambu, and Boudebouz are absent.
Stade Brestois – No news.
Dijon FCO – Marcq is absent. Sankhara returns.
Saint-Etienne – Mignot returns. Paulao is a doubt.
AC Ajaccio – Ochoa and Kinkela return. Delort, Begeorgi, El Hany, and Maire are absent.
German Bundesliga:
Kaiserslautern – Derstroff, Dick, and Simunek are absent.
Nurnberg – Bunjaku, Mendler, Nilsson, and Pinola are absent.
Hoffenheim – Ibertsberger, Beck, and Jaissle are absent.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Balitsch, Barnetta, Adler, Renato Augusto, and Bellarabi are absent.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Koch, Bender, and Subotic are absent.
Augsburg – Bah, Bellinghausen, Oehrl, Thurk, M. de Jong, Mohrle, Nebel, and Ndjeng are absent.
Schalke 04 – Farfan, Hoogland, Fahrmann, Howedes, Kenia, and Kluge are absent.
Hamburger SV – Arslan, Tavares, Rajkovic, Castelen, Petric, Sala, and Stepanek are absent.
Hannover 96 – Andreasen, Stindl, Carlitos, Ya Konan, Hauger, Miller, and Nagel are absent.
SC Freiburg – Bickel, Mujdza, and Rosenthal are absent.
VfL Wolfsburg – Hitzlsperger, Helmes, and Kahlenberg are absent.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Brighi, Capelli, Caserta, Doni, and Ferreira Pinto are absent. Bellini is a doubt.
Catania – Spolli and Suazo are absent.
Juventus – Pirlo is a doubt.
Lazio – Berardi, Del Nero, Dias, Kozak, Makinwa, Matuzalem, and Mauri are absent. Garrido and Bizzarri are doubts.
Lecce – Carrozzieri, Di Michele, Giacomazzi, Mesbah, and Diamoutene are absent.
SSC Napoli – Donadel is absent. Britos and Inler are doubts.
Novara – Morimoto, Meggiorini, and Lisuzzo are absent. Paci and Ujkani are doubts.
Parma – Floccari is absent. Gobbi, Valdes, and Modesto are doubts.
Macedonian First League:
Vardar Skopje – Grozdanovski is absent.
Ohrid – No news.
Metalurg Skopje – Krstev is absent.
Napredok – No news.
Bregalnica Stip – No absentees.
Sileks Kratovo – No absentees.
Dutch Eredivisie:
NAC Breda – Van Fessem and Gudelj are absent.
Heerenveen – Roorda and Aissati are absent.
VVV Venlo – Emenike, Gentenaar, and Leemans are absent.
De Graafschap – Nalbantoglu is absent.
Roda JC Kerkrade – Hupperts, Lebedynski, Staelens, Svard, and Fledderus are absent.
Heracles Almelo – Maertens, Looms, Ter Hort, and Breukers are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Hutchinson, Tamata, Pieters, Tyton, and Wuytens are absent.
Groningen – Johansson, Suk, Kwakman, van de Laak, Silva, and Enevoldsen are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
LKS Lodz – Kascelan is absent. Golanski is a doubt. Bad morale due to no wages paid for 2 months.
Jagiellonia Bialystok – No absentees.
Gornik Zabrze – Nowak, Bebenek, Slawik, Szymura, Krol, and Sobczak are absent.
Zaglebie Lubin – No absentees.
Korona Kielce – Kiercz and Hernani are absent. Kielb is a doubt.
Legia Warsaw – Zyro and Komorowski are absent. Radovic is a doubt. Manu and Kielbowicz may return.
Polish Liga 1:
Polonia Bytom – No news. Derby game.
Ruch Radzionkow – Skrzypczak is absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
SL Benfica – Mika, Martins, Oliveira, and Capdevila are absent. Luisao is a doubt. Mora and Saviola return.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Jeffren, Rodriguez, and Izmailov are absent. Insua returns.
CD Nacional de Madeira – Todorovic and Madeira are absent. Alberto and Costa return.
Maritimo Funchal – Felicio, Tcho, Salin, Robson, Alonso, and Pouga are absent. Sami and Ferreira return.
Romanian Liga:
Sportul Studentesc – No absentees.
Vaslui – Canu, Balace, Annang, Milanov, and Pavlovic are absent. Gladstone and Adailton are doubts.
Steaua Bucharest – Matei, Cardos, Radut, Propelita, Nastasie, Tanase, and Tatu are absent. Emeghara, Alves, and both Costeas are doubts.
FC Brasov – No absentees.
Pandurii Targu Jiu – Pleasca, Bacila, Stromajer, Grigoras, and Pintili are absent.
Rapid Bucharest – Glauber and Bozovic are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Nal’chik – Fredrickson, Kontsedalov, Berhamov, Sheriev, Bagaev, Gridnev, and Dzhudovich are absent.
Terek Grozny – Utsiev, Jiranek, and Pavlenko are absent.
Krylya Sovetov Samara – Kovba, Koroman, Taranov, and Kuznetsov are absent.
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod – Ajinjal, Yeschenko, Malyarov, Buivalov, and Grigalava are absent.
Kuban’ Krasnodar – Varga is absent.
Spartak Moscow – Kozlov, Rojo, Kayumov, Suha, and McGeady are absent.
Rubin’ Kazan – Smith, Eremenko, Nath, and Kasai are absent.
Dinamo Moscow – Semshov and Voronin are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Celtic – Commons, Mulgrew, Brown, and Izaguirre are absent.
St.Mirren – McGregor and Murray are absent.
Dunfermline Athletic – McCann, Easton, Thomson, Rutkiewicz, and Bell are absent.
Aberdeen – Folly is absent. Arnason is a doubt.
Hearts – Barr, Kyle, Glen, Santana, and Black are absent.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Tudur Jones and Doran are absent.
Motherwell – Saunders, Hollis, McHugh, and Clancy are absent.
Dundee United – Swanson and Severin are absent. Armstrong is a doubt.
St.Johnstone – C.Sheridan and Morris are absent.
Hibernian – No absentees.
Serbian Superliga:
Red Star Belgrade – Cosic is absent. Adi, Kadu, and Vilotic are doubts.
Partizan Belgrade – Stojkovic is a doubt.
Jagodina – Stanojevic is absent.
OFK Belgrade – Sumic is absent.
Vojvodina Novi Sad – Trajkovic and Vulicevic are absent.
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Domzale – Vidmar is absent.
Celje – No news.
Gorica – No absentees.
Mura 05 – Horvat is absent.
Nafta Lendava – Vas is absent.
Maribor – Viler, Mejac, Trajkovski, and Milec are absent.
Rudar Velenje – Jelecevic, Dedic, and Trifkovic are absent.
Triglav – Jelar is absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid – Joel, Antonio Lopez, Falcao, and Costa are absent.
Barcelona – Afellay and Adriano are absent.
Getafe – Gavilan, Masilela, Lopo, Leon, and Ustari are absent.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Perea is absent.
Real Madrid – Kaka, Coentrao, di Maria, and Carvalho are absent.
Valencia CF – Costa, Banega, Canales, and Maduro are absent.
Swiss Challenge League:
Etoile Carouge – Astrit and Drilon are absent.
Chiasso – No news.
Turkish Super Lig:
Samsunspor – Zenke is absent.
Antalyaspor – Eren and Necati are absent.
Orduspor – Emre, Numan, and Gosso are absent.
Mersin Idymanyurdu – Atan and Zurita are absent.
Galatasaray – Sabri and Melo are absent.
Sivasspor – Eneramo is absent.