TFT Issue 258!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Velez Sarsfield vs Liga de Quito – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Copa Sudamericana clash between Argentinian hosts Velez Sarsfield and Ecuadorian visitors Liga de Quito.
I suppose it was inevitable that Velez’s great team would be split up and now that it has been, they do look considerably more human, which is a shame. Over the past couple of years, they’ve looked utterly invincible and had it not been for a good Estudiantes team, Velez would have won everything, in my view. There was the perfect amount of everything – depth, quality, youth, experience etc. Well, now big Silva up front has moved on, as has midfield engine Alvarez and playmaker Moralez so it’s understandable that Velez aren’t what they were. That said, they’ve still held their status in the Primera Division pretty well, in my view. They really do lack a good target man without Silva but their midfield is still very good with Zapata, Fernandez, Canteros, and Ramirez in there. All Velez need to do is put the ball in the net better, in my view. Martinez is a threat up front but he needs someone to play off. Franco has never been that good in my eyes (although his experience is an obvious asset to the team) and Uruguayan youngster Ramirez hasn’t settled in just yet. However, Velez are a very good unit and won’t lose easily, especially at home. No side has managed to stop them from scoring on their own turf in the Copa Sudamericana this season and with the experience that they have in their ranks, I can’t help but feel that that record won’t change tonight either!
Visitors Liga de Quito are very experienced in this tournament but there’s one thing experience does not help you with and that’s altitude. As we all know, Liga de Quito play at a great height, which is why they beat pretty much everyone when playing at home. Indeed, that’s primarily why they beat Velez 2-0 last week. I’d go as far as to say that Liga de Quito aren’t a very good side, in my view – they’re simply very good at exploiting their own strengths. Let’s take a look at Liga de Quito’s away record on the continent though, just in case you don’t believe how average this side actually is:
2011 – Libertad Asuncion 1 Liga de Quito 0
2011 – Independiente 1 Liga de Quito 0
2011 – Trujillanos 0 Liga de Quito 1
2011 – Yaracuyanos 1 Liga de Quito 1
2011 – Velez Sarsfield 3 Liga de Quito 0
2011 – Independiente 1 Liga de Quito 1
2011 – Penarol 1 Liga de Quito 0
2011 – Godoy Cruz de Mendoa 2 Liga de Quito 1
2010 – Independiente 2 Liga de Quito 1
2010 – Newell’s Old Boys 0 Liga de Quito 0
2010 – Union San Felipe 4 Liga de Quito 2
2009 – Fluminense 3 Liga de Quito 0
2009 – River Plate Montevideo 2 Liga de Quito 1
Liga de Quito have lost nine out of their last thirteen away games on the continent. They’ve only managed to avoid defeat by playing sides either in Venezuela or playing weak Argentinian sides. We can also take note that Velez stuffed Liga de Quito 3-0 earlier this year in the Copa Libertadores. There have been changes since then but the core of each team is still very similar. Liga de Quito don’t like not playing at altitude and they don’t like playing sides that are better than they are, understandably. They’re weak at attacking on the road and they always concede.
For me, this is Velez’s game to lose. Liga de Quito bring a 2-0 lead into this game from the first leg in Ecuador so they don’t have to attack at all. Velez know how to win at home and attacking is their game so I thoroughly expect them to win this one. Can they beat the -1 Asian Handicap? They could and should. If not, the worst case scenario should be a single-goal victory for Velez Sarsfield as nothing but a win will do here. For me, taking Velez with a -1 Asian Handicap is well worth it at 4/5 tonight.
Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Team news
Italian Serie A:
SSC Napoli – Donadel is absent.
Juventus – Marchisio is absent.