TFT Issue 261!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Today’s game to avoid betting on is Dynamo Kiev vs Metalurg Donetsk. Kiev are the better side; they simply have better players. The odds are a joke, however. I can count the number of times on one hand where they’ve had an easy game with Metalurg and I don’t see that changing today. Dynamo will be tired from the tough game in Stoke last week and have had problems breaking down solid defences all season due to a complete lack of width. Metalurg +1.5 would interest me here if they brought any goal threat at all but they simply don’t; they’re just very good at defending. A 0-0 or 1-0 look likely here so maybe under 2.5 goals if you feel brave but this just looks a nightmare game to me.
Featured game
AEK Larnaca vs Ermis – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Cypriot Division 1 game between AEK Larnaca and Ermis.
AEK Larnaca have done surprisingly well since the insane sacking of Caanen. They’ve unsurprisingly brought in another Dutch coach – Leon Vlemmings – and he’s steered them to a recent win over Israeli opponents Maccabi Haifa, which is a good start. AEK Larnaca aren’t a bad side at all, contrary to what the league table may indicate, and they’re bound to show it sooner or later. Gonzalo Garcia’s as good a forward as you’ll find in Cyprus and I’d not hesitate in labelling Kevin Hofland as the best defender in the division. There’s bags of experience at the back with de Cler alongside Hofland and van Dijk sat in front of them. There’s a lot of ability to dominate sides in this team with their only handicap being not scoring enough goals but generally speaking, this AEK Larnaca side is very good. They’ve not had a great campaign thus far but have still hardly lost any games. For me, AEK Larnaca are easing into their groove and I expect that to continue to show today.
Visitors Ermis are just shit. I wish I could be at least partially complimentary to them but I look at their squad and find no ray of hope for them here. Some sides are at the bottom of the table in their respective leagues because they’ve been unlucky with some results or injuries. That’s not the case for Ermis, though – they’re genuinely the worst side in the division. I like Serjao – he’s a decent enough striker – and Gonzalez is a good midfielder too but what else is there? Absolutely nothing! I’ll give them some credit in that they do have experience in their ranks but they’re dull, predictable, and utterly ineffectual and if they’re still in this division next year then I’ll be amazed.
Ermis are the only side in the division that are yet to score away from home so six losses from six away games isn’t a great surprise. Ermis average conceding nearly two goals per away game and have struggled against the better sides more than usual this season. AEK Larnaca have the players to dominate Ermis and for me, the -1.5 handicap is well worth a flutter today.
Verdict: AEK Larnaca to beat the -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Additional game
Sevilla CF vs Getafe – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
No, no, no! The odds on Sevilla winning this game are ludicrously short!
Ok, Getafe – along with Espanyol – are one of two strange Primera Liga sides that doesn’t tend to show up away from home but that’s the only comprehension I have for the odds on Sevilla winning this game. Sevilla do have some very gifted players, of course, but they’ve got a manager who is making them play very predictable football. They basically give the ball to Jesus Navas and hope he can produce something, which is a shame. Negredo and Kanoute are good strikers and Rakitic is a good midfielder but these players aren’t being used optimally and it’s hurting Sevilla massively. Their defence has started to look vulnerable whenever they sit back and the absence of Caceres tonight is unlikely to improve that. Sevilla are too predictable and too ineffectual in front of goal for me to take them seriously nowadays, to be blunt.
As I said before, Getafe are not a great away side and their record this season shows that. However, they had problems with injuries at the start of the season and integrating a lot of new players and they look to be gradually overcoming those obstacles. You know, in each of their last three away games, Getafe have looked good and made their hosts work each time, scoring at least one goal in each of those games. They’ve played much better football and have even beaten Barcelona and Atletico Madrid respectively recently so they’re certainly bringing some momentum into this game. Do they have the players to trouble Sevilla, though? In my view, they absolutely do. Guiza’s absence means that Fedor will have to lead the line for the Madrid-based outfit but with experienced Diego Castro with him, not to mention Barrada, there’s more than enough in Getafe’s ranks to cause Sevilla problems here.
Maybe Sevilla will win this one but I’d be surprised to see it. They don’t score enough goals to outscore Getafe sufficiently enough for this bet to lose, in my view. Sevilla haven’t beaten a -1 Asian Handicap at home this season and have lost their last two home games, which could happen again tonight if Getafe really turn it on. If Sevilla do win this one, though, I can’t see it being by more than a goal, given how ineffectually they attack. For me, the away win with a +1 Asian Handicap is a bit of a steal at 4/5.
Verdict: Getafe to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Team news
Cypriot Division 1:
AEK Larnaca – Linsen is absent. Mirdacovic is a doubt.
Ermis – Brooks and Blanco are doubts.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovacko – Fujerik is absent. Dosek is a doubt.
Mlada Boleslav – Sirl, Seda, Fabian, Neuwirth, Bulut, and Opiela are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
SonderjyskE – Storkjaer is absent. Ostli returns.
OB Odense – Traore is absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Zaglebie Lubin – No news.
Legia Warsaw – Hubnik is absent.
Romanian Liga:
Dinamo Bucharest – No absentees.
Steaua Bucharest – Tatu and Gardos are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe – Moya, Guiza, Leon, and Ustari are absent.
Sevilla CF – Caceres is absent.