TFT Issue 268!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Anorthosis Famagusta vs Ethnikos Achnas – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Cypriot Division 1 game between heavyweights Anorthosis Famagusta and battling Ethnikos Achnas.
I took Anorthosis to beat Apollon Limassol at weekend because they’re a better side in marginally better condition and it paid off. However, don’t get carried away; this side really isn’t that good nowadays. Their defence looks shoddy and liable to concede at any time and they seem to find it increasingly hard to break through stubborn and resilient sides. Consider that Anorthosis have won two out of six at home this season and you’ll see exactly what I mean. I do think that there are sides in this division that occasionally talented Anorthosis can beat but it just depends who they’re playing as to whether they will or not. For example, you can look at their record of four wins from their past five Division 1 games and be impressed or you can look at who they’ve played and approach it more realistically as they’re not beating anyone that can stop them. Olympiakos Nicosia last season would have given them a game but financial problems have robbed them of lots of quality this year. The same applies for Apollon Limassol. Ermis are the worst side in the division (and Anorthosis only won that game 1-0 at home!) and Anagennisi Deryneia have only just been promoted. I don’t think you could ever criticise a side for winning games and momentum certainly helps them entering games like this but let’s just say I’ll be more impressed when Anorthosis conquer a side that actually takes some beating. Anorthosis have only claimed two good results this season, in my view, and both were in their opening few games as they won at Enosis Neon Paralimni and Ethnikos Achnas respectively, both of which are very hard to face on their own turf. Aside from that, Anorthosis have been wasteful and leaky at the back and I don’t think the odds reflect how average they’re becoming at all.
Visitors Ethnikos Achnas are a side that no club in Cyprus enjoys facing. They’re hungry for every ball, tight, fierce, and well-marshalled. Considering that this side doesn’t boast the quality players that APOEL Nicosia, Omonia Nicosia, or AEK Larnaca have, they do remarkably well at playing like they do. It took Ethnikos Achnas some time to get going this season but consider that they’ve only lost twice in their last seven games and both of those were against APOEL Nicosia and Omonia Nicosia respectively, who are unequivocally the best two sides in the country. Ethnikos have been incredibly good in defence during that time, conceding goals only against the two big Nicosia clubs in their last seven games. We can expect that type of display from them at home but away from home? It’s not common but they’re bringing a lot of momentum into this game because they’ve managed it lately and that deserves a lot of respect. They faced in-form AEL Limassol last match and although their hosts for that game were goal-shy (as always), Ethnikos claimed a priceless 0-0 draw by frustrating their opponents. They’re a very good side when it comes to frustrating opponents and there aren’t many sides more easily frustrated than Anorthosis Famagusta this season, especially with their own financial problems leaving some questions marks over the team. Ethnikos have a lot of experience, a solid and reliable back four, and quality where it counts, most notably in Brazilian attacker Eduardo Pincelli. Their big problem is not scoring enough goals, which can be partially attributed to their defensive style and partially through not having very good strikers. As a defensive side, though, this team really does deserve respect, especially against an overrated heavyweight like Anorthosis.
For me, there’s lots of value on giving the visitors a +1 goal head start here. Giving Ethnikos a +1 goal head start in all their away games this season would mean that they’ve lost once. Giving a +1 goal head start to the away side in all of Anorthosis’ home games this season would mean that they’ve won just once this season. Anorthosis would not have won any of their last three home games against Ethnikos with the visitors being given a +1 goal head start and thus this bet really appeals to me.
Anorthosis don’t like playing sides like this and didn’t even when they had a good team. This side lacks cohesion and grit whereas that’s two things that their opponents have in abundance. Yes, Anorthosis are the better side but for me, there’s more than enough here to go against them. If the visitors lose, which I concede is possible, I would be very surprised to see it being a comprehensive enough victory for this tip to lose. I fancy it being much more likely that Ethnikos will frustrate the hell out of Anorthosis and get a point here. If Ethnikos score against Anorthosis’ dubious defence here then this bet is as good as won, in my humble opinion. I do not rate the hosts in games like this so my call is Ethnikos Achnas to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at evens.
P.S. Anorthosis miss one of their main strikers – Rezek. Konstantinou is a good hitman if given the right service but Anorthosis only tend to do well when they have options up front – they only have one today though.
Verdict: Ethnikos Achnas to win with +1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Cercle Brugge – Sergeant, Balde, Foley, and Iachtchouk are absent.
AA Gent – Smolders, Bruls, Soumahoro, Ba, M’Sila, and Zakaria are absent.
Cypriot Division 1:
Anagennisi Deryneia – Toffas, Gonzalez, Elia, and Kotsonis are absent.
Olympiakos Nicosia – Nicolaou, Carlos Andre, and Mersio are absent.
Anorthosis Famagusta – Marangos, Ramos, Rezek, and Mintikkis are absent.
Ethnikos Achnas – Simov and Kasio are absent.
AEL Limassol – Vouo is absent.
Nea Salamis – No absentees.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
SL Benfica – Luisao returns, as does Gaitan. Mika, Perez, Rodrigo, and Capdevila are absent.
Rio Ave – Paulo Santos, Pateiro, Vilas Boas, Mendes, and Vitor Gomes are absent. Rafa, Jorginho, and Saulo return.