TFT Issue 269!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
AC Milan vs Siena – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter at the San Siro between giants AC Milan and newly-promoted Siena.
You just can’t argue with AC Milan’s home form, can you? Five wins, two draws, and an average of nearly three goals scored per game. You just can’t keep this side down! I genuinely can’t recall the last time that they had a full compliment of players to choose from but they’ve got so much depth that it doesn’t seem to matter. Ibrahimovic, Robinho, Pato, Inzaghi, Cassano, El Shaarawy – it’s just a terrifying list. Cassano is obviously out and Inzaghi has barely featured this season but AC Milan continue to put out an extremely strong attack and I expect that again today. There’s a fair number of absentees at the back with Zambrotta, Nesta, Antonini, and recently Yepes all being sidelined. However, Mexes, Bonera, Thiago Silva etc. are all available, thus proving my point about AC Milan’s depth. There’s so much experience and ability in this side that I cannot help but look favourably upon them to beat the -1.5 handicap today, especially as they’ve done that for four consecutive home games in a row this season.
Visitors Siena don’t have any big absentees today so that’s a good start for them. However, that’s where it ends for them, I’m afraid, as they really should be outclassed in every area of the field today. They may have only lost three out of their seven away games this season but they’re playing a side that will break through their defence and given that defence is all that has bailed Siena out on the road this season, that should be a big problem for the visitors today. They’ve lost three consecutive Serie A games ahead of this one without scoring and although they played out a bizarre 4-4 draw with Palermo mid-week in the Coppa Italia, eventually triumphing on penalties, I just don’t see them having anywhere near enough to trouble their hosts today. Siena have played a lot of football this week due to extra-time against Palermo and this is their third game in seven days; they realistically must be tired.
Therefore, taking AC Milan with a -1.5 handicap really appeals to me here. I think it’s a matter of when AC Milan get the first goal as to how many they’ll actually score but the odds on them beating the -1.5 handicap look good to me.
Verdict: AC Milan to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Additional games
Astra Ploiesti vs CFR Cluj – away win at evens.
I will almost never go against Astra on their own turf because they’re very hard to beat but the recent tensions at the club coupled with their continued absentees (especially in attack) makes this side sitting ducks. They’ve failed to score for three consecutive games now and have scored just twice over their last four home games. Defence is their strength but if they concede at the present time then they lose and that could be fatal here.
CFR Cluj are one of the few sides in the Liga still managing to compose themselves and put in a good stint here and there. They’ve got a good manager and plenty of good players, good enough to do damage in games like these. Weldon, Kapetanos, and Sougou are all very dangerous attackers and with Rafael Bastos, Renan, and Peralta supporting them, Cluj are always capable of scoring goals. They’ve won six out of their last eight games and haven’t failed to score in a competitive game since August, which gives hosts Astra a real problem here, in my view.
Nothing is ever certain in Ploiesti but for me, there’s value on the away win at evens given that I expect Cluj to score and I can’t see how the hosts will.
Verdict: CFR Cluj to win at evens.
Targu Mures vs Dinamo Bucharest – lay Dinamo Bucharest at evens.
I like this one probably a lot more than I should but I think Targu Mures are good enough to cause problems for the league leaders today.
Targu Mures have got good players, let’s not forget. The reason that they’re so far down the table is because they signed a lot of good players at the same time pre-season and it took them ages to gel. Targu Mures don’t have the experience nor the time to allow them to gel without morale rapidly descending, hence their predicament. However, they’ve now gone four games without defeat, winning twice and drawing twice along the way, and to me, that means we need to respect them. Bus is a good prospect for the hosts, as is Bumba, and there’s bags of experience in this Targu Mures side so I think we need to be aware of how quickly they’re able to climb this table. Even wtihout a convincing start to their campaign, very few sides have won at Targu Mures this season and now that they’re playing well, I expect them to cause problems for Dinamo Bucharest today.
Visitors Dinamo Bucharest have over-achieved this season and are due some “down time”; I think that time is now. The derby defeat against Steaua hit them hard and they’ve subsequently put in two average/weak displays with a 2-1 win against Petrolul Ploiesti in the Cupa Romaniei and a 0-0 draw at a decrepit and lacklustre Astra Ploiesti side. Confidence is ebbing low in the Dinamo camp and given that they’re not a particularly good side nowadays, I think it’s fair to start doubting them. They don’t have the quality that they used to. Indeed, only Bakaj and Alexe impress me for them nowadays although Rus can have his moments. Niculae and Danciulescu are very good finishers; give them the service and they will score goals. Will they get the service with heads dropping though? I don’t think it’ll be as prominent; let’s put it that way. There’s experience in this Dinamo squad but their defensive ability is pretty limited at best and I think we’ll see more of that now that Dinamo heads are dropping.
There’s risk in this bet, of course, especially if you’re a statistics whore. Dinamo are a better side than Targu Mures, to be fair. However, the odds on them winning this game are way, way too short, in my view. Dinamo are not playing well and have been over-achieving whereas the hosts are playing well and are frequently underestimated. For me, the value is in laying Dinamo today.
Verdict: Lay Dinamo Bucharest at evens.
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Real Zaragoza – both sides to score at 10/11.
The games are piling up for Los Leones and it’s beginning to show. Bielsa was forced into changes mid-week to rest some of his stars and although they lost 4-2 in France, they put up a good showing and frankly didn’t deserve to lose. However, therein lies Bilbao’s problem; this side simply cannot defend. It doesn’t help that Bielsa enjoys deploying playmaker Javi Martinez alongside nutcase Amorebieta, nor that he enjoys sticking winger de Marcos at left-back. Those moves improve Bilbao’s attacking game and they have looked good going forward this season; their passing and movement has been second only to Barcelona and Real Madrid, to me. However, they have a lot to learn and it shows. No Llorente again for Bilbao means that I doubt their ability to win this game because I think they’ll concede and I’m not sure they’re composed enough in front of goal to make it count because Toquero simply isn’t good enough, hard-working though he is. Therefore, I would strongly recommend avoiding the 1×2 market.
However, the goal/goal market appeals to me a lot here. Zaragoza have been remarkably unlucky lately and I think that luck may change following their 1-1 draw at Alcorcon earlier this week in the Copa del Rey. We all know how good Juan Carlos is and if they feed Luis Garcia and Helder Postiga then Zaragoza will ultimately score goals. Barrera’s pace is a threat and Zaragoza are generally a good passing side. I think Zaragoza will finally start converting the chances that they’ve been creating but failing to score lately after they finally got the monkey off their backs with a goal at Alcorcon and a suspect Bilbao defence could be perfect for them to face with that in mind.
Therefore, my call is for both sides to score here. Both sides have scored in five out of the last seven meetings between the two sides and the window of opportunity is there for it to be repeated today with Bilbao looking weak at the back and Zaragoza due a bit of luck. Again, I can’t advise you enough against betting on the 1×2 market because Bilbao are not doing enough at the back but both sides scoring in this game really interests me.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
Team news
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried – Karner, Hammerer, and Riegler are absent.
Sturm Graz – Holzl, Gratzei, Szabics, Feldhofer, Samuel are absent. Kienast returns.
Rapid Vienna – Novota, Schrammel, and Prokopic are absent. Burgstaller returns.
Admira Wacker – Palla, Ledezma, and Windbichler are absent.
SV Mattersburg – Schartner, Spuller, and Doleschal are absent.
Wiener Neustadt – No absentees.
SV Kapfenberg – Pavlov is absent.
Wacker Innsbruck – Loffler and Harding are absent.
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Adler, Toprak, Barnetta, and Renato Augusto are absent.
Nurnberg – Pinola, Nilsson, Frantz, Judt, Chandler, and Rakovsky are absent.
Hamburger SV – Arslan, Sala, and Berg are absent.
Augsburg – Bellinghausen, de Roeck, Jentzsch, Langkamp, Mohrle, Bah, Callsen-Bracker, Ndjeng, Rafael, and Thurk are absent.
SC Freiburg – Barth, Mujdza, Bickel, and Schuster are absent.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Koch, Subotic, Bender, Gotze, Kringe, and Leitner are absent.
Hoffenheim – Compper, Jaissle, Obasi, and Ibertsberger are absent.
Hertha BSC Berlin – Franz and Mijatovic are absent.
VfL Wolfsburg – Hitzlsperger, Hleb, Kahlenberg, and Kreuls are absent.
VfB Stuttgart – Ziegler, Delpierre, Celozzi, Molinaro, Audel, and Boulahrouz are absent.
Schalke 04 – Kluge, Kenia, Hoogland, Fahrmann, Moravek, Farfan, and Wiegel are absent.
Werder Bremen – Vander, Balogun, Boenisch, Silvestre, Sokratis, Borowski, Ekici, Hunt, Kroos, Avdic, and Stevanovic are absent.
Italian Serie A:
Chievo Verona – Rigoni is absent.
Cagliari – Nene, Ekdal, Avramov, Astori, Eriksson, and Cossu are absent. Conti is a doubt.
Fiorentina – Kroldrup is absent. Montolivo, Cassani, Cerci, and Gulan are doubts.
Atalanta Bergamo – Capelli and Doni are absent.
AC Milan – Gattuso, Abate, Antonini, Flamini, Cassano, Nesta, Zambrotta, and Yepes are absent.
Siena – Vergassola and Belmonte are absent. Del Grosso is a doubt.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heracles Almelo – Maertens, Pedro, Looms, Hengelman, and Ter Horst are absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Snijders, Chanturia, Drost, van Diermen, Hofs, and Piiroja are absent.
NEC Nijmegen – Wellenberg, Nijland, and Latupeirissa are absent.
VVV Venlo – Lissen, Gentenaar, Leemans, and Kruijsen are absent.
Roda JC Kerkrade – Hupperts and Kiesczek are absent.
Excelsior Rotterdam – Nuytinck, Oost, Eekman, Vincken, and Scheimann are absent.
Groningen – Johansson, Suk, Ivens, Kwakman, van de Laak, and Enevoldsen are absent.
FC Utrecht – Lensky, Bulthuis, Mulenga, Wuytens, Martensson, Fernandez, Asare, and Oar are absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Guimaraes – Freire and Faouzi are absent. Joao Paulo and Targino return.
Gil Vicente – Sandro, Vilela, and Batista are absent. Murta and Lima return.
Porto – Kleber, Rodriguez, Fucile, Guarin, and Defour are absent.
Maritimo Funchal – Olberdam, Roberto Sousa, and Rafael Miranda are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen – Folly and Considine are absent. Fallon, Arnason, and Mawene are doubts.
Hibernian – Murray and Griffiths are absent. O’Connor and Osbourne are doubts.
Hearts – Grainger, Kyle, Barr, Glen, and Santana are absent.
Dunfermline Athletic – Cardle, McCann, Phinn, Easton, Thomson, Rutkiewicz, Bell, and McDougall are absent.
Kilmarnock – Buijs, Silva, Fowler, and Heffernan are absent. Sissoko is a doubt.
Dundee United – Swanson and Severin are absent.
Motherwell – Hollis and Saunders are absent.
St.Mirren – Thomson is absent.
Rangers – Ness, Aluko, and Naismith are absent. Goian and Lafferty are doubts.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Hogg, Davis, Doran, Chippendale, Meekings, Proctor, Piermayr, and Tudur Jones are absent.