TFT Issue 27!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game:
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs SL Benfica
I’ve boldly entered a hotly-contested Lisbon derby for this tip today so caution really is emphasised as we know how hot-blooded derbies can be! In fact, I have a personal ruling of not tipping or betting on the 1×2 market during in any Portuguese or Greek “El Clasico” games due to them being even more unreliable than the usual derbies and that applies here too.
However, I do have to look favourably upon both sides scoring in this game tonight. Sporting’s home record isn’t flattering this season but they’ll be highly motivated for this game and they’ve only failed to score in one home game in the Liga Sagres this season so they should register at least once here. Sporting have already hosted what I can only describe as a superior Porto side but still drew 1-1 due to the somewhat unpredictable nature of Portuguese derbies. Sporting have bagged in five out of their last six home games against SL Benfica in all competitions and they do have the necessary firepower to do so tonight with Postiga in attack. However, I am a little concerned because Postiga has a limited level of support from midfield with long-term absentees Vukcevic and Izmailov unavailable for this game and now Chilean playmaker Valdes being ruled out too. However, his Chilean compatriot Fernandez is finally back in business and he’ll have to do the business for the hosts tonight if Postiga is to get the many chances he tends to need before converting. Either way, the motivation of Sporting is high here and you tend to find that they produce the goods in games like these, although their defending leaves a lot to be desired at times. Nonetheless, Sporting really should register at least one goal in this game tonight.
Visitors SL Benfica will be favoured by many for this game and the bookies know it, hence the seemingly juicy price of 6/5 on the away win. I cannot stress enough how dodgy Portuguese derbies are and I’d not bet on the 1×2 market if you gave me they money yourselves! That’s not to say that Benfica aren’t the better side here, because they are, and they have been for about two years now at least. Derbies rarely work out here though, so I’m a little nervous on that front. Nonetheless, Benfica welcome back Saviola for this game as he’s overcame his mid-week bout of sickness so their potency should be sky-high, especially with towering Paraguayan target man Cardozo being a handful all of the time. Benfica have a lot of attacking talent in their team and although they miss a few players today, Jorge Jesus still has a whole arsenal of players who can score goals so I’ll give Benfica their due respect here.
Benfica have won an astounding fourteen games in a row now in all competitions and thus bring great momentum into this game. They believe in themselves and you could see it during their game with VfB Stuttgart mid-week where they weren’t at their best but still won. However, all good runs end sometime and I think Sporting might take extra pleasure in attempting to be the side that punctures it and given the unpredictability of such games, I think Sporting may just edge this one in bizarre circumstances. However, I do think that the stage is set rather well for both sides to register at least one goal here so my call is for both sides to score at 5/6 in a heated Lisbon derby.
Team news – Sporting Clube de Lisboa miss Vukcevic, Valdes, and Izmailov for this game whereas SL Benfica miss Fernandez, Alan Kardec, and Ruben Amorim.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.