TFT Issue 272!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Cagliari vs AC Milan – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Today’s featured game sees Serie A heavyweights AC Milan travel to Sardinia to take on Cagliari. In previous years, I’d give Cagliari a lot more respect than I’m about to but I’ve seen so little from them this season that I have no choice but to oppose them.
Cagliari’s big problem is scoring goals. Ok, last season, we had Matri and Acquafresca doing the damage with Nene providing the creativity and that worked really well. However, Matri joined Juventus, Acquafresca joined Bologna, and Nene has been left to carry the attack. The problem I have with Cagliari’s replacements is that they’ve not required and courage. They’ve signed players that have played in South America longer than they should have due to not being consistent enough in front of goal – Thiago Ribeiro and Larrivey respectively – and that in itself tells you that they’re not good enough to play at this level. Again, Cagliari fall back on Nene to make things happen but there’s only so much he can do. Given he’s absent for this game, I rate Cagliari’s chances of scoring against even a makeshift AC Milan defence as minimal. Even worse for Cagliari is the absence of midfield regular Blondini and the doubts over influential midfielder Conti. If Cagliari lose the midfield battle here then this will be an absolutely dominant away win. Cagliari’s defensive record is good because they protect their defence will with midfield. If they lose that and have no firepower then this will be a very, very one-sided game.
To make matters worse for Cagliari, they’re facing an AC Milan side with arguably the strongest level of firepower in the whole of Italy. Ibrahimovic, Robinho, and Pato are lethal enough but that’s without including the absent Cassano nor the benched Inzaghi nor the hot prospect El Shaarawy. Cagliari would kill to have any of those forwards; not many clubs wouldn’t! AC Milan have a strong midfield behind them with Aquilani, Seedorf, van Bommel, Boateng, and in-form Nocerino, just to name a few. Defensively, AC Milan are still a bit short but their depth will shine through, as ever, with Mexes and Thiago Silva set to appear as the centre-back pairing. Zambrotta returns for AC Milan to lessen their full-back “crisis” but even if he didn’t, Cagliari are still light years behind AC Milan in terms of quality and I really expect it to show here.
Cagliari’s home record this season looks strong when it comes to not losing. However, Lazio demonstrated how easily a good attacking display can destroy Cagliari with a 0-3 win here a few weeks ago and that’s the kind of display I expect from AC Milan tonight. The visitors are so much better than the hosts that it’s untrue and I’ll be very surprised if they don’t win this one. With the firepower at their disposal, I think it’s more than worthwhile to take a chance on AC Milan -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Verdict: AC Milan to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Additional game
Siena vs Fiorentina – both sides to score at evens.
I like this one more than I probably should as Siena’s problem this season has been scoring goals. I was watching Siena play AC Milan away at weekend whilst in the casino and was impressed with the chances that they created, although again, they didn’t take them, which I choose to believe was partially because AC Milan got close to them each time.
However, Siena have the perfect opportunity to score goals here. The only side of no particular ability to keep a clean sheet here has been Genoa with Siena generally being able to cause problems for sides of a similar quality level. Italy U21 attacker Destro and ex-Torino hitman Calaio do prove to be a threat for a poor defence and that’s what they’re up against today – a poor defence. Fiorentian have not been convincing this season en mass and with still absent Kroldrup and Cassani out too tonight, Fiorentina still aren’t at 100%. They’ve had lots of different defensive combinations this season and that inconsistency is hurting them. They’ve kept two clean sheets in seven attempts away from home in Serie A this season and thus I expect Fiorentina to concede against a determined host tonight.
However, Fiorentina have Montolivo and Jovetic back to 100% for this game and to me, that says that they can and will score goals. True enough, Gilardino isn’t what he was but he’ll score if you give him enough chances and those two do manage to give him opportunities, as does Cerci. Don’t get me wrong; this is far from a dominant Fiorentina midfield. Indeed, midfield is where they lose most of their games because they don’t have a box-to-box general and that’s a real issue for them. However, they’re good on the ball and do make things happen so I think that they’ll score here.
The 1×2 market is a huge “no go” for me because although Fiorentina are better than Siena, they’ve shown it very few times this season. This game means more to Siena as home form is all that prevents them from a quick return to Serie B and thus I think they’ll match Fiorentina here, if not better them. Again, no result would surprise me on that front. However, taking both sides to score at evens looks a bit of a steal to me here. Siena really need to score in home games like this and Fiorentina absolutely have the firepower to score so my call is to take both sides to score in this game.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Team news
Italian Serie A:
Cagliari – Nene, Astori, Eriksson, El-Kabir, and Biondini are absent. Conti is a doubt.
AC Milan – Gattuso, Cassano, Abate, Flamini, Nesta, and Yepes are absent.
Siena – Vergassola and Belmonte are absent.
Fiorentina – Cassani and Kroldrup are absent. Ljajic and Salifu are doubts.
Romanian Liga:
Vaslui – Canu, Balace, Annang, Balaur, and Cerniauskas are absent. Farkas and Sanmartean are doubts. Vaslui president left for Rapid Bucharest a few weeks ago. Bribery accusations against three unammed Vaslui players lately. Financial backer of Vaslui will decide after this game whether to continue supporting the team or not – big motivation to do well.
Rapid Bucharest – Glauber, Herea, and Ezequias are absent. D.Coman, Cretu, M.Roman, and Surdu are doubts.