TFT Issue 281!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Aston Villa vs Swansea City – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Premier League game between Aston Villa and Swansea City in the Midlands. I feel a little hard done to, having tipped Chelsea vs Aston Villa to go under 3 goals as Chelsea eventually losing the game 1-3 was entirely down to them giving the ball away in ridiculous circumstances and Aston Villa capitalising.
However, I think we’ll see a much different game here. I genuinely don’t think it’s a case of Villa getting used to McLeish’s approach; I just don’t think they mix well on a more permanent basis. Villa are an attacking side and have been for year and playing a defensive game just doesn’t suit them. Yes, they’ll bring momentum into this game from their win at Stamford Bridge and they did work hard in the game but it cannot be overlooked that it wasn’t down to them playing well that they won it – it was down to Chelsea’s morale and composure dropping like a stone, giving the ball away in stupid places, and Villa taking their chances. I’ll bow to Villa for scoring the goals that they did – composure isn’t an easy thing to come by when you’re as barren as Villa are in front of goal – but attacking is not something that this side do well under McLeish and I expect to see that prove to be the case again today as it has done many times this season.
Swansea City can defend, if nothing else. They irritated me by equalising against Spurs in their last game but to be honest, that does show the character of the team. I can’t name a single home game this season that they’ve deserved to lose and the game with Spurs was no exception. Their problem is and always has been scoring goals. They work hard for their manager and they’re very well-organised. Hell, only Manchester United have kept more clean sheets than Swansea City have this season so let’s not write them off from getting a surprise result here. I think they’ll falter as the season winds on because they don’t really have the depth nor the experience to maintain such a hard-working and efficient approach but I do think it’ll work for the present time at least.
It takes a side with strong creativity to break through this Swansea side and Aston Villa just don’t have that. They’ve got great attackers in Bent and Agbonlahor but they lack a classy midfielder that they need to really damage Swansea here. I can’t look past Villa edging this game because they are the better side and they’ve got players that score goals, given chance. However, backing Villa at 4/5 is a joke, in my view – this side has proven far too many times this season that they’re ineffectual at breaking sides down and with their goalscoring reliability being low at best, I cannot endorse backing Villa here. Indeed, I’d be more tempted to give Swansea the +1 AH if forced but I’m not entering any other markets than the over/unders here because Swansea will come to defend and Villa really should struggle to break through. Therefore, my call is under 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional games
Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Blackburn enter this game on the back of a completely unexpected 2-3 win at Old Trafford against Manchester United and that win will give them masses of confidence today. I can’t pretend it was a stroke of genius from boss Steve Kean or that Blackburn played out of their skins – it was simply that Ferguson underestimated his opponents with his squad selection (more specifically the lack of options on the bench) and the players that did play didn’t largely do what they should. United would win that fixture nineteen times out of twenty so I won’t read much into it there.
However, it cannot be denied that Blackburn will bring huge confidence into this game as a result so they should fancy their chances here. Indeed, it’s a must-win game for Blackburn and although not all of the crowd are behind them, they’re still working hard and it’s paying dividends. They managed to cunningly rest Dunn and Hoilett against United and I’m confident they’ll play today as a result. They’ve still got an unbelievable amount of defensive casualties though and that should take its toll here.
Stoke have become an over 2.5 goals side since they’ve bizarrely lost the ability to defend. They’re still a solid unit with aerial threats all over the park so never underestimate them. They’re very strong physically and mentally and boss Tony Pulis is usually spot on with his tactics. I wouldn’t rule out Stoke nicking a cheeky win here, to be honest – they’re a better unit than Blackburn and are far better equipped to play so many games in a short space of time than Blackburn are. That’s another story entirely, however. Instead, I’m going to focus on Stoke’s lethargic approach to defending lately and their continual threat in front of goal and thus I rate the chances of this one going over 2.5 goals quite highly here.
Yakubu is on-fire at the moment and I’d not hesitate to back him as an anytime goalscorer in this game as a result. As for the 1×2 market – just cut your losses and avoid betting on it. For me, the over 2.5 goals market is appealing here as it’s generously-priced and this game should be more open than it looks so I think there’s a good chance it’ll come in, just as it easily did when the two sides met at the Britannia Stadium a few weeks back.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Fulham vs Arsenal – lay Arsenal at 9/10.
Arsene Wenger said a week or two ago that he’d have to consider resting Robin van Persie during this run of games for Arsenal because he’s played a lot of games for them this season and they basically need him to keep carrying them with his constant stream of goals. Well, he’s not been rested at all in their previous two games so either Wenger is talking through his arse or they will actually rest him today. The latter has to be taken into consideration as their African forwards won’t be around much longer due to their African Nations commitments so Wenger surely has to make use of them and rest a player that is proven to get injured in every season? Thierry Henry is back, too, although I’m not sure if he’s able to feature or not today.
Even if van Persie does play – is he really 100% right now? He’s not scored in open play for about three to four weeks now he’s only human like the rest of us – maybe he does need a rest after all. Either way, you’ll note the correlation between him not scoring and Arsenal not scoring because that’s what happens. Arsenal have some terrific passers of the ball and an outstanding manager but only van Persie is consistent in front of goal. Worryingly, Arsenal have only scored more than once in a Premier League game on just two occasions out of their last seven Premier League games. Given their hilarious approach to defending, I think it’s fair to assume that they’re going to need to score more goals going forward or they’ll soon be dropping points and that’s exactly what I expect here.
As per usual, Arsenal have injury problems although this time it’s more focused on their left-back area, where they currently have…nobody who can play there. Wenger has admitted that he’s in the market for a loanee in January to help out but for the time being, they just don’t have anyone to play there. Now, Martin Jol will almost certainly tell Bryan Ruiz or Moussa Dembele to drift out to the right to cause problems and if they do then I rate Fulham’s chances of scoring here rather highly, to be honest. They’re a very good side when playing at home and every side in the Premier League knows it. Jol has got them playing good football right now and they really believe in themselves, which must be encouraging for Fulham fans to see as they were awful at the start of the season. Duff has a chance of returning today, which further boosts their ability to harm Arsenal’s backline, and I think that they’re more than capable of springing a shock here. The media are intent on pointing out the absence of Zamora and Johnson but given that Johnson can’t hit a barn door from three yards at the moment and given that Zamora is not in Jol’s plans, I’m really not too concerned with the fact that Orlando Sa may well lead the line, as inexperienced as he is.
For me, there’s a lot of value on Fulham today. I think Arsenal are looking leggy, suspect at the back, and aren’t being clinical enough in front of goal. A goal from Fulham here should really upset Arsenal’s rhythm and to be honest, I quite fancy taking Fulham with draw no bet cover. However, my main call here will be to lay Arsenal at 9/10 because there simply aren’t many sides in the Premier League that I wouldn’t oppose with the same bet whilst Fulham are playing at Craven Cottage, which is a notoriously tough ground, especially for the big sides!
Verdict: Lay Arsenal at 9/10.
Team news
Scottish Premier League:
Hibernian – Osbourne is absent. O’Connor is a doubt.
Hearts – Grainger, Kyle, Glen, and Santana are absent. Black and Hamill are doubts.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Chippendale, Proctor, Foran, and Tudur Jones are absent.
St.Johnstone – Wright and Sheridan are absent.
Dundee United – Swanson and Severin are absent.
Aberdeen – No absentees.
Dunfermline Athletic – Easton, Rutkiewicz, Gallacher, McCann, Phinn, Bell, and McDougall are absent.
Celtic – Kayal, Lustig, and Majstorovic are absent.
Kilmarnock – Buijs and O’Leary are absent.
St.Mirren – No absentees.
Rangers – Whittaker is absent.
Motherwell – Saunders and Jennings are absent.