TFT Issue 285!
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Featured game
Lecce vs Juventus – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Serie A game in southern Italy between Lecce and Juventus.
Lecce are notoriously hard to play against because of their fearless players and passionate fans. Although suicidal defensively, Lecce specialise in attacking sides and scoring goals and thus to beat them, your side has to outscore theirs.
Now, that might not be an issue for Juventus here but one thing is for sure – they’re in for a hard game. AC Milan came here, thought that they were in for an easy game and found themselves 3-0 down at half-time, needing an inspirational second-half display to take advantage of Lecce’s lax approach to defending in an eventual 3-4 victory. Lazio had a similar approach to this game as AC Milan but were ran close in their 2-3 victory. Lecce love to upset the “big boys” of Italian football and I think that they’re going to give unbeaten Juventus a really tough game today.
Juventus are arguably the best side in Italy at the moment. They’ve got lots of quality throughout their squad and they’re playing good football, too. However, one concern I always have with Juventus is their apparent inability to defend against long balls. Defending against long balls was a corner stone of Italian football in the 90’s so why Juventus seem to have lost that ability is beyond me. However, I’m sure Lecce will try to test that out today and who knows – they may even have some joy.
Juventus could and should win this game. Will they? I’m not getting involved in the 1×2 market as Lecce are too good at home for me to see any value on Juventus here. There will be a lot of temperamental players on this field as Lecce are quite hot-blooded themselves with plenty of South Americans and Juventus have a couple of lunatics e.g. Chiellini so don’t be surprised to see cards here. However, I do see a lot of value in going over 2.5 goals at 9/10 as I can’t see this game ending in any other fashion than over 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
You know me by now, guys – I’ll usually take the frequently-underrated Wellington Phoenix to win at home but it seems that they’ve been rather overrated here as I see no value in backing them at around 8/11. This side can outscore any side that they like at home but let’s bear in mind that their attacking approach means that they usually concede heavily at home so all it takes is a bad day at the office for the Phoenix to not win this game. Therefore, I’m staying well away from the 1×2 market here.
However, over 2.5 goals interests me a lot for the reasons mentioned above. The Phoenix only know how to attack at home with their defence frequently conceding and Perth Glory can take advantage of that today, in my view. The Glory got a credible 3-3 draw with reigning champions Brisbane Roar in their last match and that gives them a platform to build upon here. They’re still not cohesive enough to win games like these, in my view – they just don’t have the spirit nor the defence to manage it. However, they do have the firepower and although it only shows sporadically, I do think it’ll show today as the defence of their hosts isn’t particularly impressive.
In my view, this game should really clear over 2.5 goals quite easily today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Manchester City vs Manchester United – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Enter the 1×2 market here if you dare but I won’t be. I’m a United fan and if United play as they have in the last two games then they’ll comfortably lose this game. If they play like they did in the five games prior to those two losses then United will win this one. City aren’t playing as well as their results suggest and both sides are decimated with injuries. Both sides are actually starting to mirror one another, ironically – City can’t play without Silva and United can’t play without Nani. United have drastically out-of-form strikers (barring Berbatov and Welbeck) and a side that aren’t working hard, hence additional pressure on their defence and thus conceding goals much more easily than normal. City’s defence is average at best and their striker situation isn’t great with Balotelli supposedly out for this game. That said, United cannot deal with strength at the moment and Dzeko is strong if nothing else. However, City have no more than three fit midfielders and reportedly have no more than seventeen fit players for this game so they’re not ideally placed themselves. With City boasting an average defence and United’s defence playing like an average defence, I can only see goals in a game that shouldn’t have as much pressure as the usual Premier League games for either side. The Premier League is the aim for both sides here so I think we may see a more “relaxed” game here, if that makes sense. That should allow creativity to take over, both sides to score, and ultimately over 2.5 goals being achieved. I just find it hard to see either side not scoring in this game but neither side wants a replay with so many games yet to play so over 2.5 goals is my call for this derby.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Panathinaikos vs Kerkyra – both sides to score at 13/8.
There’s only one good side in Greece this season and that’s Olympiakos Piraeus, who look fresh and confident under Valverde. Panathinaikos look slow, stagnant, and predictable. They concede far too many goals and struggle with sides that they should ease past. For today’s game, Panathinaikos’ defensive players have been decimated with centre-backs Sarriegi and Boumsong both out, as is number one goalkeeper Kapino and experienced holding midfielder Katsouranis. With Ninis still on the sidelines, Pana’s chances of beating anyone this season have stemmed entirely from ex-Liverpool winger Seb Leto, who is having a great season. Pana just look poor, though, and their average strikers make me wonder if they’ll even win this one. Fortunately for the hosts, Kerkyra are pretty awful and will most likely lose whilst playing away from their beloved Corfu. However, they’ve not conceded in three games and they’ve won their last two so they do bring momentum into this game. They’re a bit lightweight up front with only ex-Spartak Moscow attacker Maznov providing any kind of threat but against a Panathinaikos side utterly bereft of players in key defensive areas, you have to fancy in-form Kerkyra to rock the boat here. For me, both sides scoring in this game is priced incredibly generously at 13/8 and thus that is my call here.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 13/8.
Getafe vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – both sides to score at 4/5.
I love Bilbao to bits but they can’t keep a clean sheet for love nor money and I doubt that’ll change today. Getafe are gradually improving and always show up at home so I expect them to show up today. However, Bilbao’s football this season has been spellbinding under Bielsa at times and Iker Muniain especially is really enjoying his football right now. However, his decision to keep fielding central midfielder Martinez at centre-back is causing problems. Yes, Bilbao can pass the ball out of their back four better but when paired with Amorebieta, for example, Bilbao have no pace nor acceleration in their centre-backs and Martinez’s positioning is questionable at the most complimentary of times. Attack-wise, Bilbao are absolutely lethal and I do expect them to score here as they’ve got a whole host of options with Susaeta, Muniain, Llorente, Herrera etc. all capable of wreaking havoc on the hosts. However, again, this side cannot keep a clean sheet without a lot of fortune and I doubt that they’ll manage to keep a clean sheet here. Getafe have only failed to score in two home games in the Primera Liga this season and although hardly what you would call a “prolific goalscoring” side, they tend to be a threat and should be again today.
For me, taking both sides to score in this one should be a safe bet although I’m fully aware that they’re famous last words!
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix – Pantelis is absent.
Perth Glory – Sikora, Coyne, Neville, Young, and Pantelidis are absent. Smeltz and Andrezinho are doubts.
Sydney FC – Carle is a doubt. Kisel returns.
Central Coast Mariners – Zwaanswijk returns.
Gold Coast United – Porter, Moss, and Broadfoot are absent. Anderson and MacAllister are doubts.
Melbourne Heart – Taseski, Kalmar, Ibrahim, and Zahra are absent. Germano, Srhoj, and Fred are doubts.
Cypriot Division 1:
Enosis Neon Paralimni – Yakubu, Petkov and Moukouri are absent.
AEL Limassol – Dede, Enrique, and Airosa are absent.
Alki Larnaca – Vansonelos is absent. Tanase may debutise.
APOEL Nicosia – Boaventura, Ailton, Mantouka, Poursaitides, Kissas, Morais, and Konstantinou are absent.
Greek Super League:
Panathinaikos – Sarriegi, Boumsong, Katsouranis, Ninis, Christodoulopoulos, Kapino, Petropoulos, and Owusu-Abeyie are absent.
Kerkyra – Mixos and Kododimos are absent.
Aris Salonika – No absentees. Temporary caretakers in charge of team as manager sacked.
PAS Giannina – Karim, Fegrous, Buzid, and Pandos are absent.
Atromitos – Zuela is absent.
OFI Crete – No absentees.
Xanthi – No absentees.
PAOK Salonika – Papazoglou and Georgiadis are absent. Vieirinha and Contreras have left.
Doxa Dramas – No absentees.
Olympiakos Piraeus – Fejsa, Orbaiz, Ibagaza, Holebas, Abdoun, Poutouridis, and Daskalakis are absent.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Brighi, Capelli, and Doni are absent.
Bologna – Cruz, Kone, and Portanova are absent. Ramirez is a doubt.
Cagliari – Conti, Eriksson, Perico, Rui Sampaio, and Nene are absent. Agostini and Astori are doubts.
Catania – Llama is absent. Suazo is a doubt.
Cesena – Martinho, Martinez, Malonga, and Ghezzal are absent. Colucci and Guana are doubts.
Fiorentina – Kroldrup and Babacar are absent.
Genoa – Bovo, Palacio, and Kaladze are absent. Veloso, Kucka, Constant, and Birsa are doubts.
Juventus – Borriello is absent.
Lecce – Carrozzieri, Falcone, and Giandonato are absent. Corvia, Julio Sergio, Ofere, and Olivera are doubts.
AC Milan – Abate, Flamini, Gattuso, and Yepes are absent. Seedorf, Roma, and Aquilani are doubts.
SSC Napoli – Lavezzi is absent. Donadel and Britos are doubts.
Novara – Giorgi, Ludi, Radovanovic, and Lisuzzo are absent. Pinardi is a doubt.
Palermo – Hernandez, Ilicic, Pisano, and Zahavi are absent.
AS Roma – Burdisso, Cassetti, Osvaldo, and Pizarro are absent. Rosi, Borini, and De Rossi are doubts.
Udinese – Coda and Badu are doubts.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Rio Ave – No news.
Pacos de Ferreira – Michel returns. Tony and Ozeia debutise.
Maritimo Funchal – Roberge and Ruben Ferreira are absent. Igor, Fidelis, Olberdam, and Pecanha return.
Olhanense – Joao Goncalves, Jander, Andre Micael, Vitor Vinha, Nuno Piloto, Luis Filipe, Fernando Alexandre are absent. New coach Sergio Conceicao. Vasco Fernandes and Jorge Araujo return.
Gil Vicente – Roberto and Yero are absent. Rodrigo Galo debutises.
CD Nacional de Madeira – Mihelic and Mateus are absent. Stojanovic, Edgar, Costa, and Danielson return.
Vitoria Guimaraes – Pedro Mendes is absent. Faouzi, Renan, and Freire return.
Feirense – Carlos Fonseca, Rabiola, Henrique, and Serginho are absent. Miguel Pedro and Andersson return.
Uniao de Leiria – Luis Leal is absent. Ogu debutises. Brigido returns.
SL Benfica – Enzo Perez and Ruben Amorim are absent. Moran, David Simao, Gaitan, and Artur return.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Lass, Botelho, and Pacheco are absent.
Sevilla CF – Moral and Kanoute are absent.
Getafe – Lopo, Leon, and Ustari are absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Gurpegi, Castillo, and Ocio are absent.
Villarreal CF – Musacchio, Catala, and Rossi are absent.
Valencia CF – Maduro, Albelda, and Canales are absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Amaya, Pozuelo, and Vadillo are absent.
Sporting Gijon – Sangoy and Leon are absent.
Espanyol – Lopez, Marquez, and Mattioni are absent.
Barcelona – Villa and Afellay are absent.