TFT Issue 286!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
HJK Helsinki vs FC Lahti – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Finnish Liiga Cup game between HJK Helsinki and FC Lahti.
I’m going to explain a bit about the Liiga Cup, first of all. It’s a pre-season tournament that most Scandinavian countries operate as a way of generating match fitness for players. Until recently, there was no award for this tournament but the Finnish FA have brought in a couple of perks to make it more competitive, namely a small cash prize for the winner and a bye to the latter stages of the Suomen Cup so it is worth winning, at long last. The Finnish FA have shaken it up a bit this year, too – they’ve made it into three groups of four instead of two groups of six. I don’t see that having a massive impact as there are two good sides and two average/poor sides in all barring Group “A” which has three good sides in it.
So – what’s happened with HJK over the pre-season? Well, they’ve lost another core player in Alexander Ring with the promising youngster having joined Borussia Moenchengladbach. He joins Rafinha, Pukki, Bah, and Ojala on the “top quality players that HJK have said goodbye to” list. However, we made the point last season that HJK had enough quality players to make two top-class Veikkausliiga sides and we’ll now see that happen, in my view, although as one squad as HJK have elected not to replace their departed players.
Muurinen signed Perovuo before the end of last season and that was a stroke of genius, really – he’s easily one of the best central midfielders in Finland for my money. It’s no coincidence that Honka have failed to be anywhere near their best since he left them; let’s put it that way! Therefore, the departure of Ring and Bah don’t massively concern me. As far as European football goes, it will hurt HJK as they’re not as good as last season but they’re more than good enough to still dominate Finland, in my view. HJK did sign PK-35 Helsinki youngster Saskela as one for the future and they secured the signing of on-loan centre-back Tim Lahti from Haka Valkeakoski so although they’ve not been massively active in the market, they have been efficient, which is impressive. Lahti will replace Ojala and Woodbine (who was signed before the end of last season) will replace Rafinha. The one person that HJK may bring in is Antti Okkonen from MyPa Anjalankoski. If they sign him then it’s a superb move for them, in my view. He’s been the heartbeat of MyPa for years and if he leaves then MyPa have to be happy that only one side gets relegated from the Veikkausliiga! Okkonen is a good and experienced midfielder and would make HJK’s squad as strong as ever, leaving the only unreplaced player as striker Teemu Pukki. Okkonen is only on trial at HJK for now but is eligible to play in their Liiga Cup games.
So, yeah – Muurinen has been very smart with his squad moves. He’s not splashed the cash unnecessarily and he’s bought players that have experience at this level. Will they regret not replacing Pukki? Maybe; the ex-Sevilla CF hitman was capable of producing something from nothing which big Sadik and eager Pelvas just can’t do. They’re a lot more “standard” forwards, good though they unquestionably are. Muurinen’s side should now revert to a more usual 4-4-2 with Sadik being the target man and Pelvas making the runs off him. Again, that’s more than enough to dominate the Finnish league although depth up front may harm them. For me, this side is good enough to win every domestic competition this season though.
FC Lahti make a swift return to the Veikkausliiga following their relegation two seasons ago and it’s pleasing to see. They’re a big club and should be playing Veikkausliiga football, although I have to confess that it’s a shame to not see Jari Litmanen line up against his former club today.
Are FC Lahti good enough to be in this division? Not really, in my view. Then again, a lot of Veikkausliiga clubs have lessened in quality this season so perhaps they’ll survive; who knows? They do play some good football and they have secured the signing of one of Finland’s most promising defenders in Joel Mero – he won’t be there long! They’ve been quite smart in the market though, signing FC Honka Espoo midfielder Lepola, JJK Jyvaskyla striker Kari, and MyPa Anjalankoski midfielder Hietanen. Don’t get me wrong here – I don’t think that any of the above are particularly good players – but they all add depth and experience that FC Lahti frankly need at this level.
FC Lahti’s weakness at this level really should be goalscoring. They looked utterly hopeless in the Ykkonen last season whenever Rafael and/or Kemppinen were absent. Shala, Backman, and Lansitalo are all “maybe” attackers for me. Additionally, take Turunen out of the midfield and Lahti struggle to make things happen. This type of approach is not uncommon in Finnish football but you need more than a couple of options against the best club in your country and FC Lahti just don’t have it, although interestingly Brazilian hitman Rafael does face his old club today and may fancy scoring a token goal or two against a talented but unfamiliar HJK defence.
One thing to always expect in the Liiga Cup is goals. Bear in mind that most of these games (if not all) are played indoors because Finland is effectively a large block of ice right now. Indoor games favour the home sides more than most other home advantages, especially in Finland, and it also tends to increase the number of goals per game.
Can FC Lahti score here? Yes, absolutely. Will they get away without conceding at least three goals? They’ll have to play very well and be very lucky to do that. FC Lahti were trashed by HJK Helsinki in the Suomen Cup last season and a repeat of the 3-0 scoreline in that game would not surprise me. For me, the odds of 4/5 on HJK beating the -1.5 handicap here is too generous, really – it looks like the bookies are reading too much into HJK’s departures and not enough into Muurinen’s brilliance with transitional squads.
Verdict: HJK Helsinki to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory – Velaphi is absent. Magilton’s first game in charge.
Adelaide United – Cassio, McKain, Susak, and Levchenko are absent. Dilevski is a doubt.
Finnish Liiga Cup:
HJK Helsinki – Litmanen is absent.
FC Lahti – No absentees.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira – Tony, Nuno Santos, Sassa, and Michel Lugo are absent. Ricardo debutises. Melgarejo and Filipe Anunciacao return.
Maritimo Funchal – Benachour, Felicio, and Rossi are absent. Tcho, Roberge, and Joao Diogo return.