TFT Issue 288!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol – home win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Cypriot Division 1 game between AEK Larnaca and Apollon Limassol.
It’s very hard for me to not consider this as one of the biggest value bets of the day because AEK are considerably better than Apollon nowadays, which wasn’t the case from last year going backward. Apollon have suffered financially and lost some big players, though, whereas AEK Larnaca have flourished and galvanised their experienced and talented squad of players.
AEK Larnaca were a little rusty in their 1-1 draw at Olympiakos Nicosia lately. I expected them to win it, I admit, but they squandered too many good chances and ultimately failed to obtain three points in a game that they really should have obtained them in. However, Vlemmings’ start as boss of the club has been promising with AEK having played some good football and generally they’ve been able to punish sides too. Their home record this season isn’t flattering on paper but I would attribute that to their slow start to the season. On paper, this is at the very least one of the top four strongest sides in Cyprus and unlike most of the others right now, they’re actually playing like it, too. Their 0-1 win at Halkanoras in the Cypriot Cup lately wasn’t magnificent but it was an efficient win with minimum effort and that symbolises what AEK Larnaca can do, really – win games without much effort. On their own turf with only midfielder Pavlou and centre-back Murillo absent, you have to fancy AEK to do well here, particularly as they welcome back a couple of players since their draw in Nicosia.
Apollon Limassol have suffered with their financial problems this season, as have a number of Cypriot clubs. Note that this side has stopped scoring against good sides and they’ve stopped having the determination to come from behind and to pick themselves up after a defeat. They had a horrible run before Christmas where they played three derbies in a row, losing all of them without scoring as they whimpered into Christmas itself. Only a win at a very poor Ermis side spared their complete embarassment and an unconvincing victory against Anagennisi Deryneia since returning from the break have moved to console their fans, who are obviously not happy with the club’s displays for obvious reasons. Last season, it was all about Jose Semedo as he led from the front, both scoring and creating chances. His departure has really damaged Apollon Limassol this season with even Bangura having not being as effective, although admittedly he has been out for a large portion of the season with an injury. There are still some good players in the Apollon ranks but enough to command the odds that they have today? Not for my money – they’ve not played well enough against anyone this season for me to take them seriously against a good side like AEK Larnaca. Additionally, the stretched Apollon squad must cope with the absence of French defender Neva and his fellow countryman Noro in midfield. Both are regulars in what I wouldn’t hasten to call a distinctly average and unimpressive Apollon side so again, I can’t take them seriously here.
I cannot envision the scenario whereby AEK Larnaca lose this game. It’s famous last words, I know, but they’re the better side, they’re far more consistent, and they’ve got more match-winners than their opponents. For me, the odds on the home win outright are a pure bargain but I’m going to cover myself with draw no bet due to a bit of an absence of luck lately and partially because Apollon can be stubborn sometimes if they feel like it.
Verdict: AEK Larnaca to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Additional games
Newcastle United vs Queens Park Rangers – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Newcastle have finally waved farewell to the heartbeat of their team with leading goalscorer Demba Ba having joined up with the Senegal side and Cheik Tiote having joined up with the Ivory Coast side for the African Nations. Without Ba, Newcastle scoring goals is going to be a rarity at best, in my view. Without Tiote, Newcastle retaining the ball is going to happen less too, which limits their average strikers to even less opportunities. Newcastle’s thin squad really should feel those absences for the next month, starting today, as they just don’t have replacements for either player.
Newcastle have also had Sammy Ameobi ruled out with injury, which doesn’t help. I don’t rate him but Pardew needs all the striking options that he can muster whilst Ba is away. That means that Shola Ameobi and Leon Best could and should lead the line, neither of which I would call Premier League quality so they’re really giving QPR the opportunity to get a surprise result in the north-east today, in my view.
QPR have recently sacked Neil Warnock, which is just insane. He’s done a great job there and sacking him just demonstrates the stupidity of the owner, in my opinion. However, he has brought in an excellent boss in Mark Hughes so it’ll be interesting to see if the Welshman can help QPR avoid the drop. Hughes’ first mission with the squad would be to get their defence sorted out, as indeed he is with a move for Alex imminent and a move for Samba definitely not out of the question. Hughes is big on his players working hard and staying in position, which is important for a side like QPR as they lack the quality to play a more fluid formation.
Hughes has his work cut out today, admittedly, with bully Barton out, temperamental playmaker Taarabt out, and pacey full-back Traore out. However, I have a lot of faith in him as a manager and I feel he’ll have done enough with QPR’s squad this week as to make them work hard for one another at Newcastle today and let’s face it – they’re not a set of world-beaters so why not?
I just find the odds on Newcastle far too short here for a side that frankly isn’t that good. Maybe Newcastle will win it – they can be inspired at home by their vociferous fans, after all – but for me, the value is in laying the hosts at evens with the above in mind.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Barcelona vs Real Betis Balompie – home win with -3 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Preview required? I don’t think so but you can have one anyway!
Barcelona have been imperious at home this season, sweeping aside every side that they’ve faced and usually with a flurry of goals to boot, too. That said, Sevilla CF were beyond fortunate in their trip to the Nou Camp and claimed a 0-0 draw despite being annihlated in the game. Barcelona are yet to concede at home this season and average scoring over four goals per home game, which is beyond impressive, even by their lofty standards. They’ve got some of the very best players in the world and although they’ve rarely shown that on the road this season, they always manage it in front of their own fans and that’s precisely what I expect from them today. Betis have a couple of decent players but they don’t have the temperament nor positional sense nor defensive capabilities to prevent Barcelona from ripping them apart here, if they so desire. There are very few sides that I’d take with such a heavy handicap but Barcelona are one of them, particularly against a side that has little concept of how to defend and thus my call is Barcelona to beat the -3 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Verdict: Barcelona to beat the -3 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Sporting Gijon vs Malaga – home win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Although somewhat lacking in quality in the final third after Castro moved on, Sporting Gijon have done reasonably well this season, in my view. Sacking Preciado would be a huge mistake as nobody else can manage this club, in my view. He can motivate this players and they actually play really good football when the confidence is in their veins. Their problem is goalscoring and it is hurting them, of course. Hell, it could even relegate them if they’re not careful. That’s why their home games are doubly important right now and frankly this is a game that Sporting Gijon must not lose.
Can they beat mega-rich Malaga though? Yes, absolutely. Contrary to what statistics this season suggest, Gijon is not an easy away game. Few sides can come to Gijon and walk away from it feeling that they’ve had an easy ride. Sporting Gijon lie down for nobody and if they let them get into their rhythm then they’ll punish you.
Malaga may have better individuals than Sporting Gijon but they’re certainly not a better team yet. I’ve no doubt whatsoever that they will be in due course but this side doesn’t have enough cohesion whatsoever. They have no composure away from home, bottling it in the final third and conceding stupid goals. They don’t score enough on the road due to bottling it and they ultimately don’t destroy sides – yet. Again, I am sure that will change in due course but right now Malaga are not a side that concern me.
Away from home this season, the only two wins that Malaga have recorded have been against Racing Santander (the worst side in the Primera Liga this season for my money) and Real Mallorca (who were in a bad way at the time). They’ve fucked up against everyone away from home, including a 3-0 humbling at over-achieving Levante, a 2-0 loss at newly-promoted Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, a 3-2 loss in San Sebastian against Real Sociedad despite carrying a lead into the latter stages of the game, and a 0-0 draw with a very leaky Real Zaragoza defence. Conclusion? Malaga aren’t ready to win games like this yet despite having the players to do so.
For me, this game should be a 1x. Gijon are a good home side when they want to be and Malaga have done very little to impress me this season so my call is for Sporting to win this one with draw no bet cover as a loss would be catastrophic for them today.
Verdict: Sporting Gijon to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Besiktas JK vs Bursaspor – home win at 10/11.
I think it was a shock to everyone when Besiktas failed to capitalise on Ankaragucu’s financial ruin by drawing 0-0 in Ankara with the rock-bottom club but Besiktas bounced back with a 2-1 victory over Genclerbirligi earlier this week so morale should be back to normal. On their day, Besiktas are the best side in Turkey, in my view. They’ve got offensive players that should be playing at a higher level than this, if we’re honest. Simao, Ricardo Quaresma, Manual Fernandes – even Hugo Almeida – are all capable of playing at a higher level. Whereas that might speak volumes for their lust for money, they remain talented players and it really shows when Besiktas want it to, especially at home. Barring a surprising 0-2 loss against Kayserispor earlier this season in the Super Lig, the only sides to prevent Besiktas winning at home this season have been the usual derbies – Galatasaray, Fenerbahce, and Istanbul BB respectively – so effectively, you have to play well to get a result here.
Can Bursaspor really up their game to do that? Well, they have some good players and a great sense of unity in their team but as far as quality goes, they falter every time when compared against a side like Besiktas. Bursaspor never really replaced Sercan Yildrim and they miss what he gave to their attack. Losing Kenny Miller was a big mistake too, in my view – it renders Bursaspor’s attack as being somewhat predictable. Signing Bangura from AIK Solna could prove to be an inspired move as he’s looked good sporadically this season. Batalla has also contributed heavily so Bursaspor are not without good players, as I mentioned earlier. However, they are rather predictable and as efficient as they can be, I just don’t think that they’re good enough to do well in Istanbul nowadays.
For me, there’s value on Besiktas winning this one at 10/11.
Verdict: Besiktas JK to win at 10/11.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart – Taseski, Kalmar, Fred, Colosimo, Ibrahim, and Zahra are absent. Srhoj and Germano are doubts.
Perth Glory – Sikora, Coyne, Neville, Young, and Pantelidis are absent.
Gold Coast United – Porter, Moss, and Broadfoot are absent.
Wellington Phoenix – Pantelis is absent.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht – Vargas, Molins are absent. Mazuch, Samuel, Reynaldo, and Badibanga left.
Club Brugge – Dhoest, Vydra, van Gijseghem, and Blondel are absent. Hogli and Rafaelov are doubts. Donk, Zimling, and Odjidja-Ofoe return.
Zulte-Waregem – Maazou, Matton, Skulason, Hadzic are absent. Berrier may make his “debut”. First game for new coach.
Racing Genk – Joneleit, Camus, Limbombe, Barda, Hyland are absent. Pudil has left. Hubert is a doubt.
Cypriot Division 1:
Aris Limassol – Randosavlevic is absent.
Alki Larnaca – No absentees.
AEK Larnaca – Pavlou, Mourigio, and Ceran Polo are absent.
Apollon Limassol – Noro and Neva are absent.
Ermis – Papathanasiou, Fassot, and Charalambous are absent.
Nea Salamis – Saavedra, Graims, and Leon are absent.
Greek Super League:
Atromitos – No absentees.
Aris Salonika – Castillo, Neto, Faty, and Prittas are absent.
Kerkyra – Michos, Haber, and Kontodimos are absent.
Asteras Tripolis – Usero, Arsenijevic, and Ximo Navarro are absent. Bartolini and Alvarez return.
Panionios – Kouloxeris may debutise. Kolovos, Anastaopoulos, and Milovanovic are absent.
Panaitolikos – Boumale, Kousas, Theodoridis, and Koutroumanos are absent. Fernandes returns.
PAOK Salonika – Ivic, Papazoglou, and Georgiadis are absent.
Ergotelis – Romano, Dadomo, Kandilakis, Dermitzakis, and Junior are absent.
PAS Giannina – Skoufalis, Andralas, and Fergouche are absent.
Panathinaikos – Sarriegi, Boumsong, Kante, Kotsolis, Rudolf, Christodopoulos, and Seitardis are absent. Nins is also out and is supposedly on his way to Parma.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Brighi and Capelli are absent. Manfredini and Bellini are doubts.
Cagliari – Nene and Eriksson are absent. Perico, Rui Sampaio, and Conti are doubts.
Cesena – Djokovic, Lauro, Malonga, and Martinho are absent.
Fiorentina – Babacar, Kharja, and Kroldrup are absent.
Genoa – Dainelli, Bovo, Kaladze, and Moretti are absent. Birsa, Palacio, Veloso, Rossi, Antonelli are doubts.
Internazionale – Muntari and Jonathan are absent. Maicon and Sneijder are doubts.
Juventus – Chiellini and Quagliarella are absent.
Lazio – Bizzarri, Brocchi, and Konko are absent. Cana, Cisse, Del Nero, Hernanes, Kozak, Makinwa, Sculli, and Scaloni are doubts.
Lecce – Giandonato, Julio Sergio, Mesbah, Oddo, and Strasser are absent. Obodo, Falcone, and Di Michele are doubts.
AC Milan – Cassano, Yepes, Gattuso, Flamini, and Aquilani are absent. Abbiati, Abate, and Roma are doubts.
Novara – Lisuzzo is absent. Pinardi, Pesce, Ludi, and Centurioni are doubts.
Palermo – Acquah, Hernandez, Pisano, Viviano, and Zahavi are absent.
Parma – Pelle and Galloppa are absent. Marques and Mirante are doubts.
Siena – Bolzoni, Brkic, Vergassola, and Giorgi are absent.
Udinese – Asamoah, Badu, Barreto, Benatia, and Coda are absent. Domizzi is a doubt.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Academica de Coimbra – Abdoulaye, Real, and Diogo Gomes are absent.
Vitoria Guimaraes – N’Diaye and Bruno Teles are absent. Pedro Mendes returns.
Olhanense – Edinho and Jander return. Vasco Fernandes debutises.
Beira-Mar – Balboa, Cristiano, and Andre Marques are absent.
CD Nacional de Madeira – Mateus and Marcio Madeira are absent.
Uniao de Leiria – Obradovic and Hugo Gomes return.
Sporting Braga – Hugo Viana and Quim return. Luis Alberto debutises.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Van Wolfswinkel and Renato Neto are absent. Carrico returns.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid – Perea, Dominguez, Silvio, and Costa are absent.
Villarreal CF – Rossi, Catala, Musacchio, Mubarak, Ruben, Marchena, and Camunas are absent.
Osasuna – Punal, Sola, Garcia, Roversio, Ruben, Shojaei, and Echaide are absent.
Racing Santander – Torrejon, Arana, and Francis are absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Amorebieta, Martinez, Ocio, Gurpegi, and Castillo are absent.
Levante – Kone and Juanlu are absent.
Sporting Gijon – Carmelo, Botia, Lora, Sangoy, and Leon are absent.
Malaga – Ruben, Joaquin, and Baptista are absent.
Barcelona – Keita, Fontas, Villa, Pedro, and Afellay are absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Santa Cruz, Benat, Juanma, Amaya, Pozuelo, and Vadillo are absent.