TFT Issue 293!
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Featured game
Real Madrid vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – over 5.5 cards at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is between Primera Liga leaders Real Madrid and feisty Athletic Club de Bilbao. Cards are not a general choice that I’d take for games as they can be hard to call but I really like this one today and I’ll explain why.
Real Madrid’s superb run has been brought to a grinding halt by Barcelona, yet again. It was a deserved win for the Catalans, really, who seem to have a knack of completely outplaying and deflating Real Madrid when the opportune moment arises. However, Real Madrid are still top of the table and have bags of ability so I expect a bit of a backlash here.
The trouble is that there is only side in the Primera Liga that hates Real Madrid more than Barcelona and that’s Athletic Bilbao. I’m even including Atletico Madrid in that list because Athletic Bilbao’s rivalry runs very deep. Bilbao would absolutely love to derail Madrid and take advantage of their demoralised state and perhaps they will – who knows? Bielsa’s boys are playing some lovely football right now and with lanky Llorente leading the line again, I’d not rule out anything from an ever-improving Bilbao side.
However, it would be foolish and biased of me to say anything but that Madrid are the better side and that they should win this game. That isn’t a secret to anyone. Value, though – I just don’t see any in the handicap or 1×2 market because nothing would surprise me here. Bilbao don’t have the depth that Madrid do but they play some sublime football and can match Madrid on that front. I’d argue that Madrid have more firepower but a demoralising defeat against Barcelona may hurt them more than it’s been anticipated. Therefore, I’d avoid most markets for this game.
What does interest me a lot is the cards market, though. Both sides are just inept defensively, more often than not, whilst being strong in attack. Bilbao’s central defence is generally Amorebieta and Javi Martinez nowadays, who are both rather slow and clumsy, particularly Martinez as he’s actually a midfielder. Madrid’s strikers should have a lot of joy there, especially as Amorebieta is an absolute nutcase and tends to get sent off in games like these as he’s a staunch Bilbao player/fan/lunatic. Bilbao struggle in the left-back area and have done ever since Del Horno left so no prizes as to guessing where Ronaldo will drift in this game, cue the De Marcos/Koikili yellow card. Iturraspe’s job is to get the ball back and he’ll have a tough job although he’s played well this season – either way, there’s another yellow card in the making there. Muniain’s runs at Sergio Ramos – if that doesn’t result in a yellow or a red card for the samba right-back then I’ll be astounded. Similarly, Marcelo handling Susaeta will be an interesting one, as will unpopular lunatic Pepe trying to handle big Llorente. For me, this game has cards all over it and previous games between the two will generally back that up.
One other bet I will mention is to take Madrid to score a goal or two more if the correct circumstances occur. I would take this bet after Madrid score their first second-half goal because that’s when Bilbao tend to lose it and get players sent off whilst attacking to try and score, which tends to mean that Madrid score more goals. That should be an interesting one.
Anyway, my main bet remains taking over 5.5 cards here as this game should just ooze fouls/bookings from two temperamental/hot-headed sides.
Verdict: Over 5.5 cards at 5/6.
Additional games
Ivory Coast vs Sudan – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Brave? Unquestionably. Stupid? I don’t think so, although the result will tell us.
For me, we’re looking at the winners of the African Nations when we see Ivory Coast line up today. They’ve got the best squad, the best players, a huge amount of experience, and match-winners all over the park. Their only weak area is in net and that’s a weakness that most African countries have, to be honest. The Ivorians may be a shade hot-headed but they’re very good at attacking and scoring goals and to me, they will win this tournament.
However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. This is the first game of the competition for both sides so I expect a fairly cautious approach from both teams. Neither side wants to lose their opening game or it’s all uphill from there. Sudan are not a particularly good side and with all their players plying their trade within their own country, I can see why most people would heavily oppose them today. However, what I’ve seen of Sudan tells me that this side is not easy to beat. They’re not dangerous in front of goal and they’re very well-organised. A draw here would be immense for them and their fans and although I strongly fancy the Ivorians to eventually break through, a cheeky punt on the draw has crossed my mind.
The African Nations is surprisingly not notorious for high-scoring games and I think that the unders are priced generously here with that in mind. Unless Sudan bottle it or concede a stupidly early goal then the under 2.5 goals looks very intriguing here indeed. Ivory Coast have the firepower to eventually break through and win the game but I’ll be very surprised if this is a rout. For me, Sudan are good enough to frustrate the Ivorians and thus under 2.5 goals appeals to me here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Trinidad & Tobago vs Finland – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
I don’t know if the Scandinavian nations are trying to confuse and beguile the betting world but it’s certainly working! Denmark, Sweden, and Norway are all out playing some bizarre tournament in Thailand whereas Finland have decided to opt for the Caribbean. A nice holiday for these teams, really, considering that they will probably never play any of the competitively. I wonder if this is a statement by Finland for not being invited to Thailand? Anyway, enough of this nonsense!
I like over 2.5 goals a lot here, especially with the odds as long as they are. Trinidad & Tobago are a passionate side when playing at home with plenty of pace, strength, and attacking flair. Their old hands in Stern John, Kenwyne Jones, Carlos Edwards etc. are not here, naturally, but a lot of local boys are and that makes it all the more important for them to do well, in my view. Experience is low but determination is high and Trinidad & Tobago play a style of football that Finnish players generally hate to play against so I expect the hosts to have some joy in this one.
Finland have brought a reasonably strong squad with them though, which is confusing and intriguing at the same time. Don’t get me wrong – only Sjolund and Hamalainen will be seen as the experienced players here with the Eremenko brothers, Pasanen, Forssell etc. all absent. However, there are a good bunch of players in this team that started off in good Finland U21 side a few years ago and Finland are starting to improve as a result. I’m a big fan of Aaritalo up front and I hope Paatelainan plays him here. They’ve got talented young Riku Riski in the squad, not to mention HJK winger Sorsa and attacking midfielder Mannstrom. Defensively, Finland look a shade lightweight and a lot on the slow side so I do think that Trinidad & Tobago will exploit that today. However, Finland have plenty of attacking options and I think that they can punish an inexperienced Trinidad & Tobago side.
The 1×2 market is a big “no go” here for me. However, over 2.5 goals appeals to me an awful lot with the contrasting styles and player abilities here, especially given as this game will be played in hot temperatures that Finland’s players are just not used to.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Doxa Dramas vs Aris Salonika – home win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
I don’t get these odds. I really don’t.
Since Doxa Dramas appointed their new boss, they’ve looked far, far better than they did earlier this season. They’re still lacking in quality, don’t get me wrong, but they work hard because they’ve got a good man-motivator in charge of them now. Statistics show that they’ve lost three out of their last five games, drawing the other two. Statistics can be misleading, though. For example, you have to consider that they’ve made three of the hardest away games in Greece over their past three Super League away trips and have duly lost all three, although they were horribly unlucky to lose in Athens against Panathinaikos in their last away game as the hosts needed a late goal to win an uninspired game. At home, though, Olympiakos Piraeus were frustrated and matched here by Doxa Dramas as they worked hard. Olympiakos are the best side in Greece by a long way and their inability to win here demonstrates how much Doxa Dramas have improved. Again, they’re still short on quality and will probably not avoid the drop but I expect to see them pick up far more points in the near future than they did at the start of the season.
I like Aris a lot. I like all the Salonika clubs though, to be fair. However, they all share the same traits – great at home; shit away. Without their fanatical fans, Aris simply don’t play well, hence what is easily a top six Super League club having won just once in nine away games this season. Aris average scoring less than a goal per every two away games and although they don’t concede many, it’s as if they approach each away game with the aim of not losing so goalscoring just doesn’t interest them. They’re trying to get Castillo out of their team too, which doesn’t help. He may not have done too well here but he’s still their best attacker in my view and that makes things difficult for Aris.
Since being promoted to the Super League for the 06/07 season, Aris have never won more than six away games in a season. That backs up my points above. We’re not solely going off statistics from this season – Aris really are consistently terrible/uninterested when playing away from home and thus a determined home side that needs the points badly may well get an unexpected result here. At worst I would see Aris winning this one by a single goal and you getting your money back but I find tremendous value in giving Doxa Dramas a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5 because Aris are not a goalscoring side on the road.
Verdict: Doxa Dramas to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Panathinaikos vs Atromitos – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Boumsong is out (although Sarriegi returns) has been out, which removes their best central defender. Ninis has appeared just once this season and is set to leave the club if we’re to believe the rumours. Leto is the only consistent attacking threat in the team but even he has been out-of-sorts lately, as have his fellow attackers Owusu-Abeyie and Zeca. Panathinaikos are genuinely nothing on the side that they once were and unconvincing display after unconvincing display only re-affirms that point. Atromitos, however, are a side on the rise and I think they’re more than capable of causing an upset here. They play a good passing game, are composed, in control, and are very well-organised. They were superb when they faced Olympiakos away and have looked quite strong lately. Their defence can be caught out on the road but they’re good enough to keep the ball here and all Greek sides are motivated against Panathinaikos so why not a surprise today? There should have been one in Panathinaikos’ last game and I think that Atromitos are the side to finally expose Pana’s weakness. For me, there’s value in the away win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 11/10 as the worst-case scenario should be a narrow home win.
Verdict: Atromitos to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
AZ Alkmaar vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam – home win at 7/5.
We can expect goals here but for me, the value is on the AZ win. They won at Ajax a few days ago in the KNVB Beker and should have won at Ajax earlier in the season, wasting a glorious chance at the end of the game. They’re a much better unit than Ajax, in my view, as they can defend as well as attack. Although Wernbloom’s imminent departure will have hurt AZ, there’s still plenty going in AZ’s favour and they have plenty of firepower as they always demonstrate at home. For me, AZ are worth a bet to win at home against any Eredivisie side and Ajax are no exception. Ajax are a good side when it comes to keeping the ball and creating chances but when it comes to defending and finishing, they aren’t doing what they should be. Right-back Van der Wiel misses this game, which doesn’t help their plight here one bit, both in attack and defence. With Sigthorsson misses the game against his former club, which limits Ajax’s striker situation, as does the continued absence of Boerrigter. Ajax are always capable of a surprise but for me, AZ are well worth a bet at 7/5 against a side that they’ve proven that they’re better than on more than one occasion this season.
Verdict: AZ Alkmaar to win at 7/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC – Mallia is a doubt. Bosschaart returns.
Gold Coast United – Moss, Broadfoot, Beekmans, Porter, and MacAllister are absent.
Perth Glory – Sikora, Coyne, Neville, Young, and Pantelidis are absent. Van den Brink and Dodd are doubts.
Melbourne Victory – Velaphi and Fabinho are absent. Celeski and Pondeljak are doubts.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Westerlo – Vanaudenaerde, Macao, Cabeke, Wils, Dekelver, Vanhout, Roef, Owusu, Deelken, Cardoso, Arbeitman are absent. Juande and Matonde are doubts.
Standard de Liege – Van Damme, Buzaglo, Opare are absent. Cyriac returns. Tchite starts from the bench. Belhocine returns.
Cypriot Division 1:
Nea Salamis – Gtaims and Leon are absent.
Anagennisi Deryneia – Jolic, Tofas, and Gonzales are absent.
Apollon Limassol – Neva, Fani, Nunez, and Theodorou are absent.
Olympiakos Nicosia – Koita, Paoulinio, and Amo are absent. Nicolaou and De Pinia return.
Greek Super League:
Doxa Dramas – Geladaris and Papadopoulos may debutise.
Aris Salonika – Gianniotas is absent.
Panaitolikos – Charisteas, Koutroumanos, Theodoritis, Edjenguele, and Rocha are absent.
Kerkyra – Galinovic and Venetis are absent.
Levadiakos – No absentees.
OFI Crete – Tavlaridis and Vandinho are absent.
Xanthi – Bertos is absent.
Olympiakos Piraeus – Djebbour, Monje, Miralles, Fejsa, and Holebas are absent.
Panathinaikos – Boumsong, Kante, Ninis, and Christodoulopoulos are absent. Simao and Sarriegi return.
Atromitos – No absentees.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Rali and Ivaskevicius are absent.
Hapoel Rishon Lezion – Lokman and Avraham are absent. Cohen is a big doubt.
Italian Serie A:
Bologna – Cherubin, Cruz, Morleo, and Pulzetti are absent. Loria, Kone, Gimenez, and Diamanti are doubts.
Cagliari – Eriksson, Nene, Rui Sampaio are absent. Ariaudo is a doubt.
Catania – Capuano and Lanzafame are absent. Suazo is a doubt.
Chievo Verona – Cruzado is a doubt.
Fiorentina – Babacar, Kharja, Kroldrup, and Cerci are absent. Jovetic is a doubt.
Genoa – Antonelli, Bovo, Dainelli, Kaladze, and Rossi are absent. Veloso, Palacio, Jankovic, Gilardino, and Constant are doubts.
Internazionale – Coutinho, Forlan, Motta, Muntari, and Stankovic are absent.
Lazio – Brocchi, Cana, Makinwa, and Mauri are absent. Scaloni, Rocchi, Kozak, and Dias are doubts.
Lecce – Bertolacci, Carrozzieri, Strasser, Corvia, Falcone, Giacomazzi, and Giandonato are absent. Obodo and Ofere are doubts.
AC Milan – Aquilani, Boateng, Cassano, Flamini, Gattuso, Nesta, Pato, and Yepes are absent. Mexes, Bonera, and Abbiati are doubts.
SSC Napoli – Britos, Donadel, Fernandez, and Santana are doubts.
Novara – Lisuzzo, Dellafiore, Ludi, Paci, and Pinardi are absent. Mazzarani, Marianini, and Granoche are doubts.
Palermo – Bacinovic, Hernandez, and Pisano are absent. Zahavi and Acquah are doubts.
Parma – Crespo, Mirante, and Pelle are doubts.
Siena – Brkic, Bolzoni, Gazzi, and Rossettini are absent. Giorgi and Brienza are doubts.
Udinese – Asamoah, Badu, Barreto, Benatia, and Coda are absent. Isla is a doubt.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional de Madeira – Neto and Torodovic are absent. Moreno, Marcal, and Pecnik debutise. Aurelio returns.
Feirense – Fonseca and Henrique are absent.
Pacos de Ferreira – Sassa, Lugo, Josue, and Nuno Santos are absent. Ozeia and Melgarejo return.
Vitoria Setubal – Diego, Miguelito, Ricardo Silva, Neca, and Jose Pedro return. Gallo, Severino, and Fidalgo are absent. Players have not been paid for around four months.
Sporting Braga – Luiz Alberto is absent. Miguel Lopes debutises.
Rio Ave – Saulo and Pinto are absent. Atsu returns.
Porto – Hulk, Alex Sandro, C.Rodgiruez, Guarin, and Djalma are absent. Danilo debutises.
Vitoria Guimaraes – Alves and Barrientos are absent. Teles and Defendi return.
SL Benfica – Aimar, Cardozo, and Rodrigo are doubts. Garay returns.
Gil Vicente – Sandro, Vitela, and Luis Carlos are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Bravo, Lass, and Pacheco are absent.
Real Mallorca – Cendros is absent.
Malaga – Ruben, Toulalan, Joaquin, and Baptista are absent.
Barcelona – Villa, Keita, Pedro, and Afellay are absent.
Osasuna – Balde, Sola, Roversio, Ruben, Shojaei, and Echaide are absent.
Valencia CF – Alcacer, Hernandez, Guaita, Miguel, Cristiano, Canales, and Maduro are absent.
Levante – Barkero, Navas, Juanfran, Suarez, Ballesteros, Lopez, Valdo, and Juanlu are absent.
Real Zaragoza – Mateos and Tomas are absent.
Real Madrid – Khedira and di Maria are absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Gabilondo, Ocio, Gurpegi, and Castillo are absent.