TFT Issue 294!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Gabon vs Niger – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the African Nations game between Gabon and Niger.
Gabon are the joint hosts of this competition with Equatorial Guinea. I gave Equatorial Guinea a good chance of beating Libya because the odds were incorrect and they duly delivered in a tight game. I’d extend Gabon the same courtesy as they’re a host and winning away from home on this continent is virtually impossible. However, odds of around 4/7 are scandalous for a side that’s frankly not that good to begin with.
Alright – Gabon are a decent side, I suppose. Daniel Cousin is a good finisher with bags of experience and Aubameyang is a useful attacking assocaite with his pace. However, that’s…it, really. They’ve got some experience in Moundounga at the back and Zita in midfield but a lot of these players are average at best from what I’ve seen. Gabon work hard and would love to win on their own turf in their opening game but are they really worth such short odds? I can’t justify that myself.
Niger themselves aren’t a great side but what they bring to this game that Gabon lack is discipline. This side generally doesn’t score goals but they defend like warriors and very few sides break through their ranks. I like big Maazou up front for them – I feel he’s been a bit unlucky in his career thus far but there’s time for that to change, I guess. Abdoulaye can be good if given space but ultimately Niger rely on their solidarity as a unit rather than individuals and it works very well for them. Again, Niger will rarely score goals but they’ll rarely concede them too, with the proviso that they don’t bottle it, of course!
Niger play in this game without pressure as nothing is expected of them. Gabon are expected to win by their loyal crowd and given that Equatorial Guinea won their opening game, I think there’s additional pressure on Gabon to do well here, which possibly explains the odds. On paper, though, there’s no way on earth that Gabon are worth such short odds. I think there’s a very good chance that Niger will nullify them and at the worst they should lose by a goal (if at all) so my call is Niger to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at very generous odds of 4/5.
Verdict: Niger to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Additional game
Morocco vs Tunisia – Morocco to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Approach this one with caution as it is a derby and thus we can potentially expect some cards. However, I have to favour Morocco to win this one as they simply have a better side than Tunisia nowadays.
Games between the North African sides are tight and are generally nightmares for the over/under market so don’t go there. Taking the obvious under 2.5 goals selection at horrendously short odds is just asking for trouble. Most games in the groups will go under 2.5 goals but these games between the tactical nations in this competition can easily flair up over 2.5 goals with the right circumstances.
However, I have to admit that I think we’ll see a low-scoring game here. These two sides are all about midfield with little finesse in front of goal. I think Morocco will win the midfield battle, though. I simply rate Morocco’s midfield as being considerably better than Tunisia’s midfield. We’ve got Carcela, Kharja, Boussoufa, Assaidi, El Ahmadi, and even temperamental Taarabt supporting the average Chamakh so even he should find the net in this game. I really like Morocco’s midfield, though – there’s lots of creativity there and if they apply themselves correctly then they’ll win.
Tunisia’s dependance on Jemaa is growing and it’s not a good time for them as a result, largely because Jemaa simply isn’t that good despite being their leading goalscorer of all time, which speaks volumes for their problems with strikers. I recall Tunisia nationalising ex-Sochaux striker Santos for one of the previous Africans Nations tournaments to give them firepower and it worked a treat, too. They don’t have that luxury here though, unfortunately. There’s plenty of work ethic in Tunisia’s attack but there’s little else, hence my concern for them. Their midfield is capable of doing well with Chedli and Chikhaoui in it but there’s just not enough there to convince me that they can stop Morocco today, especially with Tunisia’s defence still missing the retired Jaidi at the back with no real replacement having emerged.
Therefore, I think Morocco will shade this one. I’d not touch it without draw no bet but whilst it’s at 4/5, I’m all over Morocco to win with draw no bet cover.
Verdict: Morocco to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Team news
Cypriot Division 1:
Ethnikos Achnas – Simov and Kissi are absent.
AEK Larnaca – Pavlou is absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Haifa – Dvalshvili has left. Amasha, Cohen, and Osman are absent. Golasa returns. Cocalic may debutise.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Dabut, Atar, Lugasi, Pavicevic, and Yizhaki are doubts.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Olhanense – Mateus, Micael, Luis Filipe, Vitor Vinha, and Nuno Piloto are absent. Fernando Alexandre returns.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Diego Rubio, van Wolfswinkel, Bojinov, Elias, and Pereirinha are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Villarreal CF – Camunas, Mubarak, Catala, and Rossi are absent.
Sporting Gijon – Sangoy is absent.