TFT Issue 298!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Gabon vs Morocco – over 2 goals at 4/5.
The African Nations wasn’t kind to me yesterday with the Ivorians leaving it at a two-goal win and Manucho inspiring Angola into a decent attacking display, thus sending the game over 2.5 goals.
However, this game appeals to me as far as overs go today. Gabon attacked a lot against Niger in the opening game and they deserved their win. They’re a little handicapped as they only attack down the right-hand side with any conviction but there’s plenty of pace in their ranks and with the home advantage supporting them, I can’t write them off getting a surprise result here. They’re not a good side and they’re not better than Morocco but again, home advantage is huge out in Africa so I won’t rule anything out from a 1×2 perspective.
Quite how Morocco didn’t beat Tunisia is still baffling me now. They dominated the game from start to finish but an inspired display from the Tunisian goalkeeper and some horribly wayward finishing cost Morocco big time. Morocco subsequently have to turn it on against the hosts and that’s never easy in this tournament. Morocco keep the ball well and pass it around beautifully at times but they must start taking their chances or they face an early exist. I fancy their midfield to be too strong for Gabon and I expect them to score as a result but then again, their defence looked weak from counter-attacks and set pieces in the last game so who says Gabon can’t score here? Not me. I expected more from Morocco’s defence, to be honest, but they look a shade frail at the moment and an attacking display in this game won’t improve that confidence.
So, yeah – over 2 goals looks nice to me here. Morocco have to attack their hosts but are vulnerable on counter-attacks whilst being good at making things happen in midfield. I think there’s enough in this one for us to see goals, bluntly put.
Verdict: Over 2 goals at 4/5.
Additional game
Anorthosis Famagusta vs Alki Larnaca – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
I like this one more than I should, given how Anorthosis’ new manager has set them up to keep clean sheets more than to attack and score goals. However, I still like this one a lot and I’ll explain why.
Anorthosis still have good strikers and will score goals with the right service. They’re not a giant at the moment, in my view – they’re too far behind APOEL and Omonia and possibly even AEK Larnaca. However, some players in their ranks are very good and that has granted Anorthosis some good wins at home this season although they have shipped some daft goals.
Quality-wise, they are quite a distance better than Alki Larnaca but this is a derby so that doesn’t always matter. It’s not a huge derby in the sense that Anorthosis are huge and Alki barely have any fans but it should have a derby atmosphere nonetheless. Additionally, Alki have played pretty damn well this season, especially at home. They didn’t deserve to lose at home against AEL Limassol in their last game and have generally attacked in an inspired manner when playing at home this season, which fills me with confidence for them in this game.
Alki have been poor away from home this season, unfortunately. Then again, that’s not a problem here as they’re not away from home – the game is Famagusta, which is where they ground-share with Anorthosis. Alki have started treating this pitch as if it were their own and I admire their displays here far more than Anorthosis’ displays this season. Maybe we’re in for a surprise here; who knows? I wouldn’t enter the 1×2 market with Anorthosis so short and their new manager yet to taste a harsh result, which is inevitable at some point.
However, I’m all over the over 2.5 goals market at generous odds. Alki force the issue on this ground whilst defending like idiots whilst Anorthosis have the players to punish them. I’m hoping Anorthosis revert back to their old ways for this game and that they concede a sloppy goal but either way, with the above in mind, I still think that the odds on the overs market are too long to ignore here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
A couple of notes…
So, yeah. I’m not betting on Niger vs Tunisia because those odds on Tunisia are criminally short for a side that generally struggles to score goals. They scored two against Morocco because of lax defending from a set piece and a counter-attack; they did nothing else in the game in the final third. Niger are not going to attack Tunisia freely here like Morocco did; they’d be stupid to. I can understand why the odds on Tunisia are short, though – Niger bottled it in their opening game and by the time they recovered it was too late for them to salvage anything from the game. After the game, their star striker Maazou said that he was working with players that simply weren’t good enough (or words to that effect) so confidence in the camp must be low as that was badly-timed and thinly-veiled at best. Smells like a cheeky under here but I’m conscious of the fact that Tunisia are way too short for me to be remotely interested here. No bet.
I like overs in the Turku derby, in other news. Bookies aren’t giving odds on it currently but maybe it’s worthwhile in-play. Arena games are often overs in Finland and this derby shouldn’t be an exception. Lots of changes have occurred since last season, though, and some players are missing on international duty. However, Siribadze will be keen to make an impression on his debut and TPS love to upset their neighbours, even without star striker Aaritalo. As ever, this game is a big “no bet” on the 1×2 front but overs should be straightforward enough as it’s indoors.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United – Broadfood, Moss, Beekmans, MacAllister, Porter are absent. Rozic is a doubt.
Central Coast Mariners – Hutchinson is absent. Amini returns.
Cypriot Division 1:
Anorthosis Famagusta – Marquinhos, Laborde, Angelov, Marangos, and Andic are absent. Rezek is a doubt.
Alki Larnaca – Fernandez, Vansconselos, and Bruno are absent.
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Inter Turku – Aho, Kauko, and Parviainen are absent. Antunez may debutise as trialist.
TPS Turku – Aaritalo and Kolehmainen are absent. Makinen is a doubt.
Dutch Eredivisie:
PSV Eindhoven – Tamata, Pieters, and Engelaar are absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Bony, Vink, Kashia, Chanturia, Propper, Annan are absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Guimaraes – Santana, Mendes, and Targino are absent. Barrientos and Urreta return. Amorim debutises.
CD Nacional de Madeira – Madeira and Mihelic are absent. Neto returns. Keita debutises.