TFT Issue 300!
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Featured game
Genoa vs SSC Napoli – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the match between Genoa and Napoli in northern Italy. Genova is one of the harder places to play an away game and most (if not all) clubs in Serie A can vouch for that.
However, Genoa have really had issues putting the ball in the net this season. They average scoring just over a goal per home game and boast a similar record for their away games. Defensively, they’ve been pretty strong, to be honest – that tends to underpin their strong home displays rather well.
Genoa have taken steps to improve their attack by clinching the signing of Alberto Gilardino from Fiorentina, who is a proven Serie A hitman and will be most welcome at the club to take the burden off pacey Palacio up front. Ze Eduardo has finally returned from long-term injury and thus things are finally looking up for Genoa in attack. However, just as they sort their attack out, their defence falls to pieces! They’ve had major injury problems at the back with Kaladze, Dainelli, and Antonelli having all been out recently, just to name a few. It’s been so bad that they’ve signed Bovo from Palermo to reinforce their crippled defence and even that hasn’t stopped them from shipping lots of goals lately. Those problems continue today and new signing Bovo, Dainelli, and Antonelli all ruled out and thus their record of conceding an average of three goals per game since returning from the winter break should really continue here.
Napoli are the better of these two sides, of course, but they rarely play well away from home and I’d certainly not put any money on them winning this one either. They may have beaten Internazionale in the Coppa Italia mid-week to give them a boost but they’re not the finished article by any stretch of the imagination, despite boasting an enviable attack spear-headed by the superb Edinson Cavani. With Lavezzi, Pandev, and now Chilean youngster Vargas all vying for starting places, Napoli have the firepower to get a good result here.
Do they have the defence, though? They’ve conceded in all but two of their Serie A away games this season and they’ve looked like conceding in all of them, to be honest. There are some good players at the back but there are some very temperamental players there too. I don’t rate Napoli’s composure in defence and thus Napoli keeping a clean sheet here would surprise me a lot.
Still, Napoli do have the firepower to capitalise on Genoa’s defensive misfortunes so I feel we’re in for an interesting game today. I’d hate to enter the 1×2 market but I think taking over 2.5 goals is a bit of a bargain at 4/5 with the above in mind.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
Libya vs Senegal – Senegal to win at 11/10.
Are we finally safe to take Senegal to win? I’d not say “safe” but I do like the price on them to win this one. Libya have done reasonably well on counter-attacks in this tournament but they bring little else to the table. Their last mach with Zambia was a write-off for me as that pitch was simply unfit for the purpose due to torrential rain. I don’t think any real conclusions can be drawn from that game as a result. Libya must win this game and hope that Zambia lose or they’re out so we have to expect them to attack here.
Libya attacking makes me more confident in the Senegal win here. Senegal struggle to break sides down but they won’t have to do that here as Libya will be attacking them. True enough, they’re already out of the tournament and thus motivation may be a problem. However, you have to feel that they’ll at least try to win one game for the fans that have travelled to support them and the amount of chances that they created in their last game gives me confidence in their ability to at least score a couple here.
There’s no doubting that Senegal are the better of these two sides. If this game was important for both sides then I’d probably not take this bet as Senegal aren’t good at breaking sides like Libya down. However, Libya must attack them and Senegal have some terrific strikers so I think the Senegalese win is worth a punt at 11/10.
Verdict: Senegal to win at 11/10.
NEC Nijmegen vs ADO Den Haag – home win at 10/11.
At the start of the season, I was a little dubious about taking NEC to beat anyone as they looked a bit predictable and uninspired. However, both prior to the winter break and after it, NEC have looked much better when it comes to passing the ball and creating chances. Indeed, if they could take their chances on a much more consistent basis then I’m confident that they’d soar up the table.
Leading them into this game is a very impressive 0-1 derby victory against bitter rivals Vitesse Arnhem, which was their first win away from home against Vitesse in their last twenty-six attempts! Morale must be high and NEC do have some good players in Vadocz and emerging striker Zeefuik at their disposal so I’m happy to give them a try here, especially with only Ibrahim and Wellenberg absent.
ADO Den Haag haven’t impressed me this season. They’re still capable of springing the odd surprise with the two Verhoeks up front but they’ve lost their cohesion and that’s not an easy thing to regain. Van der Brom’s departure affected the team’s confidence and organisation, too, which is why ADO Den Haag are struggling so much this season. At home, they’re still very much a handful as there are a lot of battlers in their ranks. On the road without their passionate fans, though – they do look vulnerable.
ADO Den Haag have already lost six out of nine on the road in the Eredivisie this season with the above in mind. They average conceding nearly three goals per away game too – only VVV Venlo and Roda JC Kerkrade have a worse record than that! Despite possessing a decent head-to-head record against NEC Nijmegen, it’s hard to see ADO Den Haag doing the business today with the above in mind and the continued absence of Leeuwin at the back.
So, yeah – the home win appeals to me at 10/11. NEC have to take their chances here but they should be in the mood for that on the back of their win at Vitesse. Therefore, I’m all over the home win unless the odds drop below 4/5, in which case I don’t feel there’d be any value in the selection.
Verdict: NEC Nijmegen to win at 10/11.
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam – home win with draw no bet at 6/5.
First of all, this is a huge game in the Netherlands so we can expect plenty of cards at De Kuip!
Secondly, there isn’t much between the two heavyweights of Dutch football so don’t go all in here.
However, I’m opting for Feyenoord to win this one with draw no bet cover. Why? Well, Feyenoord almost always impress me at home. Their youthful squad can often make mistakes on the road but when roared on by their passionate fans Feyenoord tend to produce their best stuff. Defensively, they’re not convincing at any point but that’s the way Feyenoord always are. Attacking is what they’re good at, hence them averaging scoring over two goals per home game thus far in the Eredivisie. It’s on-loan Manchester City striker Guidetti who is making all the headlines too with the Swedish hot prospect having now bagged eleven goals in twelve appearances. It’d be unfair to say that he carries Feyenoord, though – they attack well as a team and both Cabral and Fernandez more than pull their weight up front for Feyenoord. The absence of Al Ahmadi isn’t ideal in midfield but it’s not the end of the world for them either. In what is arguably the biggest game of their season, I fancy Feyenoord to show up and upset the odds here.
I think I’d have to argue the case for Ajax being marginally better than Feyenoord, if pushed. However, I’d be lying if I said that they’d convinced me in recent games because they’ve just not. True enough, you can’t write Ajax off at any stage – it’s in the nature of the club to win things and to not accept defeat. However, they look suspect in defence, inconsistent in front of goal, and unconvincing on the road, hence my concerns. Ajax still have lots of injury problems and it’s harming their route to the Eredivisie title too. Ooijer, van der Wiel, Boilesen, and Aldeweirld are absent at the back, which basically leaves Blind, Vertonghen, and Anita in defence, which is just a recipe for disaster. At the other end of the pitch, El Hamdaoui, Sigthorsson, and Boerrigther are absent which leaves them with talented-but-inconsistent Sulejmani, target man Bulykin, and the yet-to-convince Serero. It’s not a convincing squad to take to Rotterdam, in my view, and de Boer will truly earn his money if they get a result here with the above in mind.
Ajax have a terrific midfield and they’ll have to be at their best to get a result in Rotterdam today, especially the superb Eriksen. However, for me, Feyenoord have more going for them, especially in the final third, and thus odds of 6/5 on the Feyenoord win with draw no bet cover appeals to me a lot today.
Verdict: Feyenoord Rotterdam to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Racing Santander vs Valencia – away win at 6/5.
I genuinely feel that Racing Santander’s time is up in the Primera Liga. They’ve run out of quality in their ranks and Marcelino is showing no signs of wanting to return (and who can blame him?) so time is running out for the northerners. Defensively, Racing are not an easy side to break down. They’re actually very well-organised at the back, especially away from home. However, it’s not really clean sheets that are the problem for them right now – it’s the fact that the only two sides to have scored less goals than they have in the Primera Liga this season are both in the relegation zone. Pedro Munitis can’t play forever but where else are their meaningful attacks going to come from? Stuani can score goals when it suits hmi but there is nowhere near enough creativity in this side. There’s plenty of tenacity and belief but they’re very short on creativity and I do think that that will sink their ship this season.
Valencia haven’t been terrific in the Primera Liga of late and they are suffering from a few injuries at the moment. However, a 0-3 derby win at Levante in the Copa del Rey mid-week should inspire them to a good display against bogey side Racing Santander. I had the heart-stopping privelege of watching Valencia play Racing at the Mestalla earlier this season and only calamitous defending from Valencia allowed Racing into a game that Valencia dominated. Valencia eventually secured the win in nervy fashion but I expect a more assured display from them here. Strangely enough, both of these two sides play better away from home, Valencia predominantly because there’s less pressure and they’re an experienced Primera Liga side. Valencia love to counter-attack and they can do that best away from home and that’s exactly what I expect from them here.
When Racing have conceded at home this season, they’ve only managed to avoid defeat once – that’s not good! Valencia have scored in all but one of their away games this season and that doesn’t bode well for the hosts with the above statistic in mind. As long as Valencia can cope without their absentees, the away win looks very tasty at 6/5.
Verdict: Valencia to win at 6/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix – Pantelis is absent. Lia is a doubt.
Melbourne Heart – Taseski, Kalmar, Fred, Ibrahim, and Zahra are absent. Srhoj is a doubt.
Adelaide United – Susak, McKain, and Levchenko are absent. Caravella, Cassio, and Dilevski are doubts.
Perth Glory – Sikora, Coyne, Neville, Young, and Pantelidis are absent. Dodd is a doubt.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Cercle Brugge – Sergeant, Cornelis, and Gombami are absent.
Standard de Liege – van Damme, Buzaglo, Tchite, Opare, Kanu, Gonzalez, Seijas are absent. Pocognoli is a doubt.
Cypriot Division 1:
APOEL Nicosia – Almeida, Maduka, and Kiddas are absent.
Apollon Limassol – No absentees.
AEK Larnaca – Ruben Gomez and Kingsley are playing their last games for the club. Pindado and Pavlou are absent.
Nea Salamis – Dixon is absent as he’s leaving for AEL Limassol.
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 – Ivanschitz, Risse, Gopkon, Svensson, Stieber, and Allagui are absent.
SC Freiburg – Dembele, Mujdza, Schister, and Flum are absent.
VfB Stuttgart – Boka, Audel, Ba, Gentner, Traore, Boulahrouz, and Gebhardt are absent. Ibisevic may debutise.
Borussia Moenchengladbach – No absentees.
Greek Super League:
Panaitolikos – Onouatsi may debutise.
PAS Giannina – Keita, Giakos, Oikonomou, Zairi, Besera, and Tzimopoulos are absent.
Doxa Dramas – Topouzis has left.
Panathinaikos – Leto, Spryopoulos, Kante, Ninis, Boumsong, and Rudolf are absent. Christodoulopoulos returns.
AEK Athens – Markos, Gudi, Bougaidis, and Eglezou are absent.
PAOK Salonika – Etto, Stafylidis, Fotakis, and Papazoglou are absent.
Asteras Tripolis – Badis, Juanito, Arsenievits, and Frankou are absent.
Atromitos – No absentees.
Aris Salonika – No absentees.
Levadiakos – Maxairas is absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Petah Tikva – Asus returns.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Arthur has joined the club but is ineligible for this game. Fransman and Kende are absent. Abutbul is a doubt.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Bellini and Capelli are absent. Brighi is a doubt.
Bologna – Raggi, Kone, Loria, Pulzetti, and Ramirez are absent.
Cagliari – Rui Sampaio, Nene, Eriksson, and Ariaudo are absent.
Cesena – Djokovic and Ghezzal are absnet. Parolo, Malonga, Lauro, and Ceccarelli are doubts.
Chievo Verona – Pellissier, Morero, Frey, and Rigoni are doubts.
Fiorentina – Babacar, Kharja, Kroldrup, Munari, and Salifu are absent. Jovetic is a doubt.
Genoa – Bovo, Antonelli, and Dainelli are absent. Veloso, Rossi, and Constant are doubts.
Internazionale – Forlan, Muntari, Stankovic are absent. Lucio, Coutinho, and Motta are doubts.
Lazio – Alfaro, Brocchi, Cana, Kozak, Makinwa, and Mauri are absent. Radu and Ledesma are doubts.
Lecce – Carrozzieri, Corvia, Esposito, Falcone, and Giandonato are absent. Julio Sergio and Bertolacci are doubts.
AC Milan – Aquilani, Boateng, Cassano, Flamini, Gattuso, Merkel, Pato, Strasser, and Yepes are absent. Abbiati is a doubt.
Novara – Centurioni, Ludi, Pinardi, and Coser are absent.
Palermo – Bacinovic, Hernandez are absent. Zahavi is a doubt.
AS Roma – Osvaldo, Burdisso, De Rossi, and Cassetti are absent.
Siena – Brkic is absent. Pegolo and Brienza are doubts.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Uniao de Leiria – Chula is absent. Jo returns.
Pacos de Ferreira – Lugo and Luis Carlos are absent. Nuno Santos, Sassa, and Josue return.
Vitoria Setubal – Pitbull is absent. Kiko and Severino return. Board refused Bruno Ribeiro’s request to leave.
Olhanense – Agra, Luis Filipe, and Piloto are absent. Vinha and Micael return.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Ismailov, Rinaudo, van Wolfswinkel, Xandao, Arias, Bojinov, and Schaars are absent. Elias returns.
Beira-Mar – Balboa, Dudu, Rui Rego, Edson Sitta, and Andre Marques are absent.
Gil Vicente – No absentees.
Porto – Guarin, Djalma, Hulk, Rafael, and Sapunaru are absent. Rodriguez returns.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Levante – Navas, Barkero, Valdo, and Juanlu are absent.
Getafe – Leon, Lopez, and Ustari are absent.
Real Sociedad – Bella and Illarramendi are absent.
Sporting Gijon – Barral and Sangoy are absent.
Racing Santander – Colsa and Francis are absent.
Valencia CF – Guaita, Albelda, Hernandez, Cristiano, Canales, and Maduro are absent.
Malaga – Ruben, Joaquin, and Baptista are absent.
Sevilla CF – Fazio, Perrotti, de Moral, and Spahic are absent.