TFT Issue 303!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Atalanta Bergamo vs Genoa – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Serie A game between Atalanta Bergamo and Genoa.
I’m a bit biased towards Atalanta, if I’m completely honest. I’ve long been a “fan” of this side and I admire them despite them being a bunch of crazy, temperamental guys. They’re a talented side with plenty of fire and you’ll rarely see them give up a game easily.
Defending – well, it’s never been their forté. They’ll work hard for one another but are somewhat questionable positionally. Atalanta generally go over 2.5 goals in their away games with their dangerous counter-attacks rather than in Bergamo but the issue may be forced upon them today by an impressive Genoa side. Atalanta have conceded in all but three of their home games in Serie A this season, shipping four in their last two home games. They’re good on the ball and have plenty of attacking options in midfield and thus you have to expect them to do enough to score here, especially with Genoa’s defence still being ravaged by injuries. Leading goalscorer Denis is suspended, which is a blow, and I wouldn’t touch this bet if Genoa weren’t missing half their team but as they are, I’m happy to accept the chances of Atalanta contributing to the over 2.5 goals call here.
Genoa are not a good away side but they are playing well and importantly, they’re playing with confidence right now. All of their last seven games have gone over 2.5 goals due to carefree attacking and horrendous defending. They don’t have the composure to grind out wins but they do have the finesse to score goals with new signing Gilardino already amongst the goals for his new club. His experience in Serie A takes the pressure off pacey Palacio and thus Genoa have options up top. They’ve also loaned Belluschi from Porto although I don’t know if he’s eligible to play in this game or not but he’s a dangerous player, especially from distance. All in all, I like Genoa’s attacking options right now, especially with Ze Eduardo gradually returning to fitness. Defensively, though – they’re still a mess due to the continued absence of Bovo, Dainelli, and Antonelli. Kaladze and Moretti have experience and Granqvist is decent but there’s little cohesion and little pace between them and thus Genoa usually get caught out, hence them shipping twenty-one goals over their last seven games – an average of three goals conceded per game.
The above should mean that Atalanta have ample opportunities with which to score but I expect Genoa to cause some damage too. I’d hate to pick a winner here as no side has an easy game in Bergamo but over 2.5 goals looks juicy at evens.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional games
Sunderland vs Norwich City – both sides to score at 4/5.
I’ve definitely jumped on the Sunderland bandwagon of late with O’Neill making things happen for the mackems but they’re struggling a bit with injuries now and they don’t look so immortal all of a sudden. They’ve lost Brown, Cattermole, Bendtner, and Vaughan due to injury ahead of this game and the absence of Brown leaves their defence vulnerable and the absence of Cattermole means there’s nobody to break up the Norwich attacks. Both are problems because if you get at Sunderland’s full-backs (especially Richardson, who isn’t a full-back by trade) then you usually get a lot of joy. I’ve lost count of the number of times that Norwich have scored goals due to crosses from the right-hand side this season and given that Brown is missing from the middle of the defence, we realistically have to expect Norwich to score in this game. O’Neill has signed Kygriakos on loan for the remainder of the season to help out although I’m not sure he’ll be able to play in this game. Sunderland are attacking well with Sessegnon leading the team, though, and I expect them to score against a weak Norwich defence. Will they win the game, though? I won’t go against Sunderland at home often and I’m not going to start now but they’re a tough cookie so anything is possible. Norwich are a superb attacking team, though – I don’t recall a single game this season when they’ve not made chances to score and hardly any games have ended without them scoring. A surprise could be on the cards but the value for me is in taking both sides to score at 4/5.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Ghana vs Guinea – Ghana to win at 11/10.
The African Nations has been a bit harsh to me in the past couple of days so I’ll remain cautious here. Ghana are simply better than Guinea. Guinea rely on three key players; Ghana have a lot of good players. I think the two sides will cancel each other out relatively well in what should be a good tactical encounter. I expect a bit of a yawnfest for a spectacle, though, strange as it sounds for an African Nations game. Ghana have more options going forward than Guinea do, though, and I expect that to count ultimately. Both sides bring a lot of experience into this game and neither side wants to lose so expect a relatively cautious game. I can’t overlook Ghana winning this one at 11/10, though – they’re the second-best side in the tournament in my eyes!
Verdict: Ghana to win at 11/10.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory – Foscini, Cernak, Ferreira, and Velaphi are absent. Celeski and Pondeljak are doubts. Allsopp returns.
Gold Coast United – Moss, Broadfoot, Minniecon, Beekmans, MacAllister, and Porter are absent. Rigters returns.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Bellini, Capelli, Denis, and Frezzolini are absent. Peluso and Manfredini are doubts.
Bologna – Cruz, Kone, Loria, and Pulzetti are absent. Raggi is a doubt.
Cagliari – Nene, Rui Sampaio, and Eriksson are absent. Ariaudo is a doubt.
Catania – Campagnolo is absent. Capuano is a doubt.
Cesena – Lauro and Djokovic are absent. Ghezzal and Malonga are doubts.
Fiorentina – Kroldrup, Kharja, Olivera, and Babacar are absent. Salifu and Cassani are doubts.
Genoa – Antonelli, Bovo, and Dainelli are absent. Constant, Rossi, and Veloso are doubts.
Internazionale – Forlan, Motta, and Stankovic are absent.
Lazio – Alfaro, Brocchi, Cana, Kozak, Makinwa, Mauri are absent.
Lecce – Carrozzieri, Cuadrado, Esposito, Falcone, Giandonato, and Julio Sergio are absent. Corvia is a doubt.
AC Milan – Cassano, Strasser, Pato, Yepes, Merkel, Flamini, Gattuso, Boateng, and Aquilani are absent. Thiago Silva is a doubt.
SSC Napoli – Lavezzi is absent. Cannavaro is a doubt.
Palermo – Bacinovic and Hernandez are absent.
AS Roma – Burdisso, De Rossi, and Osvaldo are absent. Pjanic and Cassetti are doubts.
Siena – Brkic is absent. Terzi is a doubt.
Udinese – Armero, Asamoah, Badu, Barreto, Benatia, Coda, Fabbrini, and Pinzi are absent.