TFT Issue 316!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Malaga – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga game between Athletic Bilbao and Malaga. I’ll rarely go against Bilbao in the Basque country but at the same time I certainly wouldn’t be backing them to win today and I’ll explain why.
Athletic are competing on three fronts and have been all season long. At the start of the season, it’s not anywhere near as much of a problem because there’s a big gap between games and competitions respectively. However, enter the new year and those games are all packed together. Consider that they’ve played fourteen games in 2012 over a period of forty-four days, which roughly works out at an average of a game being played just over every three days. I love Bilbao but they do not have the depth to deal with this fixture congestion! Their most recent trip was to Moscow on thursday so they’re going to be tired here, especially after running around on a frozen pitch for nintey minutes!
The thing is with the Basques is that they’re battlers. Bielsa as a manager is a battler, too – he doesn’t even consider squad rotation unless it’s absolutely necessary. Therefore, Bilbao will probably field a full strength line-up here. That will be fine for the first-half but what about when the game drags on? It’s far from ideal for Bilbao and it will catch up with them sooner or later.
Javi Martinez misses out for Athletic today through suspension. In the past, I’d have considered him a big loss but I don’t at the moment because he’s deployed at centre-back and there are better centre-backs than him not in the team so it’s not a great loss. Nonetheless, Bielsa doesn’t believe in defending so God knows whether he’ll actually put San Jose alongside Amorebieta (as he should) – he’ll probably put Llorente there or something insane like that. Either way, Athletic attack a lot, score a lot, but almost always concede and that’s precisely what I expect here.
Malaga have a lot to learn about being a “big club”. They might have the personnel but they don’t have the cohesion nor the composure to do well away from home with any kind of consistency. Cazorla is one of the top playmakers in the Primera Liga but what does that matter if his team-mates can’t keep the ball? Or even win the ball back? Malaga struggle more than ever away from home, especially against sides that pressurise them, and they won’t find many venues where they’re pressured more than they are at San Mames, I assure you.
Quality-wise, Malaga have the firepower to do a lot of damage here with Ruud van Nistelrooy and Rondon both capable of finding the net. Youngster Isco is a doubt here but he’s a threat when he plays. Duda has returned and along with Eliseu’s surging runs forward, Malaga do have enough in the tank to allow them to cause problems and to score goals. Defensively, they’re a bit of a joke and that’s not likely to improve today with Demichelis absent at the back and Toulalan a big doubt in central midfield. Athletic will most likely run riot with their pace and skill and with Llorente in top form, you have to fancy him to score here.
Again, I can’t stress enough how much you should avoid the 1×2 market in this game. I would normally be all over Athletic against unconvincing Malaga but they can’t have much left in the tank when you consider how youthful this side is. Nonetheless, they attract goals either via samba defending or beautiful attacking football and given the lack of composure that Malaga have on the road, I think that this game should realistically be a nailed-on over 2.5 goals game, although I’m well aware that they’re famous last words!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Additional games
Club Brugge vs Kortrijk – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Well, this game is similar to that of Club Brugge’s recent encounter with Germinal Beerschot, in my view. I took Club Brugge -1.5 in that game and I’m happy to give them the nod here too.
Basically, there is only one type of side that Club Brugge can beat convicingly and it’s sides that attack them. Most Belgian sides won’t bother doing so here but Kortrijk will because that’s what they do. Kortrijk aren’t world-beaters but they’re decent, especially at home. They attack and can score goals but almost always concede goals as a result. If they come to Brugge playing the attacking game then they’ll get a lesson here, which is precisely what I expect as Kortrijk lack the defensive discipline of Zulte-Waregem, for example. Kortrijk may score here but Club Brugge should score a few. For me, the -1.5 handicap at 6/5 is well worth a flutter for Club Brugge here with the above in mind as they’re some distance ahead of their opponents.
Verdict: Club Brugge to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Zulte-Waregem vs Standard de Liege – both sides to score at 5/6.
This is a much harder game than it looks for Standard. They tend to struggle here as it is but with ex-playmaker Berrier likely to work his arse off to impress and Zulte-Waregem’s talismanic manager Dury returning to the helm, I suspect Standard are in for an even harder away game than normal here.
Standard have just come back from a tough trip to freezing Poland where they secured a 1-1 draw with Wisla Krakow, which puts them in a good position for the return leg. However, in the meantime, they have to battle their poor away form again against in-form Zulte-Waregem. Their hosts may not be the most prolific of sides but they’re good on the ball, physically strong, and very well-organised. Standard are well-organised too, especially at the back, but they’re going to have to do very well here to avoid fatigue. Zulte-Waregem will push them here and Standard do pose a threat on the counter-attack so I feel that the possibility of goals is there, contrary to what statistics may suggest.
Therefore, I do like the option of taking both sides to score here as there is a niche for it to work that I feel is quite likely to emerge!
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Anorthosis Famagusta vs APOEL Nicosia – away win at 11/10.
A lot has happened in Cyprus this week with the main consequence of it being that Anorthosis face a tough battle here. It was always going to be a tough game for Anorthosis but the crazy suspension of Laborde has not gone down well with the Anorthosis chairman, who has threatened to reveal information about officials etc. favouring certain clubs. It’s all a bit sketchy at the moment and I’d rather avoid going into it but what is blatantly obvious is that Anorthosis will struggle here. Their attack is utterly decimated with playmaker Laban joining leading attacker Laborde, leading goalscorer Rezek, and old hands Okkas and Konstantinou on the sidelines. Anorthosis effectively have no attackers here. Anorthosis scoring in this game would absolutely astound me without APOEL defensive help! APOEL may be tired from their hard game with Lyon mid-week but they surely must have enough in the tank to score a goal here and sit on it. I don’t believe it’d take them more than a single goal to win this game with the absentees listed in mind so for me, the away win for the officials’ darling APOEL is well worth a flutter at 11/10.
Verdict: APOEL Nicosia to win at 11/10.
Teplice vs Viktoria Plzen – away win at 11/10.
Teplice’s early season form must finally be gone now. A side with such an average bunch of players and no money can’t bring anything more than they already have. Keric has returned to Sparta Prague after his loan period experied and all that remains are predominantly inexperienced kids barring playmaker Vachousek. Teplice can be a tough cookie at home but there’s nothing about them that I fear. Plzen got a game in earlier this week against Schalke to improve their match practice and boy have they strengthened over the transfer window, bolstering their attacking and defensive options, which includes the signing of in-form striker Wagner. Plzen will definitely be vying with Sparta for the title this season and it’s hard to say which way it will go, really. Either way, Plzen are light years ahead of Teplice and if this game develops into the open game that I expect it to then Plzen should win this one comfortably, hence my call of the away win at 11/10.
Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to win at 11/10.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen – away win with +1.5 handicap at evens.
For me, one word sums up Ajax at the moment; “predictable”. That’s not a word that you can usually assign to the flambuoyant and entertaining Ajax of old but it’s one I choose to give them now. They played Man Utd a few days ago and did absolutely nothing for the duration of the game. Yes, Man Utd are a harder opponent to face than NEC Nijmegen but it’s not the first time that Ajax have been stopped from playing like this. Their lack of options, their internal issues, and their lack of strikers is doing them a lot of damage right now and I think the time is right to attempt to capitalise upon it.
Ok, so we’re at the Amsterdam ArenA here – that always, always gives Ajax the advantage, as we all know. Ajax love to knock the ball around, play a wide game, and trouble sides. Let’s face it – with a full compliment of players at de Boer’s disposal, Ajax are pretty damn effective too. However, they’re far from at full-strength here and too often we’re seeing Danish prodigy Eriksen carrying this team. Sulejmani plays well (and actually does what Ajax paid a huge amount of money for him to do) once in every ten games, Bulykin is nothing more than a poor man’s Pavlyuchenko, and Ozbiliz etc. are not ready yet. They’re forced into being ready because Icelandic attacker Sigthorsson is absent, as is Boerrigter. This makes Ajax not only poor in the finishing department but lightweight and short on options. Consider that they’re also missing set piece specialist Janssen, adventurous right-back Van der Wiel, and defenders Boilesen and Ooijer, and this side cannot be looked upon as anything other than “vulnerable”. This is Ajax’s third game in eight days and with so many players out, I just don’t think they have the depth to do the necessary here. Hell, Ajax have only scored in one out of their last three games in all competitions and may well struggle here too.
NEC themselves are no world-beaters but they play deceptively good football, which is something that they don’t really receive enough credit for, in my view. NEC have lost two Eredivisie games in a row now but they’ve been unfortunate in them both, I think it’s fair to say. NEC’s big problem is taking the chances that they create, which is something that they’ve struggled to deal with since the sale of Bjorn Vleminckx to Club Brugge. Still, Eriksen of Ajax isn’t the only talented Danish midfielder in the Eredivisie this season – there’s also Schone of NEC, who has been superb this season. NEC have relied upon him a lot and he’s duly delivered. Pastoor still has problems in getting Zeefuik to fulfil his potential up front with only Platje scoring the goals but there’s enough in NEC’s midfield to cause problems here. Additionally, NEC can play a more “free” style of football due to their reliability at the back, which at least partially stems from consistent Hungarian goalkeeper Babos. NEC are a bit of a contrast to Ajax but they’re efficient and they’re the kind of side that Ajax don’t want to face right now.
Taking all of the above into account, giving NEC a +1.5 goal head start today really appeals to me at generous odds.
Verdict: NEC Nijmegen to win with a +1.5 handicap at evens.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United – McKain, Birighitti, Izzo, Golec, and Mullen are absent. Susak and Dilevski are doubts.
Sydney FC – Ryall, Bridge, Petratos, and Antonis are absent. McFlynn returns.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht – Sarafi, Vargas, and Molins are absent. Suarez and Wasilewski are doubts.
Westerlo – Vanaudenaerde, Arbeitman, Cardoso, Deelkens, Owusu, Roef, Wils, Delen, Marcao, De Petter, Hemmen, de Kelver, and de Greef are absent. Kabasele and Reynaldo are absent too under their loan terms.
Club Brugge – Dhoest, van Gijseghem, Blondel, and Odjidja are absent.
Kortrijk – Capon is absent.
Zulte-Waregem – Matton is absent.
Standard de Liege – Buzaglo, van Damme, Gonzalez, and Felipe are absent. Vainquer returns.
Cypriot Division 1:
Anorthosis Famagusta – Laborde, Rezek, Laban, Okkas, and Konstantinou are absent.
APOEL Nicosia – Boaventura, Jorge, and Manduk are absent.
Nea Salamis – Leon, Pecaric, and Adamou are absent.
Ethnikos Achnas – Elia is absent.
AEL Limassol – Junior, Dede, Parpas, Gilberto, and Cafou are absent.
Ermis – Fasot, Goumenos, and Formika are absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Bohemians 1905 – Hartig, Abraham, Orolin, Bodecek, and Vyhnal may debutise. Skoda, Balek, Michalek, and Kraus have left. Nikl, Nespor, and Jindrisek are absent.
Jablonec – Valenta and Krajcik have left. Benes, Stochl, and Kocourek are absent. Novak and Elias are doubts. Jurca, Michalek, and Vukadinovic may debutise.
Mlada Boleslav – Fillo, Mares, Mach, and Boril may debutise. Neuwirth, Prochazka, and Reznicek have left. Fabian, Opiela, Kysela, Taborsky, Johana, and Synek are absent.
Banik Ostrava – Vrto and Kukec may debutise. Dreksa, Malcharek, and Jurca have left. Poliacek, Krbecek, Ferencik, and Vomacka are absent.
Teplice – Dolejs, Kalivoda, and Melunovic may debutise. Keric has left.
Viktoria Plzen – Prochazka, Berger, Wagner, and Neuwirth may debutise. Fillo, Bystron, Jiracek, Tichacek, and Danek have left.
German Bundesliga:
Schalke 04 – Faehrmann, Jones, Holtby, Howedes, and Obasi are absent.
VfL Wolfsburg – Polak and Vieirinha are absent.
Hannover 96 – Andreasen, Carlitos, Hauger, Miller, Pogatetz, and Lala are absent.
VfB Stuttgart – Audel, Gebhart, Molinaro, Delpierre, and Celozzi are absent.
Greek Super League:
Panaitolikos – Onwuachi, Edjenguele, Koutroumanos are absent.
Levadiakos – Kotitsas is absent.
PAS Giannina – Pantos, Wanderson, Tzimpoulos, and Skoufalis are absent.
Atromitos – Epstein, Itandje, Thomas, Balla, and Karamanos are absent.
Kerkyra – No absentees.
Doxa Dramas – Soiledis, Wellington, Papadopoulos, Abubakari, Leandro, and Wanderson are absent.
Olympiakos Piraeus – Miralles, Modesto, and Mellberg are absent.
PAOK Salonika – Fotakis and Ivic are absent.
Aris Salonika – Toja and Papasterianos are absent. Prittas returns.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Mori, Hadad, and Avsidris are absent. Rali’s last game before moving on.
Maccabi Haifa – Davidovich, Amasha, and Cesarec are absent.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Capelli, Carmona, and Manfredini are absent. Tiribocchi is a doubt.
Cagliari – El-Kabir, Eriksson, Nene, and Rui Sampaio are absent. Pinilla, Ekdal, and Cossu are doubts.
Cesena – Djokovic, Moras, and von Bergen are absent.
Chievo Verona – Morero is absent. Sammarco and Uribe are doubts.
Genoa – Gilardino, Bovo, Antonelli, and Moretti are absent. Mesto and Kucka are doubts.
Lazio – Lulic, Biava, Brocchi, Cana, Diakite, Konko, Makinwa, Mauri, Radu, and Rocchi are absent.
Lecce – Tomovic, Ofere, Julio Sergio, Grossmuller, and Falcone are absent. Delvecchio and Di Michele are doubts.
AC Milan – Seedorf, Strasser, Yepes, Mexes, Merkel, Ibrahimovic, Flamini, Gattuso, and Cassano are absent. Nocerino, Aquilani, and Amelia are doubts.
Novara – Dellafiore, Ludi, MNorganella, Porcari, and Radovanovic are absent. Marianini and Morimoto are doubts.
Palermo – Bacinovic is absent.
Parma – Paletta is absent. Galloppa is a doubt.
AS Roma – Burdisso and Kjaer are absent. Gago, Jose Angel, Juan, and Pjanic are doubts.
Siena – Brkic is absent. Bogdani is a doubt.
Udinese – Badu, di Natale, and Isla are absent. Pinzi and Barreto are doubts.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Groningen – Van de Laak, Kieftenbeld, Pedersen, Sparv, and van Dijk are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Tamata, Pieters, and Engelaar are absent. Wijndalum is a doubt.
FC Utrecht – Sneijder, Oar, van Dijk, Asare, van der Maarel, Nilsson, Mulenga, and Bovenberg are absent.
AZ Alkmaar – Johansson is absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Ooijer, Boerrigter, Enoh, van der Wiel, Sigthorsson, Boilesen, and Janssen are absent.
NEC Nijmegen – Will and Wellenberg are absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Annan, Propper, and Vink are absent.
Twente Enschede – Rendal, Landzaak, Tiendalli, and Verhoek are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Zaglebie Lubin – No news.
Wisla Krakow – Murawski, Sobolewski, Boguski, Diaz, and Jirsak are absent.
Gornik Zabrze – Slawik, Thomik, Danch, Nowak, and Bebenek are absent.
Legia Warsaw – Radovic is absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Feirense – Henrique, Diogo rRosado, Carlos Fonseca, Rabiola, and Fontes are absent. Serginho returns.
Olhanense – Mateus, Araujo, Ventura, Piloto, Micael, Luis Filipe are absent. Meza, Mexer, and Verissimo return.
Uniao de Leiria – Shaffer is absent. Late wages.
Beira-Mar – Tiago Cintra, Bura, Zhang, Artur, Sitta, and Dudu are absent. Joaozinho and Serginho return.
CD Nacional de Madeira – Rondon, Vladan, Stojanovic, Mihelic, and Aurelio return. Moreno, Costa, Barcellos, and Madrid are absent.
Academica de Coimbra – Saulo debutises. Rui Miguel, Orlando, Diogo Gomes, Araujo, Fabio Santos, Joao Dias, Mvom, Ferreira, Eder, Nivaldo, and Joao Real are absent.
Vitoria Setubal – First game in charge for Mota. Diego, Suswan, Tengarrinha, and Gallo return. Goncalves is absent.
Porto – Iturbe, Otamendi, Sapunaru, and Janko return. Pereira, Mangala, and Danilo are absent.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Capel and Jeffren are doubts.
Pacos de Ferreira – Michel returns. Javier Cohene, Tony, and Michel Lugo are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen – Anderson, Milsom, Osbourne, Folly, and Robertson are absent.
St.Johnstone – Anderson is absent.
Hibernian – Soares, booth, Galbraith, and Murray are absent.
Celtic – Lustig is absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Granada – Diakhate is absent. Jorge Ribeiro has left.
Real Sociedad – Zurutuza, Illarramendi, Demidov, and Elustondo are absent. Anostegi and de la Bella return.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Castillo, Ocio, Gurpegi, and J.Martinez are absent.
Malaga – Baptista, Gamez, Juanmi, Portillo, and Demichelis are absent. Toulalan and Isco are doubts. Camacho and Duda return.
Sporting Gijon – Ivan Hernandez, Cases, Damian, and Lora are absent. Canella returns. Nacho Novo has left. Javier Clemente’s first game in charge. Pedro Orfila set to debutise.
Atletico Madrid – Antonio Lopez is absent.
Real Mallorca – Kevin, Chico, and Pau Cendros are absent.
Villarreal CF – Rossi and Catala are absent. Nilmar is a doubt.
Levante – Juanlu and Borra are absent.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Armenteros, Dani Pacheco, Michu, Casado, and Arribas are absent.
Barcelona – Afellay, Villa, Pedro, Fontas, Dani Alves, and Mascherano are absent. Xavi is a doubt. Keita returns. Bartra, Muniesa, and Montoya are on stand-by having not travelled with Barcelona II.
Valencia CF – Canales and Banega are absent.
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Elche – Palanca, Mateo, Panos, and Pelegrin are absent.
Celta de Vigo – Joel is absent.
Las Palmas – Ruyman, Garcia, F.Suarez, Aythami, and S.Suarez are absent.
Gimnastic de Tarragona – Fuster, Powell, Juste, and Seoane are absent.
Recreativo de Huelva – No news.
Hercules Alicante – No news.
Turkish Super Lig:
Gaziantepspor – Dany, Muhammet, Orhan, and Karcemarskas are absent.
Orduspor – Fatih Tekke, Abdulkadir, Numan are absent. Garcia and Gosso are doubts.
Eskisehirspor – Sezgin is absent.
Karabukspor – Deumi, Guven, and Erdem are absent.
Kayserispor – Cangele is absent.
Trabzonspor – Vittek and Glowacki are absent.
Besiktas JK – Rustu, Aurelio, Hilbert, Toraman, Bebe, and Ismail are absent.
Genclerbirligi – Ozgur, Curri, and Emre are absent. Oktay is a doubt.