TFT Issue 3241!

Dinamo Kiev vs Juventus 

KO: 17:55  (UK time)

I’m taking a bit of a chance here because the Dinamo Kiev project under Lucescu is far from complete. In fact, it’s not been going for long. This team still needs to get used to life without a defensive manager at the helm, and that’s a big change for them, based on their displays over the past few years which basically saw talented attackers ostracised from the squad by Khatskevich, amongst others. Lucescu, despite protests from the club’s ultras because of his time at Shakhtar Donetsk, is trying to change that, and the early signs have been very encouraging. 

I still wouldn’t class Dinamo Kiev as ruthless finishers. I also sometimes get the feeling that they hang back a bit too much, you know? When counterattacking, or when attacking from open play, sometimes some of their players are a bit too uncertain as to whether to join the attack or not. That might not be too damaging in their own league, but it nearly cost them against AZ Alkmaar. If it weren’t for cataclysmic defending, they’d not have scored the goals that they did – and AZ Alkmaar missed some sitters at the end of that game. Small margins, folks, small margins.  

Still, I do like what is happening at the club. The talented young attackers they’ve got are all coming to the fore more. Tsygankov has regained some of his confidence, for example, and the quality of Rodrigues is finally being exposed. Verbic is getting back to his best, Supryaha is amongst the goals, and Shaparenko has been playing really well. Just imagine how good they’ll be if they continue to mature Danish winger Duelund, and get Shepelev, Besedin, and Rusyn into the equation more! I’m very optimistic about the future of this team because they’re going to be very good at attacking. For now, I think they’re still learning, and it’s going to take some serious balls for them to have a go at a huge team like Juventus. They can do it, though. They’re fast enough, and they’ve got the right manager to encourage it, so I believe the Ukrainians will try to make this into a good game, and that’s enough for me to take a gamble here. 

People are a bit unsure what to do with Juventus as Pirlo is in charge, and he has little to no managerial experience, but he does know football inside out. Furthermore, the Covid-19 situation in Italy, like in most countries, is not good. Ronaldo has missed out lately because of it, and presumably will miss this trip too. Juventus are not short of attacking options though, and in a game they’re likely to control for long periods, I don’t see them failing to score tonight. Will they win, though? I think they will, but it’s just not worth the risk at this time, not if newly-promoted Crotone can trouble them as they did at weekend. 

It’s the Juventus defence that bothers me. Their plans to create a new defence to ultimately phase out Bonucci and Chiellini have, so far, failed. The Caldara experiment failed, and the club appear to have given up on Rugani, hence his bizarre loan move to Stade Rennais. Now their hopes rest on de Ligt and Demiral. Both have lots of potential but it’ll take time. Aside from that, de Ligt has been injured lately so Juventus are stuck with either old/slow defenders, or young inexperienced defenders. That, coupled with overly attack-minded full-backs, makes them easier to create chances against, and easier to score goals against. 

I still rate Juventus as a top team, and they can beat most teams in Europe on their day. It’s just that, at this time, they look a bit suspect. There’s a chance that Lucescu and co. can capitalise upon such, and they won’t get a better opportunity to do so than this. I still think Juventus will nick it, especially if Dinamo Kiev’s goalkeeping situation hasn’t improved. There was talk a little while back that Shevchenko would have to draft in his old teammate Shovkovskyi, now a coach, as a registered goalkeeper because of injuries to Boyko, Neshcheret, and Morgun, leaving them with just Bushchan. He hardly covered himself in glory in Ukraine vs Germany, either, squarely responsible for the second German goal, which ultimately decided the game.  

For me, backing both teams to score at 9/10 makes the most sense here though.  

Verdict: Both teams to score at 9/10. 

FC Thun vs Winterthur 

KO: 18:00  (UK time)

I love FC Thun, but the odds on the home win look a bit too short for my liking here. It was nice to see them get three points on the board at weekend, and they played well in that game. Let’s be brutally honest though – they were up against part-timers Chiasso, who belong in the division below, and would be there now if not for the intervention of the Swiss FA. It was an under-strength Chiasso side too. I’d expect FC Thun to win that kind of game all day long, to be honest. I hope it does mean something more, and that it serves as a catalyst for a promotion push – but I doubt it. I need more convincing that they can cope with the changes made at the club, I’m afraid, because what I saw prior to the Chiasso game was scary. 

For those of you that don’t already know, FC Thun are an all out attack kind of team, and have been for as long as I can recall. Their defence isn’t even fit to play at this level, never mind the Super League, so FC Thun conceding goals should never, ever surprise anybody. It’s their attack that belongs in the Super League, and other clubs know it, hence the poaching of players like Tosetti and even Munsy of late, joining Bertone and Stillhart in leaving the club. That, fused with the continued absence of Dzonlagic, Salanovic, and Castroman, leaves FC Thun with less options than usual. 

Now, a team like this is not short of attacking talent, so don’t go into overdrive by the absence of the afore-mentioned. They’ve still got Schwizer and da Silva to call upon, both of which were excellent at Challenge League level for their respective clubs last season, and Karlen, a Super League level attacker. New striker Kyeremateng got a goal on his debut at weekend, and Chihadeh has done well too, as have their new Germans. In short, their attacking capacity is still very good. Their defence remains a joke, though – it’s somehow worse than last season too.  

Subsequently, FC Thun are involved in high-scoring games more than ever. They seldom try to make it other than that, to be fair, so tonight’s game should be no different. I still find them too short to win it, though. I need more convincing that they can beat a very good Winterthur side. Winterthur have a lot of quality, and haven’t been afraid to show it this season. FC Thun need to score a lot of goals in order to win this one, and I’m not convinced they’re in the right place mentally to do that. 

Don’t be fooled by the Winterthur injury list either, as I can only assume that most bettors have been. It’s lengthy, but most of them are backup players. I will say that any injuries on the day will cause Winterthur massive problems, though – their depth is in the minuses right now. Any player that gets injured in this game is going to be replaced by someone of far less ability; that’s the brutal reality here. However, their starting eleven is very, very good – at least from an attacking perspective.  

Winterthur’s excellent results so far this season are not coincidental. It’s the culmination of the careful planning of talented boss Loose, and the club’s preparation to punch a bit above their weight in the transfer market. No team at this level should be able to have a midfield containing Doumbia, Alves, Ramizi, and Calla, or even Arnold if he’s slotted in there. It’s just too good. They’ve found a replacement for departed striker Sliskovic too now, bringing in veteran forward Emeghara. He’s still very fast, and should be far more effective than the Austrian, affording Winterthur yet another invaluable attacking threat. 

My main concern with Winterthur is their defence. It’s not very good, and they’ve not worked hard to make sure that it is other than to make their midfield better on the ball. For this game though, this team is without a number of defenders. Goncalves has been out since his summer move anyway, but he’s joined on the sideline by Kamberi and Schupbach here, both of which have played in most Winterthur games this season. With regular shot stopper Spiegel still out, keeping FC Thun out here should be close to impossible.  

Therefore, I’m more than inclined to expect – and even demand goals! – in what should be a firecracker of a game between two attacking teams. Subsequently, I’m on over 3.5 goals at 9/10. 

Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 9/10. 

Neuchatel Xamax vs FC Wil 

KO: 18:00  (UK time)

Neuchatel Xamax surprised me by clawing a win out of their weekend encounter against Grasshopper Zurich. They showed some balls; good for them. They’re going to need them if they think that promotion is a possibility this season! 

I expected a unified front with Henchoz back at the club but I don’t expect them to win as many games as the bookies do. They’re lucky enough to have the oustanding Nuzzolo on their books; anything is possible with that wizard on the park. Their new Central African Republic recruit Mafouta has found it especially beneficial to play alongside him, already bagging twice for his new team. I also like how well their midfield is developing with Teixeira, Parapar, and Dominguez causing problems. They’ve also signed Basha on the sly in the past week or so, who will sit in front of the back four well enough. 

I have no strong feelings of positivity toward their defence though, which remains weak, and riddled by injuries. Epitaux, Pasche, and Farine remain out for the home team, which limits their capacity to stifle teams. It wasn’t as complicated as it should have been against Grasshopper Zurich because of how their opponents were happy enough to pass the ball sideways a lot, as is the Portuguese way against a team that parks the bus. Most Swiss Challenge League teams do not play that way though, and Neuchatel Xamax will find it harder to deal with FC Wil tonight, I am sure. 

I’ll freely admit that Neuchatel Xamax are further ahead than where I thought they would be at this stage of the season, and credit must go to Henchoz for that. He’s not working with an especially good squad, but he’s making it work. I’m not sure I can accept them being priced as short as they are to beat a good team tonight though. FC Wil may be a bit young but they’re not short of quality nor energy. Beating them will require a lot of stamina, determination, and clinical finishing – and Neuchatel Xamax are not quite there yet. Therefore, I am inclined to doubt the home team here, even at the Maladiere. 

FC Wil have impressed me a lot this season, playing some very attractive, bold football despite being full of young footballers. They’ve already beaten Aarau and recently relegated FC Thun, and it took a seriously good Grasshopper Zurich display and a lucky SC Kriens display to beat them recently. FC Wil are not the kind of team I expect to keep clean sheets but I do expect them to score plenty of goals themselves. They sure as hell do create a lot of chances! 

It’s the attack of FC Wil that excites me the most, as you can tell! Veteran Muntwiler has been paired with club star Fazliu midfield in a partnership that looks very promising indeed. Kamber has been brought back to the country after a disastrous spell in Croatia, and will do well at least level, as he has adequately proven in the past. They’ve still got Brahimi to come back into the fold too, so it makes for a very promising midfield, in my opinion. That midfield supports a very promising attack too with Jones, Ballet, and Camara as their young forwards, all of which arrived at the club with good reputations. They’re managed by Alexander Frei too, a brilliant striker in his day, and he arrived at the club fresh from his success with FC Basel U21 so he knows how to get the best out of youngsters. 

Everything feels very positive in the FC Wil camp at the moment, and that’s despite two straight defeats. I’m not so sure the bookies should be writing them off as lightly as they have done here. Neuchatel Xamax have a bigger reputation, and more proven star players at this level, but there’s still not much in it. Therefore, I think the value for this one lies in laying the home team at evens. 

Verdict: FC Wil to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at evens. 

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Chiasso 

KO: 18:00  (UK time)

Well, you can now all see the Kodro effect truly taking place in this team, can’t you? They’re conceding far too regularly for a team without a top-drawer attack, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. It’s a good job that Kodro inherited a close-knit group of fighters because without it, this team wouldn’t have won a game this season. Tactically, they’re all over the shop, and that’s really sad to see, given how brilliant they were tactically last season. Things have changed though, and truth be told, I expect this team to start spiralling at some stage because the Bosnia-Herzegovina man just can’t do the job required of him at this level, to be frank. 

Still, I don’t expect that to manifest itself tonight as they’re hosting Chiasso. Against Chiasso, any team that works its socks off will have the upper hand because the away team have very little quality. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy can at least boast that to be true, which is certainly not something that Kodro has miraculously brought to the equation. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are laden with hard-working powerhouses that are seriously hard to deal with. The athleticism in this squad is scary at times, honestly. Considering that they don’t have a star player, they score a hell of a lot of goals because of their superior physical specimens. That’s not changed, even with Kodro in charge, and it’ll be highly problematic for Chiasso to deal with tonight too, just as it was on their last two visits. 

Pleasingly, Lahiouel and Amdouni are already amongst the goals this season. With so many engines in this squad, it’s not hard to see why Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are never far away from scoring goals. They move the ball swiftly, their players give a shit, and they’re not afraid to send men forward regularly. I still don’t think Kodro’s arrival is going to do this team any favours whatsoever but whilst the remnants of his predecessor remain, this team should be given a wide berth by their opponents because they’re good, and they seemingly know no fear.  

Beating Chiasso does not take much though; that can’t be overlooked. This is normally the only stage of the season where they’re actually quite good but they’re struggling because of a complete lack of quality. They knew earlier in 2020 they’d be getting relegated and thus didn’t try to recruit like normal. Then, when the Swiss FA reinstated their Challenge League status, they panic bought whatever was available (yes, even moreso than usual) and that’s not left them with much. They look more insane than ever this season, to be frank. Still hard-working, yes, but not very good.

Now their attack, I like; Bnou Marzouk, Andrist, and Almeida can score goals, as can midfielder Bahloul, who miraculously stayed with them over the summer despite doing more than enough last season to earn a contract elsewhere. They recently added defensive midfielder Maccoppi to their squad too, trying to add more bookings, seemingly. Joking aside, I think he’ll stop them getting overrun quite as much as they normally are, but it’s still just the tip of the iceberg because Chiasso are basically a disaster. Even a good attack is redundant without the relevant service, and that’s one area they’ve really let themselves down on in the recruitment department. 

Their defence is a mess too, though. Has there even been a game this season where they’ve not been missing someone through injury and/or suspension? I can’t remember one. Gamarra was suspended, he came back, then Dixon got sent off, now he’s back, and Gamarra is out again, as is Hajrizi. Italian midfielder Strechie and Brazilian midfielder Silva join them on the sidelines tonight too. Because they’re a semi-professional club, these players are all part-timers, and that’s why they’ve always got a longer injury list than every other club at this level. Even with a full-strength starting eleven, this team would struggle to do well. With the constant problems they’ve got, especially in defence, it’s hard to be positive about their chances against…well, anyone. 

Therefore, I’m inclined to trust Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to beat the –1 Asian Handicap at 22/25 here, even though I am dubious about the long-term future of the team under the Bosnian bumbler! At least the Stade Lausanne-Ouchy problem can be resolved quite swiftly. Where would you even begin in trying to solve Chiasso’s many, many problems? I’ve no idea. So, yeah – convincing home win for me, or at least enough so for them to win by two or more. 

Verdict: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to beat the –1 Asian Handicap at 22/25. 

SC Kriens vs Grasshopper Zurich 

KO: 18:30  (UK time)

A single blip at the Maladiere, I can live with. There were always going to be blips with a new manager, as is standard at any club around the world, and Grasshopper Zurich are no exception. I saw more than enough before the defeat against Neuchatel Xamax to encourage me to trust Grasshopper Zurich though, and it’s not just because they’ve got one of the best squads in the Challenge League either, although it certainly does help! 

No, the Grasshopper Zurich approach is going to piss a lot of teams off this season because the approach is now exclusively centred around the team keeping the ball, and most teams at Challenge League level don’t do that. The game is more reminiscent of the Super League teams in the sense that it’s fast, it’s furious, and only attacking play is accepted. Trying to change that is a bold approach from boss Pereira, but he’s got the squad to pull it off, so why not? Let’s wait and see if it lasts the distance because not much does with Switzerland’s biggest club nowadays, I’m afraid. 

Still, I like what I’ve seen from them so far, and I like their squad. There is a lot of depth to it, and I recognise just how many different goal threats they’ve got now. I think target man Demhasaj is in for yet another superb Challenge League campaign, and the support he’s got is really very impressive. I mean, who else can boast Pusic, Yang (when fit), Henrique, and Santos at this level? Bonatini too, for that matter. Great options! They’re confident on the ball, very composed, and know how to make things happen. Bonatini and Ponde provide more direct support for Demhasaj, as does Gjorgjev, and it affords Grasshopper Zurich multiple ways to cause teams problems, not to mention the capacity to frustrate teams by simply keeping the ball. Even their defenders now look better on the ball too. 

Whether Pereira can overcome the mental block that this team has or not is another matter. Last season, they completely bottled their promotion push. Their heads went, and there was no way back despite them having arguably the best squad in the division. Another failure will not be tolerated for the team that still won the Super League more than any other outfit in the country. They’ll need to be at their best tonight, given that Nadjack is still out in defence, and also factoring in that Asumah added yet another goal to his tally against FC Wil for SC Kriens at weekend. Still, I have faith that they can do it, and they’re facing a poor team, so it really should happen. 

This is not a good SC Kriens side but they’ve found one hell of a hero in Asumah. He was amazing last season, even when more than 50% of their starting eleven was absent, single-handedly dragging them through a number of games. Having seen him pick up this season where he left off the last, I’m absolutely astounded that Young Boys Bern haven’t signed him yet, who are in dire need of a vibrant attacking option like that. They already had amazing success with Nsame, who dominated this level with Servette before making the move to the capital. The smart thing to do would be to buy him now before somebody else does but Seoane isn’t as smart as his predecessor so I doubt it’ll happen. 

Asumah carries SC Kriens though; have no doubts about it. They lost a lot of mainstays pre-season, including star attacker Siegrist, although he techincally left mid-season. They’ve still got a few veterans in their squad, and their work ethic is truly excellent. There’s no depth though, and no more than two good players, so a top team should not struggle to beat them – that’s the reality. They were lucky enough to scrape past FC Wil last time out but were easily beaten by both Neuchatel Xamax and Winterthur prior to that. If you’re prepared to work hard, SC Kriens have little else but Asumah to offer. I’d like to think that Grasshopper Zurich know that so as long as they don’t go into complacent mode, they should not struggle here. 

I think we’ll see a low-scoring affair here with the visitors dominating possession. Working on the assumption that the promotion hopefuls do take one or two of their chances, there’s no reason to believe that they’ll do anything but win this match, and at odds of 9/10, it’s a risk I am prepared to take. 

Verdict: Grasshopper Zurich to win at 9/10. 

Ascoli vs Reggiana

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

I don’t have a great deal to write about here; Ascoli are facing a Reggiana team that are without at least three first-team players because of Covid-19. More will probably follow by the time kick-off comes around, so it’s hard to imagine newly-promoted Reggiana having enough about them to deal with the away game against Ascoli, who are desperate for points after a slow start to their campaign. To be fair to Ascoli though, two of their three Serie B games have come against two teams just relegated from Serie A, and the other was a tough trip to Frosinone, so let’s not condemn Ascoli just yet, huh? They’re not going to get a better opportunity to win a game than this so it’s a home win at 13/10 for me.

Verdict: Ascoli to win at 13/10.

Chievo Verona vs Brescia 

KO: 20:00  (UK time)

Well, it’s happened sooner than I thought, but I’m glad it has – Brescia have sacked Delneri. Brescia needed a younger manager that brings more modern football, so in has come Lopez, who is a Serie A manager. Lopez knows the club from his last stint in charge…which was this year. Yes, he was sacked from his role in August after the club was relegated, but has just been reinstated because…well, it’s the smart thing to do. He didn’t do a bad job at Brescia; he was trying to mop up someone else’s shit with limited resources. I think he’s a good motivator, the Uruguayan, and he’s already shepherded them a 3-0 win against Lecce on Friday night. Alright, Lecce were missing a few players for that one, but you could tell how much the Brescia lads love playing for him by the way they worked in that game. 

Now, when a good team like Brescia starts working hard for a good manager, it bodes ominously for the rest of the division. They’ve been relegated with what I class as a Serie A level squad, and despite losing the likes of Balotelli and Tonali – both inevitable departures – this team is in very good nick. They all know each other, there’s a lot of quality to work with here, and the majority of these folk were here the last time Brescia got promoted from Serie B, including star striker Donnarumma.  

This Brescia side looks even stronger than the last time they were in Serie B, though. I mean, Zmrhal? Skrabb? Aye? And now van de Looi too? Honestly, if Brescia don’t push for promotion now they’ve got Lopez in charge, there’s something very wrong here. I appreciate their crazy owner can sometimes throw a spanner in the works with weird decisions (hence the appointment and sacking of Delneri over a two month period) but other than that, Brescia have more than enough to get promoted this season. They’ve got a strong defence, a brilliant midfield, and a very good attack. This is not a team that should struggle, to be frank. 

Brescia have had longer to prepare for this game than Chievo Verona as the visitors played on Friday night; Chievo Verona played on Saturday. It’s more than that, though – Brescia are simply a better side. That’s aided by Chievo Verona’s relative demise over the past few years, I suppose. Although still a relatively big name at this level, at no stage have Chievo Verona threatened to return to Serie A. They seem far too content to let good players go without replacing them, which is a shame – I have very fond memories of them from their time in Serie A. 

Their defence took a knock pre-season with Dickmann returning to his parent club – SPAL. They also lost midfielder Esposito to SPAL. Their star player last season was Segre though, who has moved to Torino now – that was the biggest blow of the lot. Those three players moving on, coupled with veteran creator Giaccherini’s injury, has led to some truly dismal Chievo Verona displays this season. The service into Serbian target man Dordevic has been poor, hence his lack of goals – that’s where Giaccherini comes in. They’ve not looked capable of keeping teams out. Most of all, they just look a little too predictable, Chievo Verona. 

The only one playing tonight that can make a difference for the home team is Nigerian midfielder Obi. The other players in this squad aren’t lazy, but they just don’t seem capable of making something happen from nothing like Obi and Giaccherini normally do. Even that is asking a lot of the two players, but now it’s just one, things are understandably going pear-shaped for the northern battlers. Well, at least it was just one until Obi got ruled out yesterday too! Their defence is still reasonable enough, even without Dickmann, but that in itself is not enough, especially not against a very strong Brescia side. 

In general, I try not to oppose the Verona clubs at the Bentegodi because they play very well here. However, Brescia are a lot better than this predictable Chievo Verona side, and their hosts are in a very vulnerable state right now. Therefore, I’ve got to view the away win with draw no bet cover at 13/10 as a good value pick here. 

Verdict: Brescia to win with draw no bet at 13/10. 

Reggina vs Cosenza 

KO: 20:00  (UK time)

Sooner or later, the bookies are going to cotton on that Reggina have been promoted to Serie B as a team that is perfectly well equipped to push for promotion to Serie A. That doesn’t mean that they will, of course – this is a very competitive Serie B this season. However, for now, the bookies insist on underestimating them, and so I insist on backing them as regularly as I can because the value is there. I was gutted to see them concede a last minute equaliser at Virtus Entella at weekend but at least the draw no bet was in place. This is a good team though, and one that should not be underestimated. 

Reggina get to play at home tonight, where they’re strongest. They’ve got one of the most potent and varied attacks in all of Serie B, for my money. I mean, I know he’s a bit of a prick, but how they’ve got Menez to play for them, I don’t know – this level is far, far beneath the outspoken French forward, and it shows. He can score a goal from any situation! Then you’ve got warhorse Denis, who has played in Serie A in the past for Atalanta Bergamo. He’s no spring chicken, but remains a pain in the arse to deal with. Then you’ve got battling Lafferty; nothing ever seems to faze him. When he’s fit, they’ve also got Charpentier to call upon. Honestly, this Reggina attack is going to ooze goals this season – I can see it coming a mile off! 

Impressively, they appear to be getting more out of ex-AC Milan academy graduate Mastour than anyone else has. That’s a real weapon because he’s such a talented footballer; a really natural creator. He needs to hone his decision-making and work-rate, but his technique and vision are far beyond Serie B level. If Reggina can tap into that on a more permanent basis, they’re set for a very good campaign. On top of that, Reggina have lassoed Faty and Crisetig into running their midfield; two very experienced players in Italian football. The balance that Toscano has struck in this attack is excellent, honestly. I’ve not seen a team as good as this promoted from Serie C since Parma. Their defence is good too, with Cionek and Rossi holding things together! All they need is a bit more time to get everybody familiar with one another as there has been plenty of new faces arriving over the summer. Once they do though, Reggina really should win most matches, including tonight’s affair against Cosenza. 

There should be a bit of bite to this one too, as it’s the closest either team has to a derby now that Crotone have gotten promoted to Serie A. Reggina haven’t beaten Cosenza in years, but they won’t have a better opportunity than this, not with tonight’s visitors still reeling from the departure of star striker Riviere, who committed the ultimate mortal sin of any Cosenza man by joining Crotone. He wasn’t the only one to go too – Kanoute, Asencio, Machach, Casasola – they were amongst the flurry of departures following Cosenza’s brush with relegation. 

This season, the southerners have demonstrated fight, which is to be expected of their region’s style of play – but little else. Most of their best final third players have now left, and Riviere/Asencio were the only ones that knew where the goal was. I see plenty of mobility and work-rate in the Cosenza attack this season, but I’ve no idea where their goals will come from. I mean, I know Sacko speaks the same language as Riviere, but that really doesn’t qualify him to be a direct replacement, you know? I always like the energy of Cosenza teams, but I’m struggling to see how they’re going to score enough goals to avoid defeat tonight.  

Therefore, I’m on the Reggina win at 21/20. 

Verdict: Reggina to win at 21/20. 

SS Lazio vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund 

KO: 20:00  (UK time)

My God, there’s a lot of people backing the Germans tonight, isn’t there?! I appreciate that SS Lazio haven’t been on UEFA Champions League circuit for quite some time now, but underestimating them to this extent is very bold. Their form of late has not been great, but then again, you have to appreciate that Inzaghi does not have he biggest squad to work with, and they’ve been missing a lot of players lately. Most of them are back for tonight’s game though! 

Indeed just Lazzari, Radu, and new arrival Pereira are out for this game. I would always prefer to have Radu on the pitch to strengthen SS Lazio’s defence but Felipe is back, Marusic is fit, Acerbi can play anywhere across the back four, and Hoedt joined not long back, not to mention that Patric is available, so I have no real concerns about the SS Lazio defence here. It’s not perfect, but it’s about at the same level as it usually is, and it should be well-protected by Lucas Leiva and/or Escalante, and that combination works for me here. 

The SS Lazio attack works for me too, given that star striker Immobile is available to play after missing the weekend trip to Genoa to face Sampdoria. New Kosovan striker Muriqi made his debut in that match too, so he’s finally able to represent the Roman club. Ecuadorian beast Caicedo can do a good job of bullying defenders, and with the brilliant Milinkovic-Savic available, not to mention Correa, Parolo, and Alberto, SS Lazio really aren’t short of good players to select for tonight’s UEFA Champions League affair. 

I think the one thing that bettors need to remember is that SS Lazio are now back in this position because of Inzaghi. These players play for him. Without him, there is no SS Lazio in Europe because they’re not consistent enough without him. I don’t know he’s galvanised these maniacs, in all honesty, but he has – and he’s done it bloody well too. They’re good at both ends of the pitch, SS Lazio, and they play as a team nowadays. They don’t possess the biggest of names on paper anymore – it’s not the 90’s, after all! – but they should not be underestimated. They’ve got a lot more to offer than tonight’s odds suggest. 

I can only assume the dropping odds on the away win are based upon SS Lazio’s absentees at weekend. I think those folk need to look at who Bv09 Borussia Dortmund are without tonight though; forget SS Lazio! I mean, what kind of defence are they going to put out there? In general, what they tend to do is use Akanji as the legs, and let Hummels push into midfield to support attacks from time to time. That’s because Hummels is slow, and Akanji is fast. Simple! However, the Swiss international is out here, and so is his deputy, Zagadou. That means Hummels will have to play a deeper role – against Immobile. Anybody else see the serious problem that might just cause the visitors, or is it just me? Let’s not forget that Immobile has a bit of a vendetta against Bv09 Borussia Dortmund from his ill-fated spell there too, which resulted in a public of war-of-words between him and Zorc. 

Bv09 Borussia Dortmund may have tried to push Can into the back four to help out, but he’s absent too. Now, his absence can be dealt with because Witsel is there – but that defence looks a serious problem for the away team. I also think that, with Can out of midfield, even Witsel’s presence may not be enough here in a game that the away team simply must keep the ball in – or that defence is going to take a pounding. Bv09 Borussia Dortmund have good wing-backs/full-backs but that’s only from an attacking perspective; when it comes to defending, they’re poor. If they get out of this game without conceding, it’ll be a miracle! 

Their attack is without Hazard but they do have alternatives. Sancho, Haland, Reus, and Brandt can cause problems here for obvious reasons. Reyna, Bellingham, and Reinier still look a bit ‘rabbit caught in the headlights’ at the moment but their maturing will come, given time. I still have grave concerns over Meunier playing the Hakimi role, though – he’s just not as smart as his predecessor, and wing-backs play a huge role in Bv09 Borussia Dortmund’s ability to break teams down. I like Favre a lot, and I trust him to do the right things for the club, but at the present time I have more questions than answers about the away team so why they’re such heavy favourites to win in Italy tonight, I have no idea. 

For me, the value in this game lies in backing SS Lazio to avoid defeat at 4/5.  

Verdict: SS Lazio to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 4/5.

Stade Rennais vs FK Krasnodar 

KO: 20:00  (UK time)

Is it just me that thinks that Stade Rennais are priced really short here? Is there not a very real danger that folk are getting carried away with this team? I like them, and I have for a few years now. I like their recruitment this season too. However, nothing has really changed about the Bretagne club. They still play the same style as ever, with the same strengths, and the same weaknesses. They might get away with that in Ligue 1 from time to time, and they sure have in most games this season. Of late though, we’ve begun to see the real Stade Rennais return, drawing with both Stade de Reims and Dijon FCO respectively because they’re incapable of keeping teams out.  

Now, I don’t want to appear to harsh on the home team, whom I do like a lot, as I said. They’re very entertaining, and won’t leave many games without scoring. I also appreciate that they’ve had complications to overcome in recent times with shot stopper Mendy moving to Chelsea, and his new replacement, Gomis, still injured. They’ve also missed key defender da Silva and midfield controller Nzonzi, and have had to integrate two new defenders in Dalbert and Rugani. I get it – it’s not easy.  

Essentially though, this is still the same Stade Rennais as ever, one that does not control games well enough to be taken seriously. They use the ball well when they have it, but do not keep it for long enough. Nzonzi’s presence in their squad helps enormously on that front; that’s why their form appears more consistent than usual. You saw what happened without him at Dijon FCO last time out though. They had to force injury-prone Grenier back into the line-up after basically freezing him out, and he was in no mood to do that job, and understandably so. They’ve treated him poorly, but at the same time, he’s injured a lot, so it’s a bit of a case of swings and roundabouts there. Without a controller though, Stade Rennais are very susceptible to opponents attacking them – do keep that in mind for future reference, please. 

Considering they’ve scored as many goals as they have this season with wonderkid Doku yet to play much, Niang out for a while, and both Lea-Siliki, Maouassa, and Hunou missing a number of games, not to mention having to integrate Guirassy, Stade Rennais have done really well. They’re going to need to keep doing really well now that they’ve sold Raphinha to Leeds United too; a good bit of business on their part, as I’m really not sure he can be any better than he currently is. They’re fast, they’re confident, and they’re completely unafraid of opponents so Stade Rennais will generally create chances, and score goals. Tonight’s game against an attack-minded FK Krasnodar should not be any different for them. 

Why they’re priced so short to win this game though, I’ll honestly never know. FK Krasnodar are far more experienced in Europe than they are, and have amply proven their worth in such games too. They’ve beaten a very good PAOK Salonika (over two legs) in order to be here, needing to break down the brilliant Greeks – which is painful, to say the least. In the past, they’ve troubled boatloads of teams though, including Valencia CF. For my money, FK Krasnodar are by far Russia’s most effective team in Europe because of their style of play, one that is so utterly compelling that Goncharenko at CSKA Moscow has begun copying – and he’s not the only one. 

True enough, the absence of Ari, and potential absence of Wanderson, are not ideal for the visitors. Both are very good, consistent attacking threats. However, they’ve got depth in the final third, and it’s their style of play that interests me the most as no one individual carries this team. It’s a team effort, and the way in which they move the ball makes them a very dangerous team indeed, especially now Remy Cabella is fit again to run the show. The French playmaker knows the home team very well from his time in Ligue 1, and should be a very handy inside weapon for the Russians tonight. 

I can’t help but feel like FK Krasnodar are going to cause Stade Rennais issues here, possibly even springing a surprise result. They’re not worse than Stade Rennais. They’ve been scoring lots of goals lately, as per usual, especially poacher Berg, who is in the form of his life. They’ve got brilliant attacking threats alongside Cabella, whether it’s wonderkid Suleymanov, returning Swedish winger Claesson, or rapid Dutchman Vihena. FK Krasnodar do not struggle to break teams down; only to keep them out. Their mental strength and tenacity tends to serve them better in Europe than it does domestically though, which is curious but accurate. I think that they’re more than capable of really pissing Stade Rennais off tonight, to be frank. 

I’d need to see team news before deciding on the 1×2 market. E.g. if Nzonzi doesn’t play, I really don’t see Stade Rennais winning, but if he does, they might. However, odds of 4/5 on both teams score is something I can’t really overlook here, so that’s what I’m going for. 

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.