TFT Issue 3242!

KI vs B36 Torshavn 

KO: 18:30  (UK time)

I like these types of games with B36 Torshavn having now taken a leaf out of Vikingur Gota’s book by abandoning tactics in favour of all out attacking football. It means that, despite being good on paper to upset their fellow Betrideildin top five teams, they tend not to. I’ve seen them get outsmarted in every single Torshavn derby this season, for example, They were humped by NSI Runavik away from home not long back, and although they’ve done well against KI this season, I just don’t see it happening again here. 

As inspiring as the B36 Torshavn run in Europe was, and no matter how highly I rate their attack, I just don’t think they’re organised enough to deal with KI here. They’ve got Danish striker Pingel back from injury, which helps, and I really do rate Frederiksberg, Radosavljevic, and Przybylski highly. All this team can literally do is try to outscore other teams though, rather than attempting to nullify them in any capacity. As one of the top teams in the Faroe Islands, that doesn’t tend to matter too much – but it should here.  

B36 Torshavn’s displays of late have actually been quite sloppy, probably as a consequence of their prolonged run in Europe. Losing against HB Torshavn was expected, but they struggled with Skala, and were far too casual when in possession of a strong lead against EB/Streymur. I also think it’s fair to say that they’re lucky that TB still don’t have a striker that can hit a barn door because B36 Torshavn may not have won that game if they had, and that’s despite the numerous absentees TB had for that match. Bluntly put, the form guide doesn’t tell the full story here. The B36 Torshavn attack is good; the rest of what I’ve seen is not. 

KI themselves haven’t exactly been scintillating lately, but they’re at least able to grind out wins. KI have a solid defence, you see. With Midtskogen and Klettskard as designated target men, and Nigeria’s Ibrahim Aliyu now on their books, Faero has been brought back into defence instead of playing as a target man. Playing alongside Pavlovic, Brinck etc. in front of Joensen is basically a pure wall at times. Getting past KI is painful, basically, and that’s been especially true at the business end of the season. This is a very good all-round team; one of just two capable of challenging HB Torshavn in the battle for the title. 

KI have a very good attack themselves, as it goes. It’s not shown as much as it should have this season because they’ve not been as clinical as usual. This team does not struggle to control games in general though, whether in Klaksvik or not, and that tends to lead to wins. They’ve got excellent lots of players that are excellent at headers – probably the best in the country, actually – so they’re a threat from both crosses and set pieces. It’s more than that, though – the way Bjartalid breaks the lines through the middle, and the way in which Johannesen, Danielsen, and Andreasen support him is superb. This is a very dangerous attack, one that is smart enough to know when to reign things in a tad if required. They’re flexible, KI, and that’s what should give them the edge against a sloppy B36 Torshavn here. 

Therefore, I’m happy to back the home win at 5/4.

Verdict: KI to win at 5/4. 

AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Liverpool 

KO: 20:00  (UK time)

As galling as the late winner being ruled out was in their derby at weekend, Liverpool have surely got to be more irked by the Pickford assault on van Dijk, and not just because it looked like something from WWE, but because van Dijk has now done his ACL. Given Alisson’s injury, Liverpool suddenly have more defensive problems than folk are realising. It was those two signings that catapulted them into being a title-contending team. Before that, they were a very entertaining attacking team that would always concede two or three goals per game. Now both are out, I have to believe that the old Liverpool will return, and that places their trophy hunt in real jeopardy.  

I’d love to believe that means that AFC Ajax Amsterdam would hammer them tonight – but I doubt it. To be honest, if there is a massacre, I think it’ll be Liverpool that do it. Not many English teams have the balls to take the game to Liverpool nowadays because they fear their counters, and they find them hard to break down. AFC Ajax Amsterdam will not play any other way than the only way they know how to play – to attack, to score goals, and to win games. There’s no fear from AFC Ajax Amsterdam of superior teams either, which is both brave and foolish. I like that they’re going to have a go here, and in theory, we should see a cracking game. However, I can’t help but feel that the Dutch heavyweights are walking straight into Liverpool’s trap. The Liverpool defence may be a mess, but their attack looks really good; always capable of scoring that extra goal whenever they need it. 

It’s not just Alisson and van Dijk that are the problems here though. Matip is still a doubt, for example, and with Lovren having left, Liverpool are running short of options. Alexander-Arnold has really struggled defensively over the past few weeks, nearly as much as Gomez, and only Robertson has shown any consistency although even he has made some uncharacteristic errors. This is not a team that I believe can keep clean sheets right now. That’s not the end of the world for them, not with an attack that almost always seems to do enough to win matches. It’s a concern though, and it’s an area that their hosts should be able to capitalise upon tonight – to an extent. 

I think you need to be smarter than AFC Ajax Amsterdam are to actually beat Liverpool though. At some stage, you need to sit back and make them work to break you down, and the home team just can’t play that way. Their defence is full of players that are there to support attacks, not to exclusively defend. They wouldn’t have football careers if they were judged solely upon their defending, I assure you! Instead, what the home team will do is press high and hard (hence the signing of Klaassen), and try to keep Liverpool on the back foot with attacking play. 

Now, in the final third, they do have good options, AFC Ajax Amsterdam. Ordinarily I’d expect the visitors to contain their hosts more but without their defensive mainstays, I’m not sure that they can. With a seriously underrated playmaker like Tadic, the quality of Neres, Antony, and Traore as support acts, not to mention the speed of Promes, Kudus, and Labyad though, the home team have enough weapons to cause Liverpool problems here. They do lack a natural finisher with Huntelaar sitting out most games nowadays, but they’ve got a style and a work-rate that should make this game interesting at this moment in time. 

I still think Liverpool are more likely to win it, but we should now see a more open and goal-filled game because of Liverpool’s absentees so I’m happy to take over 3.5 goals at 99/100. 

Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 99/100. 

Bayern Munich vs Atletico Madrid 

KO: 20:00  (UK time)

I like Atletico Madrid, but as I’ve said on numerous occasions over the past twelve to eighteen months, they’ve outgrown a manager like Simeone. He’s a legend there, I know. They should build a statue of him outside the beautiful Wanda Metropoliano for the marvellous work he’s done at such a turbulent club. They should name a stand after him. I know! Everybody has their shelf life though, and I now feel – rather consistently – that Simeone is holding Atletico Madrid back. This team is capable of playing devastating attacking football yet he almost always makes them defend instead. The best football this team plays is when they’re losing, which is horrendous when you think about it. When they’re losing, they look very good at breaking teams down. When they’re not, they look sluggish, nervous, and ineffectual. 

The cherry on the cake for me was the bizarre pre-season transfer business SImeone made Atletico Madrid conduct, which was letting one of Spain’s best strikers Morata leave for Juventus whilst bringing in a Luis Suarez that has not been at his best for at least two years now, which is perfectly logical because he’s ageing. He’s still an excellent footballer but he’s not an excellent finisher anymore; that’s the reality. Why would you sign a 33-year old on his way out to replace a striker that is about to enter his peak years as a footballer? It just doesn’t compute in my head, sorry. It’s a cataclysmically wrong decision from the Argentinian, and one that makes no sense. 

I think he did well to pre-empt the departure of Partey, bringing in Torreira from Arsenal. They’re not quite the same type of player; Partey is stronger, but Torreira is a better footballer. It won’t be as damaging as it could be, basically. It will be in games like tonight’s trip to face the reigning champions, though. That’s when you need your best players, and Simeone has just let two of them leave. I appreciate he had no say in the Partey deal, given that Arsenal met the minimum fee release clause, but this is not an Atletico Madrid that impresses me anywhere near as much as they should. 

They’ve got so much quality in this Atletico Madrid squad, and yet it always seems to go to waste via this awful defensive, Mourinho-esque football. Suarez is not a good finisher now, in my opinion, as I said earlier. However, he could be deadly in this team if Atletico Madrid played a more fluid attacking style, just like Barcelona CF, with Felix, Ferreira-Carrasco, Correa, Saul, Koke, and Costa. Simeone just won’t do it though, and I fear that Suarez is going to be very isolated tonight because it’s him that’ll be leading the line with Costa out. I don’t see that deterring Bayern Munich from their customary high defensive line; do you? 

The Atletico Madrid defence isn’t as good as it used to be either, not with Godin’s days at the club at an end. They concede goals more easily now, and they’re going to be sorely tested against what I class as the best attack in Europe. Sane may be out, but you just know that Lewandowski will get service from Gnabry, Muller, Costa, Goretzka, Davies, Kimmich, and even overrated Coman. This team is fast, energetic, fit, and bloody dangerous. Even their kids look brilliant! Lewandowski gets better every time I see him, too – absolutely ruthless in front of goal, and unquestionably the best striker on the planet right now. 

On top of that, Bayern Munich have assembled a group of fast defenders to enable them to play higher up the park, to press higher up the park, and not get caught out anywhere near as much as most for doing so. This makes them so intimidating and difficult to deal with. They’re very good at pretty much everything, the Bavarians, and they score as many goals as they want to in each passing game. I just don’t see what Atletico Madrid can bring to the table to stop Bayern Munich here, to be frank. 

Bayern Munich’s style, fitness, conviction, and finesse makes them too much for Atletico Madrid here, in my opinion. If Atletico Madrid played more boldly then I might be more hesitant about trusting the reigning champions as much as I am here. However, because Atletico Madrid’s away displays in Europe have not changed a jot in Simeone’s entire managerial career at the club, I feel like everybody knows what they’re going to do, Bayern Munich included, and that the home team will not fail to punish them for it. 

Therefore, I’m on Bayern Munich to beat the –1 Asian Handicap at 91/100.

Verdict: Bayern Munich to beat the –1 Asian Handicap at 91/100.