TFT Issue 3243!

HIFK vs RoPS 

KO: 16:00  (UK time)

Despite the most woeful defensive show I’ve seen from some time on RoPS’ trip to Turku last time out, I would urge a bit of caution with regard to backing HIFK here. They aren’t the best at controlling games and taking chances when Yaghoubi is out, and ‘Mosa’ is out today, as is Brazilian forward Vitinho. Truth be told, if it were most other Veikkausliiga sides that were facing a HIFK side in this condition, I would consider backing them to beat the capital club. 

Not RoPS, though. I doubt any of you would believe me if I said that they weren’t as bad as the scoreline reflected on their trip to the Veritas, given the rather condemning nature of it. However, it’s the truth. RoPS weren’t that bad. They were lacking in confidence in the final third – that was evident enough, what with wayward crosses, and a bit of poor decision-making. In general though, I thought they kept TPS at bay well enough, and kept them on their toes by using their speed out wide well, especially through Banza.  

Where it all went wrong was in defence for RoPS. Honestly, I don’t even have the words to describe what happened; it was literally Sunday League stuff. The defending, in every sense of the word, was horrendous. They didn’t mark up properly, didn’t take their opportunities to clear the ball away from danger, the goalkeeper didn’t defend his posts well – everything you can think of. They look very short of confidence at the back, far more so than in attack, and it’s punishing them. Even a HIFK side bereft of Yaghoubi and Vitinho should not fail to punish them for it here. 

RoPS have got to keep going, though. They have to keep fighting and believing that they can avoid relegation. It’s not going to happen, but the very fabric of this club was built upon sweat, blood, and tears. That’s what got them through their darker Ykkonen years, after all. These are tough times for the northerners financially, but they can still get through it with the right application. They may concede a lot of goals between now and the end of the season, RoPS, but the majority of their remaining games will be against fellow bottom six clubs, and they’ve got far more chance of picking up points from such encounters than they do against the top six. 

They just need to keep their attack in order, as that’s their strongest area. Kokko, flanked by Banza and Rahimi, will lead to goals. However, he sat out the trip to Turku; I’ve no idea why. Kokko is their best finisher so to be without him is particularly problematic at this stage. Unfortunately for RoPS, only wins count now. Drawing games of this nature are no longer of any use, so they need to have a go. Now, that might work – they’ve got enough in attack to make it so – but it might also see them get their arses whipped by a good counterattacking team. I can’t make up my mind there, and shall be cheerfully avoiding the 1x2 market altogether. However, deploying that necessary approach will lead to goals, whether it’s RoPS scoring or conceding them, and that is what I am interested in. 

You see, if you park the bus against HIFK, it tends to annoy them. Not entirely, but mostly, especially since their new managerial duo took over. Well, I say ‘new’ – it was a few months back now! They’ve made HIFK sharper in everything that they do, especially on counters, but they look less effective at trying to flay defences open. However, RoPS really can’t afford to take that approach here, as they need to win.  

Where it gets really interesting, though, is that HIFK need to win too. A top six finish for the capital club may be a bit of a pipe dream, but it ain’t over ‘til it’s over, and they lose nothing by giving it a shot. However, that means winning their last two games, so they’ve got to have a go too here. They’re the more likely side to win it, HIFK, but they’re hardly flying themselves at the moment with zero wins in seven matches. They’re making more mistakes than usual in defence, and the absence of Mattila on several occasions (injury and/or suspension) has crippled them there, although the midfield scrapper is back today.  

To me, it looks more like fatigue than anything. Imagine a team working as hard as KuPS but without their fitness levels, and you get HIFK. Their target man Tukiainen has been particularly good lately, and I have no qualms about the continued quality and promise of both Mattsson and Fofana, but this team does lack a bit of something at the moment. You might say it’s belief, or energy, or even just motivation. Whatever the case may be, they’re not firing on all cylinders, and that makes me doubt the home win more than I should. 

Therefore, I’m quite happy to roll with over 2.5 goals instead. Both teams have to try and win, and neither convince me at the back, so it would make sense if it happened. 

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5. 

Inter Turku vs TPS 

KO: 16:30  (UK time)

I backed Inter Turku to do well in the last Turku derby, and they were absolutely awful. Let’s hope that I’m not their kiss of death, shall we? 

In all honesty, it makes crystal clear sense to back Inter Turku here, at least from a logical perspective. Riveiro has finally reverted back to his normal system rather than overloading the starting eleven with forwards, and would you believe it, Inter Turku have started playing swimmingly again. Funny old world, eh? I won’t criticise him too much because he’s the best thing that has happened to Inter Turku in years, but he definitely called that one wrong, fielding the likes of Kallman, Valencic, and Furuholm together. Just use the two, keep the two sitting in front of the back four, and you’ll win most games – that’s the ticket! 

Working on the assumption that beating two of the best teams in Finland 2-0 apiece in their last two games is enough to make Riveiro keep playing this way, Inter Turku should not be doubted here. They’re by far the better team, as the bookies have correctly identified. They’ve got two players per most positions (but not all), and they’ve got a very good understanding in their squad. I like the way they control games, Inter Turku, and the way they shut opponents down when they’re like this. It’s really impressive to see for a team that has had serious mental problems over the past few years, often bottling it in far lesser games than this one. 

What I like the most is their attack though, because it’s deadly. It’s the only attack in the country capable of rivalling HJKs. You all saw what Valencic and Furuholm did together last season before the Slovenian moved to Stabaek. Furuholm on his own was good, especially with the odd cameo from Liliu and Kagayama, but it wasn’t quite the same. Then they managed to bring back Benny Kallman, who impressed at Inter Turku the previous year as a fast and dangerous striker. He wanted to come home and prove his worth after not being given a proper shot in Norway, and he was terrific as soon as he returned. Then they managed to re-sign Valencic, which was yet another phenomenal signing. Subsequently, the blue-and-black of Turku have been left with a battering ram, a rapid finisher, and a creator-cum-goal-scorer – there can’t be a better variety than that, can there? 

When they’re in the right setup, Inter Turku are basically good at everything. They’re in that place right now, and with a title push in their sights, they need to keep winning. KuPS have dropped points lately, and Inter Turku cannot afford to give them an inch on that front so wins are paramount. They’re good enough to control this game win it, and they’re good enough to hammer TPS, truth be told. Derby or not, there’s no reason to think it can’t happen. 

The Veritas Stadion may not be an unfamiliar venue for TPS, given that they share it with Inter Turku, but that’s the only positive I can find for them here. Johansson has more complications to deal with today now that defender Pikkrainen (again) and midfielder Peraaho are both out, reducing his options further. Who knows – he may be forced to bring their best midfielder Strasser in after his ten minute cameo against RoPS. He’s sat out matches for quite long enough now. With Karlsson and Espinosa still out for TPS though, it doesn’t take much for Johansson’s squad to suddenly look very thin, which it is.  

The more pressing issue at TPS is their lack of quality, though. I’m not really bothered about their 4-1 win against RoPS last time out, which was handed to them on a plate by RoPS themselves. I’m more interested in their displays prior to that in which they consistently got outplayed. To be fair to TPS, the form guide flattered them before that because they should have lost all of the three games they drew in September. This team is quite simply not good enough for this level, and I doubt my opinion would change even if star striker Espinosa had been available this season. 

TPS concede more goals than ever since Johansson took over from Pikkarainen because he makes them play more adventurously. Unsurprising, given the type of footballer he was during his time. As much as he’s improved their ability to score goals though, he’s also made them concede a lot more. Shocker, eh? He’s played a significant role in developing youngsters like Pyyhita and especially Haarala, both of which have been excellent this season (especially the latter), and neither of which I expect to be at TPS next season. Other than that though, this is a team comprised of grafters from the Ykkonen with a bit of speed up front, and some butchers at the back. It’s not enough, especially not against Inter Turku. 

I appreciate that this derby does tend to matter more to TPS than Inter Turku, or at least that’s the feeling I get from watching them play one another, but they’re poles apart right now. If Inter Turku cannot make that count here, then there’s something very wrong. For me, backing the ‘home’ team to beat the –1.5 Asian Handicap at 6/5 is a risk worth taking, derby or not.

Verdict: Inter Turku to beat the –1.5 Asian Handicap at 6/5. 

KuPS vs Haka Valkeakoski 

KO: 16:30  (UK time)

Although KuPS have now lost two on the spin, the form guide really doesn’t tell the full story. Like all teams in the world, they’re sometimes subjected to periods where goals are not easy to come by. They’ve played as well lately as they have all season long but just haven’t had that degree of luck – at either end of the pitch, actually. Let’s be fair – they’ve faced two really good teams lately. I’d like to think that’d change in this game, however, as Haka Valkeakoski do not fall into that category. 

I can’t award Haka Valkeakoski with the title of ‘worst defence in the Veikkausliiga’ because RoPS, bless their woolly northern socks, have guaranteed themselves that title with the most atrocious defensive display in their hammering at TPS. The game itself was fairly even, but the scoreline wasn’t, and it was all the fault of RoPS. However, I think Haka Valkeakoski just about shade the runners-up prize ahead of TPS. I at least know that TPS can defend; it’s more about boss Johansson playing attacking football than the team itself. Pikkarainen proved, during his time as manager, that they can frustrate teams. At no stage this season have I seen newly-promoted Haka Valkeakoski defend well, though. 

Yes, they do play attacking football too, but it’s more than that. I can’t honestly say that Tainio’s men ever really truly try to ‘hold’ a lead. However, they do have a mode whereby they’re more content to pass their way around midfield with less attacking intensity than usual. That’s as close to defending as they get. Even during such times though, they’re horribly open to being counterattacked, and they almost always concede as a consequence of such. If it wasn’t for Tainio’s brilliance as a manager, and his ability to get the best out of his team’s attack, they’d be screwed by now, I assure you. 

Haka Valkeakoski had the audacity to attack KuPS in their last meeting, which was the reversal of this fixture. Of all the teams it doesn’t make sense to attack in Finland, KuPS are the highest. They intercept counters well, they break up attacks better than most at this level because of Adjei-Boateng, and they’re laden with fit, athletic, dangerous attackers. Attacking them is complete suicide – but Haka Valkeakoski did it anyway. I applaud their boldness, but also cringe at their naivety. If HJK don’t play that way against KuPS, why the hell would anybody else try it? 

I don’t see an alternative for Tainio and co. though. This team is simply not capable of keeping teams out. I know they’ve been without defensive regular Starck for most of this season but based on his display against TPS, I bet they wish he was still out! I kid, but he didn’t play well, and why would he after so long out? The fact he was thrown back into the squad tells you how desperate they are. Again, this team cannot keep teams out. All they can hope to do is attack well enough to outscore teams, which sometimes works. It’s served them quite well of late but good teams will generally punish them for it, and KuPS are currently one of the top teams in the country so there are no prizes for guessing what I think will happen here. 

KuPS are just deadly. Erlandsen has done such a good job there, and to do it despite public criticism from his own players about his rigorous training routine at the start of the season only impresses me more. The players he’s attracted to this club because of their attacking style is superb. The way that KuPS seem to be able to anticipate all of their opponents well in advance is superb. They’re not perfect, the lakeside club, but they’re organised enough to make it look like they’re utterly infallible a lot of the time. Getting at them is so damn hard because nobody else in this division has as much fitness and general athleticism as they do. 

Consider the speed of their forwards, pressing from the front. Then, assuming defenders manage to play their way out of that situation, factor in that Adjei-Boateng is bearing down on you, forcing you into errors. Unless you’ve got a team laden with Spanish or Italian players – not so common in Finland – then you’re going to struggle. One of the best displays I’ve seen deployed against KuPS this season was Ilves a few weeks back. Ilves had to be at their absolute maximum in that game, and they were the form team in the Veikkausliiga when they met. Even after that, Ilves were lucky to get the draw. There’s simply no way out against such a team because every time they win the ball back, they can play in one of their rapid attackers behind the defence and cause problems, and that relentless pressure leads to goals. 

KuPS are just too good, honestly. Inter Turku and FC Honka Espoo had to be seriously good to beat them lately, and that’s credit to the title hopefuls. Those two teams can scale levels that are currently impossible for Haka Valkeakoski though. KuPS were also without star Nigerian winger Sale in those two games, which was a bad time for him to be out. I’m led to believe he’s back today but no official sources have confirmed it so let’s wait and see. I’m not so concerned about him potentially missing this game, though. Haka Valkeakoski, simply put, are not capable of stopping KuPS. The only question is how many they’re going to be able to score themselves, and I don’t see it being too many. 

These two teams are chalk and cheese in terms of capability, effectiveness, balance, preparation, and quality. I have to believe that KuPS are going to beat the –1.5 Asian Handicap with that in mind. 

Verdict: KuPS to beat the –1.5 Asian Handicap at 51/50. 

SJK vs Ilves 

KO: 16:30  (UK time)

This is not a game I would often consider backing over 2.5 goals in. Ilves are a very shrewd, calculating team, and SJK are not too dissimilar, although they still have some distance to go before I can trust them as much as I trust Ilves. 

However, at this stage of the season, teams are getting desperate. SJK need to win in order to keep their top six hopes alive, but Ilves cannot afford to lose for the same reason. Given Ilves’ penchant for counterattacking goals over the past month or two, I’m inclined to believe that this game will be a lot more open than it usually is. I’m struggling to pick a winner, though – I’m with the bookies on that one. On paper, I’d marginally favour SJK. In reality, I’d marginally favour Ilves. There’s nothing in it, really. Either team winning this match would not surprise me. 

I just don’t see it happening in a thoroughly professional fashion, though. Defender Aspegren may have played well enough to earn himself a spot in ‘team of the month’ for the Veikkausliiga, but his team still concede quite regularly now. I trust their defensive setup, but their defenders themselves have been better than the current crop are, if that makes sense. There’s always that possibility that Ilves will concede, basically, and even with Ledesma suspended for the home team, I still think they’re playing well enough to capitalise on such. 

Where Ilves become a pain to deal with is in midfield and up front though. Mettala’s still out, which is a shame because he’s been electric for the Tampere club when he’s been on the pitch this season. However, the arrivals of Missi Mezu and Stenio as strikers affords Wiss boatloads of attacking options for Ilves, so I am not too concerned, especially as Stenio knows the Veikkausliiga inside out already from his time at FC Lahti. Ala-Myllymaki is as brilliant as ever, and emerging talent Skytta looks the part too. Factor in the speed of Fofana and you’ve got one hell of a strong attack here, one that is as good from open play as it is on the break, not to mention from set pieces. 

How are SJK going to deal with that? I can’t see it happening, personally. I watched their game in Aland last time out, and how a game that they were completely controlling went from 1-0 to losing 2-1, I couldn’t say. At least they demonstrated their new mettle by turning the game around and winning 3-2, but that’s not the point; they should not have relinquished their dominance of that game when they did. To do it as they did, too – my God! It was like the old SJK had rolled into town, conceding stupid goals at stupid times. Mind you, the old SJK would never have taken the lead in Aland so there’s that. Pissing about with the ball in their back four until Backaliden scored was just pathetic, though. The penalty given away was sloppy too.  

Still, I think SJK demonstrated their resolve really well. Don’t forget that IFK Mariehamn are their bogey team so to come from 2-1 down to win 3-2 away from home was really good. The Ledesma goal was particularly well-worked, and although Hradecky’s strike was more ‘hit and hope’ than off the training ground, it still showed the mental strength of this SJK team, which just keeps growing. They’re not perfect, but they’ve improved a lot under Honkavaara. Their style is better to watch, they’re better in front of goal, their newbies have settled in well, and they’re far more resolute. This is an SJK that I can get on board with, and it’s one that, whether they beat Ilves or not, will give it a damn good go. 

Subsequently, I’m expecting an interesting match here. Ilves are going to have the luxury of countering in Seinajoki, which they’ve become really, really good at. I don’t really see the home team escaping this game without conceding one or two goals. However, they’ve become really effective in attack, which I like. Ledesma did play a big part in that, admittedly, and he’ll be missed today. I believe Jervis could play in a more advanced role to stand in for the big Argentinian though, and that should allow them to continue playing as they are. If that can happen, and they can still keep their confidence in front of goal, SJK have a fighting chance here. They’ll need to score goals though, and that means taking risks. 

Therefore – rather optimistically – I’m going to back over 2.5 goals at 9/10. 

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10. 

Dundalk vs Molde FK 

KO: 17:55  (UK time)

I really like Molde FK, and I’m genuinely delighted that they’ve made it to the group stage of at least one European competition. They can only blame themselves for it not being the UEFA Champions League, given how many gilt-edged chances they missed in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League qualifier versus Ferencvaros, but isn’t that always the case with Molde FK? They just waste too many chances, and that is a factor in my tip tonight too. 

I have no issues at all with Molde FK’s build-up play; they’re a naturally talented creative team, especially when Eikrem and Hussain are on the pitch. Those two allow Molde FK to scale new heights; heights that the others simply couldn’t reach without them. However, the problems at Molde FK remain the same as they always have. Those problems are not so prevalent in the Eliteserien (although still visible, if you watch their games) but they’re particularly evident in Europe. To put it bluntly, their problems are at both ends of the pitch; they do not take their chances regularly enough, and they cannot keep teams out. 

As I said earlier, their bugbear in their second leg draw with Ferencvaros was squandered good opportunities. Their problem against Qarabagh FK in Azerbaijan (despite ultimately progressing on penalties) was that they couldn’t handle a team that controlled the game far better than they did. Luckily for Molde FK, their Azeri hosts were particularly wasteful on the day but make no mistake; that was a game of one-way traffic in favour of the home team. Molde FK are just not the kind of team that are setup well enough to do well in Europe, I’m afraid. I’m open to being proven wrong, and this team sure as hell does not lack in determination nor belief, but they lack in effectiveness and intelligence, which is naturally a problem at this level. 

Now, Molde FK are obviously the better team here, and they’re right to be favourites. However, I think the bookies have have seriously underestimated battling Irish team Dundalk here, a team that has thrived in this competition (at this stage too) before now. Quite genuinely, I rate them as one of the hardest teams left in the UEFA Europa League to actually beat. That’s largely because they’re a very defensive team that prioritises organisation over everything else. Tactically, they’re very strong, and should not be taken lightly. They’re also a lot more effective in front of goal than they’re given credit for. 

Dundalk basically set out to stifle teams, and they’re good at it. Molde FK are predictable in their approach, and Dundalk will be able to stop it if they focus. Not just that, but Molde FK make so many errors at the back that tonight’s hosts could score a goal or two themselves. Honestly, this fixture is a dream for Dundalk – they love to be underdogs, they love to be underestimated, and they love facing teams that actively attack them. I would not write the Irish home team off here. 

To me, this game will be all about how well Molde FK break Dundalk down, and I don’t think they’re well-equipped to actually manage it. Therefore, I’m on Dundalk with a +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10. 

Verdict: Dundalk to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10. 

PSV Eindhoven vs Granada CF 

KO: 17:55  (UK time)

People are getting a bit carried away with PSV Eindhoven at the moment. I appreciate that signing Gotze, van Ginkel, and even Zahavi can be quite exciting, but you also have to examine why those players have rocked up at the Phillips Stadion. Gotze is there because he’s not played a good game of football in two years, and his head has gone. Van Ginkel has barely even been on a pitch in years, and Zahavi is an extremely temperamental player. They’re all very talented attacking midfielders, but they all come with baggage. In other words, I don’t expect this positive PSV Eindhoven phase to last. 

Personally, I’m more excited by Ihatteren and Malen, at least by Eredivisie standards. I’m not really sure either have what it takes to play at a higher level than this, although I’m sure some silly sods will chance their arm, just as AS Roma did with a massively overrated Kluivert. I will concede that this is the best squad PSV Eindhoven have had in a long time, but I would caution that by saying that that is not a hard accolade to receive because they’ve been rather poor for a while now.  

What I do like about PSV Eindhoven right now, though, is that they’ve finally found a balance. They’ve got good, experienced creators to help them break down defences, a few reasonable finishers, some of the best sitting midfielders in the country, and a powerful defence that will only improve when Baumgartl becomes a regular, not to mention a good selection of dependable shot stoppers. It’s a very positive step, assembling a squad like this. PSV Eindhoven still have some way to go before I trust them, but the early signs are encouraging. Despite the home team missing a number of attackers for tonight’s affair, I believe they can do enough to at least score against their Spanish opposition. 

I’d like to think Granada CF will take this competition seriously; they have so far, and what they do really lose by doing so? If that is indeed the case, I think they’ll trouble their Dutch hosts tonight. PSV Eindhoven are not used to dealing with intelligent teams like them. Granada CF are happy to play dirty if they need to, keep the ball for as long as they wish, and will take chances that come their way. They’re a complicated side to face; like a mini version of Getafe CF, if you like. 

The visitors are obviously far from infallible; they will concede goals if their opponents push them hard enough. It’s just hard to beat them, really. That’s what PSV Eindhoven need to find a way to achieve. Now, I’m not saying whether they will or won’t; there are too many variants for me. However, if they’re to do so, it’s going to involve taking more risks than usual, and in my experience, that means conceding more goals too. I don’t believe PSV Eindhoven can afford to simply let this game slide, and with a stronger attack than defence, I expect them to have a go here. 

That means we should be in for a good, open game, as Granada CF are happy enough being a ‘mirror’ team. They’re flexible enough to do it well and experienced enough to make a nuisance of themselves. I would not underestimate the visitors, even though their hosts have the far bigger name on the European circuit. This is a competition Granada CF can do well in, and this is the kind of game that they can excel in because they’ll have space, and they’re up against a team whose final ball and general decision-making isn’t all that good. It’ll be an interesting watch. 

For me, backing both teams to score at 9/10 makes sense here. 

Verdict: Both teams to score at 9/10. 

Rapid Vienna vs Arsenal 

KO: 17:55  (UK time)

With this one, I would wait to see the line-ups before deciding if you want to get involved or not. I’m not stupid enough to think that this is anything but a secondary competition for Arsenal, so Arteta is likely to rotate. The real question here is whether Arsenal’s “B” team is good enough to damage Rapid Vienna of Austria, and at this time, my answer to that question is a resounding, ‘yes’. 

There are a number of factors that contribute to me having that opinion. Firstly, I think Arteta has done marvellously at Arsenal, weeding out the weak/bad influences. He’s made the team play better, more modern, and more effective football, which genuinely makes players want to work harder to get into that matchday squad. I think everybody can appreciate that it’s a long road until Arsenal become a top team again, but they’re definitely on the right road to doing so for as long as they keep the Spaniard at the helm. 

Secondly, there are some first-team players here that need to play for Arsenal. For example, new midfielder Partey needs to get used to playing for his new team, and I have to believe he’ll debutise in this encounter. New Icelandic goalkeeper Runarsson may debutise too; it seems an opportune moment for such. Saliba is another that may feature. Arsenal are missing quite a lot of backup players though, so it’s inevitable that at least some first-team players will play tonight, which really should be more than enough. 

Thirdly, Arsenal no longer look overly fazed by strong work ethic or physical battles. They’re keeping the ball better than ever. They’re happy to get stuck in, pressing high, and playing for one another. Tactically, they’ve become so much stronger, even if it’s not evident in their results. They’ve become a very good team again, basically. Again, they’re not the finished article, but the signs really are very encouraging for the Londoners. 

And lastly, a colossal part of what makes Rapid Vienna so hard to face at home is their fans, of which there will be very few tonight for obvious reasons. European football has been beyond this team for quite a long time now, despite them remaining arguably Austria’s biggest club. They’ve not developed in any capacity for a long time now, hence being overtaken by Salzburg to the point where it’s not even fair to compare the two anymore. I think that LASK and Wolfsberger AC doing more than them domestically was the final straw too, because they’re playing this season like they’ve had a rocket up their arses. 

Now, at some point, boss Kuhbauer is going to take the fall at Rapid Vienna because that’s what clubs do when there are problems, and Rapid Vienna is a club laden with problems, whether it shows in their form guide or not. They’ve been this way for years now, and it stems from the management behind the scenes. This club is not competitive in Austria anymore, making strange signings and strange sales. They’ll still win matches by virtue of having the individuals to manage it, but this is not a team that can be trusted anymore, especially not after letting club legend Schwab and attacker Murg both join PAOK Salonika pre-season. 

Rapid Vienna are in this competition tonight because they were too poor to beat an AA Gent side in utter disarray after bizarrely sacking their new manager the night before the game. They still couldn’t impose themselves anywhere near well enough. I’m not reading anything into their win against Lokomotiva Zagreb prior to that either. I mean, that’s Dinamo Zagreb’s “B” team, who had been denied a lot of Dinamo Zagreb’s talented youngsters pre-season, which is rather unusual for them. That’s their only source for good players so to say that Rapid Vienna had an easy game would be an understatement – and it was still only 1-0! I like Rapid Vienna, and I hope they return to their glory days, but there are simply no signs of that happening right now.

What’s left in the home team’s squad does nothing for me, I’m afraid. It all looks very samey/predictable, and they do not look good enough to deal with a top team at UEFA Europa League level, nor even a top team’s partial “B” team. Therefore, I’ll take my chances on Arsenal beating the –1 Asian Handicap at 19/20. 

Verdict: Arsenal to beat the –1 Asian Handicap at 19/20. 

Young Boys Bern vs AS Roma 

KO: 17:55  (UK time)

I should be far more cautious than I have been here, but I just can’t help it. I’m sorry, folks, but the Young Boys Bern of four years ago is no more. That was a good European team, playing entertaining attacking football and scoring goals, troubling pretty much every team they met. This Young Boys Bern is an embarrassing version of that one, and it’s squarely boss Seoane’s fault for not doing a good enough job of replacing those that have left. 

Now, this is still the best team in Switzerland, but it’s a title that is earned more through a lack of genuine competition than anything else. Even now, they’re starting to struggle to win games because they’ve not learnt their lessons from massively over-relying on Nsame last season. I’m amazed he’s not moved on to Ligue 1 yet, but he will sooner or later, and that’s when Young Boys Bern are even more screwed because there is no alternative striker at this club. Seoane’s predecessor Hutter made a point of having two players per position because it was required. Seoane does not share that viewpoint, seemingly, because this squad is thin – and getting thinner. When Nsame goes, they’ve got nobody to put the ball in the net despite Asufah of SC Kriens in the division below doing more than enough to impress Super League teams. It’s very short-sighted of Young Boys Bern, and it will ultimately burn them, if you’ll pardon the pew. I don’t know when, but it will – I promise. 

I watched Young Boys Bern lose against FC Midtjylland in Denmark back in September, and they were a joke. They were not in that game for a single minute, constantly outfought, out-thought, and ultimately outscored. They looked like they’d never even seen FC Midtjylland before. They were lucky enough to host KF Tirana in the UEFA Europa League, who just came to Switzerland to kick them rather than play football, which afforded the home team enough opportunities to win the game. Even against Faroe Islands’ KI, Young Boys Bern seldom impressed too. They’re just a poor team now, to be frank.  

They lack in natural flair, Young Boys Bern, making it very hard for Nsame to get any kind of good support. They’ve been forced to re-sign injury-prone playmaker Sulejmani for that very reason. Aside from Ngamaleu, all of these attackers that Young Boys Bern have got only look good in the Super League – and even then, it’s only occasionally. That’s a huge problem for them because they’re an attack-minded team, one that expects to concede goals because of their adventurous nature. Their defence is truly awful, though. I’ve never seen a team make the same mistake so bloody often as these fellas do. Every single time, it’s long diagonals over the centre-backs that Young Boys Bern consistently fail to deal with, and their opponents score. A high defensive line, limited options, and a lack of a goal threat does not make for happy times for an attacking team, I’m afraid! 

Now, I know that AS Roma will view this competition as a secondary one, and will almost certainly rotate. They’ve got some players out anyway e.g. Zaniolo, Smalling, Mancini, so only some form of rotation can happen anyway. I’m not concerned though, because I know that the style of Fonseca is going to be a nightmare for Young Boys Bern to handle, no matter what selection he picks, because it’s the exact same style that FC Midtjylland used against them in Denmark I.e. high press, energetic midfielders, fast passing, good dribblers. Young Boys Bern cannot handle that right now. 

Again, I’m sure the Italians will rotate here, but they’ve got plenty of players waiting in the wings that can make a positive splash here. For example, Spanish striker Borja Mayoral, his fellow countryman Perez, Cristante, Kumbulla, Pau Lopez – they’re all just waiting for an opportunity to shine, and tonight is a good opportunity for them to do so. They take risks, AS Roma, so conceding goals is an occupational hazard for them. Unlike their hosts, however, they carry a significant attacking threat into each game, and seldom fail to find the net because of it. Therefore, even if Young Boys Bern do score – which is likely enough – I still think AS Roma can outscore them, and so convincingly. 

AS Roma look fitter, more energetic, and more convincing than their hosts right now. I don’t need their full first-team playing in order to be confident in the away win here; just a sprinkling of first-teamers should be enough. For me, the away win at evens, purely from a tactical perspective, is a steal. I’m even sorely tempted to back the visitors to bag over 3.5 goals at 8/1 because they’re good enough to do it, and their hosts do nothing for me right now – and AS Foma under Fonseca do not stop attacking at any time. 

Verdict: AS Roma to win at evens.
AS Roma to score over 3.5 goals at 8/1. 

TSG Hoffenheim vs Red Star Belgrade 

KO: 20:00  (UK time)

The German media is getting quite excited about new TSG Hoffenheim boss Hoeneb because he’s made the team work harder, more intelligently, and play more effectively. I can see where they’re coming from; they were very good at the start of the season. Since then though, they’ve reverted back to their old ways, losing at Eintracht Frankfurt, and then losing at home against Bv09 Borussia Dortmund too. Now they’ve got to find a way to overcome Serbian giants Red Star Belgrade, and I’m not really sure that they can do it. 

For starters, my perspective is that they’ll view this as a secondary competition, the Germans, and they’d be right to. Therefore, rotation is quite possible. Some rotation is inevitable, given that star attacker Kramaric, their best player for breaking teams down, one that Bayern Munich themselves are after, is out injured. Even Kaderabek’s absence in defence makes their attacking less effective, in my opinion. Whether from set pieces, or whether deployed as a full-back/wing-back, he’s a good threat, and TSG Hoffenheim are going to need everything they’ve got to break such a stubborn team down here. Without Kramaric and Kaderabek, I can see them making hard work of this game. 

They’re still right to be favourites though, TSG Hoffenheim – I agree with that much. I’ve become a big fan of attacker Bebou, for example. Not the most natural finisher, but a natural wreaker of havoc in opposing defences. Belfodil has become a bit of a donkey but is still going to win most balls in the air. Skov Olsen and Bruun Larsen are both very promising attackers of the future too, although the latter appears to have forgotten how to play football in recent times. With Grillitsch, Gacinovic, and now rapid Sessegnon in the equation, their support for their attackers has become stronger too, aided by Samassekou’s extremely underrated work as a defensive midfielder.  

However, this team still struggles to break opponents down. Now, German football as a whole is open and entertaining; that’s the nature of the beast. Therefore, you won’t find many teams lining up to face TSG Hoffenheim with the sole intent of stopping them. I happened to watch their DFB Pokal game versus part-timers Chemnitzer FC back in September though, and I saw what they were like when they had to break a stubborn defensive team down, and they were poor. Really poor, actually. They won the game on penalties in the end, but they didn’t deserve it. Chemnitzer FC looked far more comfortable than they did, and although I appreciate that rust played a part in the TSG Hoffenheim display, I also remember seeing a team that could not break opponents down well. That’s what they’re going to get here tonight – a team that will happily sit in their own half, and wait for them to make mistakes, because they do. 

TSG Hoffenheim almost never keep clean sheets, and it certainly never seems to be their intention to actually do so. Therefore, why should Red Star Belgrade take unnecessary risks here when they can simply sit back, and wait for opportunities to come? This is easily the best Red Star Belgrade side I’ve seen in years too, which helps. The players they’ve managed to bring over the past couple of years are going to make them a really tough team to beat. Having experienced Serie A target man Falcinelli up front is one hell of a booster anyway; he’s been terrific this season, unsurprisingly. Having such speed around him makes for a very harmonious attacking combination too. 

It’s more than that, though. They’ve got the legend that is Katai back, who is in terrific form, as well as Kanga coming back. Ivanic is in outstanding form, as are young Nikolic and emerging talent Gavric. The best part of this team is their defensive midfield setup though because Kanga and Sanogo are beasts, particularly the latter, who seems lost if he’s not on a yellow card! They’re horrible players to have to try and get past, and TSG Hoffenheim have to find a way without Kramaric. This Red Star Belgrade defence is very well-protected by the afore-mentioned, and the fact that they’ve got Gajic in their back four now only makes them harder to score against. Again, this is a very good Red Star Belgrade side. Good enough to get a positive result in Germany? Maybe. 

The timing of this fixture makes me think that the visitors could spring an upset here. The bookies know it though, looking at the odds, and the risk is just not worth it. If it comes down to a brutal grind, TSG Hoffenheim could nick it, making the +1 Asian Handicap option redundant. For the record, I don’t see that selection losing, but I want to give tips that I think will win, not tips that I think won’t lose, you know? By all means back the visitors if you feel bold; I do think that the scene is set for them to succeed here. However, for me, the best value bet is to back under 3 goals at 4/5 because a rotated, Kramaric-less TSG Hoffenheim should find it incredibly tough to break through this powerful, capable Red Star Belgrade side, especially with their counterattacking threat in mind, so I envision a low-scoring affair here. 

Verdict: Under 3 goals at 4/5.