TFT Issue 3245!

Darmstadt 98 vs St. Pauli  

KO: 12:00  (UK time)

This tip may be best left alone until kick-off, just as a heads-up. Part of me wants to see Seydel make his debut for Darmstadt 98 now that he’s fit because in this squad, the giant of a man can be very effective, and can definitely decide games of this nature in Darmstadt 98’s favour. Palsson has only played one game for them too, and he’s their defensive midfield beast. I need at least one of them on the pitch if this one is to stand a chance of winning – and that’s assuming that Kempe and Dursun start, of course! 

The balance of Darmstadt 98 is always very good. They know how to attack and defend as one, and few Bundesliga 2 teams have their work-rate. Their biggest weakness has always been putting the ball in the net, which is why Seydel’s arrival is not only important, but also surprising, given the way in which he dominated this division whilst on loan at Holstein Kiel. He can do a job for a team that’s pushing for promotion, let alone a middle-of-the-road Darmstadt 98. Still, it’s the home team’s gain, assuming they can get him fit, which I’m sorry to say is quite rare nowadays. 

Darmstadt 98 will be pleased to have kept hold of Dursun, though. English Championship clubs were sniffing around him before the deadline closed (Derby County were named as one of them). Hitting double figures two seasons in a row for a more defence-orientated team is impressive, I’ll give him that. He’s proving to be a good target man, Dursun. I don’t think he’ll be at the club much longer, but much like with Seydel and Palsson, it’s all to the benefit of Darmstadt 98. 

They’ve actually assembled quite the team now, today’s hosts. By no means perfect, but they’re more effective now, a bit like Greuther Furth over the past couple of seasons. They’ve still got consistent Kempe in midfield to contribute too. For this campaign, Darmstadt 98 have fused work-rate, quality, and efficiency – and I like it. There’s zero depth in this squad; if they lose any of their main men, they’re boned. They’ve not though, and I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from them this season. Bluntly put, they’ve done enough to convince me that they win this game. 

St. Pauli absolutely detest playing against Darmstadt 98; there is no team that they struggle against more. Personally, I attribute that to the work-rate of today’s hosts because they never stop grinding away on times. St. Pauli, for all of their robust nature, lack organisation in a big, big way. That, fused with their natural proclivity for injuries, makes games like today’s a complete nightmare for the Hamburg club. True enough, I do actually like the St. Pauli squad this season – well, their attack at least! They’re not near their best right now though, and won’t be for a bit yet. 

I do think St. Pauli need to be respected though, which is why I want Icelandic organiser Palsson on the pitch for the home team. The away team have assembled an attack containing Danish target man Makienok – who wins pretty much everything in the air – and powerhouse Burgstaller, who is a very good forward but only at Bundesliga 2 level; he lacks the finesse for the Bundesliga. Then there’s rapid Kyereh, who already has three goals to his name Just imagine how good they’ll be when Japanese creator Miyaichi is fit, especially if Zalazar carries on like he’s started! Without Miyaichi though, they aren’t able to pique. They’re coping well without him, admittedly, but it won’t last. They should be very concerned when it doesn’t because this defence of theirs is truly awful. 

As per usual though, they have a substantia list of absentees today. Burgstaller and Miyaichi are at the top of the list, highlighted in red. Young defender Wieckhoff, who has been a regular this season, is also out. Most others are bit-part players but in a game that St. Pauli have lost in seven out of their last eight meetings, those absentees are particularly poignant. St. Pauli will need to demonstrate a far greater level of organisation if I’m to take them seriously against this well-drilled Darmstadt 98 side – and they haven’t. 

Therefore, I’ve got to take the home win at evens. 

Verdict: Darmstadt 98 to win at evens.

Holstein Kiel vs Greuther Furth  

KO: 12:00  (UK time)

Ordinarily, then Holstein Kiel meet Greuther Furth, the outcome tends to be rather predictable. Well, I say ‘outcome’ – I mean how the game is played out. Greuther Furth are the smarter team. Tactically, they’re good, which cannot be said of Holstein Kiel. However, the home team have a stronger attack. Subsequently, this game tends to be decided by which team gets their own way, and that’s usually Greuther Furth. 

This season, though, I expect the northerners to do enough to win it. The form guide supports the selection, but that’s not my reason for backing them. I actually think that the form guide is quite misleading, which is not an uncommon occurrence, and somebody could do with telling all the Twitter tipsters that valuable nugget of information because they seem to think that history is always destined to repeat itself. No, I like Holstein Kiel here because they’re finally more effective in the final third after a couple of years of inconsistent final third play, which ironically came after a couple of years of brilliant final third play.  

Personally, I attribute that to two things; better cohesion from the likes of Meffert, Jae-sung, Muhling (because they’ve played together longer), and the arrival of experienced attacking midfielder Bartels from Werder Bremen. They’ve done so well together that Atanga’s absence has not been noteworthy, and they’ve not had to depend on any of their strikers to score goals, which is fortuitous because they’re not particularly clinical, Holstein Kiel – just very good at carving out opportunities by overloading teams with slick, fast passing. 

What I find hilarious about Holstein Kiel this season is that their record implies that they’ve got a good defence. I’ll clear that one up for you straightaway; they don’t, and they don’t even try to. That’s why they’re not bothered about dropping Serbian holding midfielder Ignjovski into defence regularly now, or why they play van den Bergh regularly at left-back. They just attack, Holstein Kiel, because it’s all they know how to do. They’ve been lucky enough to face the likes of Paderborn 07 and Fortuna Dusseldorf (both at home) at fortuitous times (e.g. Paderborn 07 without Mamba, Fortuna Dusseldorf missing half of their squad). Therefore, a dip is to be expected – just not tonight. 

The other side of this particular coin is that Greuther Furth don’t convince me as much this season. Nothing has changed on the tactical front; I still respect them as a mighty big pain in the arse to beat. It’s just that their gambles to replace Keita-Ruel haven’t paid off. That’s not to say that they won’t pay off. For now though, they haven’t, and you could argue that they’ve earned their misfortune really. I mean, bringing in Berggreen? Really? Nobody doubts his pedigree at this level, but when was he last actually fit – six years ago? Unsurprisingly, he’s still out now. It’s Nigerian newbie Abiama that has had to step in and he’s not there yet.  

Now, to understand why Keita-Ruel was important, you need to watch the Greuther Furth games from last season. This is a tactical team, like I said. They’re good at counterattacking. Keita-Ruel, despite not being a particularly clinical finisher, was fast, strong, and good at bringing others into play. It’s because of him that Hrgota and Nielsen weren’t isolated, and because of him that there wasn’t too much of a burden on Green. Without the Frenchman, there’s too big of a gap between midfield and attack that only Green can regularly breach. Sarpei hasn’t really warmed to it, and Seguin hasn’t progressed enough. Subsequently, Greuther Furth are lacking, and a tactical team can ill-afford to have weaknesses because they’re not equipped to with good enough individuals to get by without their tactical shield. 

They’re still a bitch to break down though, especially whilst Mavraj is on the pitch. This won’t be an easy game for Holstein Kiel; that much I can promise you. However, I’m struggling to envision Greuther Furth coping with the Holstein Kiel attack when their counters aren’t as effective as they need to be. That’s how you stop Holstein Kiel – you hurt them more than they hurt you. For the first time in a while, I’m not sure that Greuther Furth are equipped to do that here. 

Therefore, I’m on Holstein Kiel to win at evens. 

Verdict: Holstein Kiel to win at evens. 

MTK Budapest vs Varda SE  

KO: 13:45  (UK time)

Since returning to the topflight of Hungarian football, MTK Budapest have played very well. It’s seldom gone their way, to be fair, but they’re applying themselves marvellously with their high press, and they’re causing problems for teams. Of course, if they come across a good team, or they don’t put as much effort in, they get beat. That’s the downside to the capital club’s tactical approach. However, on the back of a very strong win against a superior Puskas FC, I have to believe that MTK Budapest will do what is necessary here. 

I think it’s a good time to face Varda SE, who were getting a bit carried away with themselves are managing to beat vulnerable teams away from home with alarming regularity. Remember that they lost star attacker Grozav in the middle of last season. All they’ve done is to bring experienced boss Supka in, and it’s hard to believe he’ll be at Varda SE for long, given Revesz’s penchant for yes men. Supka’s not exactly behind the door either, so you can guess the almost inevitable outcome! 

For now, Varda SE are ok though. They’ve put together a reasonable enough attack that has done well, all things considered. Not only Grozav left, but Tischler (great striker at this level that was never afforded enough opportunities because he wasn’t from abroad) too, and with Gosztonyi still injured, Varda SE were expected to struggle more than they have. Lucas has been brilliant though, which always helps Varda SE to perform well, and both Viana and Navratil have found the back of the net. Romanian winger Bumba has impressed me the most though. This is not a bad team. 

However, I think that their luck will run out in the capital today. They’re up against a team that works harder than Ujpest, and carries a more significant attacking threat than Mezokovesd-Zsory this season. They may well score in this game, Varda SE, given how well they’ve managed to hurt teams of late. After their bringing back down to earth by Ferencvaros last time out though, I’m not so sure they’ll be as confident here. This is still a very under-strength team, and it won’t take much to shatter their momentum. I believe the high press of MTK Budapest will further unsettle them today.

MTK Budapest fans are exciting with their club’s situation, and so they should be. Would it be fair to say that they’ve got the best academy in Hungary, I wonder? It’s certainly the most consistent. They love homegrown talent at MTK Budapest, and they’ve got some this season with former AFC Ajax Amsterdam boy Schon, for example, who is one hell of a talented dribbler. With him and Gera, MTK Budapest find it very easy to break teams down, and they’ll be even better if they can utilise Lencse more. This squad is always close-knit and hard-working because they all come from the same place, and they all want the same thing. For all of their weaknesses, MTK Budapest are essential to Hungarian football, and their return to the highest division is a welcome one. Their project is exciting, too – keep an eye on them in years to come. 

Of course, all young teams need a few old heads, and MTK Budapest have got some. Lencse is one, who I mentioned, club legend Kanta is another, and Pinter is a third. It could be argued that MTK Budapest’s form is as patchy as it is because they’ve not used two of those leaders, and scarcely used the other. Sometimes they just reigning in a bit, and they’d do that. Still, I thought that they were extremely mature in their win against Puskas FC, having finally struck a balance between defending and attacking – to an extent – and Kanta was on the bench then so he is an option now. 

I like where MTK Budapest are at though. Their performances have been more authentic than Varda SE’s; they’ve benefited from their own merit, not the misfortunes of other teams, unlike today’s opponents. I believe that’ll prove to be the case on the pitch too. The bookies are right to make MTK Budapest favourites here, but pleasingly the form guide of the capital club has dissuaded them from providing what I class as ‘true’ odds here. Therefore, I find value in backing the home win at 21/20. 

Verdict: MTK Budapest to win at 21/20. 

Djurgarden vs Sirius 

KO: 14:00  (UK time)

Sirius have had a really good campaign, haven’t they? It’s been lovely to see. They’ve been a breath of fresh air, especially when nothing was expected of them. The fact that they’ve done it without proven Allsvenskan poacher Igboananike is even more impressive, really. Sugita has been a revelation this season, as has Vecchia. Netabay has adjusted to this level wonderfully well, Andersson has been in marvellous form, and Saied has been the driving force behind everything positive that this club has done. Tactically, they’ve been smart under Rydstrom, who has done his reputation no harm whatsoever, and they seldom look out of their depth. What’s not to like?

Sirius are in a good place mentally too. Remember that nothing’s expected of them so there’s no pressure in their surprise push for European football. They get to play each game as underdogs, trying to find different ways to outsmart team, and usually succeeding. There are a lot of good teams in the Allsvenskan, and a lot is expected of them. When you’ve got, what – eight teams? – realistically thinking they can get one of the three European spots (well, we’ll overlook the lesser UEFA competition coming in next season!), this get fiercely competitive. Tensions rise, and some players make strange calls. The bigger/better teams find it harder, basically – but Sirius can do as they please.

So why oppose them today? Well, you have to understand how this team came to be in the Allsvenskan to begin with. They were promoted twice by the same managerial team, and performed so well in the Allsvenskan that that duo was poached after just one season. Guess where they went to? Yes, that’s right – Stockholm! They went where the money is! Bloody hard job though, restoring a fallen giant. They did it so well last season that their team actually won the title, though. Considering that they were up against a superior, richer, bigger Malmo FF along the way, as well as bitter rivals like Hammarby, they did brilliantly.

I’m talking about today’s hosts Djurgarden, of course. Yes, mighty Djurgarden. It’s not been a great season for them, compared to the one before, but believe me when I say that this is the healthiest they’ve been in years. They’re working harder, playing more efficiently, and showing pride. This has become a very stable, consistent, and frankly dangerous team which has overcome obstacles such as Ajdarevic’s absence for four weeks in August/July. Why the change? Because of their managerial duo, of course – Bergstrand and Lagerlof! Yes, the very same two men that took Sirius up the two divisions.

Anyone else reckon that they know precisely how to beat Sirius, or is it just me? See, I watched the reversal of this fixture, and Djurgarden played them like a fiddle. That win was purely borne out of the managerial duo of Djurgarden knowing their old team very well. Djurgarden didn’t dominate. They didn’t batter their opponents. Do you know what they did? I’ll tell you; they sat off Sirius, letting them run out of energy, making their high pressing game far less effective. Djurgarden knew that Sirius would make defensive errors, and so it proved when Berg’s glancing header found the back of the net after goalkeeper Jonsson misjudged a cross.

See, Sirius score most of their goals by overloading teams, not by being ruthless finishers. There have been exceptions to the rule this season, but that’s the reality. Djurgarden knew that from the start so they sat back, let them huff and puff, and watched them squander the few good chances they created. Djurgarden did that until the sixty minute mark, knowing that Sirius would tire. Then Djurgarden brought Chilufya into the game more down the left, which Sirius had no answer to. Djurgarden then started to control the game. On came Barkroth for Chilufya, a far better finisher, and he played through the middle off the shoulder of the last man. Then Djurgarden got their second; Radetinac’s miscued shot finding an unmarked Pettersson on the break, and boom – game over. In a hot temperature, Djurgarden were the smarter team, and they should be the smarter team again here because they’ve got two men in charge that know both teams inside out by now.

When I tipped Djurgarden to win that game by two goals or more (-1 Asian Handicap), the odds were about evens. Now I can get 83/100 just on the outright win, and nothing has changed during that time other than form. For me, backing Djurgarden to win this game simply makes sense. Sirius are going to have to do something very unexpected to fool their old bosses here.

Verdict: Djurgarden to win at 83/100. 

Paksi SE vs Budapest Honved 

KO: 16:00  (UK time)

There’s a reason that Paksi SE are getting backed in against Budapest Honved, and it’s becoming quite the common theme nowadays, sadly – Covid-19. More and more games are getting postponed, and more players are missing matches through positive tests. In this instance, it’s Budapest Honved who are the victims. They’re without five players for this game – N. Balogh, Batik, Traore, Gazdag, and Ugrai. All five of them are massively important players for Budapest Honved. 

Hopes were high at Budapest Honved this season after they were purchased by a ‘consortium’ (basically a politician that supports the team, namely the Hungarian Minister Of Foreign Affairs). In came Varda SE boss Bodog, who did a very good job in the previous season, all things considered. Zsoter’s return ‘home’, Gazdag and Hidi joining – everything was going ever so swimmingly for the capital club. As is always the case with Budapest Honved though, it all went to shit rather quickly. Italian attacker Lanzafame left, their defence has fallen apart, and now they’ve got Covid-19 in the camp. Not a good time to be at this club. Is there ever? 

At least they’ve got big Norbert Balogh up top, though. A target man too good for this level. If he were playing here, I would be more concerned – but he’s not. The focal point of their attack is out, as are most of his attacking accomplices like Traore and Ugrai. Gazdag has naturally ran the show since his signing, and he’s out too. Batik in defence is the other that is out. Therefore, this team now has no attack, a shocking defence, and limited mental strength. It’s hard to be positive about their chances today. 

Last season? Perhaps. Paksi SE were particularly back then. They were lucky to stay up, to be honest. Paksi SE were still unhappy though, and changed every important element of the team. Now Bognar is in charge rather than Osztermayer, who has spent a lot of time as a pundit on Hungarian TV. It’s fair to say that he’s the Hungarian version of Tim Sherwood, really – full of shit, but will motivated a hard-working team to do well for a short period of time, and that’s been what has happened at Paksi SE this season.  

Things are more positive at Paksi SE this season. They’ve regained their old ‘Crazy Gang’ feel, scoring goals at will, especially through Hahn, who miraculously has four in six now. Club legend Bode, an attacker by trade, has found more joy playing in defence of late, a role which he’s taken to surprisingly well! In came Bognar, Hegedus, and Adam – all Hungarians, of course. The reason Paksi SE are as close-knit a group as they are is because they only sign Hungarian players. They’ve got some good, experienced heads in their squad now, and more firepower than they’ve had in twelve months or so. It’ll be interesting to see how young striker Szendrei does, who is supposed to have a very good future ahead of him. 

You could argue that their fixture list has been favourable, and I would go with that. However, what’s more important to me is that Paksi SE have retained their sense of belief. They’re battling like they used to, scoring goals like they used to, and generally making a royal nuisance of themselves. That, fused with the depressing Covid-19 situation of Budapest Honved, makes it very likely that this game will end in a home win. 

Verdict: Paksi SE to win at evens. 

BB Erzurumspor vs Galatasaray 

KO: 17:00  (UK time)

I’ve liked what I’ve seen from newly-promoted BB Erzurumspor this season. They’ve been intelligent, both with their signings and their tactics. They recognise that they’re not as good as most Super Lig teams so instead try to play their weaknesses. BB Erzurumspor let their opponents have the ball, and focus solely on counterattacking. That approach has led them to victories in Kayseri and Ankara already this season. Not tidy victories, per se, but victories nonetheless. This is not a team to take lightly. Not one that will achieve too much, true enough, but one that can avoid relegation from the Super Lig. 

Their signings were good pre-season, as I said. Karakullukcu is still out, but with Sadiku still to come in (who is a better finisher), it’s not a problem. They’ve also got new signing Gomes to call upon, who is a really good striker. With the raw pace of Muhammed in mind, BB Erzurumspor seldom struggle to make chances, whether by their own merit on the training pitch, or whether by forcing opponents’ mistakes. Novikovas has been absolutely superb this season, and the quality of Donald and Obertan cannot be overlooked either. This is a very fast and physically strong team, one that can never be entirely nullified whilst their opponents leave gaps at the back. They won’t keep many teams out, but they’ll score goals this season. 

However, the problem they’re up against today is that Galatasaray don’t really play like other Super Lig teams anymore. It’ll only be for as long as this Fatih Terim whim lasts, but for the present, the Turkish giants are playing a more controlling game. They’ve significantly reduced their capacity to hurt teams with direct play and raw speed, but have increased their capacity to keep the ball, and play through teams. They’re not perfect, and I still find a level of mental weakness in this team that concerns me. However, the quality is there, and as long as there are no more stupid red cards like there was against Alanyaspor, they should do well today. 

The absence of Feghouli is not ideal, but this is by no means a one-man band. Colombian poacher Falcao is in great form, and that’s very important because he’s been a bit hit-and-miss since moving to Turkey. With Babel and Turan on either side, and Belhanda and Kilinc creating, there’s enough scope to believe that Galatasaray will penetrate the BB Erzurumspor defence today. If they can do that, they’ll score, and they should do enough to win. No, I don’t entirely trust Galatasaray, especially not when Muslera is injured and they lack an organiser in defence. However, this should be a game that they can control without too many issues, and if they do, they should win it because their hosts only know counterattacking, and they should be denied that luxury.

Therefore, I’m on the away win at 4/5. 

Verdict: Galatasaray to win at 4/5. 

Brondby vs FC Midtjylland 

KO: 17:00  (UK time)

I’m rather curious to see what develops in today’s Danish Superligaen offering. I still maintain that FC Midtjylland should be too good for Brondby. However, after getting their arses handed to them by Atalanta Bergamo mid-week, in which they expended a lot of energy, facing sleeping giants Brondby away from home is probably a rather unwelcome fixture, especially as the Zealand club have played deceptively well of late. 

The frustrating thing about Brondby is that they’re always teetering on the brink of being a good team again, only to fall down. They’ve clocked up some really impressive results so far this season, albeit with a touch of luck here and there. Their luck ran out against SonderjyskE last time out, although I would not want anybody to panic about that, given the money that SonderjyskE have come into this season, hence the acquisition of players like Nigerian midfielder Onazi. It was still expected that they’d trouble SonderjyskE more than they did, but all teams have off-days, and that was one of Brondby’s.  

I do like what I’ve seen from Brondby this season though. It’s been pleasant to watch, and they’re actually back to converting their chances again. Gutted though their fans were to see former star Polish striker Wilczek join bitter rivals FC Copenhagen pre-season, Brondby, they’ve got to be pleased as to what they’ve seen so far this season. Despite losing most of their star creators over the past few years, Brondby have become a surprisingly strong team once more. Even their financial situation has improved. I think everybody really does want Red Bull to buy them, as they keep threatening to, but there’s no sign of that transpiring yet. 

For now though, Brondby look good, at least in the final third. Having Mensah back fit again is helpful because he’s a very mobile attacking threat. It’s more than that, though. Hedlund has been superb this season, as has Radosevic, who has really helped restore a proper balance to the middle of the park. However, it’s far more impressive than just those two. Brondby have relied a lot on academy players, or Danes from other clubs, and are thriving because of it. They’ve taken a leaf out of FC Nordsjaelland’s book without being too suicidal at the back, although my heart is certainly in my mouth when I see Maxso lining up for them because that’s where he was raised too!  

Brondby actually try to work on their weaknesses though, and I like that. They’re playing more basic but effective football, focusing on getting the ball wide in order to put crosses into the box for big Uhre. Lindstram and Frendrup, the two young midfielders, have been superb this season, and the whole team has helped out in attack really. I still don’t trust them at the back, even after the arrival of promising Paraguayan defender from FC Basel. They make too many mistakes in that area, and are too keen to send men forward. Still, that’s how Brondby should play, and conceding goals is simply an occupational hazard for the top teams. Given how they’ve played under Frederiksen so far this season, Brondby should be taken seriously. They’re conceding, but they’re scoring a lot too, and they won’t fear FC Midtjylland whilst they’re playing like this. 

FC Midtjylland are still the better team though – that’s why I won’t back the home team here. They’ll be tired, for sure, but they’ve got a lot of stamina, and a reasonable amount of depth nowadays. They’re not in Europe because they’re a top club, FC Midtjylland. They’re there because they work consistently hard in their matches, and I don’t see today’s trip to the Brondby Stadion being any different. Whether that’s enough to get them a positive result or not, I don’t know at this stage, but it’s enough to give them a good chance. 

FC Midtjylland’s high press, their fast forwards, and their confidence makes me think we’ll know a lot more about Brondby after this game. I’m not trying to piss on their chips here, but their derby win at FC Copenhagen came as it was a really good time to face their local rivals, and other than that they’ve had straightforward matches. This is not a straightforward match, however. In this game, the home team need to figure out how to contain any combination of Sisto, Anderson, Mabil, Dreyer, Evander, Vibe, Schwartz etc. – and they can’t. Still, they’re capable of wounding their opponents today, and that’s all I am really interested in from them today. Containing Brondby looks a bit beyond them right now though, even with Hoegh in their defence. 

The above leads me to believe that backing over 2.5 goals makes sense here, especially at good odds of 4/5. 

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5. 

FK Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow

KO: 17:00  (UK time)

Initially, I was set to back goals here. Naturally attack-minded FK Krasnodar hosting this impressive Spartak Moscow side should surely produce such! However, the team news puts me off that happening here. 

I’m sure FK Krasnodar are delighted to be in the UEFA Champions League group stage, and so they should be. It’s been a real feather in their caps for what they’ve achieved in Russian football as a whole over the past five years or so. They’ve thoroughly deserved their success, and a draw in France mid-week against Stade Rennais was a great result for them after a good display. This is not a team to take lightly; I cannot reiterate that enough. They play excellent football, and seem to know no fear.  

Having said that though, FK Krasnodar are going to find the next two months or so tough. Really tough, actually, because UEFA has made it so their competition’s matches are played every three days instead of having a break every now and then. FK Krasnodar are not used to that. They’ve not long been home for France, and they’ve not only got to think about Spartak Moscow today, but hosting Chelsea next week too! It’s just too much, and it’s going to take its toll on the team. Perhaps not today, or even the week after, but it’ll come – and they won’t be the only ones, either. I understand the concept of what UEFA have done, but it’s especially gruelling for teams like FK Krasnodar. 

The ramifications of their trip to France are not just fatigue-related, either. Playmaker Remy Cabella picked up an injury in that game, you see. On its own, that might not be the end of the world. However, you have to also keep in mind that club legend Ari is still injured, and that Brazilian/Belgian winger Wanderson is still injured too. That’s three of their most consistent match-winners out of this match. I respect Claesson, Vihena, and Suleymanov a lot; they’re going to cause most Russian teams problems. However, Berg’s service is going to be really limited without that trio, and he’s not the kind of striker to engineer chances by himself. With FK Krasnodar virtually incapable of keeping clean sheets, I fear for them today – and logically so. 

Spartak Moscow have impressed me this season, enough so to overlook their mid-week Cup defeat against Yenisey. Tedesco, having actually been given time to do it, has made them into a good team. Spartak Moscow are finally beginning to understand the benefits of players and managers working together for lengthy periods of time. They’re not the finished article, Spartak Moscow, but they look a hell of a lot better now than they have for about fifteen years. It’s good to see them on the road to recovery. I’m sure they’ll inevitably do something stupid to fuck it up, such is their nature, but for now I’m taking them seriously. 

What I like about what Tedesco has done is that he’s brought in the right players to make a team. Not just overpaid foreigners to carry them, or spending money for the sake of it. No, he’s brought in good players who have done solid jobs. He’s also gotten more out of the players that were already there. Spartak Moscow always had a good academy, not that you would know it from their squads over the past few years. Tedesco is reintroducing youth to their first-team, and that’s helping the squad as a whole play for pride, which is again something that has been missing for years. 

Now he’s got the perfect blend of Russian youngsters and motivated, capable foreigners, the cherry on the cake being the recent arrival of Victor Moses, who is way too good a creator for this level. I’m so confident with this team now that even the absence of in-form Argentinian attacker Ponce and target man Sobolev won’t put me off here. Spartak Moscow did not have a trip abroad mid-week so they’re fresher than their hosts. They’ve got their best finisher, Kokorin, back, as well as a rapidly maturing Larsson to call upon. Even Uzbek wonderkid Urunov may feature here, having mostly recovered from injury. There’s a lot to like about this Spartak Moscow setup, especially with Brazilian full-back Ayrton in the form of his life. They’re playing with balls and belief now, Spartak Moscow, and they’re working harder than ever. For the first time in as many years as I can recall, I feel confident that Spartak Moscow will not lose against FK Krasnodar. 

Given the circumstances of this fixture, not to mention the absentees, I have to believe that backing the sleeping giants of Russian football to win this game with draw no bet cover is a good value pick. 

Verdict: Spartak Moscow to win with draw no bet at 9/10. 

Istanbul BB vs Antalyaspor 

KO: 17:00  (UK time)

Despite an impressive display in Trabzon last weekend, I’m still not happy with where Istanbul BB are at. They were easily beaten in Germany mid-week by RB Leipzig, which is hardly a damning result, but it’s one of a long list of games in which they’ve done that this season. They’ve looked short of fitness, and short of preparation, which is really most unlike them. They’ve been the most slick, consistent, and professional team in the country for a few years now, so to see Okan’s men falling apart like they have has been puzzling, to say the least. It’s not like they’re a big club, prone to typical ‘big club complacency’. It’s very bizarre. Anyway, I’m sure they’ll bounce back in due course. 

Will it be today? I’m not sold on that idea. They had a tough trip to Germany mid-week, as I said, and they had to chase shadows in the game too, which isn’t ideal for quite an old team. Now they’ve got to decide whether to focus on Antalyaspor today, or on hosting Paris Saint-Germain four days from now. I think I know which one it’s more likely to be! With all due respect to Antalyaspor, this game won’t decide Istanbul BB’s season, and nor will it be in their history books. However, felling mighty moneybags Paris Saint-Germain would be, and would also bring a significant cash reward too. Therefore, I’m inclined to believe that Okan’s men will be rotated today, and although they’ve got quite a deep squad, Istanbul BB, I would not class a rotated squad as being worth the short odds they’ve been given against a good Antalyaspor side. 

The away team have been preparing for this fixture for a week now. They know how hard it is to get a result against Istanbul BB; I’ve lost count of how many times they’ve failed to do so! Still, the Antalyaspor of this season is very impressive. They’ve assembled a surprisingly good squad into this campaign, scoring goals at will, and controlling games far better than they’ve been given credit for. They’ve not won games as often as they should have, all things considered, but they’ve been extremely hard to beat. I suspect they’re going to give a good account of themselves in Istanbul today too. 

Although none of them have bagged, how impressive is it that they have Orgill, Jahovic, and Podolski in attack? Three brilliant attackers, all of which know the Super Lig well. Amnilton has done well too, to be fair to him. The absence of Fredy and Sam today makes me not want to back an away win because they’re two of Antalyaspor’s better creators. They’ve still got Sahin and Ozmert to call upon though, which is enough for me in a game where they’re expected to be under the cosh. With Naldo now organising their back four, Antalyaspor continue to go from strength to strength. This is a good team, capable of unsettling Istanbul BB on their day, and they won’t find a better time to play them than now. 

Therefore, I’m going to boldly back the visitors to end their Istanbul BB hoodoo here at generous odds of 5/4.

Verdict: Antalyaspor to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 5/4. 

Grasshopper Zurich vs FC Schaffhausen 

KO: 18:00  (UK time)

Just when I think that Grasshopper Zurich are getting their shit together, they suddenly get blitzed by a bang average SC Kriens (who have one good player!) after losing against a completely changed Neuchatel Xamax in the preceding match. Are they really going to bottle things again? So soon in the season? Time will tell. 

To be fair, it’s still early season, and the tactics of new boss Pereira are very different to what you’ll normally find at this level. He wants his team to play patiently and with more control, which is possible for a top team like Grasshopper Zurich, but other teams have started to find ways to stop them doing it. With so many new faces in their squad, opponents have started to boot them more, harass them more, and play more directly, which has really started to upset the promotion hopefuls. They’ve still got one of the best squads in the division, Grasshopper Zurich, but they’re not playing well enough to win games at this precise moment in time, let alone be priced as short as they are to win tonight. To think that’s the case after losing against two teams that are both inferior to FC Schaffhausen! 

There’s an awful lot I like about this Grasshopper Zurich squad, but integrating all of their new faces as well as a new style is starting to cause issues. I’m confident that they’ll overcome them in due course, but for the present time, this is no longer a team I can trust to do what they’re so evidently capable of. They’ve taken risks this season, Grasshopper Zurich, and although the conclusion of such is still indetermined, they’re not paying off right now. That makes it a good time to oppose them, in my opinion. 

I’d be hesitant about handicapping them against any team but Chiasso at this level. For them to be priced as short as this against a seriously good FC Schaffhausen side who will absolutely be in the promotion race this season, is madness. That’s even truer when you consider that Yakin is manager of the away team, who still has an axe to grind with Grasshopper Zurich. His team have been playing really well this season, for the most part. His newcomers have bedded in really well, mostly because the majority of them know Swiss football already. They look fast, creative, and extremely confident.  

I watched their 2-2 draw against Winterthur recently and I was impressed. No, I don’t think they deserved to win the game, but I thought that they held their own against a very good team. Despite the dangers of being countered, they still attacked with purpose and belief, and deserved the late equaliser that they got. The defeat against Aarau last time out was mostly borne out of defender Padula’s early red card. Even then, I still thought they were better than Aarau but that doesn’t mean shit unless you can prove it with a result – and they didn’t. Still, both displays were good, and if they can play like both of those displays today, they won’t lose.

On top of all of the above, FC Schaffhausen boss Yakin knows this opposing team really well, and not just from his time in charge there. No, he was responsible for Kosovan striker Demhasaj’s best season to date, which was with FC Schaffhausen. Target man Ze Turbo was a Yakin player last season too. The advantage is with the visitors really, even if we ignore the demoralised displays of Grasshopper Zurich recently. Therefore, I’m struggling to accept the short odds on the home win here, hence my tip below. 

Verdict: FC Schaffhausen to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 5/4. 

Atletico Mineiro vs Sport Recife 

KO: 01:00  (UK time)

Well, that was an unpleasant surprise, wasn’t it? I’ve not seen Atletico Mineiro throw their concentration away like they did against Bahia last time out. They can make defensive errors sometimes, it’s true, but this was different. I didn’t like what I saw, and it’s the first time I can say that about Sampaoli’s team this season. I’m sure it won’t last, hence tonight’s tip, but that defeat in Bahia was particularly unpleasant to witness. 

Fortunately, tonight’s game contains a lot of elements that Atletico Mineiro like. Sport Recife won’t just sit back against them, for example – they will have a go, even if it does leave them exposed. Atletico Mineiro are far better against teams that leave space like the visitors do. They’ve actually had a breather mid-week, which again, enhances how well the Belo Horizonte club performs. They’re at home, where they’re almost always very good. On top of that, they’ve got all of their players back from breaks etc. other than long-term absentee Diego Tardelli. 

All we need from the home team here is the focus that has been there for the majority of their campaign because if it is, they’ll win this game easily enough. I like Sport Recife, in a weird sort of way, but this type of opponent is simply beyond them. Now, a quality gap in Brazil’s Serie A may not be anything unusual, but it’s how it’s used that makes the difference, I’ve found. For example, Corinthians have been better than most Brazilian clubs for quite some time now – but it seldom shows on the pitch because of their dour tactics.  

Pleasingly, Atletico Mineiro are playing to their potential, for the most part. Perhaps not as much as they should have against Bahia, but in general they’ve been a real breath of fresh air in Serie A this season. They’ve moved the ball fast, they’ve not hesitated in sending men forward, and they’ve been intelligent in the final third. They’ve got a lot of naturally fast, creative players, and they’re very good in front of goal. On the break or on the offensive in general, Atletico Mineiro are very impressive. They look fit too; really fit, actually. Dealing with them – despite their shoddy defence – is a nightmare. 

Can Sport Recife contain them? Absolutely not. At home, perhaps – their pitch is unbelievably tough to play on – but not away. No Serie A team has lost more than Sport Recife away from home this season, although a few are level-pegging. Sport Recife are not a very good team in the sense that they only have one top-drawer player, which is veteran playmaker Thiago Neves. Well, Hernane is good too, to be fair, but Neves is still the daddy. Most of what Sport Recife does relies upon work-rate and togetherness. That works quite well for them in an attacking sense, but in defence they just look lost, particularly away from home. 

When it comes to energy, and to playing with belief, Sport Recife are just peachy. They’re very much accustomed to avoiding relegation nowadays, which involves prioritising their home fixtures. Their away day displays tend to be remarkably similar; have a go, squander good chances, and concede way more than they score. Not a particularly handy habit in general, let alone when facing one of the best teams in Brazil away from home. That’s what Sport Recife are going to do here though. 

I won’t deny that Sport Recife have the capacity to score in this match, but they’re going to get overrun in midfield, and Atletico Mineiro are going to make it look very easy because of how frequently Sport Recife play an attacking style on the road. It’s bold, and I love their confidence, but it’s never going to work against a ruthless Atletico Mineiro side away from home. Famous last words or not, Atletico Mineiro should not struggle to win this fixture. 

Therefore, I’m on the home team to beat the –1.5 Asian Handicap at 93/100. 

Verdict: Atletico Mineiro to beat the –1.5 Asian Handicap at 93/100.