TFT Issue 3246!

AC Horsens vs FC Nordsjaelland 

KO: 13:00  (UK time)

Before getting involved with FC Nordsjaelland, it’s important that you walk into their games with your eyes well and truly open. This is not a team that you can ever trust to hold a lead. They’re pure heart attack material, and have been for years. All they do is attack, and with a very young squad too. Most of their games will easily go over 2.5 goals, and this one probably will too.

However, at odds of 9/10, I want to get involved here. They’re simply a far more intimidating team than their hosts; that’s the reality of the matter. FC Nordsjaelland are beautifully naïve because of the number of kids in their squad, but they’re also frequently underestimated for it. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t have classed this team as having a good academy but considering that they’ve now produced boatloads of youngsters from it with alarming consistency, I’m beginning to wonder if I have to change my mind on that subject matter. I’m still not convinced it’s been done deliberately; FC Nordsjaelland constantly have a poor financial situation so they’re forced to rely on their academy graduates. However, they’ve stumbled across an absolute gold mine because they never seem to run out of these talented lads!

This season, it’s yet another Ghanaian that is making the headlines – attacker Sulemana. They’ve also found a very capable Ivorian in Diomande. They’ve still got Atanga and Francis from last season to keep their African contingent thriving, and these fellas all provide FC Nordsjaelland with extraordinary energy levels and athleticism. I would include Sadiq too, but I honestly don’t know where he’s disappeared to. Essentially, this team was created to be fast, to press teams, and to force goals from one place or another. Good tactical teams won’t struggle to contain them too much, but fortunately for FC Nordsjaelland, that type of team is hard to come across in the Superligaen. Other than that, dealing with them is a nightmare, which is why they score as many as they do. It’s prudent to pay this team a lot of respect!

What I love about FC Nordsjaelland – aside from their old-fashioned approach to playing football – is that they’ve clearly got a lot of [players that enjoy themselves in their squad. They all play with smiles on their faces, and they want to impress. Also, they’ve just signed Djourou because they didn’t think that their shambolic defence was bad enough already, and if that’s not worth a laugh, I’m not sure what it is. They’re playing well though, FC Nordsjaelland, and that’s enough for me right now.

Besides, AC Horsens did something very stupid in August that is going to get them relegated this season, in my opinion. They sacked boss Henriksen. Now, you have to appreciate that this team has been one of the worst in the Superligaen for a long time now, and that the only thing stopping them from going down was Henriksen’s unrivalled ability to motivate his players. Despite having severely limited options, I’d argue that AC Horsens have gotten more from their squad than any other Danish team over the past few years because this squad would struggle in the division below, never mind the Superligaen. Henriksen made them into fighters, and even when it didn’t work out on the pitch, they’d always have enough to bounce back with.

AC Horsens sacked him though, replacing him with Dal of Fredericia. I’ve no idea what they hope that’ll achieve, and I’ve seen nothing lately to suggest that AC Horsens are suddenly going to push for a European place, so what the point was, I don’t know. Other than in Faroese creator Hansson and fellow midfielder Andreasen, this is still a very poor team. An under-strength one today, too – key defender Lumb, and midfield regular Jacobsen are both on the sidelines here. Okosun left pre-season too, so all this team can now do is lump the ball forward to their big target men.

AC Horsens’ work-rate remains a factor; they’re still annoying to beat. FC Nordsjaelland are never short of running though, so I don’t envision it being too telling here. FC Nordsjaelland don’t usually struggle to outscore AC Horsens, and with the above circumstances in mind, I can’t see today’s affair being any different.

Verdict: FC Nordsjaelland to win at 9/10. 

FK Rostov vs FK Khimki 

KO: 13:30  (UK time)

I keep watching FK Rostov, wondering when they’re going to get their shit together and start winning games with some consistency. It’s still never happened this season, and I’m scratching my head as to why. Karpin has never had a better FK Rostov to manage than this, and yet they struggle to control games far too often for my liking.

Now, they made a killing on selling Uzbek striker Shomurodov to Genoa in September, at least – he hadn’t even scored this season after a marvellous breakthrough campaign last season. Losing him, Ionov, Zainutdinov, and Chernov within a couple of months was always going to hurt them, to be fair to Karpin. They’ve been forced to make changes, and I think they’ve done rather well, as it goes. New Japanese midfielder Hashimoto has been one of the success stories of Russian football this season, playing alongside proven class acts like Mamaev and Eremenko. They brought Poloz home in anticipation of Shomurodov’s departure, which was a smart move – he loves FK Rostov!

It’s their more recent transfer business that has captured my attention though, poaching two Swedes – Gigovic and Almqvist – from Helsingborg and IFK Norrkoping respectively, both of which have impressed in Sweden this season. I’m more convinced by Gigovic than Almqvist but both have potential, and FK Rostov have got ahead of the game to sign them both, especially with Gigovic, who Genoa were sniffing around for a long time. They also brought in rough Obukhov, who has scored goals at this level before, just in case Almqvist does have any problems adjusting. Young Lokomotiv Moscow midfielder Tugarev arrives with plenty of potential too, and adventurous Norwegian full-back Aleesami can only help them in their quest to score more goals.

So, yeah – lots of changes at FK Rostov, which means I can forgive Karpin the team’s inconsistent form. In the meantime though, FK Rostov are both scoring and conceding a lot. Their defence looks a joke but their attack looks dangerous. Which way their games go is a complete coin toss, really, especially as they’re still trying to integrate new defenders Pavlovets and Terentjev. Still, they’re having fun whilst doing so, and they’re not short of chances to score, so I have to believe that they’ll at least score today.

Credit must go to minnows FK Khimki though. They recognised their own weaknesses earlier in the season, and have taken good steps to sort them out. It’s all well and good, playing well for one Russian Cup Final against Zenit St. Petersburg, but at Premier League level, every game for them is a Cup Final. That’s been a harsh lesson for them to learn, and it’s one they’ve shipped a lot of goals in learning. FK Khimki don’t play badly, for the record – few teams at this level battle as much as they do. They’ve definitely been studying the, ‘How To Stay In the Premier League’ guide by Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast and FK Ufa!

Still, I like what they’ve done lately to give themselves a decent shot of staying up. Well, I say ‘lately’ but Glushakov arrived nearly a month ago now, and he’s a brilliant goal-scoring midfielder at this level with tremendous experience. Winger Mirzov joined from Spartak Moscow whilst Mogilevets joined from Rubin Kazan, both of which are good midfielders at this level, particularly the former. That wasn’t all, either – Logashov and Dolgov both joined from FK Rostov, which are a defender and forward respectively. FK Khimki have certainly done all that they can to try and stay up this season; time will tell if it’s enough or not.

The problem with the latter two acquisitions are that neither can play against their parent club. I thought Logashov did well on his debut, and that he’ll be missed here, even after one game. They’re bad at the back, FK Khimki, primarily because they’re used to seeing a lot of the ball, something that doesn’t happen as much at this level as it did in the division below. Now, though, with Koryan, Mogilevets, Mirzov, and Glushakov supporting Dyadyun, this team suddenly looks very capable in the final third. I really like what they’ve done, and FK Rostov are in no position to stop them here.

Ultimately, I expect an open and entertaining game between these two sides, and thus backing both teams to score at 19/20 makes a lot of sense to me.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 19/20. 

Parma vs Spezia 

KO: 14:00  (UK time)

To look at Parma’s injury list at the moment would put you off. Pleasingly, most of those out are actually backups. If Parma lose two or three players to injury (on top of their current lot), they’re screwed, as they can barely make up a bench at the moment. However, their starting eleven is intact, and it’s a starting eleven worthy of a far higher Serie A placing than it currently has.

They lost Darmian pre-season, and Alves is out here. Plainly speaking, that means Parma can concede. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it, either. They got three promotions in three seasons by playing attacking football, and have been attacking ever since they got back to Serie A too. Now they’ve got a new investor and a lot of money behind them, I very much doubt that they’ll return to more defensive ways ever again. The foundation of this club was built upon attacking football, and that’s what they’ll play.

They’ve got good enough players to do it, too. People seem to think that Kulusevski carried them last season, but nothing could be further from the truth. I thought the Swedish wonderkid was marvellous but he’s not the only good player in this team – Kucka, Kurtic, Gervinho, and Cornelius all played their part too. What’s the point in all that creativity without a big Dane to do the damage up top, for example? They’ve started to play Karamoh more this season too, which is pleasing as he’s been languishing in the middle of nowhere for too long. With him and Gervinho as good options to flank Cornelius, and support from Hernani, Kurtic, Kucka, and a slowly returning Grassi, Parma look very good to me. Don’t forget that they’ve just brought in Cyprien to control things too.

It’s just their defending that bothers me. The work-rate isn’t an issue; these fellas will get back to help out where required. It’s just that not too many of them are particularly fast, and Parma like to play with a lot of adventure so traipsing from one end to the other happens more for them than it does for most, which can lead to fatigue. The point is that they will concede goals rather regularly, I’m afraid, and I doubt that’ll change today. Still, they’re very good at the Ennio Tardini, and they have a far stronger attack, so I expect that to be the decisive factor here.

I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Spezia so far this season. They’ve looked unflappable, organised, and very motivated. They’re out of their depth at this level; there’s no getting around that. They’ve approached it with all of the gusto that they can muster though, and the end product thus far has been good. Yes, they’ve lost harder games, but they’ve upset teams that have underestimated them. I was particularly impressed with them against Udinese. Udinese did very little to them, and considering that the game was at Friuli, that’s quite something. Not just that, but Spezia weren’t bricking themselves at 1-0 – they were pushing for a second, and they got it.

Spezia are almost certainly going to give Parma a game here because they’ve been tactically astute this season, and Parma do have weaknesses. Where Spezia are going to struggle is in the goal-scoring area. Leading goal-scorer Galabinov is amongst numerous absentees, most of which are in defence/goal. Spezia have set their stall out as a counterattacking side this season so both areas are now problem areas for them. They’ve still got Farias to make things happen, at least, but most of their quality is out. Against a very strong Parma attack, I can’t see them enjoying this one too much.

Therefore, I’m on the home win at 21/20.

Verdict: Parma to win at 21/20.

Farense vs Rio Ave 

KO: 15:00  (UK time)

Farense have set their stall out as an attacking team since being promoted to play amongst Portugal’s elite. That’s made them very entertaining to watch, and I am sure they’ll upset a few teams playing this way. They nearly upset SL Benfica at the Estadio do Luz playing that way!

However, the story still seems to be the same each time for poor Farense; play well, don’t score enough chances, and concede more than they score. They finally got a point on the board with a draw against Famalicao last time out, but they had to score three times in order to get it. They’re not going to be afforded that luxury very often, I’m afraid. I do like what I see from the plucky newcomers, but they’re going to find life at this level very tough if they insist on attacking teams all of the time. Can you imagine what Sporting Braga, FC Porto, or even Vitoria Guimaraes would do to such a team?

I do get it – they’ve put effort into recruiting good attackers, and they now have Djalma to help out Stojiljkovic. That, fused with their many creative threats in midfield, and overlapping full-backs, makes for fantastic viewing. It’ll lead to goals in the right games too, perhaps even today. I wouldn’t blame anyone for backing over 2.5 goals here; the odds are good enough. However, they’re looking a bit too wet behind the ears for my liking, Farense. Their defence is far better at attacking than defending, which leads to a lot of mistakes, and they lack the required quality for this level in general anyway. It’s hard to be optimistic for such a team’s surivival, really.

Rio Ave are the kind of team you don’t want to be attacking, either. Don’t be fooled by their league placing or form guide; they play some of the best football in Portugal when they want to. They do lack a natural finisher from open play, it’s true, but they’re a very composed team in general. Watch highlights of their penalty shootout against AC Milan if you require proof. Rio Ave are a seriously good team, and nothing aids them quite like a team that gives them the space to prove it. They’ve not had that luxury this season, other than in their opener against Boavista. That’s because they’ve faced a compact Tondela, and good teams like Vitoria Guimaraes and SL Benfica. Factor in that Rio Ave have been rotating for their European campaign too.

Now, though, Rio Ave are solely focusing on their league games, and that spells trouble for the home team. Rio Ave are terrific at moving the ball at speed, and they’re seldom short of chances to score. They’ve got a good line leader in Moreira, and tremendous support for him in Lucas Piazon, Gelson Dala, and my favourite of the lot, Carlos Mane. The latter is an amazing dribbler when he wants to be. They’re not at all short of players that can play the ball intelligently under pressure, or players that can take a man on. All they lack are finishers, but that matters a lot less when afforded space like they will be today.

To put it bluntly, I’m not sure what Farense can realistically hope to achieve here. Yes, Rio Ave will always give at least one goal away in defence, but this attack of theirs can engineer goals against any team playing at this level, Farense included. For me, the away win at 6/5 is an absolute steal here; these two teams are a long way apart in terms of quality and effectiveness.

Verdict: Rio Ave to win at 6/5. 

Randers vs SonderjyskE  

KO: 15:00  (UK time)

I appreciate that SonderjyskE have got some noteworthy absentees for this fixture, but should they really be underdogs here? That doesn’t make any sense to me. They’ve got more financial backing than they’ve had in years now, and they’ve not been afraid to show it, recently acquiring Nigerian international Onazi in midfield. Even without Absalonsen and Bah, there’s still him, Albaek, and plenty of others to do what’s required, and with Jacobsen and Wright in superb form up front, I’m struggling to find reasons to doubt today’s visitors.

It’s not like they’ve only just been promoted or something, SonderjyskE. They’re a very hard-working, close-knit group at the core that have had some very good players added into the mixer. Their newbies have all settled in well, and the team looks better for it, even beating Brondby last time out. I’d call them ‘dark horses’ but there’s nothing dark horse-esque about a team spending money and improving because of it! They’re good though, SonderjyskE; theycertainly the best that they’ve ever been in the Superligaen, in my opinion, and they should now be taken even more seriously.

With their European campaign over before it even really began, SonderjyskE can focus squarely on the Superligaen, which contains far more bountiful prospects for them than a European campaign that would never have gone anywhere anyway. Barring their heavy defeat at newly-promoted Vejle (actually a very good side; don’t be fooled), they’ve performed admirably this season, and scored a lot of goals along the way. I do prefer it when Absalonsen is on the pitch for them as he’s a natural match-winner, but this squad now has the depth to cope without him, at least against the likes of Randers. I really don’t see the visitors losing this one, and I’m not sure why they’re underdogs either.

I do like Randers; don’t get me wrong. Much like SonderjyskE, they were founded upon hard work and getting the most out of what little quality they had. Randers used to always have this penchant for Swedish footballers, for some reason, and it served them well. There was a growing contingent there. However, now it’s just goalkeeper Carlgren, and I genuinely believe that they miss them. That’s where most of their flair players came from. Now they’ve opted for local lads plus Africans – a very common combination in Scandinavia in general – but it’s not working out for them. Personally, I find them to be a tad too flat, which is probably why they recently acquired Mileusnic from Adelaide United in Australia. I think they’re in for a nasty surprise there, though. He’s ok, but is injured far too easily, and is unrecognisable when short of confidence.

As is always the case, Randers have taken gambles this season. It’s just that none of them have paid off yet. Other than Kamara, there’s not an ounce of unpredictability in this squad. The fight, and the cohesion – they’re both still there. Their ineffectual ways in the final third are understandably causing them issues though. They’ve had some really hard games already this season, Randers, but it’s the way they’ve seldom troubled their opponents that troubles me. I think they’re in for a very long campaign unless they find a couple of players to link their midfield to their attack, and I really don’t believe Mileusnic to be that player right now.

Therefore, I’ve got to view the away win with draw no bet cover as a bit of a steal at 5/4.

Verdict: SonderjyskE to win with draw no bet at 5/4. 

Young Boys Bern vs Luzern 

KO: 15:00  (UK time)

You could be forgiven for thinking that Young Boys Bern’s paltry goals tally in the Super League this season is down to their European commitments, but it’s not. It’s down to the poor management of Seoane. I’m sorry to say it, but opposing Young Boys Bern makes far more sense than backing them nowadays.

True enough, it takes more boldness to do it in the division they’ve conquered for the past few years, but it simply makes more and more sense to do so. This team has very little to offer nowadays, to be frank. Yes, they’ve got 1,5 squads of experienced Super League players, most of which can decide games in their favour, but the tactics of Seoane are arrogant. He strikes me as arrogant, actually. He wants Young Boys Bern to win by virtue of simply being better than their opponents rather than bothering trying to outsmart them, and it shows. The conceit he must have to think that Assale, von Bergen etc. can be so easily replaced is staggering to me.

Subsequently, what’s left in this squad is amateur now, whether it’s tactics or collective quality. von Ballmoos in goal looks a shadow of what he used to be. They’ve no alternative wing-backs, which is going to make their UEFA Europa League commitments really bloody difficult for them, bearing in mind that all good things from Young Boys Bern come from wide positions. Their centre-backs are too young/not good enough with little to no leadership to call upon, and their best holding midfielder is still injured, and thus cannot play here. There’s a real imbalance to this squad that would never, ever have happened on Hutter’s watch.

Their attack is cringeworthy too. It’s still all about Nsame carrying them except he can’t always hit the dizzying heights of last season. There’s no alternatives in this squad that can do his job because Seoane was too arrogant to replace Hoarau, Young Boys Bern’s best player of the past five years or more. Embarrassing. Now they’re reaping what they’ve sown, Young Boys Bern. Don’t be fooled by their dominance of the country, either – they’ve simply had very little competition. Now we have to see how Seoane is going to rotate to play a game every three days when there are four positions that he doesn’t have good enough backups for. They’re supposed to be off to Romania next week! How are Sulejmani, Nsame, and Ngamaleu going to handle that? They can’t be rotated, especially not with Spielmann and Sierro amongst the absentees for the home team today.

I won’t deny that my dislike of what Young Boys Bern have become doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be shit in the nation’s capital today, but it does increase the chances of such. Yes, they’re still the best team in the country, but only by virtue of other teams beating one another, not because they’re still awesome. I see far too many weaknesses in this squad, not to mention individual errors, so even though I recognise the superior individuals in this squad when compared to Luzern’s, I still want to oppose the home team here. It just makes sense, honestly – they’re not the team they once were.

On top of that, I’ve been really impressed with what Luzern have done pre-season, which is beginning to show. Luzern seldom get much attention nowadays, which is their own fault, really. They made the conscientious decision to stop paying top dollar wages years back now, and it almost cost them their place in the division as a result. However, they’ve since learned how to adapt, and now find themselves in a much healthier financial position. They’ve not been close to doing well in Europe for years as a consequence of such, but maybe, just maybe, this squad can make it happen. Let’s wait and see. I offer no promises, but I really do like what they’ve done.

So what have they done? Well, I’ll tell you. Firstly, young midfielder Ugrinic came back to the club, and he’s virtually a general for them despite his youthful age. He inspires those around him, and is a very good passer of the ball. Alongside a more direct new recruit in Austria’s Schaub, as well as experienced head Schurpf, Luzern do not struggle to create chances anymore. On top of that, they’ve recently acquired a brilliant dribbler in Tasar, who has moved on loan from Servette. I don’t understand the logic of the move from Servette’s perspective as he’s good enough to play for them, but their loss is Luzern’s gain anyway. With the power they have in front of their back four, Luzern suddenly look rather robust and effective. Fun times!

The fun doesn’t stop there, though. Initially, I was worried where their goals would come from with just young Cameroonian forward Alounga up top, who was nicked from Aarau pre-season, and didn’t honestly look ready for their Challenge League level when Luzern bought him. However, they’ve since added ex-FC Thun frontman Sorgic, who comes from Serbia. Now, there are two Sorgics – the one that looks a joke when he doesn’t score for a while, and the one that channels his inner Savo Milosevic when he is amongst the goals. He was very good for FC Thun when last in Switzerland before an ill-fated move to France to play for Auxerre. Now he’s back where he was raised, and he’s already amongst the goals for his new club. Bluntly put, Luzern are ready to start causing some upsets with this attack of theirs.

Yes, their defence does look pretty terrifying, especially with Schwegler still injured. However, they’re going to score plenty of goals this season, and I think they will in Bern today too. If they do, they should be more than capable of recording a positive result against a very predictable Young Boys Bern side. Admittedly, this is a bold call, knowing that the reigning champions have enough individual quality to score three goals by themselves here. However, I’ve seen nothing from Young Boys Bern that worries me, they’re playing every three games whereas their opponents have had ages to prepare for this game, and the visitors have been criminally underestimated by the bookies after seriously good transfer signings.

Therefore, I have to back Luzern to win this game with a +1.5 Asian Handicap at 22/25.

Verdict: Luzern to win with a +1.5 Asian Handicap at 22/25. 

Molde FK vs Stromsgodset  

KO: 17:00  (UK time)

I watched the reversal of this fixture, expecting a massacre in Molde FK’s favour, and I was not disappointed. It’s always the same when these two teams have met since Stromsgodset lost a lot of their quality players. Both teams attack one another except that one of them – Molde FK – is an awful lot better at it than their opponents are. Subsequently, Molde FK tend to batter them. The scoreline in Drammen was 4-0 to the visitors, and a similar one tonight would not be at all surprising.

The only thing stopping me from trying a heavier handicap is Molde FK’s UEFA Europa League campaign. They’ve just got back from a gruelling affair against tenacious Dundalk of Republic of Ireland, and next week they’re hosting Rapid Vienna. Rotation is likely today, especially for their more frequently injured players like Eikrem and Omoijuanfo. They can still win this game by two or more without the afore-mentioned, purely because Stromsgodset pay no mind to defending at any stage of any game, but more than that would be a bit of an ask as they’re arguably the two best players in their squad.

This is a dream game for Molde FK to have sandwiched between European games because it’s not complicated for them. Their preparation for such a fixture is minimal, to say the least. Everybody in Norway knows precisely what Stromsgodset are all about – everybody forward, move the ball fast, and try to make things happen. Molde FK are absolutely lethal when you give them space. The only way to stop them is to outsmart them, and Stromsgodset simply aren’t capable of doing that nowadays. In the past? Yes. In the present? No. The only way Molde FK will fuck this one up is if they choose to. They’ve got more than enough quality to decide this game solely in the first-half, making any necessary changes at half-time. It’s just a case of how they want to play it, really.

Like I said above, Stromsgodset are crap at defending. They don’t get numbers back, and those that are back don’t tend to be very good. That’s a staple part of Stromsgodset’s play as it is. Today’s trip to Molde should be even more comical for them, given that two of their best defenders, namely Gunnarsson and Mickelson, are both out, as is rotation defender Parr. If, for some bizarre reason, they weren’t going to go and attack Molde FK today, they’ve now had their hand forced into doing so because without those two, there’s simply no chance of escaping this fixture with a clean sheet – and it was only at about 5% before that little tidbit of information!

I do like the Stromsgodset style, though – I have to admit that. It’s fun. It’s entertaining. With better players, they’re actually very good at it. Those days are long gone now though. What’s left is a myriad of poor finishers with big hearts. Wonderkid Hove has captured a lot of the attention this season but for me, their best player remains Mawa. He can’t hit a barn door, but as a pressing forward, he’s terrific, not to mention fast. He’s a consistent route to goal for Stromsgodset. He wins free-kicks and penalties too. Without him, they’d be boned. Even target man Salvesen looks a bit stuck without him! The combination they have in attack leads to chances more often than not, even against teams like Molde FK, but they’re seldom taken. That, fused with Stromsgodset’s inability to defend, leads to more losses/draws than wins.

They are battlers though, Stromsgodset – they’re not lazy by any stretch of the imagination. If you underestimate them, or can’t be bothered to run against them, you’re in trouble. Unfortunately for the visitors, Molde FK are usually fine to be trusted to match the work-rate of their opponents, largely owing to their own tactical ineptitude, and that spells disaster for the visitors. I think that Stromsgodset are in for yet another Molde FK drubbing here, to be frank.

Therefore, I’m on Molde FK to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 97/100.

Verdict: Molde FK to beat the –1.5 Asian Handicap at 97/100.

Sarpsborg 08 vs Rosenborg BK 

KO: 17:00  (UK time)

I’ve got to hand it to Swedish boss Stahre. When I saw what Sarpsborg 08 had to work with at the start of the season, I genuinely though they’d be relegated, and their early season defeats did nothing to dissuade me from thinking that way. However, as the season has gone on, they’ve made themselves a lot smarter than most Eliteserien teams – that’s how they’ve been picking up points. Now they’ve only lost once at home sinec early July, and that defeat came against title hopefuls Bodo/Glimt, which tells you how far Sarpsborg 08 have come.

Again, they’re still not laden with quality, but they have improved what they’ve got to offer. The tactics of Stahre have helped an awful lot, but intelligent transfer activity has done them good too. I mean, bringing in Molins on a free? What a steal! I assumed he’d stay in the Allsvenskan but no, he’s off for a Norwegian adventure. It’s hard to keep him fit, but when he’s on the pitch, he makes things happen. Then there’s Salteros returning from FK Rostov, Jakobsen joining, and most importantly, Heintz’s return to the club that raised him, to consider. All of those players significantly improve the attacking options of Sarpsborg 08, and it means that Abdellaoue is in for better service for the rest of the season.

Still, this is a defensive team because they recognise that containing teams is what they’re best at. With experienced defensive midfielders, and a seldom interrupted back four, not to mention arguably the best shot stopper in the country right now in North Macedonia’s Mitov-Nilsson, they’re very good at containing teams. Hard to imagine how Dimitrievski keeps his place in the North Macedonia squad whilst making the mistakes he has been when this fella is just waiting for an opportunity. Anyway, Stahre sets them up really intelligently, and I can see them frustrating the hell out of superior Rosenborg BK tonight. I’m not ruling out an away win; I’m just saying that the Trondheim heavyweights are going to have to work bloody hard for it if they do win.

They’ve got a shit record at Sarpsborg 08 in recent years, Rosenborg BK, and this is one of the weaker squads that they’ve turned up with. Unsurprisingly, Nigerian attacker Adegbenro is injured – again – so they’re going to be the same predictable attacking team as they always are here. Still, the service into Islamovic has been a lot better since Skjelbred returned to the club as his passing gets the ball wider faster and more accurately. Henriksen’s return to the club will help on that front too in due course. With Holse emerging too, Rosenborg BK look reasonably good; certainly streets ahead of where they were at the start of the season.

The star of their show has been Zachariassen though. What a player they’ve got there! He’d be properly appreciated if he were in a good team, but let’s face it – he’s not. This fella is a wizard though. His general playmaking is great and all, but what I love most about him is his late runs into the box. I’ve seldom seen a playmaker so good in the air, or quite so measured in front of goal. I shudder to think at how predictable they’d be without the ex-Sarpsborg 08 man. Anyway, Rosenborg BK control games better under Hareide now, which is very important here because their defence looks older and slower every time I see it. With the ball though, not much can happen to Rosenborg BK – or at least that’s the theory.

Having seen how Rosenborg BK were restrained by Kristiansund last time out though, who play similarly to Sarpsborg 08, I envision another tough game looming for the visitors. With that in mind, backing under 2.5 goals at evens appeals to me here.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens. 

Famalicao vs Boavista 

KO: 17:30  (UK time)

The odds on Famalicao winning this game look way too long for my liking. I get the concept it; Famalicao are not the same team that pushed for a European place last season. Yes, they’ve still got lots of friends in high places so I don’t see them going away anytime soon. However, they’ve signed a whole new group of players because a lot of them were on loan, and integrating them takes time.

On paper, they’re not quite as good as the Famalicao of last season, but remain a top seven team in my book. The bookies underestimated that fact against Belenenses so I’ve kept an eye on them since then to see if they’ve done it again – and they have tonight. I can accept them messing up against Rio Ave, or even being surprised by Farense on the road, but not at home against predictable, dull-as-dishwater Boavista. I’m not buying it folks, sorry!

With each passing week, this Famalicao squad galvanises more and more. Ruben Lameiras has already bagged more goals in this campaign than he did in the entirety of the last one! Brazilian midfielder Assuncao and Bruno Jordao have impressed an awful lot too, and they’re going to be even better whenever it is that Gil Dias decides to join the party, as he’s far too good to be playing at this level nowadays. Sousa’s boys are all about attacking, so that’s all that they do, and all of their best players are to be found in the final third. That makes them one hell of an overs team, and that should be the case again tonight because their defence is tosh.

Don’t underestimate Famalicao though. They’re in the kind of position whereby they’ll languish in the bottom half of the table for a while because of a lack of consistency whilst they iron out a few things within their squad. However, they’ve genuinely got the capacity to push for a European place next season, whether they get one or not. They’re excellent at scoring goals, and the more they play together, the better they get at it. I can see this team causing Boavista no end of problems tonight!

The real question is how many can Boavista score? I really don’t rate them as being very good at that, even though they have got Lille OSC wonderkid Angel Gomes on their books. He’s a brilliant creator but Boavista generally don’t attack a lot, and subsequently don’t have a lot of quality in their attack. It’s hardly surprising that the stars of their team are defensive players like holding midfielder Javi Garcia, and centre-back Adil Rami. Big captures for a small club, to be fair, and I’m sure that they’ve got some ‘friends’ somewhere that have helped them to achieve such big name acquisitions. Still, the fact that they’ve gone for defenders speaks volumes, really.

The problem for Boavista is that they find it very easy to get worse, year on year, and they don’t even have a plastic pitch in their home games to fall back on anymore. Now it’s literally all about what they can do on the pitch, and honestly, that’s not a lot. On paper, they’ve got one of their stronger squads in some years and yet I see less cohesion and effort than ever before. Boavista pride themselves on their work-rate. For those of you with long memories, that’s how they got into Europe to face the likes of Manchester United many moons ago. They’ve never lost that workmanlike approach of theirs – until now. They look uncomfortable nowadays, Boavsista.

I don’t think anyone in the division would be sad to see them go either, not after the feathers they ruffled after automatically being promoted two divisions after an ongoing legal dispute. They’ve been living on borrowed time since then, and I tip my hat to then because they’ve done it very well with limited resources. They do nothing for me this season, though. They’re playing far too boldly for a poor team, and the absence of key French defender Rami tonight is far from ideal. It looks to me like they’re going to have a go at Famalicao, and that’s the wrong call. Parking the bus would produce far better results here but this Boavista team doesn’t seem to want to do that anymore, and that should only result in one outcome against this arising Famalicao side tonight.

I doubt it’ll be done professionally, and I wouldn’t blame anyone for backing over 2.5 goals instead, but I have to back the home win at 27/20 in what should be a pretty clear mismatch.

Verdict: Famalicao to win at 27/20. 

Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras  

KO: 19:00  (UK time)

With a new manager, against an Atletico Goianiense who have just lost theirs to Corinthians, I’m struggling to not want to back Palmeiras here.

I don’t think it’s a secret that Palmeiras are one of Brazil’s best teams. They’ve seldom shown it this season, and their display against Coritiba was probably the worst I’ve seen them play, hence Luxemburgo’s sacking. Lopes struggled to get more from the team on the trip to Fortaleza – no surprise there, tough away game – but steered them to an emphatic 5-0 victory against Tigre of Argentina in the Copa Libertadores mid-week. They’ve got some much-needed confidence back because of that result, and I’d like to think that they’d be able to use that productively here.

Palmeiras have more than enough quality to win the game, and are only missing a couple of defenders of any note. They’ve got the usual suspects in midfield available – Menino, de Paula, Veiga, Lima, and Ramires, not to mention Melo. That’s enough for me. If they’re playing well enough, Luiz Adriano’s and Willian’s service will be very good, and when that happens, Palmeiras score goals. They’ve been playing within themselves this season, it’s true, but now is an opportunity for them to get their campaign going. This is not a hard game to win. If they work hard and keep their focus, they’ll win it; they’re too good for their hosts. However, if the work-rate is not there, they’ll find it hard because Atletico Goianiense are very patient.

Mancini’s departure hasn’t quite choked the home team just yet. They’re still delivering resilient, compact displays, and pissing off most teams that they come up against. Still, facing a Santos side missing Marinho, and then hosting Athletico Paranaense (who had a more important game in Uruguay to prepare for) were not as challenging fixtures as they could have been. I think we’ll find more out about the home team tonight, and I’m not optimistic that it’ll be good things.

I still think Atletico Goianiense have done themselves proud this season. Despite having one of the weakest squads in Serie A, they’ve given a lot in every game, and looked well-prepared for each opponent. Top teams can still beat them, of course, but they’ve really perfected the art of irritation. They’ve played their matches to their own strengths, and capitalised upon sides that have underestimated them. I’m not sure Palmeiras will be one of them. Three weeks ago, yes, but not now. They look a more convincing outfit, the Sao Paulo heavyweights, and I’m not sure that Atletico Goianiense will be able to do anything to stop them.

At odds of 7/5, I’ll take my chance here on the far superior team actually showing up tonight, especially with key midfielder Felipe out for the home team.

Verdict: Palmeiras to win at 7/5.

Fluminense vs Santos  

KO: 19:00  (UK time)

Advice – check line-ups before getting involved here. Marinho is listed as a doubt for the visitors, and if he misses out, I’d rather you took the Fluminense win than both teams to score.

Sat here now though, I have to believe that Marinho will play, and if he does, Santos should score here. Fluminense don’t defend well enough, and nor do they really try to. Without going gung-ho, they’re still a very attack-minded team, Fluminense. Considering that they’re not exactly laden with speed, they don’t seem to have any fears when it comes to pushing men forward. That’s both bold and stupid in equal measure, but it has worked out for them more than it hasn’t this season, which is why I think that Hellmann has done a good job. This isn’t a great team but it’s one that has a lot of creativity, and Hellmann sure does get the most out of his team.

Helpfully, the Rio de Janeiro side have got Ganso back tonight, which restores their phenomenal attacking midfield trio of him, Paulo, and Nene. When they’re on the pitch, it doesn’t even matter who is up front because they’ll always get chances. They’ve not failed to score at home this season, Fluminense, and that’s despite hosting Internacional, Palmeiras, Flamengo, and Corinthians along the way. Hosting a defensively inept Santos side should not be problematic for them in that regard, although having watched their game against Ceara, whether they do enough defensively to win the game is something I’m going to sit on the fence for.

Again, I want Marinho to start for the visitors because he’s the only one they’ve got that’s capable of carrying the team. Santos know that; that’s why they re-signed former academy graduate Robinho lately, which I thought was a very astute move on their part, given their complete inability to actually control games. However, since the rape investigation is ongoing, one of the Santos sponsors threatened to pull out of the club because he was back, so Santos had to let Robinho go just a week after he returned. Comedy gold, this club!

Still, for all of their vulnerabilities and inconsistencies, not to mention frustrations, the one thing that Santos can always do is score goals. Marinho is the best they’ve got at it, and he’s capable of making things happen all by himself if he has to. Fortunately, he does have Soteldo to support him, and the Venezuelan is a good creator. In general though, this team’s ‘ability’ to drift in and out of contests is the only thing that’s remarkable and consistent about them, which is why I can’t take them seriously anymore. I trust them to score and concede goals, but that’s it – and that’s the case tonight too.

For me, this is a both teams to score game.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 19/20. 

Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva 

KO: 19:00  (UK time)

At long last, the Israeli Ligat Ha’al returns after a Covid-19 break. There couldn’t be a better fixture to welcome it back than these two teams locking horns, though. This is the newest derby in Israeli football, given that it’s only about five years old, but it’s one that has become incredibly volatile over the years. Even with Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s relative demise in mind, they still show a great level of hatred for today’s hosts, and I would be surprised if that did not manifest itself in the form of cards tonight.

I expect a good game, though – that’s the more important thing here. Over the past couple of years, I’ve expected Maccabi Tel-Aviv to win such clashes without much fuss because of Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s problems behind the scenes. However, based on what I’ve seen from The Camels this season, I have to believe that they’re going to give a good account of themselves tonight. Both teams were in action mid-week, and both did themselves proud, beating tough teams at home. Hapoel Be’er Sheva in particular both surprised and impressed me by overcoming a superior Slavia Prague.

In that encounter, Hapoel Be’er Sheva demonstrated extraordinary togetherness, speed, and effectiveness. I’m used to the ‘togetherness’ aspect; it’s the other two that I didn’t really expect, at least not for a long time. The fact that they’ve found a far more consistent solution to their goal-scoring woes in Shviro is one thing, but to suddenly start to get the best out of Salalich and Keltjens, and to push Josue into a more commanding role – it’s all very intelligent stuff. I may not trust Hapoel Be’er Sheva to keep clean sheets at the present time, but they do look more intelligent and effective than they have since Barda retired

That may or may not be enough for them to upset their bitter rivals; only time will tell on that front. It’s enough to give them a good chance though, and that’s what I am interested in here. This is not a particularly good Maccabi Tel-Aviv side, after all, and few teams are motivated to do well against them than Hapoel Be’er Sheva. I believe that their newfound energetic style, a few lucky punts on newbies, and the addition of sly boss Abukasis has done them good. They’ve become meaner, harder, and are getting more by attrition. This is a team to take seriously again,even if they’re not as good as they used to be.

Maccabi Tel-Aviv are still Israel’s best team though; that much cannot be avoided. Is it a particularly good team though? No. They look a little bit short of the star quality they once had. I know Atzili did daft things, hence his fleeing to Cyprus, but he was still a star attacker. He could still decide games in their favour. Even Ofoedu, for all of his time on the sidelines, was a player that could do that. Now I just see Blackman and Rikan; possibly Ben-Haim if he ever manages to get fully fit/interested again. It’s just not that good a team.

Luckily for them, this is not a very competitive Ligat Ha’al, at least not at the top. They’re simply too good for the rest. Even with new boss Donis – who should return to the touchline today – they will still win the title. It’s not a team I trust to beat this Hapoel Be’er Sheva side tonight though, even though I recognise them to be the superior team. Instead, I trust them to do what they’ve done in all of their games of late – push men forward, and score goals. Dinamo Brest and Qarabagh FK wasted their chances to score but Salzburg didn’t. I don’t believe in-form Hapoel Be’er Sheva will waste theirs either because Maccabi Tel-Aviv do leave a lot of gaps nowadays.

Therefore, I’ve got to consider backing both teams to score at 19/20.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 19/20. 

Arsenal vs Leicester City 

KO: 19:15  (UK time)

For the first time in ages, I do feel confident that Arsenal can actually break down a very good counterattacking side like Leicester City. Don’t get me wrong; they will have to be at their best here; you all saw what The Foxes can do against Manchester City!

This Arteta team looks smarter than those before him though, as I’ve said on countless occasions now. They look far more equipped to deal with the modern game, The Gunners, because they play more modern football themselves. That means pressing harder, keeping the ball better, riding tough challenges, and sometimes fighting dirty. They’re by no means a perfect team, but they’ve made the necessary changes to make this team competitive in future years. I think the only sad aspect for Arsenal is that if they do get to where I think they will, it’ll be well after Aubameyang’s best period with the club, and his time deserves more silverware than it’ll get.

I thought the Arsenal display mid-week showed their progress perfectly on a number of levels, really. They were able to rotate and yet remain competitive, and only had to introduce the big guns for a brief period in order to turn their dominance into goals. They never panicked, even when falling behind, and they produced a very professional display, all things considered. They look far more trustworthy nowadays, Arsenal, even winning matches that they’re not necessarily playing well in. Their squad balance hasn’t been this strong since the early Wenger days, either. They’ve got enough about them to both score against and contain teams, and that should be proven today.

Leicester City have disappointed me in most of their games this season too. Admittedly, they have been missing players, but I guess I hoped they’d step it up a notch. The quality is in their squad, enough so for them to push for a top four place – but they don’t seem to want to under Rodgers, if that makes sense. It’s almost as if they’re content to remain as underdogs for the rest of time. They may be brilliant at counterattacking, Leicester City, but should a club in their position really be playing that way so consistently nowadays? Can you imagine Tottenham Hotspur doing that? I can’t. I think it’s about time that the Midlands club demonstrated some ambition, but I fear Rodgers is not the man to do that for them.

For now, Leicester City remain counterattacking moguls, and although they’ll have some joy playing that way, I can’t see it working down to a tee, not with the players they’ve got out. Key Turkish centre-back Soyuncu is out, essential right-back Pereira is still out, and Nigerian powerhouse Ndidi is too. That’s three defensive players missing for the visitors, which is a problem. Now, I do think that Castagne has stepped into Pereira’s shoes well, and I am not at all surprised to be uttering those words, having seen what he can do at Atalanta Bergamo. However, the middle of their defence looks suspect at the moment, especially with Fofana still finding his feet. Mendy has done alright in Ndidi’s absence but it’s not the same, and that should show in bigger games like this one.

As good as Leicester City’s full-backs have been this season, it’s the spine of their team that concerns me. A counterattacking team without its best defender is not one that is going to win enough games. They’ve already lost against Arsenal in the League Cup this season, and with everything taken into account (including Leicester City’s UEFA Europa League campaign vs lack of capacity to rotate), I can’t help but envision another Arsenal victory tonight.

Verdict: Arsenal to win at 9/10. 

Cremonese vs Brescia 

KO: 20:00  (UK time)

This clash in Italy’s Serie B is a heavy derby. These two teams will not hold back in letting the other know what they really think, either. Subtlety has never been a strong suit of either of them! The derby itself – entitled ‘Derby Violin’ – hasn’t been played as often as it could be because these two teams spend a lot of time entering and exiting other divisions for different reasons but when it’s played, there tends to be fireworks.

The bookies have Cremonese down as 6/5 favourites to win this game. I find that interesting because Brescia are the far better side, having barely made any changes at all since being relegated from Serie A. I would not be tempted to back the outright away win here because star striker Donnarumma is out for the visitors. However, I find the hosts priced far too short to win what is a hard game to win, particularly in a derby. They’re a complicated side to overcome, Cremonese, but they’re still not very good at actually winning games, predominantly due to a lack of quality.

That’s my opinion in general, and it’s only been strengthened by their team news for this game. Bear in mind that they lost number one goalkeeper Ravaglia to Sampdoria pre-season, and that his understudy Agazzi retired pre-season. That meant that they signed Alfonso as number one, and promoted Volpe from number three to number two. For tonight’s game, Alfonso is out, meaning Volpe – who has played, what, four games in two years? – has go in net. On top of that, they’re missing half of their regular back four with Bianchetti and Ravanelli injured. They may have the mental steel required to piss Brescia off here, but with those absentees, I can’t see Cremonese keeping a clean sheet.

I’m also unconvinced by the Cremonese attacking setup. Their best goal-scorer last season was Palombi (with six!), and he left for Pisa pre-season, and I’ve not seen anything of Arini, who has presumably now retired. They brought in target man Strizzolo from Pordenone but it’s not really the answer in a very limited attack, especially not when their strongest creative area is not out wide, but is through the middle via Valzania and Gustafson. As much as I admire the consistent tenacity that Cremonese ooze, I just don’t rate them as a good team. I’m sure they’ll very motivated to do well in this derby but with little to nothing to fear, I have to favour the away team.

Brescia are not playing to their best right now, I grant you. Losing at a Chievo Verona side bereft of Obi and Giaccherini mid-week was embarrassing, really. They’re not short of good defenders, Brescia, nor good midfielders, but their final third play needs to be better than it has been. When it links up well – as seen in home games against Lecce and Trapani – they’re absolutely deadly, and so they should be, given that they’ve basically got a Serie A squad on their books. They just need to become more consistent when getting forward, and it’s something new boss Lopez should be able to do, just as he did when he was brought in to try and save them from relegation.

Again, Donnarumma’s absence here is not ideal but it’s still not enough for me to doubt Brescia in this derby. The bare minimum they should get from a game against a below average Cremonese team that are missing half of their defence is a draw. Whether they do enough in front of goal to get the win is down to them, but they should be able to, even without Donnarumma. There’s more than enough through the middle and out wide for them to manage it, and Aye in the middle will win plenty of aerial duels. Logically, there’s no reason to doubt Brescia here, really, even if their form guide would have you believe otherwise.

Therefore, derby or not, I almost feel compelled to back Brescia to win with draw no bet cover at 6/5.

Verdict: Brescia to win with draw no bet at 6/5. 

Internacional vs Flamengo  

KO: 21:15  (UK time)

I was tempted by the odds on the visitors here but both have had mid-week games, and Flamengo especially have played an awful lot of games over the past few weeks. Sometimes it takes its toll, too. For example, the difference in displays between the 1-1 draw against RB Bragantino and the 5-1 win at Corinthians was there for all to see.

I still think that the reigning Serie A champions can nick this one though. Internacional have lost a lot of defensive composure since Bambu joined OGC Nice. Luckily, they’ve stepped things up in attack, mostly thanks to the sheer brilliance of late bloomer Thiago Galhardo. Coudet also brought in Fernandez and Fernandez to bolster their ranks with Guerrero still out, and that’s importantly provided Internacional with points of reference up front. Neither has bagged many goals – just one between them, actually – but they’ve both done what they were brought in to lead, which was lead the line. Because of them the likes of d’Alessandro, Boschilia, and Galhardo have been able to thrive.

Their recent Serie A form has been good, Internacional. Four straight wins against RB Bragantino, Athletico Paranaense, Sport Recife, and Vasco da Gama have done them the world f good. I couldn’t say that they’ve been particularly challenged in any of those fixtures, at least not on paper, although Lomba was forced into some good saves at the end of the game in Recife. Internacional do seem to take great delight in making life hard for themselves though, and a defeat in Chile just two nights ago was a fine example of such, now having missed the opportunity to top the group ahead of bitter rivals Gremio. I have every faith in Internacional remaining a good attacking force because they’ve done all that’s required of them to make it happen. It’s their defence that worries me, and it’s against good teams where it shows the most.

Flamengo sometimes annoy me because they’ve got that typical big club complacency, and it makes them annoying to predict sometimes. This is arguably the best team that Brazil’s Serie A has even seen in the 2000’s; that’s how good they’re capable of being. Whether they want to show it or not depends on how they feel at the time, though. One thing is for sure – Flamengo always have another gear to go to, and that’s why they find it easier to win games than most at this level. The quality in their squad affords them the luxury of stepping it up when they see fit, and I daresay that’ll win them the title again. I don’t think Torrent has a good excuse if they fail to, really, not with their main challengers Palmeiras languishing way down the table.

For all of Flamengo’s attacking quality though, their defending has been lazy. I appreciate that they’ve played without Caio in a number of recent fixtures, and as their best defender, they’ve missed him. It’s more than that, though. The laziness I see from their back four – and slowness – is concerning. Most teams just aren’t savvy enough in the final third to punish them for it, sadly. Only a bit of luck would have changed things of late though. Take the Vasco da Gama win, for example. At 2-1, Vasco da Gama – despite being comfortably dealt with by Flamengo at the time – had a goal very harshly ruled out for offside after a VAR review. It was the correct call, don’t get me wrong, but there was little in it. Had Cano timed his run better, that game ends 2-2. Flamengo didn’t press on the edge of their own box, and they didn’t track the Argentinian’s run. As I said – lazy defending, and it would have cost them in a tougher fixture, like a trip to Internacional, for example!

So, yeah – it’s a both teams to score game for me, whichever way it ends up going.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.