TFT Issue 3247!

Denizlispor vs Besiktas JK 

KO: 17:00  (UK time)

Again, still no away fans in Turkish Super Lig football, at least not until 2021-ish, so the customary home advantage simply isn’t there anymore. This is a time when Denizlispor really need their fans too because they are not playing well, and it’ll take more than a win against Genclerbirligi, the only team in the division to look weaker than them at the moment, to convince me otherwise.

Despite a raft of reasonable names in their attack, things are not yet clicking for Denizlispor. I certainly would not dare be bold enough to suggest that it’s going to remain that way because I respect Rodallega, Sacko, and even newcomer Mesanovic too much for that. The problem at the moment is cohesion though, as there simply isn’t enough of it. As good a job as Denizlispor have done in sorting out their defensive midfield area, I’m struggling to see any genuine creators in this squad. Last season, they had Estupinan, Barrow, and Aissati to breathe life into a somewhat stale attack, and it worked. Now there’s only Aissati, and as much as I like him, he’s not going to be able to do much by himself.

So it’s proven to be in the current campaign too. I may not see a particularly consistent finisher in their squad right now, but I do see players that make good runs, that are as good on the floor as they are in the air, and that aren’t complacent in anything that they do. Therefore, there are targets for creators to hit. The problem is the lack of creators. They just don’t do enough for their front men, Denizlispor, and as good as they’ve been at the back this season now that Subotic has joined, they aren’t winning matches – and that’s a problem.

Things aren’t likely to get any easier for them tonight either. Besiktas JK have done some good business in recent times, albeit a bit too late in the day for my liking. They should have done it months ago but anyway, the point is that I like the end product. This team has had enough time together now in order to be effective tonight. They’ve not kicked a professional ball in three weeks but did smash newly-promoted Fatih Karagumruk 5-2 in a recent friendly to keep players from getting too rusty. I think they’ll do well here, especially without any fans to heap the pressure on.

Again, I like what the Istanbul heavyweights have done lately. Ghezzal’s arrival means N’Koudou’s absence (which is far too often) isn’t quite as big a deal. Aboubakar’s arrival affords them a very good line-leader and a natural goal-scorer, which they’ve been missing since Yilmaz left. Tore’s return is a risk, given his lack of fitness over the past few years, but he enjoyed his finest footballing years in the black-and-white jersey so maybe, just maybe, he can return to being the left-wing terror that he always was. They’ve still got Ljajic to make things happen, Mensah to ease into the Hutchinson role, and Ozyakup plus Lens for when that extra something special is needed to break teams down. With N’Sakala raging forward from full-back, Besiktas JK now have an attack that cannot be easily contained, and as much as their defence does make me uneasy, I can see them scoring more than they concede in general, starting tonight.

Therefore, I’m content to back the visitors to win at evens.

Verdict: Besiktas JK to win at evens. 

AC Milan vs AS Roma 

KO: 19:45  (UK time)

Despite both teams competing in the UEFA Europa League, the focus for them both is Serie A, at least for the present. That may change by February, depending on how the league table looks, but for now Serie A is the focus. Both clubs rotated their squads for their respective games on Thursday night so should be rather fresh tonight.

In terms of absentees, AC Milan have the upper hand here. In Fonseca’s own words, “AS Roma need Chris Smalling” – and that was before they signed him. He’s not expected to be fit for this game, which would mean that he joins fellow defender Mancini on the sidelines. Furthermore, defensive midfielder Diawara is a big doubt, and arguably the best player they’ve got, Zaniolo, is still out as he’s set for yet another lengthy injury. Such a pity; Zaniolo is a real talent, and AS Roma miss him when he doesn’t play because of his driving runs and confidence on the ball. The absentees won’t make AS Roma easy to beat, but they will make AS Roma easier to beat.

The main obstacle with overcoming Fonseca’s men is the ‘being smart enough’ element. What the Portuguese tactician has brought to AS Roma is energy, speedy passing, and a great deal of comfort on the ball. All of their centre-backs look strong on the ball, players are happy to swap positions, and they look far more creative because of it. Despite the criticism that big Dzeko took from the Bosnia-Herzegovina fans for his international displays lately, he’s still the top dog at AS Roma. Every time I see him play, I am impressed. His hold-up play, his vision, his awareness, and his ability to be in the right place at the right time makes him an irreplaceable player in their ranks right now.

Still, there are two ways to stop AS Roma, which are naturally made easier by Zaniolo’s absence. The first is to defend deep; park the bus, stay frosty, and break with speed. That’ll always cause a dubious AS Roma defence problems. The second option is to be even more energetic and combative than AS Roma; win more 50/50 balls, move players around more, and watch them squirm. Most teams aren’t capable of both of those approaches, at least not in Serie A – but a Pioli-led AC Milan are. They’ve become very flexible, very capable, and very consistent. I believe AS Roma will find it very hard to find a way past them tonight, especially with only Calhanoglu definitely out for the home team.

As long as AC Milan don’t do anything stupid, I firmly believe that they’ll be back amongst the big-timers in a year or two. They’ve finally learnt to stick with a manager rather than sacking them every season, and the benefits are there for all to see. Pioli is a good manager; I personally thought he proved that during his somewhat brief stint at AC Milan’s crosstown rivals Internazionale, but he was harshly dismissed after a run of three or four games where Internazionale lost their focus. With time though, he’s done everything right at AC Milan. He’s building for the future, pushing unwanted/disruptive players out of the door, and making them play better, more intelligent football. They’re so composed now, AC Milan, that they’re genuinely capable of beating any team in the country. They’re in for a fun campaign, I’m sure.

I’m not sure I’m onboard with the Hauge hype, but maybe I’ll be proven wrong. I am, however, onboard with most other things that Pioli has done Ibrahimovic is still banging in the goals but it’s Rafael Leao’s return from anonymity that captured my attention. In the right team, that kid is lethal, I promise you. He’s not had that belief and familiarity until now, and I expect to see him have a ‘breakthrough’ campaign because of it, assuming AC Milan don’t sack Pioli. They’ve got a seriously impressive and mature side, particularly considering that they’re mostly very young players at AC Milan. Nothing fazes them, and they enter each game with smiles on their faces. What more can you really ask for?

No matter what has confronted them this season, AC Milan have had an answer. As good as the work Fonseca has done at AS Roma, they’re still a couple of years behind AC Milan in their ultimate project completion, and it tends to show in the bigger games. AS Roma arguably play more entertaining football than AC Milan, but AC Milan are more consistent and efficient, and I expect them to prove it here, especially if Smalling does indeed join Mancini on the sidelines.

Therefore, the home win at evens suits me just fine in what should be a good game of football.

Verdict: AC Milan to win at evens.