TFT Issue 3248!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Bayern Munich 

KO: (UK time)

Bayern Munich are the best team in the world right now, and they’re facing a Lokomotiv Moscow side still struggling to get to grips with new boss NIkolic’s tactics, not to mention the departure of playmaker Aleksey Miranchuk. I’ve got to consider the away win as a banker here. 

Verdict: Bayern Munich to win at 1/5. 

Banker

Liverpool vs FC Midtjylland 

KO: (UK time)

I do love FC Midtjylland, but a high press like theirs isn’t likely to work against Liverpool, who are too good for them. I do think that their athleticism will give the home team a couple of headaches here, especially with van Dijk out, but Liverpool are going to seriously damage this defence of theirs. I expect a very convincing home win against a team that simply cannot defend.

Verdict: Liverpool to win at 11/100.

Banker

Olympique de Marseille vs Manchester City 

KO: (UK time)

I don’t rate Olympique de Marseille as a good team nowadays, especially not when the Stade Velodrome lies mostly quiet. Manchester City are not playing particularly well at the moment but they still look far more varied and clinical in front of goal than their hosts do. Therefore, I consider the away win as a banker here, and if I thought the visitors were going to play as well as they can here, I would not hesitate in handicapping them.

Verdict: Manchester City to win at 9/25.

Featured game

Atalanta Bergamo vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam 

KO: (UK time)

Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League encounter between Atalanta Bergamo and AFC Ajax Amsterdam.

Initially, my thoughts on this one was to back goals. It’s the logical call, really. Both are very proud, attack-minded teams with far greater attackers than defences. However, the Dutch team’s inability to hurt a van Dijk and Alisson-less Liverpool side makes me wonder if they can hurt Atalanta Bergamo here. I’ve said it for a while now, and I’ll say it again – Dutch football definitely isn’t what it was. I tend to find that, although they don’t lack in attacking intent or gumption, they do tend to lack in quality. 

Quality is something that their Italian counterparts do not lack. I still have concerns over a slow defence playing a high defensive line, but with Atalanta Bergamo’s ability to keep and use the ball intelligently in midfield, I just can’t doubt them for the majority of the time. It takes a lot of tenacity and stamina to cope with the overloading that they’re capable of, and I’m really not convinced that AFC Ajax Amsterdam are good enough to do it. 

Furthermore, I think it’s poignant to note that classy Slovenian playmaker Ilicic is back in town. As far as I am concerned, he’s the best player at the club, and with him, Gomez, and now Miranchuk in the equation, Atalanta Bergamo simply cannot be contained by other teams. They can be outscored, in the right circumstances, but not contained. Those three can pick holes in any defence in Europe, and with Muriel, Zapata, and now big Lammers as options through the middle (who knows tonight’s opponents well), I have to believe that Atalanta Bergamo have enough to outscore AFC Ajax Amsterdam here.

The thing is with the home team is that it’s not just about finding an attacking combination that works, although that obviously helps. It’s about finding a balance throughout their squad that works, the right attitudes, and the right level of fitness, all of which Gasperini has. This is not a team that is going to go away anytime soon because they’ve been intelligently assembled, and they work bloody hard. They’re very entertaining to watch, and they’re very good at taking their chances. I think they’ll wreak havoc here, honestly.

AFC Ajax Amsterdam do love challenges like this, it’s true. Their disdain for teams ‘parking the bus’ is well-known, and they will not back down from this challenge. They’ve got some tremendously skilful individuals themselves in attack, none moreso than Serbian playmaker Tadic, who is a real class act. I genuinely still can’t get over the fact that Southampton sold him for the meagre price that they did. However, AFC Ajax Amsterdam lack finished articles in their squad, for the most part, and that’s what is going to cause them issues against a team that plays like they’ve been doing it for twenty years now.

Therefore, I expect the Italians to outscore the Dutch heavyweights, and odds of 4/5 on that outcome suit me just fine.

Verdict: Atalanta Bergamo to win at 4/5.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

UEFA Champions League:

Lokomotiv Moscow – Barinov and Lysov are absent. Ignatjev is a doubt.
Bayern Munich – Arp, Davies, Nianzou, and R. Hoffmann are absent. Tolisso, Sule, Sane, and Pavard return.
Shakhtar Donetsk – Ismaily, Konoplyanka, Kovalenko, Moraes, and Kryvtsov are absent.
Internazionale – Gagliardini, Skirinar, and Radu are absent.
Atletico Madrid – Costa and Vrsaljko are absent. Niguez is a doubt.
Salzburg – Bernede, Diakite, and Diarra are absent.
Borussia Moenchengladbach – Beyer, Doucoure, Lazaro, Poulsen, and Zakaria are absent.
Real Madrid – Carvajal and Odegaard are absent. Hazard, Odriozola, and Diaz are doubts.
FC Porto – Marcano and Mbaye are absent.
Olympiakos Piraeus – Camara, Cuypers, and Silva are absent.
Olympique de Marseille – No absentees.
Manchester City – Aguero, Mendy, Jesus, and Fernandinho are absent. Ake is a doubt.
Liverpool – van Dijk is absent. Keita, Matip, and Thiago Alcantara are major doubts.
FC Midtjylland – Hansen, Brumado, and Riis are absent.
Atalanta Bergamo – Piccini, Gollini, and Caldara are absent. De Roon is a doubt.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Kudus is absent. 

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Viking Stavanger – Berisha and Hove are absent.
Haugesund – No absentees.

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

UEFA Champions League: 

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Bayern Munich (8) 0-2
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Internazionale (5) 2-2
Atletico Madrid vs Salzburg (4) 1-1
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Real Madrid (6) 1-2
FC Porto vs Olympiakos Piraeus (5) 1-1
Olympique de Marseille vs Manchester City (7) 0-2
Liverpool vs FC Midtjylland (7) over 2.5 goals
Atalanta Bergamo vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (6) over 2.5 goals

Copa Sudamericana:

Sport Huancayo vs Liverpool Montevideo (5) 0-0
Audax Italiano vs Bolivar La Paz (6) 1-0
Union La Calera vs Deportes Tolima (6) 2-1
Atletico Lanus vs Sao Paulo (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game 

Italian Coppa Italia:

Sampdoria vs Salernitana (6) 2-1
Bologna vs Reggina (4) 1-1
Virtus Entella vs Pisa (5) 1-0
Pordenone vs Monza (5) 1-2 

Dutch KNVB Beker:

FC Twente Enschede vs De Graafschap (6) 2-0
VVV vs FC Den Bosch (5) 1-1
SC Heerenveen vs TOP Oss (6) 1-0
FC Dordrecht vs FC Utrecht (6) over 2.5 goals 

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Viking Stavanger vs Haugesund (6) 2-1 

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