TFT Issue 3249!

Slaven Koprivnica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb 

KO: 16:00 (UK time)

I can’t quite fathom the rising odds on the visitors here, folks – I really can’t. Slaven Koprivnica’s form guide in Croatia this season is mostly borne out of facing the top teams at the start, and they played bloody well in most of those games anyway. Since then, they’ve faced more beatable opponents, and have won both games 5-1 and 2-1 respectively. This isn’t a coincidence. It’s not a perfect team, but it’s one with a very strong attack that should not be underestimated, especially not at their beloved Gradski.

True enough, the bookies do know about Slaven Koprivnica’s consistency when it comes to doing well in home games. It’s been that way for years now, back to when they really did have a good team. Nowadays, they’re not as good, largely because of financial issues, and the support that the clubs ahead of them get. They’re still a tough side to beat though, and one that does possess amazing powers of survival in home games, something that the bookies are sadly aware of.

However, I don’t think that they’ve given Slaven Koprivnica their due respect for tonight’s match. With the drifting odds in mind, you might even get 4/5 on the home win tonight, which is a steal. It wouldn’t be if you looked at the Prva Liga table for the past few years, but it is right now. The home team has found a formula that suits them, and that works. Their opponents have been cast to the wind by parent club Dinamo Zagreb, and now find themselves horribly short of attacking quality. Truth be told, finishing seventh would be a dream for Lokomotiva Zagreb this season, and this has been said about a team that justifiably expects to be in the battle for a UEFA Europa League spot.

Like I said above though, Lokomotiva Zagreb have been left behind by Dinamo Zagreb now. Bear in mind that, for as long as I can remember, Dinamo Zagreb has generally loaned Lokomotiva Zagreb anything between ten and twenty players. The general approach has been that Dinamo Zagreb sell anybody that they receive an offer for, and then recall whatever replacement fits the bill from their loan spell at Lokomotiva Zagreb. They also sign a young replacement, and loan them to Lokomotiva Zagreb in preparation for the next time it happens. This season is different though. I’m aware that the noose around Mamic’s neck is tightening, and perhaps the club are feeling the heat of such, especially with Lokomotiva Zagreb getting into Europe quite often now. The last thing UEFA wants in their competition is the “B” team of another club in European competition – they were upset enough when Red Bull had both Salzburg and RB Leipzig in Europe together for the first time!

Anyway, whatever the case may be, Lokomotiva Zagreb have been left without much quality this season. The parent club has already recalled striker Cuze, making Lokomotiva Zagreb’s striker situation even worse with Budimir over the hill, Jelavic predictably injured, and Tuci struggling for maturity. A solution is never far away for Lokomotiva Zagreb, really. The general consensus is that they’ll be just peachy in due course. For now though, they lack quality in attack, and it should be very apparent after going almost three weeks without kicking a ball – and even then it was in a draw against part-timers Gaj in the Cup! 

They still have some good players, Lokomotiva Zagreb, but most are in defence, namely Kolinger and Karacic, and Djira has impressed too. The quality of Pivaric and Sammir has always been very evident in the past but they struggle to impress nowadays with Pivaric lacking fitness, and Sammir lacking a balanced diet. It’s just not a very good team right now, to be frank. They may frustrate teams for a while, but they generally don’t do enough in the final third, and more of the same can be expected in Croatia tonight. Let’s also not forget that 4-6 players have only just returned to the team after Covid-19, and some are likely to still be out.

Slaven Koprivnica have a good attack, as I said earlier. Krstanovic is a real powerhouse in attack, still banging goals in for fun, and with Boakye and Etoundi supporting him, it’s not hard to see why. Glavcic has had a fine campaign, Paracki and Bacelic-Grgic aren’t far behind, and the team will be even more effective if/when Suarez adapts. Still, they’re fast, they’re experienced, and they’re good finishers, and that’s why I like Slaven Koprivnica, especially at home. I think they can do some serious damage to a very predictable Lokomotiva Zagreb tonight.

Therefore, I’ve got to back the hosts to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 71/50.

Verdict: Slaven Koprivnica to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 71/50.

HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

It’s D-Day in the Faroe Islands because anything but an away win ends the title race as HB Torshavn are currently eight points clear of NSI Runavik with three games remaining. The problem is that NSI Runavik are not going to encounter an attack-minded HB Torshavn here. Most teams at this level just have a go at one another, hence the high-scoring nature of the Betrideildin. However, HB Torshavn are the best tactical side I’ve seen from this country in years. They’re quite happy to sit back and contain teams, and they’re very good at it. A draw is enough for them here, so why would they take unnecessary risks? I don’t see it.

No, this game should be about NSI Runavik trying to break them down, and as good as the visitors can be, I can see them struggling. Again, HB Torshavn are a bit too smart, and NSI Runavik themselves do prefer to control games. From the top five Betrideildin teams, it’s Vikingur Gota, KI, and B36 Torshavn that play the more open attacking football; the other two are able to play more intelligently. I think NSI Runavik look knackered at the moment though. I can’t fault a team for having the mental fortitude to win difficult games, but they’re making all of their games hard right now by not taking chances well enough, and not controlling games well enough. That isn’t going to be enough to beat HB Torshavn though.

The only hope the visitors have got is midfielder Peter Knudsen, who is superb. It’s not even the goals that he’s notched up this season, but the way he scores them. The deft chip against Vikingur Gota last time out was a thing of beauty, for example. He could perhaps win this one for the visitors alongside clinical Kari Olsen, of course. Is that enough to win in the capital, though, something they seldom manage? I don’t see it, not based off of their recent displays, which have been tired and erratic.

Let’s be fair, though – HB Torshavn have hardly been amazing lately. They, too, look tired, and have been grinding out wins. The difference is that HB Torshavn have more players that can turn it on and kill a game stone dead, though. Jakobsen and Dahl have been brilliant in attack, and the former is still fresh. Wonderkid Justinussen is still brilliant, and his time out with injury in summer means he’s still fresh too. Nygaard, Petersen, I Soylu – they’re all very capable. Dalbud has been pushed back into defence alongside Johansen, Wardum etc. and is perfectly at home there. Honestly, it’s a brilliant squad that HB Torshavn have assembled. They can’t be stopped, I’m afraid, and whether it’s today or in the coming weeks, they will win the title; of that I can assure you.

The home team are only missing young midfielder Chukwudi today after his rash red card last time out, which nearly cost the league leaders three points in Argir, a late strike from Jakobsen turning an embarrassing 2-2 draw into a lucky 3-2 win. You always get the impression that HB Torshavn can step it up a gear if they need to, though. That’s what makes them soon-to-be-champions. It’s arguably better to face them now than usual, but the same can be said of NSI Runavik. I think we’ll see a very nervy, tactical affair between the two best teams in the country today, and I don’t expect it to open up until the second-half. Therefore, backing under 3 goals at 26/25 makes sense to me.

Verdict: Under 3 goals at 26/25.

Osnabruck vs Darmstadt 98 

KO: 17:30 (UK time)

I thought Darmstadt 98 were really unlucky not to win against St. Pauli lately. They did more than enough to make it happen but lost their concentration at the end, which is unusual for them. Still, they did make a lot of changes as the game drew to a conclusion, upsetting their rhythm, and not starting with Palsson was far from ideal too. They’re getting a lot right in general though, Darmstadt 98, and that’s what encourages me to trust them tonight.

Underestimating Darmstadt 98 is quite common at this level. I’ve been guilty of it myself in the past too. Few teams work harder than they do, though – that’s one hell of a weapon here. Mentally, they’re phenomenally strong, Darmstadt 98. All they’ve lacked over the years is quality. I was quite excited to see what was coming when they added Icelandic enforcer Palsson to their ranks, who has massively improved his team’s ability to annoy opponents, and to keep the ball. Pre-season, they added even more quality, bringing in Mai, Rapp, Stanilewicz, and forgotten man Seydel, not to mention fending off Derby County’s interest in poacher Dursun.

This team is only going to get better with time, I promise you. They’ve got some seriously talented kids on their books now, all on loan from Bundesliga clubs. Seydel finally made his debut last time out, making a five minute cameo. I daresay he’s not fit enough to last ninety minutes at the moment, given how long he’s been out for, but don’t underestimate just how good this fella is at this level. There’s a reason that SC Freiburg kept hold of him for as long as they did, and it’s because they recognised his potential to play in the Bundesliga. His fitness was too problematic in the end, but this guy is fast, massive, and as good on the floor as he is in the air, whether you play him through the middle or out on the left. Palsson should get back into the starting eleven soon enough too.

There’s a lot to like about this team, to be frank. Like I said earlier, they’ve got more to offer than I’ve seen from them in years, and fusing that with natural workmanlike displays can only lead to good things, sooner or later. I think this team has played really well against good sides so far this season, and have only lacked a bit of luck both on and off the pitch. I think this is a dangerous side nowadays; one that, fitness permitting, could push for promotion. I wouldn’t bank on it, but worse teams than this have been promoted in the past. They’ve got a lot of what it takes, Darmstadt 98, and a lot of experienced heads too so let’s see what transpires, shall we?

The bookies are right to make the visitors favourites here, and not just because of the good things they’ve done, but also because their hosts have made significant losses this season. They’ve lost their manager – who built this team, and got them promoted to the Bundesliga 2 in the first place – as well as their best attacker Alvarez, and best creator Ouahim. Backup striker Girth left for Holstein Kiel (more relevant because of Alvarez’s departure), fellow striker Ceesay returned to Switzerland after his loan deal expired, and most recently midfield all-rounder Heyer left to join his former manager at Hamburger SV in a desperate poy for them to discover some kind of pride and work ethic in their squad.

Ultimately, about half of Osnabruck’s setup of last season has now gone. They have made some signings, some better than others with talented Venezuelan poacher Santos having been scoring goals for fun, but fellow new attacker Bapoh having not even debutised because of injury. Veteran attacker Heider misses out tonight, which is far from ideal with the above information in mind. Santos is still the main man, of course, but this team needs as much consistency as it can muster, and there’s not a lot to work with right now for obvious reasons.

I do think Osnabruck have battled like warriors this season, though. That much about them has not changed, and I respect it. They’ve not had easy games this season, but they have faced teams at opportune times though. I mean, Greuther Furth away as underdogs after they lost Keita-Ruel, their best weapon for getting in behind defences? A new-look Hannover 96 at home? A Heidenheim side that has lost at least three of its best players this season? Still not easy games, so credit to Osnabruck, but they were good times to face such teams, as I said.

I think tonight’s game is the most ‘bad luck’ draw they’ve had this season, Osnabruck. They’re going to need to score goals in order to deal with an impressive Darmstadt 98, and I’m not sure where they’ll come from unless Santos gets more service. It’s possible, but unlikely, and the Darmstadt 98 attack looks far more intimidating right now. With that in mind, backing the away win at 5/4 really appeals to me here. Let’s not forget that the visitors have had a day longer to prepare for this game too.

Verdict: Darmstadt 98 to win at 5/4.

Vikingur Gota vs KI

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

In stark contrast to the other Faroese game tonight, I expect a very entertaining match here. Vikingur Gota need little encouragement to be an attacking team anyway, and the fact that they’ve nothing left to gain or lose should only encourage them to test their mettle versus a superior KI. KI need something from this game, though. The Logmanssteypid is yet to be determined so it’s time to focus on a good Betrideildin finish, and that means either passing NSI Runavik (who face top team HB Torshavn away from home tonight) or simply staying ahead of B36 Torshavn. They’re not in a position to play for a draw though, KI, and they are good enough to pick up the three points.

Nothing about the visitors here makes me believe in them doing a professional job tonight though. They’ve been very lax in recent matches for one reason or another, almost always allowing teams into games that they had no right to be in. EB/Streymur, IF, and B36 Torshavn all found it easy to score against them lately. To be fair, KI have played a lot of games, especially as part of their heroic European campaign, and a bit of fatigue is only natural.

The quality that KI have means that they’re absolutely right to be 1/2 to win this match. With a fitter squad, I’d not hesitate in backing the visitors to handicap their hosts here because Vikingur Gota simply give too many chances away against…well, everyone. This is not a perfect KI though, and they’re not playing perfectly either. They’ve got some of the biggest players in the Faroe Islands on their books so they always have a route to goal, KI, but I’ve lost some faith in their ability to contain teams, and that can be fatal against crazy Vikingur Gota.

Klettskard, Midtskogen, Danielsen, Johannesen, and especially Bjartalid – they’re not going to be able to be contained by a team that doesn’t try to defend. Don’t forget how good Pavlovic and Faero are from set pieces too! There are few teams that Vikingur Gota fail against more than KI too, so they know the dangers that the Klaksvik team brings into this match. Vikingur Gota don’t change their tactics for anyone, though. They want to attack, they want to score goals, and it’s all they’re good at, so I see no changes coming tonight.

Maybe they’ll get lucky tonight; who can say? It’s a good time to face KI, and they have nothing to lose. I’d like to think that Polish former-striker-now-winger Cieslewicz would like to give his club a good send-off, given that he’s recently announced that he’ll be joining HB Torshavn next season, which bodes ominously for the rest of the division. With Justinussen having proven he can stay fit now, I would not be surprised to see him move on either as he’s a lethal poacher. Vikingur Gota wouldn’t complain, though – they’ve had their money’s worth out of the duo, and they’ve still got the beautiful beard of Andreas Olsen to look at in times of trouble! 

In all seriousness, Vikingur Gota do need to cast an eye to the future though. Star creator Vatnhamar is not getting any younger, and there’s little to keep top players at their club other than their attractive playing style, which a lot of Faroese clubs boast. For now though, they’ve got the most ruthless finishers they’ve had in years, and good support acts. That’s enough for me to trust them to participate in high-scoring games. Well, that and their inability to defend well, even with the beast that is Gregersen still at the heart of their back four. They’re going to have a go at KI tonight, and you’re a braver man than I am if you intend on backing either team to win with the current circumstances in mind.

Backing over 3.5 goals at 4/5 simply makes sense though, especially with three out of their last five meetings cruising over 3.5 goals. 

Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 4/5.

Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Zenit St. Petersburg

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

My initial thoughts were to back goals here. It’s a really good Zenit St. Petersburg side, led well by Semak, against a generally overrated Bv09 Borussia Dortmund. The scope was there – well, at least until I saw the team news!

Unlike the masses, I’m not too fussed about Malcom still being injured. For me, he’s still got a lot to prove. I think he left Girondins de Bordeaux way too early, and that he hasn’t developed enough mentally yet to be considered a special talent, although he’s obviously still capable of deciding games in Russia. No, it’s the absence of Iranian star Azmoun that is the problem here. He’s the one that glues their attack together, ensuring that Dzyuba is never too isolated, and that the wingers have enough space to get crosses into the box via both his passing and movement. He’s one of two players that they simply cannot replace, the other being deep-lying midfielder Barrios.

Without those two star attackers, Zenit St. Petersburg look a lot more ordinary, and honestly a little too wet behind the ears. They’re used to seeing a lot of the ball, Zenit St. Petersburg – that’s what tends to stop them from conceding too many goals. That’s not going to happen tonight though. Favre’s setup involves his team seeing more of the ball than their opponents, and I see no reason for that to not be the case here. Without the ball, Zenit St. Petersburg struggle. Even their defenders were brought in to be more helpful in attack than in defence with the sole exception of Lovren. Put them under pressure, and watch Zenit St. Petersburg buckle against a good team. Most Russian Premier League sides don’t punish them for the chances they give away, but European teams will, just as Club Brugge did last week.

Furthermore, the news from the Zenit St. Petersburg camp this week is that they’re considering bringing in Pochettino to replace Semak. I cannot begin to tell you how dumbfounded I am that they could be stupid enough to even consider. How many top-drawer foreign managers have rocked up in St. Petersburg over the years and failed to deliver because they’ve no idea how to get the best out of the Russias? A lot! Now they’ve finally got someone that knows how to dominate the Premier League, and just because of defeats against Rubin Kazan and Club Brugge, suddenly they want to revert back to a foreign manager. I just can’t believe how stupid these guys are sometimes, honestly. Semak is the best thing to happen to this club in a long, long time.

So, yeah – not an ideal time for the trip to Germany. Zenit St. Petersburg’s defending is going to cause them real issues here because it’s seldom probed like it will be tonight, and Bv09 Borussia Dortmund are usually very clinical finishers, especially Haaland. They enter this game with a morale-boosting derby win over a shocking Schalke 04 side, something that was sorely needed after Ciro Immobile repeatedly pulled their pants down last week. I still maintain that Favre is the right man to lead this club, and that he’s done a lot of good for them since he took over. This project takes time though, especially as their challenge is to compete with Bayern Munich – and you’ve all seen how good the Bavarians are.

For me, Favre has done well. I still want to see more defenders – it’s time for Hummels to go now – a good goalkeeper, a backup striker, more wing-back options (particularly on the right), and a far more consistent version of overrated Dahoud. Once they do that, they should be set to cause teams more problems than they currently do. Like most teams, they have weaknesses, Bv09 Borussia Dortmund. Without Azmoun and Malcom though, I’m inclined to believe that the away team are not able to expose them particularly well here.

Instead, I expect Witsel to dictate the tempo against his former club, and that’ll mean that they’re able to control the game in general, use their speed well, and hurt Zenit St. Petersburg’s unconvincing defence. I may not rate the home team as highly as most do but I still think they’re well-equipped to deal some devastating damage to Zenit St. Petersburg here. Their tricky wide creators just need a bit more composure in the final third before I take the team more seriously again because some of them are just a bit too young at this point, especially Reyna. Still, their problems pale in comparison to those of their opponents, and I can see the Germans running away with the game for that reason.

For me, backing Bv09 Borussia Dortmund to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 99/100 makes sense.

Verdict: Bv09 Borussia Dortmund to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap at 99/100.

Club Brugge vs SS Lazio 

KO: 20:00  (UK time)

I’m curious to see what transpires here. I suspected Zenit St. Petersburg would have a tough game against Club Brugge last week, and so it proved with the Belgians winning 2-1 in Russia. I expect a similarly tough night for SS Lazio, although I do expect the Italians to be more prepared to deal with Club Brugge’s athleticism than the Russians were, purely by virtue of encountering it more.

Club Brugge’s only real problem, as ever, is putting the ball in the net. They’ve got more than enough speed and stamina to upset most teams at this level, ironically even more effectively than they do in the Eerste Klasse. I’m pleased to see people have stopped over-hyping Nigerian forward Dennis now he’s not been amongst the goals much. He’s just a small part of a very dangerous Club Brugge attack that seems to know no fear. Being able to enter most games at this level as underdogs suits them too, given their scope for scoring goals on the break.

They’re not perfect, the Belgian heavyweights, but they’re dangerous. They look very sharp when playing in Europe too. Keeping a clean sheet is a bit too unrealistic for them at this level, but scoring enough goals to get something from tough games really isn’t. Purely by virtue of the number of chances this team impressively carves out in each encounter, they tend to find the net rather consistently, Club Brugge. I’d be very curious to see them play with a natural poacher because they’d be incredibly dangerous.

This is a confident group of players, though. Each of them knows their ability, and each of them consistently plays with a point to prove. I like their overlapping, the firepower that exists in midfield, and the speed they have in their attack. Again, there simply is no such thing as an easy match against Club Brugge, and that’s especially true for occasions when they have a full complement of fans supporting them. That’s not the case tonight for obvious reasons, but this is still a team I expect to cause the likes of SS Lazio problems, whether they get something from the match or not.

Under Inzaghi, SS Lazio are clever. Far too many folk underestimated them against Bv09 Borussia Dortmund last week for reasons beyond my comprehension. Presumably they thought that the Romans were just a flash in the pan but no, Inzaghi’s project is just getting started. He’s done terrifically well there, and this team will only get stronger as time goes by. They don’t rashly spend their money, and Inzaghi gets the most out of each player at this level. Underestimating them is pretty damn stupid, in my opinion. By no means are the Italians perfect, but they’re made to do well in Europe with their comfort on the ball.

Most of the visitors’ absentees are back now, which is helpful. They’ve struggled quite a bit lately for that reason. SS Lazio do not have a massive squad so their European adventure is definitely going to take its toll on them at some stage. I thought they looked a bit ropey when trying to hold onto their lead at home against Bologna at weekend too. They still won, and weren’t short of opportunities to kill the game off, but they just seem to run out of steam a bit earlier than they did last season.

The firepower of SS Lazio makes them a dangerous opponent though, and they’ve got plenty of insight into the Eerste Klasse opponents from players like Milinkovic-Savic. Logically speaking, SS Lazio should edge this one, really. I’m just not sure that they’re fit enough nor playing well enough to be trusted to do so. I trust them to score at least once, but I don’t see them leaving Belgium with a clean sheet. I think both teams need to view this as a must-win game, looking at their remaining fixtures, and that should be enough to tip the balance in favour of over 2.5 goals here.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5. 

Juventus vs Barcelona CF 

KO: 20:00  (UK time)

Far, far too many folk are jumping on the visitors here. I appreciate that Pirlo’s start as manager has been inauspicious, to say the least, but I still think they’re miles ahead of a seriously overrated Barcelona CF.

With Juventus, the problem is that they’re not killing games off when they have the opportunity to do so, largely because Ronaldo has been out – and is still a doubt, even now. They’re using the ball well enough, albeit a bit too slowly at times for my liking, and they do need to get some defenders fit again with de Ligt having not played a game for them this season, and Bonucci only played in some games. I have no problem with their squad as a whole though. I think it’s a couple of minor tweaks that they need; not a major overhaul.

Juventus are still scoring goals, at least. Let’s be fair to them – Ronaldo and Dybala have both been out, Chiesa is still getting used to his new surroundings, and Morata has only just returned to Italy. These things don’t happen overnight. I still don’t have any real issues with Juventus being good on the ball, making chances, and generally being annoying to face. This is an experienced and mostly settled squad that are slowly easing into the Pirlo groove. I can accept that they may draw tonight; that’s far from an impossibility. This team losing at home against Barcelona CF would really, really surprise me though. I think they’re too good, and too experienced for that.

I think a good team might view this as a fine opportunity to face Juventus, but I’m honestly struggling to class Barcelona CF as a good team nowadays, not when they continually get things wrong. I mean, Koeman as manager? Are we seriously going to pretend that that’s a smart move? He’s a legend at the club; I get that. His bullying managerial style will do nothing for these primadonnas though, as far calmer, more placid managers before him have proved. Not only that, but he’s hardly improved the quality of the squad since joining, only seemingly wanting to bring players in that won’t really improve it anyway, even those that didn’t join.

I mean, just what are Barcelona CF doing? They’ve made it abundantly clear that they do not want Griezmann, Dembele, and Coutinho over the past twelve months to two years, and yet all three are still getting into their squad. Braithwaite is there; can’t get my head around that. Kids like Pedri and Fati have played five games apiece at seventeen years of age. Seriously? That’s a lot of pressure to put on them when they’re still learning. Trincao doesn’t look ready for top level football. Umtiti is never going to be the defender most people seem to think he already is, and not just because he’s never fit. They get overrun in midfield too easily nowadays, and it’s too easy to score against them, especially with ter Stegen still out. The list goes on, honestly.

Messi is there; I get it. He’s brilliant. He’s not God, though, and his return of one goal in five appearances is indicative of the ailing quality around him, not his own lessening ability. There’s no depth here, and a manager who has seldom convinced me in the past that he can do a job like this. I’ve not been impressed with Los Cules this season, and their weekend defeat against out-of-sorts Real Madrid was not a surprise at all. What surprised me is how easy the capital club found it to contain Barcelona CF in that game, really. Every challenge Barcelona CF face under Koeman, they seem ill-prepared for – and that’s not a coincidence. He’s simply not a very good manager. He was the perfect fit for Netherlands because they’re quite happy to be shouted at by him. Not Barcelona CF, though. They need an arm around the shoulder, and they ain’t getting one any time soon.

Factoring in that the visitors are not just without ter Stegen, but also their best defender Pique, fellow centre-back Umtiti (shocker!), and playmaker Coutinho, I have to view the visitors’ problems as being far more severe than those of their hosts. Juventus are at least working from a solid foundation. Barcelona CF need to start over again, and Koeman is not the man to do it. They look disjointed, ineffectual, and suspect, the away team, and Juventus should not fail to punish them for it tonight.

Verdict: Juventus to win with draw no bet at 83/100.