TFT Issue 3251!

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Bankers

General Information

We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.

Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.

Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.

Banker

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Montana 

KO: (UK time)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv are one of the most efficient Bulgarian A PFG teams around right now. Plovdiv clubs are notoriously strong at home anyway, and given that they’re hosting lowly Montana with striker Iliev rolling back the years like he has been, I’ve got to trust in the home win today.

Verdict: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win at 2/5.

Featured game

Vejle vs Randers

KO: (UK time)

You know, I thought Vejle would struggle at Aalborg BK earlier this week. It’s the first time this season where I can genuinely say that I thought they’d be outsmarted because Aalborg BK can be very good on the ball because of their midfielders. Vejle’s quality lies in when they have the ball; without it, they’re a bit too vulnerable for my liking. So, yeah – not a good team for Vejle to face. However, Vejle continued to astound the Superligaen by befuddling their hosts, winning 2-1 in the process. I thought they’d do well this season, Vejle, but not as well as they have done.

So here they are, the newly-promoted team, sat at the top of the ladder. I would be pretty damn amazed if they were still there six months from now – or even six weeks from now – but they’re certainly making the most of the early season malaise shown by other teams. For example, Brondby have played well but haven’t defended well enough, FC Midtjylland have been focusing on Europe, and FC Copenhagen have already changed managers. Still, credit must be given where it’s due. Few teams are promoted to this league with any kind of intent to push for Europe, never mind stay up – but Vejle have a plan, and it’s working.

I couldn’t say that their plan is all that complex or unique, either. It’s just that most Danish teams don’t spend the kind of money they did pre-season. They’ve been clever with it, though – I’ll give them that. Normally, in such situations, teams are inclined to just buy attackers in a bid to outscore teams. Vejle have spent money in attack, bringing in Ghana’s Dwamena, who is far too good for this level – and it shows. Allan Sousa has bagged most of their goals this season, but Dwamena is the essential one for me. With those two, impressive Albanian youngster Mucolli, and even Henrique (out tonight) as backup, they’ve got options. 

In midfield, they’ve got last season’s heroes in Sweden’s Montiel and Albania’s Ramadani. The latter’s fellow countryman Hetemi has played more often, and new Iranian midfield controller Eztolahi (yet another that is too good for this level) ensures that they see enough of the ball to trouble their opponents. In defence, the idea is that Milosevic and Ojala will be the centre-back pairing, and I love that notion because they’re both good, experienced, and alert. They’ve got a lot right, Vejle, and their performances this season perfectly reflect such.

There’s a good combination of what was already there plus what has arrived, and the cohesion is there for all to see. They look confident, they’re creating chances readily, and even falling behind has not fazed the newcomers. They’re not perfect, but they got a lot more right than most, at least for now. I’m sure they’ll have bad runs this season, like all teams do, but there are no signs of it being soon. This is a good attacking team with a great deal of flair players and natural playmakers, not to mention good finishers. Dealing with them is really hard, and it’s something I can’t imagine Randers doing right now.

I think this is a good test for Vejle though. Although they’re not in the mixer for actually winning silverware, Randers are the kind of team that can be found rather commonly at this level in the sense that they’re battlers, they’re consistent, and they are mentally strong. They tend to find themselves without quality more than with it, but when they do have it, they’re a real handful. This season, I’m not so convinced by the Randers squad. I opposed them with SonderjyskE last time out, and the fact that the visitors beat them despite having ten men tells you that they’re not that hard to beat if you focus and work hard. Vejle can do that, hopefully with eleven men!

Like I said for their last game, I’m just not sure what Randers’ purported route to goal is this season. It seems like they’re going to leave it all down to Kamara, which is not ideal. I like the guy, and he’s a handful, but he’s not a good finisher. They’ve clearly plumped for brawn and speed up top rather than finesse, and without the right level of support, it’s going to expose them as a weak team in attack. They don’t have enough in midfield, though! I mean, you can look at the games they’ve lost this season and say that they’ve had hard games – true, but that’s never stopped Randers from being competitive before. They’ve stopped themselves from being competitive this season by not signing players in the right areas, and that’s why they’ve failed to score against both FC Nordsjaelland, or even against SonderjyskE when their opponents were down to ten men.

As is always the case, Randers are no more than a couple of players away from being very competitive in terms of where the points go; they’re naturally competitive on the pitch anyway. However, until those signings arrive, I can’t really take them seriously, and it genuinely surprises me to be able to say that as I class Randers as a very smart team that uses their limited funding wisely. This season, though, their squad does nothing for me. They’re not making life easy for their opponents, but they’re still losing games. Playing that way against prolific Vejle looks to have a touch of inevitability about it, really.

Therefore, I’ve got to back the home win at 13/10 here.

Verdict: Vejle to win at 5/4.

Additional games

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Heidenheim

KO: (UK time)

A lot of folk are backing Heidenheim tonight, and I am not surprised by that. Fortuna Dusseldorf have struggled since being relegated to the Bundesliga 2 because, week after week, they’re playing without half of their squad for one season or another. Tonight’s game is not an exception either. I’m not bold enough to trust Heidenheim to that extent, I’m afraid, but I do recognise that the visitors are more likely to win this game than their hosts, at least for the present time.

As admirable as the Heidenheim mentalities are, the brutal reality is that this team is still without three of their best players of last season. That makes them less trustworthy, and their form guide supports why that is. It’s been easier to score against them than usual, and harder for them to take the chances that they’ve created. They’ve still usually managed to find the net, partially thanks to new recruit Kuhlwetter, who has bagged two goals already this season. I’ve just found them to be lacking in cohesion, which is perfectly understandable, all things considered.

I think they’re only a goal-scorer and a centre-back away from being a team that can push for promotion again because they’ve got enough of the right attitudes in their squad to succeed, and they’re not at all short of creativity. I mean, Kerschbaumer and Schnatterer are both very good at this level, although it’s Mohr that has captured the attention of most so far this season. Schmidt has been in charge of this club for a long time now, which is how he’s always able to get that extra 10% out of them. There’s always a good ‘feel’ to Heidenheim, you know? I never doubt their mentality; only their effectiveness when it comes to winning games.

They are conceding too many goals, though, and they’re not playing clinically enough. That means that I doubt them when backing them to beat Fortuna Dusseldorf away from home, even when their hosts are as injury-ravaged as they are. At the end of the day, Fortuna Dusseldorf can still count on Hennings, Sobottka, Pledl, and Zimmer, and that’s enough for them to do something at this level. Not enough for me to trust them to win, but enough for me to doubt Heidenheim.

I actually think Rosler and his boys are in a really good position to push for a quick return to the Bundesliga this season. They’ve been relegated with a very settled and capable squad that has suffered minimum disruption to it pre-season. However, they’ve suffered so many injuries, Covid-19 situations, and boatloads of other things since the season begun that they’ve not been able to name the same starting eleven twice. I should be waxing lyrical about this team has managed to pick up a seriously talented Russian goalkeeper – Mitryushkin – on a free transfer this week, but instead I find myself wondering how they’re going to put together some kind of defence.

They’re still capable of hurting teams, Fortuna Dusseldorf, but they concede too many too. A Danso-inspired defence should not scare them in the slightest, but their own defence should. Therefore, I find it very difficult to anticipate what will happen here, at least in terms of a 1×2 market. It really does depend which attack shows up the best here, as obvious as that may sound. 

Therefore, I’ve got to expect this to be a pretty open game, as most Bundesliga 2 encounters are. If that is indeed the case, then backing over 2.5 goals at 19/20 makes sense.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 19/20.

Team news

Note

All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Racing Genk – Heynen is absent.
AS Eupen – Cools is absent. Baby is a doubt.

Danish Superligaen:

Vejle – Henrique is absent.
Randers – No absentees.

English Premier League:

Wolverhampton Wanderers Jonny is absent.
Crystal Palace – Ward and Mitchell are doubts. Tomkins, McCarthy, and Cahill are absent. Ayew and Butland return.

German Bundesliga;

Schalke 04 – Fahrmann, Kabak, and S. Serdar are absent. Uth and Ludewig are doubts.
VfB Stuttgart – Ailton, Anton, Awoudja, Grahl, Mavropanos, Mola, and Thommy are absent. Gonzalez returns. Wamangituka and Endo are doubts. 

German Bundesliga 2:

Fortuna Dusseldorf – Appelkamp, Buhler, Gorka, Hatherz, Koutris, Iyoha, Kownacki, Krajnc, Mitryushkin, Prib, Morales, and M. Zimmermann are absent.
Heidenheim – Burnic and Husing are absent.
Hamburger SV – Jatta, Kwarteng, Mickel, and van Drongelen are absent.
St. Pauli – Brodersen, Buchtmann, Coordes, Burgstaller, Kuyucu, Miyaichi, Senger, Viet, and Wieckhoff are absent.

Portuguese Liga 1:

Pacos de Ferreira – Silva and Sualehe are doubts.
FC Porto – Mbaye and Marcano are absent. Luis Diaz is a doubt.

Spanish Primera Liga:

Eibar – Cubero and Valdes Diaz are absent. Recio and Bigas are doubts.
Cadiz – Quezada is absent. Carcelen and Mauro are doubts.

Swiss Challenge League:

FC Thun – Castroman is absent.
Aarau – Balaj, Hajdari, Lujic, Peralta, Thaler, and Schindelholz are absent. Aratore and Verboom are doubts.

Turkish Super Lig:

Fatih Karagumruk – Durmaz, Sabo, Arveladze, and Jorquera are absent.
BB Erzurumspor – Karakullukçu and Kanak are absent.
Trabzonspor – Ekuban, Tepe, Turkmen, and Trondsen are absent.
Kasimpasa – Brecka, Jeanvier, Koomson, and Gohou are absent. 

Remaining thoughts

Note

The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Racing Genk vs AS Eupen (6) 2-1

Bulgarian A PFG:

Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia (6) 2-1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Montana (7) 1-0

Danish Superligaen:

Vejle vs Randers (6) over 2.5 goals

English Premier League:

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Crystal Palace (6) 1-1

German Bundesliga:

Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart (4) 1-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Heidenheim (5) 1-2
Hamburger SV vs St. Pauli (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game

Portuguese Liga 1:

Pacos de Ferreira vs FC Porto (6) 0-1

Portuguese Liga 2:

Estoril vs Cova de Piedade (6) 2-0

Spanish Primera Liga:

Eibar vs Cadiz (6) 1-0

Swiss Challenge League:

FC Thun vs Aarau (5) over 2.5 goals

Turkish Super Lig:

Fatih Karagumruk vs BB Erzurumspor (5) 2-2
Trabzonspor vs Kasimpasa (5) 2-1

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