TFT Issue 3252!

Eintracht Braunschweig vs Nurnberg 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

I’ve been genuinely disappointed with Eintracht Braunschweig this season. They promised so much pre-season, and are hardly strangers to Bundesliga 2 level, but have really let themselves down in most games. Their recent victory over VfL Bochum demonstrated what they’re capable of, but then getting pumped 3-0 by Jahn Regensburg showed their problems. I like the Jahn Regensburg squad of this season, especially in an attacking sense, but Eintracht Braunschweig are simply getting too much wrong right now.

Personally, I thought that bringing Nigerian attacker Abdullahi into their squad would sort them out, but no, he’s yet to score for them in the Bundesliga 2; only in the DFB Pokal. They’ve got good enough creators, especially in Polish star Kobylanski, but nobody is taking their chances. The knock-on effect of such is reduced confidence throughout the squad, and their defence – which is their weakest area anyway – has suffered even more than usual. The ball isn’t sticking as well, and decision-making has gotten poorer. I know Eintracht Braunschweig are capable of more than this, but unless they prove it on the pitch, what does it matter? At the moment, they only look like losing games, and they’re up against a good team today.

Nurnberg need to get their heads into gear, though. Their pre-season signings in conjunction with the lads already in their squad should ensure that they’re pushing for promotion. However, every time I watch them play, I see them doing too much stupid shit at the back. Their attack, I have no issues with. Yeah, Misidjan is injured – again – but Schaffler as target man works well, and he’s got an awful lot of support from some seriously talented midfielders. Scoring goals is not hard for this team. I mean, even Geis takes a wicked free-kick, and he’s ‘supposed’ to be the defensive one!

On paper, that defence of Nurnberg’s looks quite good, but the reality shows that they’re still some distance away from being entirely trustworthy. I saw it in their 1-0 win against SV Sandhausen a while back, and I was mystified how they kept a clean sheet in that game. Their luck has ran out since then, conceding too frequently, even if not often enough to lose. Handwerker, Margreitter, and Sorensen should be able to get this defence into shape but it’s just not happened yet. I’m entirely unsure what Klauss is doing with them in training, but the defence needs work. Let me put it another way; if they weren’t facing an out-of-sorts Eintracht Braunschweig today, I probably wouldn’t back them to win.

Still, they are facing Eintracht Braunschweig, and at odd of 6/5, backing the visitors to win the game is worth the risk because that attack of theirs should really blow their hosts into oblivion.

Verdict: Nurnberg to win at 6/5.

Osnabruck vs SV Sandhausen 

KO: 12:00 (UK time)

In general, SV Sandhausen have performed well this season. Why they insist on conceding as they do though I don’t know. That was the first area they truly mastered, going back a couple of years. They had a brilliant defend deep/counter fast combination going on. Now, though? They’re almost too attack-minded, and it ends up costing them.

Fortunately – for them and us – they’re up against Osnabruck, who look a far cry from the team they were last season. To be fair, that was to be expected – they changed manager pre-season (not by choice), lost lots of key players, and have had to make do with what they could find, which wasn’t a lot. I watched their mid-week game against Darmstadt 98, and I’ve still no idea how Osnabruck got something from it. They had one brief period in the middle of the second-half where they tested the goalkeeper twice, and then scored. Other than that, they did absolutely nothing to Darmstadt 98, and that pattern has been pretty prevalent this season.

They did play mid-week though, the home team, meaning that today’s match is their third in six days, which they just don’t have the squad for. I’d have doubted them doing it last season, no matter how impressive Ouahim and co. were. I doubt them even more with a seriously limited and somewhat predictable squad. Aside from the ruthless Santos up front, today’s hosts offer nothing that bother me, and nothing that should bother SV Sandhausen. Defeat Osnabruck’s work-rate, and you defeat them – and SV Sandhausen do know how to outfight teams.

Despite the absence of midfielders like Halimi and Esswein, both of which are attacking, the visitors still have very good attacking options at their disposal, not to a far fresher, fitter squad. They’ve got a very good line-leader in Keita-Ruel, who will always make something happen whether with assistance or by himself, and with Nartey and ex-Osnabruck man Ouahim both impressing since moving to SV Sandhausen in the summer, I have to expect the visitors to carry on threatening in attack, even though I would always prefer that Esswein and Halimi were available. I shouldn’t really forget Bouhaddouz either, who is a clever forward.

This is a very good SV Sandhausen team, basically. I do want them to perfect the art of both attacking and defending at the same time though; they always seem to be better at one than the other, SV Sandhausen. Finding a balance is key to them being the dark horses I tipped them to be at the start of the season. Still, this attack of theirs is very hard to contain, and it’ll carry them through most Bundesliga 2 matches. That, fused with fresher legs, and a natural tenacity, should not only ensure that they don’t lose today, but that they stand a good chance of winning; a better one than the bookies have given them leastways.

For me, the away win with draw no bet cover at evens is worth taking.

Verdict: SV Sandhausen to win with draw no bet at evens.

Spartak Moscow vs FK Rostov

KO: 13:30 (UK time)

As I’ve said a fair amount in recent times, I do like what Spartak Moscow have done now that they’ve actually kept a manager there instead of sacking him. Tedesco has not only done an excellent job of ushering through youngsters like Maslov and Umyanov, but has also brought on existing talents like Bakaev and Ayrton, the latter of which has been one of the Premier League’s best players season. He’s also done a good job at maturing Kral, Urunov, and especially Larsson. I had my doubts about the German boss when he first took the reins, but he’s doing seriously well with a good team now

I mean, who could even recognise Ponce now, based on what he was when he arrived? The changes have been phenomenal, and instead of scouring for a natural goal-scorer, Spartak Moscow have suddenly discovered that they’ve got two brilliant ones in Ponce and Larsson, but had been playing them too wide before! To cap it off, they then went and brought in target man Sobolev (injured today) and proven goal-scorer Kokorin! Not just that, but bringing in Moses on the right was just a stroke of genius. Honestly, this team now has a genuine wide threat at all times, whether it’s Moses or Ayrton. They’ve got excellent movement ahead of them, and good target men too. The midfield is a boatload of industry, marshalled by the excellent Kral in front of the back four. Everything about this team now makes sense to me, and it works!

All Tedesco has done to turn this team from a band of soulless mercenaries into an efficient winning machine is to fuse the promising youngsters from their academy with the proven players of the senior team. That’s made them prouder, more competitive, and that in itself has inspired the others to follow suit. Spartak Moscow don’t need to spend a lot of money now they’ve found the right setup. They can genuinely compete for the title this season with this squad, and will have an even greater chance of winning it if Zenit St. Petersburg are indeed stupid enough to sack Semak. This is a good team, and one I trust more with each passing week. They should not struggle to beat FK Rostov today, even with their opponents’ boss Karpin knowing his old club well.

FK Rostov made seriously good signings of late, and should be very dangerous for the rest of the season. The problem is that they’ve made too many new signings at once, and now have the arduous task of bringing them into the squad. They tried it against newly-promoted FK Khimki and lost 2-0 – ouch. In the process, they lost star Finnish midfield controller Eremenko, who was sent off, and thus can’t play against Spartak Moscow today. Double ouch – he’s their best player! He’d be at a better club too, if it wasn’t for all that drugs shenanigans from years back.

FK Rostov have been far too inconsistent this season as it is. They may have good players – and they really do! – but it means nothing without the displays to back it up. In theory, a midfield containing Mamaev, Hashimoto, Eremenko, and now Swedish wonderkid Gigovic should be very good at controlling games and creating chances, and having Poloz and Almqvist up front to score the goals should be dangerous too. In theory, it works like a charm. Unfortunately for FK Rostov, the reality is very different to the theory, and not in a good way.

FK Rostov are giving far too many chances away per game because of a lack of familiarity, and it’s causing them to drop points too often now. The potential is there for something much greater than what they have, but without the cohesion to pull them off, what’s the point? FK Rostov are not in a position to deal with a superior Spartak Moscow right now, especially not without Eremenko. The visitors may be good at battling, but they’re not going to be able to contain the capital club here. In the past, I would almost always favour FK Rostov to get something from such encounters but not anymore; Tedesco has done his job too well for work-rate to unsettle the home team now.

Therefore, I’ll take my chances on Spartak Moscow beating the -1 Asian Handicap at 13/10.

Verdict: Spartak Moscow to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 13/10.

Augsburg vs Mainz 05 

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

The question I’m asking myself here is…do you guys know something that I don’t? Because I’ve watched both of these two teams a lot this season, mostly by coincidence, and Augsburg have always looked the stronger team to more. I know Mainz 05 can be decent enough when they put their backs into it, but this still isn’t a good team. Augsburg have performed above and beyond, especially against top teams, so I’m scratching my head as the constantly rising odds on the home win here. Perhaps it’s better to wait for the line-ups in case of any Covid-19 cases but there’s no mention of it in the resource I use for German football.

Assuming I’ve not missed anything, the home win looks good enough to back here. Augsburg have seriously stepped things up this season tactically. I still don’t regard them as a team that can defend particularly well, but their defensive shape this season has been remarkably good. I appreciate that teams like Bv09 Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg did waste chances against them, but I also recognise that, compared to usual, Augsburg deprived them of such opportunities far better than they usually would. This is no longer just a team that attacks well, but one that is a pain in the arse to beat too.

On top of that, Augsburg have a seriously good head-to-head record versus Mainz 05 in recent times. They usually have what it takes to win this fixture, and seldom have they looked more likely to do so than now. Their squad is looking fitter than it has in ages with tenacious Richter back to play the inside forward role, and even big Finnbogason managing to stay fit for a little while. Having a midfield containing Hahn and Caligiuri is such a boost for them though, honestly. They’re both class acts at this level, and it shows in every single match. The likes of Jensen and Vargas can only get better from playing along side such players.

I’m still not convinced that Herrlich is a particularly good manager but it must be remarked that what he’s done with Augsburg this season is very impressive. I’m not concerned that they’ve lost back-to-back games against good teams, especially with the Bayer 04 Leverkusen defeat being particularly harsh on Augsburg with the lucky header giving their hosts the lead, and the late breakaway against a net that was without a keeper sealing the deal. They’ve applied themselves really well during this recent period, Augsburg, and against lesser teams, they’d have gotten better results. As far as I am concerned, Mainz 05 is a ‘lesser team’ right now, and I see no reason to doubt this highly convincing Augsburg team beating them here.

Mainz 05 will improve; that much is a given. They’ve not managed to avoid relegation for as long as they have by capitulating for long periods of the season, especially not at the start. Their manager situation made it particularly tough for them to deal with, and then the absence of Niakhate was the icing on the cake as he’s their only consistently good defender. There were signs against both Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Borussia Moenchengladbach that some of that Mainz 05 mental steel is returning though. They fought harder, wanted it more, and almost got something on both occasions. They’re not shit, Mainz 05 – let me be quite clear on that – but they’re not in a terrific place at the moment, and things aren’t going to improve until they get some points on the board.

After this game, they’ve got Schalke 04 at home – a perfect way to pick up three points. After the international break, they get to play host to TSG Hoffenheim, who are splitting their attention over three competitions right now, and travelling to face newly-promoted Arminia Bielefeld – that’s when Mainz 05 can try to pick up points. They’ll give it a good shot today, I am sure – such is their nature. Do they really have what it takes though? Mentally, probably – but not in terms of effectiveness on the pitch.

Again, please don’t view Mainz 05 as a shit team because they’re not. They’ve got really good attacking options, especially with Quaison getting better year on year, Ji finally back in the fold, Mateta maturing, and classy Boetius supporting them, although I do wish the latter would stop flinging himself to the ground every time someone comes near him. Again, things will improve for Mainz 05, sooner or later. They’ve got too many battlers, and too much attacking quality for it not to. I just don’t see that day being today, not against this new-look Augsburg side that has a touch of the formidable about them.

For now, I have to regard the home win at 11/10 as a good value pick here.

Verdict: Augsburg to win at 11/10.

Brescia vs Virtus Entella

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

Brescia are considerably better than Virtus Entella – but only when they’ve got all of their players available, which is not the case today. It was bad enough when they were missing Donnarumma. Then their game with Cremonese got postponed, and now they’re facing Virtus Entella with boatloads of players absent, not just Donnarumma.

Some are first-teamers, and some are not, but most of them have attacking responsibilities, which is far from ideal. Donnarumma is their main goal-scorer, of course. Torregrossa, Fridjonsson, Ragusa, Bjarnason, Zmrhal – they’re all out here, as are defenders Semprini and Cistana. I may like Brescia, but these kind of absentees are too much for them. I still rate Skrabb, Dessena, and Aye, but they need more variety to win games at Serie B level, Brescia, and they’re seriously lacking on that front today. I still think they’ll get promoted, and that Lopez is the right man ot lead them, but for now this is a team to oppose rather than back because they’re simply missing too many players.

I don’t honestly think that Virtus Entella did enough pre-season after a very impressive debut in Serie B. They needed to fresh things up to remain unpredictable, but it never transpired, which is why they’ve stopped winning games. They’re still playing some lovely football, Virtus Entella – few teams at Serie B level are more confident on the ball than they are. To what end, though? You can’t get points based off of merit, I’m afraid – there needs to be an end product, and in Virtus Entella’s case, there seldom is.

However, they have remained a very hard side to beat. That’s partially because it’s a nightmare to get the ball off them, and partially because they’re well-organised with a great deal of discipline. Defensively speaking, Virtus Entella are excellent. It’s just the other end of the pitch that bothers me. Still, things suit them today – they’re massive underdogs so there’s no pressure, and their hosts are without a number of irreplaceable players. Realistically speaking, there’s no reason to expect Virtus Entella to lose this match.

Therefore, I’ll take my chances on Virtus Entella avoiding defeat today.

Verdict: Virtus Entella to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 93/100.

FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland 

KO: 15:00 (UK time)

Risky? Yeah, absolutely. FC Midtjylland have made no secrets about the UEFA Champions League being their priority, so rotation is all but guaranteed here.

The reason I want to get involved in this fixture is because there’s always a touch of inevitability about them. I love how FC Nordsjaelland play football; it’s very fast, determined, and entertaining. However, it’s the only way that they know how to play. If you stop it, you stop them altogether, and that defence of theirs couldn’t keep a cow out, even with their comedy signing of Djourou lately. Well, he’s still the best centre-back they’ve ever had, to be fair, but he is a bit of a calamity too, so he should fit right in.

Anyway – no matter what FC Nordsjaelland do, they can never break FC Midtjylland down with any consistency. Sure, they’ll nick a goal from time to time but then FC Midtjylland simply step it up a gear and score more than them – because they can. FC Nordsjaelland only managed to rattle three past them at the back end of last season because the title race over and FC Midtjylland let their hair down. 6-3 flattered FC Nordsjaelland though, not their hosts. To put it bluntly, today’s visitors always have the measure of FC Nordsjaelland, it stems from their tactics.

Imagine that the home team is basically just a bunch of plucky youngsters with bundles of energy and speed – because that’s what they are. What’s the best way to stop it? High press, of course! Press their goalkeeper into booting it forward instead of playing out from the back. Sit on their midfielders with athletic players that can’t be easily turned. It’s not easy to physically do, but FC Midtjylland make it look easy whenever they lock horns with FC Nordsjaelland, home or away, because they know what it takes to beat this team. That’s why, even with rotation, I still expect the reigning champions to win this fixture – they know how to upset FC Nordsjaelland, and it works like a charm every time.

I fully expect the away team to make changes here, as I said above. They’re enjoying themselves in the UEFA Champions League, even if results aren’t going their way. They play good football, break teams down well, and are quite clinical too. Break through their athleticism and fitness, and you will find a defence that will ship goals. Most Danish teams can’t do that to them though. FC Nordsjaelland don’t seem smart enough to do it, and haven’t for some years now. Therefore, I expect FC Midtjylland to control this game, and ultimately win it, hence the potentially suicidal tip.

Verdict: FC Midtjylland to win at 19/20.

FC Schaffhausen vs SC Kriens 

KO: 18:00 (UK time)

I’d like to back FC Schaffhausen here, but it’s not going to happen. That’s because they’ve got some reasonable absentee/potential absentee issues to deal with, and because Asumah of SC Kriens has been channelling his inner Nsame again. When he does that, he carries his team to good results, and SC Kriens work hard enough to unsettle the home team here, especially if FC Schaffhausen are missing the players I think they’ll be.

Bizarrely, FC Schaffhausen find themselves third from bottom despite possessing a squad and a manager capable of getting them promoted. It’s still early days in the Challenge League, of course, but they need to be picking up more wins if promotion is to be a reality. The fact that they’re the second-highest scoring team in the competition tells you how much potential is there, but the scary statistic that only Aarau have conceded more than them is pretty galling too. I’m sure they’ll be very good on a more consistent basis when they settle down, FC Schaffhausen, but for now they look better for goals than they do for wins.

I don’t doubt that the home team are the better side here; the bookies aren’t wrong. FC Schaffhausen have Super League level players on their books, the best of which are the Rodriguez brothers. Even Sessolo can’t get a look in this season, and he carried them last season! This defence is terrifying though, and if Mujcic is indeed out tonight – as is suggested he will be – then they’re not going to keep a clean sheet against SC Kriens here. They’ve got to constantly battle for ninety minutes to stifle SC Kriens, and although some of this team will do that, I’m not convinced that they all will. Bluntly put, SC Kriens are going to get their chances here, and they’ve already proven this season that they know how to take them.

Well, I say ‘they’ – it’s all just Asumah, really. Ok, so the whole team works hard as one, and both Mulaj and Yesilcayir have had terrific campaigns, but it’s still all about Asumah. Why Young Boys Bern haven’t signed him yet, I will never know. I understand the trepidation; players can be one-season wonders. He’s already proven this season that he’s the real deal though, especially now he’s playing with SC Kriens’ best side rather than the “B” team he had to play with for the back end of last season because of injuries. Now, though – he’s just absolutely annihilating the Challenge League with his power, his awkward, lanky stride, and his clinical finishing. I don’t know what else he needs to do to get a Super League team to buy him, honestly, because if none of them do, a German lower league club will.

The natural fire of SC Kriens is hard enough to deal with to begin with, but when they’re scoring goals too? Be somewhere else! This team has already humped a far superior Grasshopper Zurich 5-2, and they ran FC Thun bloody close last time out. They’re only going to get better as the season goes on, SC Kriens, even though they’re actually rather limited as individuals. Collectively, they’re very effective, and they score goals as they see fit. This is not a team to take lightly right now, and containing a team has seldom looked less possible for FC Schaffhausen than it does right now.

Therefore, backing over 3 goals at 22/25 makes sense here.

Verdict: Over 3 goals at 22/25.

Corinthians vs Internacional

KO: 22:00 (UK time)

Although I still remain somewhat nervous with trusting Internacional’s Fuchs-less defence, I still feel like they’re worth the risk here, predominantly because Corinthians are dreadful. The home team just go from bad to worse with their decision-making, on and off the pitch, and deserve to be opposed at all times nowadays. A huge club, yes, but not a good team anymore, and one that now appears hellbent on regressing once more after a few months of progressing as an attacking team.

Corinthians may have won in Rio de Janeiroo against Vasco da Gama in their last Serie A outing but that means nothing to me. If you let them have the ball, and do things at their own tempo, they will punish you. Most teams in Brazil aren’t as sluggish as Vasco da Gama on that front, and will simply deny Corinthians that possibility though. Serie B’s America Mineiro proved just how it’s done in their mid-week Copa do Brasil win in Sao Paulo, and many other Serie A clubs this season have showcased how to do it too. Corinthians are too easy to predict nowadays, to be frank.

I don’t think they can complain, either. They’ve brought in a good but defensive manager in Mancini despite Corinthians being far stronger in attack than defence, as that was the whole point of signing the likes of Luan in the first place – to be more adventurous than they have been for about ten years now. Instead, they’ve given up at the first hurdle, and reverted back to their dour, defensive football. I have no sympathy with Corinthians because they really do bring stuff like this on themselves. They’re now the worst team in Brazil that I’ve seen playing in Serie A when it comes to defensive positioning without the ball. They’ve not got the faintest clue how to deal with counterattacks, which most Brazilian teams are pretty bloody good at. Sometimes I wonder how they’re still in this division, and then I remind myself that this season might finally be the one where they get relegated – and Brazilian football fans would not miss them.

The real question here is how effective do Internacional intend on being? They’ve won most games lately, but I couldn’t hand-on-heart say I’m blown away by what I’ve seen. Too often their goalkeeper has had to bail them out, and too often they’ve lost control of games. Now, with an attack like theirs, it’s tended not to matter because of how many goals they score. They could do with wising up a little bit against Corinthians though. I may slag tonight’s hosts off for being lazy, but they do have some good attackers on their books, and it’s important that Internacional don’t ‘remind’ Corinthians of that, you know?

As unconvincing as they may be at controlling games sometimes though, Internacional remain seriously good in attack, not least through the fantastic Thiago Galhardo, who has easily been the signing of the season. Open play, penalties – you name it, he’s bossed it. Playing alongside classy club legend d’Alessandro, Patrick, and even sometimes Boschilia (when uninjured), Internacional’s midfield have simply purred their way past opponents this seasonand having options like Guerrero, Fernandez, and Hernandez (each availabile at different times, it seems) has only made their task easier. They’re just a bit too good in attack to be contained, Internacional, even if their overall tactics need tweaking.

With the above in mind, I’m sure you can see why I fancy the away win at 13/10.

Verdict: Internacional to win at 13/10.

Fortaleza vs Fluminense 

KO: 00:00 (UK time)

I’m expecting a really good, entertaining game between these two teams tonight. With my luck of late, that virtually guarantees a 0-0 draw, but the logic behind the call is sound enough.

Fortaleza play very intense, combative football. They’re not dirty, per se, but I never get the impression that they’re far away from doing that, should the situation require it. They’re flexible, hard-working, and very fast. Fortaleza know no fear either. Truth be told, aside from when baffled big teams that had been relegated in the season prior return to Serie A, I would say that Fortaleza is the best team I’ve seen promoted from Serie B. They look very sharp, and very accustomed to dealing with everything thrown at them. Sure, they’re not perfect, but they’ve not been horribly outplayed by any team this season. All wins against them have required an element of luck and/or superior finishing; nothing more. To me, credit must go to new boss Ceni; he’s been marvellous for them.

With batter finishing, they’d be far higher up the table, Fortaleza – that much is for sure. It’s not quite panned out as planned for Wellington Paulista up front but he still gives it his all, week in, week out. They simply have the perfect blend of hard-working veterans that still give a shit, and players that are desperate to prove themselves at this level. Individually, they don’t have so much to offer, Fortaleza, but as a unit, they’re one of the best, most consistent teams I’ve seen playing in Brazil this season. Such a hard side to actually deal with for ninety minutes. I can only see them annoying Fluminense too.

Fluminense have the better players than their hosts, at least in attack, but they do struggle to do enough to contain teams. As good a job as Hellmann has done this season, the talent of Fluminense lies in their surprisingly mobile, dangerous attack. You could be forgiven for thinking it’s just Portuguese prodigy Marcos Paulo that pulls the strings but no, it’s not. It’s typical outcast Ganso, prone to bouts of sulking/injury, and the constant class of veteran Nene that has steered Fluminense to such deadly displays. That trio’s understanding, movement, passing, and vision are just superb, making it mostly irrelevant who is up front because the service is so good.

Subsequently, Fluminense find it really easy to score goals. They’ve surprised me a lot this season by doing that, actually. This is not a particularly good team, at least not on paper, but Hellmann has made them very hard to contain. They’ll still concede soft goals far too often, especially when forced to play on the front foot, but they’re so good in attack that writing them off is really very dangerous. They’re fast in attack, they press high and hard, and they take their chances. Although I think Fortaleza are the smarter team, I would say that Fluminense are the better finishers, which makes the 1×2 market not worth going near here.

Backing both teams to score at evens, though – it just makes sense here.

Verdict: Both teams to score at evens.