TFT Issue 3253!

Rizespor vs Kayserispor

KO: 10:30 (UK time)

Rizespor are a funny team to predict. The bookies don’t know what to do with them, and I do not blame the bookies. For once, I have some sympathy with them because I, too, am made to look a fool by this team sometimes. Let me explain.

To all intents and purposes, Rizespor are an attacking team. They’re not particularly consistent when it comes to doing it, but they do everything possible to send all of their matches over 2.5 goals, whether in a good attacking way, or a suicidal defending way. There’s no middle ground with this team; there’s no capacity to control games from deep positions. No, it’s all about getting the ball forward, getting men forward, and scoring more goals than their opponents. A tad archaic, perhaps, but entertaining nonetheless.

This season, Rizespor have pulled off yet more seriously impressive signings. Remy is a brilliant poacher, Skoda is a brilliant poacher, and now they added Fernando too – three excellent goal-getters. Umar’s still injured, but no worries – Samu is in the mood. Boldrin, Donsah, and Baiano are making things happen as they see fit, and subsequently Rizespor are always, always threatening their opponents. They don’t let up, and I’ve never quite made up my mind as to whether it’s because they want to do that, or because they fear what will happen if they don’t do that.

Anyway, this team does everything possible to make their games entertaining – and they usually succeed via one medium or another. Their defence is pretty poor nowadays though; far worse than it was a couple of years back. There are no leaders, there’s not enough organisation, and not really a good enough ball-winner in front of them. Like I said earlier, Rizespor are about attacking and scoring goals, and that’s precisely what they’ll try to do today. They create enough to score boatloads, and they give enough chances away to concede boatloads, but whether their games are actually high-scoring or not boils down to finishing. Sometimes it works out, and sometimes it doesn’t. The call is yours to make, folks. As far as I am concerned, most Rizespor games should go over 2.5 goals, and at the odds quoted, even with shit luck, I can’t overlook such.

I think Kayserispor will come to the party too. They made two very good attacking signings last month, bringing in rapid full-back Behich, who loves to get forward, and the outstanding Portuguese playmaker Fernandes. If only he’d become this mature in his younger years – what a player he’d have been, eh? They both know Turkey’s Super Lig very well, and both are very good at influencing games, albeit for different reasons. With those two now in the equation, it’s far easier for Henrique and Lennon to influence games from wide positions, which makes it far easier for their forwards to score goals.

Now, I am not a particularly big fan of the Kayserispor attack because they don’t have finishers. They have target men, they have runners, and they have hasslers – but no finishers. Their lack of goal threat was the reason that Fernandes and Behich were brought in; to make it so that they don’t need better finishers in order to score more goals because the quality of the supply would increase dramatically, and I agree with the line of thought. Kayserispor want to be attacking but haven’t really had the scope to be – until now. Against an attack-minded Rizespor, they’re going to get opportunities, and I don’t see them spurning such, given who is now donning their colours.

Therefore, I’m led to believe that this game will be a comfortable over 2.5 goals encounter, although given my luck of late, I would not blame anyone for sticking a tenner on a 0-0 draw! In all seriousness though, this should be a very open game, as it almost always is, and that should produce a high-scoring outcome.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 19/20.

Karlsruher SC vs Darmstadt 98 

KO: 12:30 (UK time)

How many times, Darmstadt 98? Honestly? Each time I watch them, they play brilliantly, they’re controlling the game, and then they go and throw their lead away for no reason! I just don’t get it. It’s the most un-Darmstadt 98 problem that there can possibly be because this team works exceptionally hard, and is known in the Bundesliga 2 for their focus! Crazy, crazy shit.

How they didn’t beat Osnabruck mid-week, I will never know. Osnabruck couldn’t have created more than three chances in the whole of the second-half, and all three of them were within a ten minute window; the only one in which they actually saw the ball in their opponents’ half. There just seems to be this bizarre suicidal tendency about Darmstadt 98 right now that I cannot begin to understand. I hoped that Palsson’s return would stop this shit from happening, but no, it still is. This team has a genuine outside chance of getting promoted with the squad they’ve managed to cobble together for this campaign, but that’s not going to happen if they keep throwing games away from winning positions.

It was pleasing to see Seydel featuring mid-week, though. He’s still not fully fit, but you could see the potential of what he’ll be offering in due course. If they can keep him fit, then he and Dursun will rip teams at this level apart; I have no doubts about it, especially not with Honsak, Kempe, and Stanilewicz (in due course) supporting. There’s a lot to like about this Darmstadt 98 squad, honestly. It’s just that they’re doing a few too many stupid things at the moment for me to trust them to win games, and beating Karlsruher SC, home or away, is very much a possibility for this team if they focus.

The problem is that Karlsruher SC have improved a lot since star target man Hofmann returned from injury. They’ve only lost one of those matches, hammering a superior SV Sandhausen in the process. Having the focal point of their attack back doesn’t just mean he’ll score more goals; it means he’ll create more too. I can’t say that there’s anything special about Hofmann other than his height, but this team needs him in order to function – and he’ll be playing. Their confidence levels have risen significantly since his return, and the team has been recording better results because of it. For that reason, I cannot write the hosts off here, much as though I should be able to, given the difference in quality between the two teams.

Karlsruher SC’s decision to surround Hofmann with pace and power is an old trick, but a good one. They’re so annoying to deal with when playing that way. They may not be particularly good, Eichner’s men, but they sure are effective. I don’t trust them to contain teams, but I do trust them to be problematic to face, and this is the kind of team that Darmstadt 98 keep failing to beat despite seeing most of the ball. I just don’t see why history wouldn’t repeat itself here.

I should be able to trust in the away win today but I don’t. Instead, I trust in over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

OB vs AC Horsens 

KO: 13:00 (UK time)

OB have been playing well lately, and considering that this has happened with Jebali out and Kadrii nothing more than a memory, that’s impressive. On paper, OB are not especially good – nothing new there – but they do have the capacity to play better football than most Superligaen sides, and at the present time, they’re proving it. They even gave a far superior FC Midtjylland a good game in recent times.

It was their 3-0 win at Lyngby that finally persuaded me to trust them a bit more though. It’s one thing to play well, but it’s another to get everything to click together in order to record a win. The win will naturally bring confidence, and with confidence, OB’s improved displays should logically lead to improved results. They’re attack-minded enough to decide games like today’s in their favour anyway, and there’s no doubt in my mind that they’re the superior team to AC Horsens. The question really is whether they’ll be in the mood or not, and if so, how many they’ll get because their opponents can’t really hold a candle to them.

I’ve been impressed by OB’s new recruits lately, which makes a nice change. Ordinarily, everything Odense-related is pretty damn lazy but they appear to have done their homework this time. Gudjohnsen’s height has been used sparingly, but he looks dangerous when on the field. Sabbi has become very, very effective after his spell with Hobro, although he needs to cut out the petulance and diving if he’s to reach a higher level. Okosun has settled in brilliantly, as you’d expect, and the team is pretty much at full fitness now with key midfielder Drachmann back to boss things. They should be better at controlling games and nullifying opponents with Drachmann back in the equation, and as long as they keep creating chances today, I don’t see them struggling to overcome AC Horsens.

I think it’s a good time to face the away team, who still do nothing for me. At least in previous years they had the brilliant motivator that is Henriksen to encourage them to perform well above their station; that’s literally all that prevented this seriously low quality team from getting relegated. This season, they’ve opted for a change, bringing in Dal instead for reasons far beyond my comprehension. Their results have not improved; they’re still the same battling side as ever, so what the point was, I don’t quite know. Let’s check back in three months or so to see if my opinion has changed there or not.

As always, AC Horsens will run their opponents into the ground but seldom doing anything particularly productive. Other than Hansson and Andreasen, they lack any kind of quality in area of the pitch, AC Horsens. It’s literally all about work-rate and tactics at this club, and in an increasingly competitive Superligaen campaign in which clubs like Vejle can get promoted with phenomenal squads, the AC Horsens that we know may not be lurking around this division for much longer. Time will tell.

For today’s trip to Odense, the visitors are without half of their back four, namely Jacobsen and Lumb. They may be able to unsettle their opponents by battling away, and have done so in the past, given OB’s natural proclivity for complacency. However, this AC Horsens feels different, and this OB feels different too. OB have more mental steel about them right now, and AC Horsens still do very little of their own accord that makes me think they deserve any kind of respect at this stage. With the absentees they’re dealing with, I envision a long game for the visitors today.

Therefore, I’m happy to chance my arm on OB beating the -1 Asian Handicap at evens. 

Verdict: OB to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.

Sparta Rotterdam vs SC Heerenveen

KO: 13:30 (UK time)

The Dutch Eredivisie is seldom kind to 1×2 backers, but all luck has to change at some point…right?

The logic is there, of course. SC Heerenveen struggled since Ejuke moved to CSKA Moscow, who has been tearing up the Russian Premier League. Jansen suddenly figured out that signing big Dutch target man Veerman from his miserable stint at St. Pauli in Germany’s Bundesliga 2 was not going to work unless he had support from out wide. Now, this team may not lack in speed, nor in attacking intent – but without Ejuke, it lacked end product. Uh-oh. So, in their infinite wisdom, SC Heerenveen decided to…well, do nothing, and hope the problem went away. That obviously didn’t help anything though.

Backed into a corner by unconvincing final third play, SC Heerenveen then pulled off a wonderful coup under the radar by loaning Swedish wonderkid Nygren from Racing Genk. I never felt he got the game time his IFK Goteborg displays warranted there, and the changing of managers didn’t help either. Now he’s been given a chance to shine on a bigger platform, and boy is he taking it! The talented wide man has already scored and created goals for his new team in just two appearances, and he’s good enough to carry on doing so. With Meier maturing with each passing week, Joey Veerman controlling the game, and Henk Veerman now flanked by speed and intelligence, suddenly SC Heerenveen look a lot more effective. They’ve smashed both FC Emmen and TOP Oss in recent times. Not the most challenging of fixtures, I agree, and both were at home, but confidence is back in the Abe Lenstra boys, and when they’re confident, they’re a lot more effective.

Subsequently, I’m inclined to expect a good display in Rotterdam today. Scoring goals against Sparta Rotterdam – it’s not hard. They’re a very attack-minded team, no matter what level they’re playing at – or whatever opponent they’re facing, for that matter. However, actually beating them takes more than that because this team never knows when to give up. They’re natural fighters, Sparta Rotterdam, largely courtesy as their role as a consistent yo-yo team between divisions, leaving them with a lot of lower league players on their books that know the value of hard graft. They do occasionally stumble across (or produce) good young players, who almost immediately leave for better clubs, but the core of the team is hard work.

Sparta Rotterdam may lack in the ability to actually win games, but they don’t lack in the right performances. True enough, they’ll ship goals against most teams – but they’ll score against most too. They’re very silky in the final third, Sparta Rotterdam, and they play out from the back really well too. They may be old-fashioned, but they’re effective, and players usually enjoy playing for them for that reason. Their squad changed a lot pre-season after their best players all naturally left, and what’s left is limited but determined. They do at least still have Auassar to keep them ticking, and that’s important – he’s a class act when he wants to be.

Of course, the problem with that is that Auassar is out today. So is Smeets, too. That’s two of their four regular attacking midfielders from last season. As an attacking team, that’s a problem. As an attacking team that can never, ever defend well, that’s a bigger problem because they need goals purely to offset the amount that their opponents are almost guaranteed to score against them, never mind to actually try and win. What’s left is powerful but not very experienced, and not very smart. Subsequently, I’m inclined to believe that we’ll see Sparta Rotterdam see plenty of the ball but use it badly, and when that happens, things rarely go well for them.

That, fused with a new, Nygren-led SC Heerenveen, makes me lean toward the away win with draw no bet cover at 83/100.

Verdict: SC Heerenveen to win with draw no bet at 83/100.

Angers SCO vs OGC Nice 

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Whether I have luck or not today is something else entirely, but it’s worth keeping a very close eye on Angers SCO for the foreseeable future. They’re a good side anyway, particularly at home; one that seldom struggles to get the best out of their players. They’ve also made two terrific signings under the radar lately. Don’t back them in games where you have to be particularly smart/calculating; that’s not their game. However, in more open games – like the one today against OGC Nice – they should be able to show what they can do.

The thing to bear in mind with Angers SCO is the number of engines they have in their team. Their athleticism is amongst the very best in Ligue 1. Sometimes that’s enough, and sometimes it isn’t – Racing Club Strasbourg have unearthed the latter for large portions of the present campaign, and it’s been the plague of Metz for as many years as I can remember! – but adding a bit of quality makes it very, very effective. Quite why the likes of Boufal and Cabot would want to play for this team, I don’t really know. Both are capable of playing for better, more progressive teams than this. I admit that it’s probably a great deal of fun to play for Angers SCO because of their attacking nature, but even so, those two are young-ish players so I would have thought they’d have loftier ambitions right now.

Still, it’s Angers SCO that will profit, and indeed, already have. Those two provide Angers SCO with the intelligence in the final third that they often lack. Both are wide players, and both have excellent division, dribbling, and movement. With them on the pitch, it won’t take much for Thioub, club legend Bahoken, or even forgotten man Diony to start banging goals in. They do need to get the confidence levels of some key signings back to where it was but if they do, Angers SCO have made some brilliant signings for miniscule amounts. Hell, I’ve not even mentioned Amadou in midfield yet either – what a player he can be on his day!

I think it’s fair to say that this is the best Angers SCO team I’ve seen in a long time, actually. On paper only for now, but the early signs are very encouraging, which is unsurprising as all of their signings know Ligue 1 inside out by now. They’re starting to play well enough to not notice the pre-season departure of Santamaria, which is good. There’s little that I admire more about Angers SCO than their ability to replace anyone that leaves. I don’t know how they do it, but they do – consistently. When I see them making signings like they have though, and splashing the cash on goalkeeper Bernardoni, I can’t help but wonder if perhaps they’re now comfortable enough in their Ligue 1 status to actually start pushing to be something more. Time will tell. But yeah – take them seriously, please, even if they lose 10-0 today (which would undoubtedly be the fault of my bad luck).

OGC Nice – more specifically, Patrick Vieira – are taking some shit at the moment. The media tends to do that anyway, but in this instance, I think it’s merited. For all of the money they’ve spent, and the quality players they’ve brought in, OGC Nice are not convincing. I can’t help but wonder where they’d be if it wasn’t for Olympique Lyonnais outcast Gouiri carrying them. He was the sole difference between OGC Nice embarrassing themselves at home against Hapoel Be’er Sheva mid-week and claiming a win that nobody can complain about. As with all Olympique Lyonnais academy graduates, the potential is all there, but the mental fortitude simply isn’t, which is probably why he fits in so well with the south coast nutters as he does.

I can’t deny that OGC Nice have a better squad than Angers SCO, and that I would hardly break down in tears if the visitors were to pick something positive up from this game. However, watching their games makes it very hard for me to trust in their ability as a unit because they seldom show it. I recognise the potential, but the actuality is far from convincing. The reason Vieira is taking so much shit is because he doesn’t connect with his players, and his tactics are…well, let’s just say that they’re not exactly aligned with the players that have been signed. It’s almost as if somebody else has been making the signings rather than him…

The end result is that you get the manager trying to make this team smarter, which they’re…well, not capable of being. OGC Nice are, and always have been, an impact team. They’re a side that relies heavily upon fast dribblers, quick passing, and goal-scoring. They don’t have the patience nor consistency to be a patient, calculating team that breaks others down. They always want to go faster, and to  be fair, that’s when they look their best. Vieira wants the opposite, though. He wants them to be more controlling, and it’s just not their game. Subsequently, there’s always a divide in the OGC Nice camp, or so it feels, and that makes it very hard for me to trust them.

Ligue 1 is quite clearly OGC Nice’s focus rather than the UEFA Europa League but playing a game every three days is still taking its toll on this team. Their opponents have had a week to prepare for this match, and have almost never lost against OGC Nice in recent years because they’re far stronger mentally, and because they work harder. Barring an unexpectedly inspirational display from a tiring OGC Nice side against Angers SCO, who just handed Stade Rennais their first defeat of the season away from home, then I expect the home team to have enough about them to win this game.

Verdict: Angers SCO to win at 6/5.

Dijon FCO vs Lorient 

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

Dijon FCO may be at the foot of the Ligue 1 table, but I really don’t expect them to stay there. They’ve had a baptism of fire this season, losing Tavares, Aguerd, and Gomis, and now losing wantaway midfielder Amalfitano too. I do think that they’ve made good signings to replace them, but these things take time, and that’s why Dijon FCO are at the bottom of the table, not because they’ve suddenly become crap.

I’m a big fan of Kosovan creator Celina, who joined from Swansea City; a product of the Manchester City academy. I’m a big fan of Ivorian attacker Roger Assale, who is finally fit enough to show what he’s capable of at this level. I’m not so big a fan of new striker Konate, but I recognise what he brings with his speed. All of those players joining the underrated Balde, emerging Ebimbe, and their powerhouses Diop and Ndong makes for a very fast, dangerous team.  They should be even more dangerous if they ever get Benzia properly fit, which seems unlikely at this stage. I certainly don’t see this as the worst team in Ligue 1, and thus improvements are to be expected in the future.

I wouldn’t class beating Lorient as an easy task by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s the easiest game Dijon FCO have got for a while now so it would makes sense for them to try and get a win on the board. Lorient may be good in attack, but they’re awful in defence, and Dijon FCO finally look in some kind of position to exploit such. They’re usually very strong at home, Dijon FCO, and with the quality that is undeniably in their attack, I expect them to prove it today. I don’t know if their defence can contain Lorient well enough for the match to end in a home win, especially not with so many new faces in key positions (and a lot of them young), but I do think that their attack may carry them through.

The problem for the home team is that they play very open football now, and that suits Lorient. It’s teams that lock up and sit deep that cause the newly-promoted side problems, as Olympique de Marseille cowardly but effectively did last weekend. My concern for Lorient is that they always concede. They already average conceding almost two goals per game, and it’s at this stage of the season where they’re supposed to be performing their best, having only just returned to Ligue 1 from Ligue 2. If this is a sign of things to come, they’re going to find surviving relegation a really tough battle. As much as I respect their attack, it will have periods where it’s not effectual, and during such times, Lorient are going to be absolutely screwed. What about in January, when Olympique de Marseille’s fans kick off because they’ve not won anything worth winning in years, and they panic buy Wissa? These things need thinking about, and as much as I like Lorient, they don’t appear to be doing a lot of thinking in general right now.

Still, they play lovely football, the northerners, and they seldom leave matches without scoring. Wissa is one reason, but Grbic has settled in well too. Hamel has got amongst the goals, surprisingly enough – I didn’t think the target man would perhaps have enough for Ligue 1 level – and the support they get from Lemoine etc. is excellent. It’s very much a team game at Lorient. Everybody wants to score goals, and everybody helps one another do it. They’re completely unafraid to commit men forward, and Dijon FCO won’t scare them today either for obvious reasons.

I still have doubts over the Lorient project though, like I said. I’m not sure they’re good enough overall to win this game, even if they do score two or three. I’m sure they’ll give it a damn good try though, and that’s all I really want them to do. Assuming that occurs, backing over 2.5 goals at 9/10 simply makes sense here.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Stade de Reims vs Racing Club Strasbourg 

KO: 14:00 (UK time)

A lot of folk are backing the visitors here; that’s fine. Not my cup of tea personally, because Racing Club Strasbourg do tend to struggle away from home, but I get it. They’ve looked surprisingly effective since overrated Diallo joined them. I don’t see that trend lasting for a particularly long time, but for the present it’s working well enough.

I would not confuse his two goals in two appearances, though. I do not think he is the long-term solution to Racing Club Strasbourg’s problems in attack. Indeed, I rather think it more likely that it’s Aholou’s return to the team that his triggered this upswing, as he’s a very good midfielder. Playing alongside Lienard and Thomasson, or even Prcic and in-form Chahiri, not to mention Sissoko, will almost always  end positively. They have zero issues in midfield, Racing Club Strasbourg – that’s where they excel. They’re all mobile, they all give a shit, and they never quit. As certain as the sun rising, Racing Club Strasbourg will never have issues in midfield!

Scoring goals, though – that’s been a real issue. They don’t have issues creating chances, you understand, but putting the ball in the net…well, it’s not been ideal. What did they expect with Ajorque, Saadi, and Mothiba, though? None of them are clinical. I’m a huge fan of Waris but he’s had injury problems and seems to prefer playing wider nowadays rather than through the middle. Something was needed, for sure, and Diallo’s arrival has done something positive, no matter what it is. Factor in the threat that they offer from set pieces, and you’ve got a good all-round attack.

Racing Club Strasbourg do not generally defend well. They rely on their work-rate to put teams off, especially in midfield, and it does work for some of the time. When it comes to man-for-man defending though, Racing Club Strasbourg are weak, and quite erratic too, especially Kone. They don’t lose many physical battles, Racing Club Strasbourg, but they do lose the battle of brains more often than nor. Still, they’re an admirable group with strong mentalities, and definitely not a team to underestimate, especially when playing at home.

They’re up against hapless Stade de Reims today, who are yet another team that made very good signings pre-season without there being any end product to show for it just yet. They weren’t that bad against Lorient, but playing with ten men has its punishments. They hammered Montpellier HSC 4-0 at La Mosson last time out though, and even playing against nine men, that bodes ominously. This is a very capable attacking team with a good manager in charge. I would not underestimate the home team, purely based upon their early season form, which a lot of folk seem to be doing.

I can be critical too, and I often am with this team because I know how good they can be. I mean, Rajkovic has made too many basic errors this season, their centre-backs haven’t clicked yet, and there are far too many new faces in this squad for any kind of cohesion to exist. Bluntly put, Stade de Reims have had a tough month or two in which they’ve not only not picked up many points, but haven’t deserved to either – until now. These past couple of games have been a big improvement, and they’re slowly beginning to show what they’re capable of. Sure, I don’t think Donis should ever be allowed to play again after what he’s shown in just three appearances, and I wish Hornby (out today) would get the run in the team that his displays have earned, but the overall impression I get of Stade de Reims is that things are improving – quite dramatically, too.

Is it any wonder, though? Gulon did a remarkable job with this team last season, and they made terrific pre-season buys like Berisha and Sierhuis, and Dia is in the form of his life right now! They’ve got a lot of fast supporting midfielders, and a great deal of potential for players to switch positions mid-game without breaking their stride. Honestly, this is going to be a very good team, and it’s more a question of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’ in my book. That’s another reason I don’t want to back Racing Club Strasbourg today – they’re facing a good team away from home; one that the bookies are underestimating with such odds on the away win.

As you can guess, the 1×2 market does nothing for me here; it could go either way. However, whatever the outcome, I struggle to accept the possibility of both teams failing to score in this one. They’re both far better in attack than defend, and both will see this as a winnable fixture. Therefore, I’m on both teams to score at 9/10.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 9/10.

IF vs AB 

KO: 14:30 (UK time)

In order to avoid relegation, AB need to win all of their remaining games, and hope that TB lose all of theirs. I doubt either will happen, but the Argir club cannot afford to give up. Beating IF is nowhere near as hard as beating a top five team, so I suppose that’s got to give the visitors some kind of confidence here. 

This will be an uphill task for AB though – make no mistake about it. I doubt that IF will be temperamental enough to have somebody sent off from a commanding position, which is what HB Torshavn did last time out. That afforded AB a way back into the game, although comically AB summed up their entire season by conceding at the death against ten men to lose 3-2. Even their Twitter account had had enough at that stage!

AB can only really blame themselves though. I liked what they did pre-season, but few of their gambles have actually paid off. I don’t think anyone can really doubt the quality of experienced Nigerian attacker Lawal, for example, but he scores goals in dribs and drabs. Van der Heyden is yet to bag after twenty appearances this season, which speaks volumes. It’s young Nielsen that is their leading goal-scorer with five, which just isn’t good enough. Every other bottom five Betrideildin club has done something that has made sense to me of late, whether the plan has worked out or not – except AB.

I can accept the original plan not working out; that’s only natural sometimes. AB’s complete lack of desire to affect their squad in the last transfer window was unacceptable though. At a time when all clubs around them strengthened, AB did nothing to freshen up their squad, or to try and stay up. They deserve to go down, and I believe that sooner or later, it’ll be made official that they will be relegated. Not that it matters, mind you. The Faroese tiers are so poorly structured that only a handful of teams from the division below can actually be legally promoted, meaning that any team that does get relegated tends to bounce back up straightaway.

But yeah – AB have got to win in Fuglafjordur today, and I don’t fancy their chances. Yes, IF are a fellow bottom five team, but they have the best attack of all bottom five teams – by a long way, too. Forget their form guide; they’ve given good teams really good games lately. It’s not worked out for them because defending is not something IF do well, and they’ve been attacking teams that attack better than they do. That kind of outcome sort of speaks for itself, really.

Against a desperate AB, though? IF should have a field day here. AB can’t afford to do what NSI Runavik did a few weeks back, stifling IF further up the pitch to prevent good service for their Serbian forwards. They also can’t do what KI did by blitzing IF with superior finishing. No, AB are going to have to grind away at IF, and hope for mistakes. That might work in their defence, but it won’t work when it comes to dealing with the powerful IF forwards, both of which have struck up an excellent bond this season. 

Despite signing a new contract a couple of months back, it’s hard to envision poacher Stojanov sticking around here; he’s proven himself worthy of a better club, and the Betrideildin top five is very competitive now. Still, for the present at least, IF have a dynamic strike duo, and really good support from Lokin, Lajkuni, and especially the veteran Olsen. They’re not at all shy when it comes to committing men forward, and their wide game is very difficult to deal with, particularly for the lesser Betrideildin teams. It’s hard to imagine AB finding a solution to this problem, no matter how desperate they are.

Therefore, I’m left feeling like we’re going to see a somewhat comprehensive home win here. Unless IF get complacent – which I’ll concede is a possibility – there’s no reason to doubt a superior IF humping a very poor AB today, and the odds are good enough to take a chance on.

Verdict: IF to beat the -1 Asian HAndicap at 23/25.

Aalborg BK vs Brondby 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

I’m trying not to be too harsh on Aalborg BK. I believe they’ve taken the right steps pre-season in order to solve their lack of goal-scorers issue by bringing in promising Swedish target man Tim Prica, son of Rade, as well as rapid Nkada from Stade de Reims. Van Weert still has something to offer at this level too. However, things haven’t exactly eased into gear for them yet. Aalborg BK don’t struggle to create chances, not with Kusk and Andersen on the pitch, and the signing of Hiljemark was a major, majorly impressive one too. Converting those chances, though – it’s a problem, because none of their forwards do it consistently.

I thought Aalborg BK did really well to hang onto the pillars of their squad pre-season, namely Okore, Andersen, Borsting, Kusk, and Pallesen. They lost Olsen to AGF, but all things considered, it was a good window for Aalborg BK. I thought they made good signings in the right areas too. Yes, I’d like to see another centre-back in the equation for them, but other than that, they did everything right. I’m pleased on that front, and perhaps the future will be better for the club because of what they’ve done. 

Their present looks no different to their past, though. They’re still controlling games better than most in Denmark, and they’ve still got some of the best midfielders in the country on their books, but they still aren’t doing enough in the final third to scare teams. The only good results they’ve clocked up recently were against AC Horsens, who had just made the stupidest decision they’ve made in years, and a distracted, ageing, and manager-less FC Copenhagen. A win is a win, but it’s hardly anything to be proud of. They may be getting a lot right off the pitch, Aalborg BK, but they’re not getting enough right on it, and even newly-promoted Vejle beat them 3-1 in their own backyard lately.

Things got worse this week too, with boss Friis resigning. His decision was not a sporting one; it was because his daughter is battling leukaemia, so Rasmus Wurtz will be the caretaker boss for now. Everything that Aalborg BK have done has been overseen by Friis. Him not being there is a problem for them. I know that few know this club better than Wurtz, both in a playing and non-playing capacity, but this is not ideal timing, especially not against a very good Brondby team.

Therefore, the opportunity for teams to capitalise upon their relative inefficiency is very much present. I believe sleeping giants Brondby fit the bill right now. Even if results haven’t always gone their way this season, their displays have been highly encouraging, and demonstrative of a maturity that has not been present in their squad since they last competed for the title a few years back. I’m not really concerned about them losing two games on the spin against two good opponents; instead, I’m far more encouraged by their consistent ability to hurt teams via good attacking football. That in itself should be enough to win this game against impotent Aalborg BK, in my opinion.

They’ve done a lot of good things, Brondby, and it’s beginning to show. Hedlund is in great form, Mensah is back fit, Uhre is winning everything in the air up front, and they’ve found three excellent wonderkids to call upon in Lindstrom, Frendrup, and Slimane. They’ve even got newbie Corlu to call upon if required, who impressed a lot last season elsewhere. They simply look more comfortable on the ball now, Brondby, and the great irony is that this comes at a time where they’ve got the fewest ‘big names’ on their books that they’ve had in years. There’s no Wilczek, Pukki, Halimi, Tibbling, Kaiser etc. – just players with a very good understanding and work-rate who all want to play attractive attacking football.

This Brondby team is one that can win in Aalborg today, to be blunt. No, they’re not perfect; Brondby still have some distance to go before I trust them as I once did. I still find that they buckle under too much pressure, not that many Danish teams are capable of doing that to them for prolonged periods. Aalborg BK is a team they’ve struggled to deal with in recent years, but this Brondby team feels different now, if that makes any kind of sense. They’re more confident, far better at finding ways past teams, and clinical to boot. I think they’ve picked a good time to face Aalborg BK, and that the form guide does them injustice at the moment.

Therefore, I’m going to take my chances on the visitors winning this game with draw no bet at evens.

Verdict: Brondby to win with draw no bet at evens.

EB/Streymur vs Skala 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

It’s probably not that uncommon in reality, but it feels like a rarity that the bottom club in the division is one of the teams playing the best football as the season draws to a conclusion, especially with Skala now consigned to relegation (which was pretty much guaranteed at the start of the season anyway). However, Skala are playing really, really well at the moment, not that the form guide shows it very well.

To understand Skala’s situation, I think you have to appreciate that the lost half of their starting eleven pre-season, have changed managers twice this season, and they knew they were going to end up getting relegated anyway. Despite all of that happening, Skala have been a real breath of fresh air over the past couple of months. No, it’s not going to show very often against the top teams in the country but against fellow bottom five teams, it has been. Indeed, they’ve not lost against a bottom five team since August now, and have troubled far better teams than them with remarkable consistency lately, whether the results show it or not. Despite the season effectively being over for Skala, they’ve not looked better than they do now in the entire campaign, and I can’t help but wonder if that’ll result in a positive result for them today.

I can’t say that Skala are better than EB/Streymur, because it’s simply not true. However, things have improved a lot for the visitors lately. Some of their kids have matured a lot, especially Hansen, Kallsberg, and Jacobsen, no doubt under the watchful eyes of veterans like Klakstein, Danielsen, Jacobsen. Things feel a lot more positive at Skala now. They’re attacking more than they used to because they don’t have as much fear, and they’re a lot more effective because of it. I can’t get around the fact that they’re one of the two worst teams in the Betrideildin, but the way they’re playing at the moment is far better than the bookies seem to acknowledge, which is why I want to take a chance here.

EB/Streymur have access to a couple of players that Skala could only dream of having on their books e.g. Arnbjorn Hansen. For that reason, and that reason alone, EB/Streymur are right to be favourites to win this match. Being odds-on to beat a team that is very similar to them doesn’t make a lot of sense to me though. It’s not like it’s TB with their tactical brilliance, or IF with their outstanding firepower. It’s still a financially poor EB/Streymur with a lot of kids surrounding a few very good veterans, not entirely dissimilar from their opponents.

I may agree that EB/Streymur should be favourites today, but not to the extent that they are in the odds market. Neither team really has anything to play for here, and the only teams worth the short odds provided in the Faroe Islands is the top four, generally speaking. Admittedly, once upon a time, EB/Streymur were indeed one of the top teams in this country. Not for a long time now though, not since their financial troubles plus relegation. They’re a lot more healthy now that they’ve returned to the Betrideildin, at least from a financial perspective, but they’re nowhere near good enough to command such odds versus Skala at this point in time.

These two teams are well-matched, and I would give Skala a slight edge based on displays, so I am happy to back Skala to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 9/10.

Verdict: Skala to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 9/10.

Kristiansund vs Bodo/Glimt 

KO: 17:00 (UK time)

Sixteen points clear, huh? You have to wonder if they’re going to start losing games soon just to keep things interesting, Bodo/Glimt.

I’m sure folk will be lauding Hauge, Junker, and Zinckernagel for all that Bodo/Glimt have achieved, but it’s not any of them, and nor is it Evjen, the hero of last season. No, it’s all about boss Knudsen, and the brilliant future ahead of him. He’s worked wonders with a limited team with a limited budget. I don’t get what the penchant is for Danes, but he always finds the best ones to utilise, and I am sure that trait will continue too.

Never wonder why so few of these ‘stars of the future’ actually leave Bodo/Glimt? It’s because most clubs know that they’re not actually very good nor consistent footballers. Knudsen makes them such with his tactics and motivation; nothing more. It tends to be the same when players leave Galtier at Lille OSC, for example – the clubs that bought their players suddenly don’t see such a great footballer arrive. When you get a manager like this, it pays to keep hold of him – and Bodo/Glimt must do that, not just for themselves, but for Norwegian football in general because they’re a joy to watch.

Bodo/Glimt can score goals at any time against any team, and they know no fear. I’m fearful when I watch them because their defending is not good. I’ll be fearful today too, given how Kristiansund have now abandoned their short-lived attempt at defending consistently well in favour of a more balanced attacking and defending approach. Outscoring Bodo/Glimt, though? Only one team in Norway looks capable of doing that right now, and that’s not Kristiansund! The interplay, the movement, the speed, and the finesse in the visitors’ squad just makes them utterly ruthless, and even though they’ve got very little left to play for, I still find them very much worthy of being backed, Bodo/Glimt.

Kristiansund are no idiots, though – don’t have the wrong impression, please. I love their flexibility, and few Norwegian teams embrace tactical superiority quite like they do. They’ve finally found themselves a very good striker in Pellegrino, although I’ve still no idea why he moved to the club in this first place; his pedigree is well-known throughout the Eliteserien. With Swedish youngster Kalludra impressing, and a lot of very experienced battlers in their squad, Kristiansund are never easy for any Eliteserien team to actually beat. Bodo/Glimt will not be an exception; breaking this team down, especially at home, is excruciating.

Still, if any team can manage it, it’s the visitors today. They’ve got more creativity than I can even begin to mention, and their hosts do not have the firepower to rival them properly. I don’t see this one being a massacre, especially not after what ensued the last time these two teams met, but I do expect the soon-to-be-champions to do enough to pick up yet another three points, and odds of 5/4 are more than good enough to take that chance on.

Verdict: Bodo/Glimt to win at 5/4.

Lille OSC vs Olympique Lyonnais 

KO: 20:00 (UK time)

Lille OSC are the more professional, consistent team here, but I’ve seen something that I really like about Olympique Lyonnais this season. Their fans are naturally already highly impatient, still furious that they’ve got an ‘Olympique de Marseille reject’ as their manager. I think Rudi Garcia has done a good job though. What those fans fail to appreciate is how much shit he had to undo from previous managers in order to get the team to where it is now. They need more consistency, Olympique Lyonanis, but with the squad that Garcia has assembled, they’ll do that in time.

For my money, Lille OSC are a year or so ahead of Olympique Lyonnais in terms of how well their project is progressing. Galtier’s men look very assured, and very consistent; probably the most consistent French team in Europe right now, actually. They’re not perfect though, as Celtic managed to prove mid-week. Playing every three games is a tough test for most teams, and especially so for Lille OSC, who have improved their depth in some areas but not in others. Their defence has struggled a lot with the fixture congestion, and Jonathan David’s inability to score goals is starting to become very embarrassing with the Canadian wonderkid even missing a penalty in his last game, designed to give him that first Lille OSC goal to get the monkey off his back. I don’t doubt he’ll be a fantastic player one day but right now he’s suffering from a crisis of confidence, which is placing far too much weight on Yilmaz’s shoulders.

Yilmaz doesn’t mind that, but he’s not a youngster anymore. Ideally, he should be able to be rotated but the reality is that that cannot happen at the present time. Subsequently, little cracks are beginning to appear in this usually pristine Lille OSC side, and maybe, just maybe, Olympique Lyonnais are going to get enough right to upset the apple cart here. Again, I trust Lille OSC more than I trust Olympique Lyonnais by pure virtue of what they give on a regular basis, but let’s just say that I recognise the potential of the fitter visitors springing a surprise here.

There are a number of ‘spies in the camp’ for the visitors too, with Brazilian battler Thiago Mendes formerly of Lille OSC, and boss Rudi Garcia having earned his spurs at Lille OSC all of those years ago. It’s not about that, though. It’s about what Garcia has done at Olympique Lyonnais tonight. He’s turned the away team from a lazy, casual group of temperamental teenagers into a professional, hard-working, capable team that plays modern football, not just Football Manager-esque attacking style. No, Olympique Lyonnais now have a defence that can cope with playing a high line, a midfield that refuses to be bullied, and players with enough energy and tenacity to play a pressing game. Although they may have less star players than usual, I think they’ve become a far, far better team for it, Olympique Lyonnais, and the trip to northern France tonight is a great opportunity for them to prove it.

I’ll tell you what’s remarkable though – the number of people that aren’t talking about Dembele now. Isn’t it fun? All those folks saying that “Team X” or “Team Y” should buy this horribly overrated striker – where are they now? He wastes far too many chances, and I am not surprised he’s gone eight Ligue 1 games without a goal now. Frankly, I much prefer Toko Ekambi and Kadewere because they offer more than being a simple poacher, and to be honest, they’re both better finishers than him anyway. Much like with the Aouar situation pre-season, I suspect there’s more than a touch of regret that Olympique Lyonnais were not able to sell yet another horribly overrated player for a suspiciously high transfer fee.

I think credit needs to go to Depay at long last for his maturity. The old Depay would have sulked at the Barcelona CF deal falling through, but he’s got up and got on with things, finally playing with more consistency. When he’s in the mood, he’s brilliant – and he’s finally beginning to show it. With him, Paqueta, wonderkid Cherki, clever Cornet, and even temperamental Aouar in their squad, Olympique Lyonnais are not going to be short of chances, even against a solid Lille OSC defensive setup. I think whoever lines up against Bradaric tonight is going to have some fun too; the young Croatian is a brilliant full-back but has not played well recently, giving away far too many sloppy fouls, usually borne out of poor positioning.

Still, Olympique Lyonnais are an attacking team at heart, and despite their many midfield engines, they still don’t control games well enough to stop counterattacks. Giving Lille OSC space to break is generally a suicidal move, especially with Bamba and Ikone in the equation, not to mention arising Turkish sensation Yazici. They may have areas to work on, the home team, but what they bring to games is very dangerous. Celtic didn’t try to go defensive against them mid-week through cowardice; they did it so they didn’t have their arses handed to them by a lethal attack. They were clever, Celtic. Can Olympique Lyonnais be that clever? Time will tell.

For me, I think this game might just suit the home team, even though they’re bound to be feeling it in their legs more than Olympique Lyonnais for obvious reasons. I think they’ll be afforded space, and with space they’re dangerous. I certainly think they’ll create enough chances to score goals here, and they do have a good record against Olympique Lyonnais. It’ll be interesting to see which one of these two teams triumphs in this fascinating encounter, if indeed either do.

For me though, the timing of the fixture, the improvements of Olympique Lyonnais, and the slight chinks in the Lille OSC armour make me think that we’ll see an over 2.5 goals game – and at 9/10, I’m happy to take that chance.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.