We aim to give you the best possible information before each game. However, the moment the game starts, anything can happen, ranging from red cards to snow storms to pitch invasions. We can only prepare you for so much; it's up to you to learn how to develop yourself as to know when to jump ship if things aren't going as they should.
Pay attention to the odds provided for each tip. Be aware that the longer the odds are, the less chance there is of it coming in. Don't lean toward backing the bankers containing teams you've heard of or selections at longer odds because you trust the team more or if you see the pound signs flashing before your eyes. Sometimes bankers won't win, try to use the previews to steer you toward the right selection to make rather than taking the quick/lazy way.
Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.
Banker
Manchester City vs Olympiakos Piraeus
KO: (UK time)
Manchester City are still looking thin on numbers in certain areas. Right now, their main problem is their lack of strikers. However, they still see enough of the ball to create chances, and they’ve got brilliant midfielders, and thus they tend to find ways to win games. I respect Olympiakos Piraeus as the experienced UEFA Champions League campaigners that they are, and I know they’ll be hard to break down tonight. However, I still expect the English club to manage it, and when they do, it should be game over as the Greeks just aren’t clinical enough with the chances they create.
Verdict: Manchester City to win at 1/5.
Banker
Salzburg vs Bayern Munich
KO: (UK time)
The best in Austria vs the best in Germany – would it be fair to call this a ‘derby’, I wonder? There’s really not much distance between the two cities. Anyway, I expect a very good game, albeit one with a bit of bite, given Bayern Munich’s ‘purity’, and the subsequent resentment they have for the ever-growing number of Red Bull projects in football. On paper, there’s no real contest, and although I respect that Salzburg’s attack can trouble Bayern Munich here, their opponents are simply far better at scoring goals so an away win is to be expected here, especially with star striker Daka out for the hosts.
Verdict: Bayern Munich to win at 33/100.
Featured game
FC Wil vs FC Schaffhausen
KO: (UK time)
Today’s featured game is the Swiss Challenge League encounter between FC Wil and FC Schaffhausen.
I wanted to take this one as soon as I saw the odds anyway. I mean, you can’t even imagine the amount of time I’ve spent smirking at the prospect of promotion hopefuls FC Schaffhausen being underdogs against an extremely youthful FC Wil. By no means is this a banker away win, but there’s not a chance in shit that the visitors should be underdogs here. They’re considerably better than their hosts, and although I recognise that Yakin still has integration work to do with his squad, the visitors are still the better side here; there’s simply no getting around that. It’s a fact.
My belief in this outcome was only strengthened when I saw the absentee list for the home team too though. FC Wil are not a bad team but they lack experience, and they’re still getting used to new boss Frei’s ways. I don’t think they’ve played badly lately, but they’ve not had the rub of the green when they’ve needed it. Good chances have gone begging, for example, and opponents never seem to struggle to score against them. It won’t take much for them to become good again, FC Wil, but for now they’re a team to oppose.
For tonight’s game, FC Wil are without Talabidi, Ballet, Ndau, Zumberi, Klein, Ismaili, and de Mol, and are potentially without Mayer and Schappi. Some of those are long-term absentees, but the rough translation is that they’re likely to be without half of their back four here. That, fused with their very young attack that is struggling for confidence right now, makes me wonder how the bookies can consider FC Wil to be favourites tonight. FC Wil have good players; I’ve said that often enough this season. I still don’t know how they kept hold of Fazliu, for example, and adding Muntwiler and Haile-Selassie was terrific business for FC Wil. Without their attack firing on all cylinders though, FC Wil are always going to struggle because they’re supposed to be an attacking team. That’s why Frei was brought in; to play attacking football. Doing that without scoring is pretty damn suicidal though, hence their poor run of results of late.
FC Wil will bounce back; I just don’t see it happening tonight. FC Schaffhausen are genuinely a lot better than them, and their absentees have lessened somewhat since their win against battling SC Kriens at weekend. They have work to do themselves, FC Schaffhausen, because they won’t get promoted if they keep conceding the goals that they have been. Yakin is a top-drawer Swiss manager though, and he’s got arguably the best squad in the Challenge League at his disposal. It’s only a matter of time before they ease into their groove, and when they do, they’re going to dominate this division. Honestly, this is a terrific group of players, and one that should be treated with the utmost respect.
I do need to see more consistency from FC Schaffhausen though. They’re conceded far too many goals this season, and it’s by proxy of giving away so many chances. I get that they want to be bold, to play attacking football, and to outscore teams. However, that doesn’t mean committing men forward every time, or always taking risks. It’s about taking risks at the right times; that’s how to balance things out. Again, they’ve got enough quality and experience to figure this stuff out, given time, and a mature win against a difficult SC Kriens side at weekend should hopefully give them the required platform on which to build tonight.
FC Schaffhausen are without a few players but I’m not worried; not for this game. Experienced defender Neitzke is out, and that would normally be problematic, but given FC Wil’s struggles in front of goal, I can’t see it being too hard for the visitors to handle right now. Prtajin up front is out, but they have boatloads of options to replace him, and it’s Pollero that is the main goal-getter at the moment anyway. I mean, have folk really forgotten how good Sessolo is?
These two teams – it’s not even fair to compare them, really. FC Schaffhausen have made a lot of seriously impressive pre-season signings, and have a lot of what it takes to get promoted. FC Wil have done what they’ve done in order to stay afloat, and to make money by selling talented youngsters in the future. These two teams have different goals, and different squads with which to do it. How FC Schaffhausen are underdogs to win this one, I will simply never know. Even a 10-0 win for FC Wil would not convince me that the bookies have priced this one right, because they simply haven’t.
For me, backing FC Schaffhausen to win with draw no bet at 6/5 is an absolute steal.
Verdict: FC Schaffhausen to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Additional games
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
KO: (UK time)
The odds are dropping on the visitors here, which I find interesting. I’m a big fan of the work that Rose has done at Borussia Moenchengladbach, given that he’s made them into an efficient, modern hard-working team instead of the headless chickens that they were before him. Things are improving at the club, and I look forward to what the future holds for them.
I can’t help but wonder if folk are reading too much into Borussia Moenchengladbach’s excellent result against Real Madrid last week though. I thought they were the smarter team tactically, but let’s face it – they hardly created boatloads of chances. They took those chances well, yes, but I’m still not convinced that this team can outplay Shakhtar Donetsk tonight. And again, they did well to get the positive result in Milan but those two games have suited them, playing as underdogs, being able to counterattack against teams that were arguably a bit too complacent and possibly arrogant; two things that Shakhtar Donetsk never have issues with.
Tonight, the Germans have to play as favourites, and that still doesn’t suit them. It doesn’t suit them in the Bundesliga, and I doubt Europe will be any different. This is still a team that thrives on the break. They’ve got good defensive midfielders, mobile defenders, and rapid attackers. Their transitions are very impressive, and they always have a route to goal because of their forwards’ ability to turn their respective markers. Playing on the front foot doesn’t do anything for them, really. I’m not sure how they’re going to cope with this one.
Furthermore, as daft as this may sound, Shakhtar Donetsk are the most settled team in this group, wholly confident in everything that they do. Their football style has not changed in years now. All the kids promoted into their squad know it inside out because it’s how they play at every level. Everybody is on the same page at this club, and few teams in Europe keep the ball better than Shakhtar Donetsk do. They modelled themselves on Barcelona CF, many moons ago, and now play it better than Los Cules for my money. That was more than evident at the Santiago Bernabeu, and it should be evident again tonight too.
True enough, The Miners are without a few players – Ismaily, Dentinho, Kovalenko, Konoplyanka etc. – but none that gravely concern me. The biggest fear I had was that Junior Moraes would still be out but he’s back. He’s the only one in their squad that they struggle to replace because being a line-leader in a quick passing team like this is very hard. Moraes knows how to do it though, and is their best finisher. His presence not only affords them a focal point, but also helps free up the midfielders behind him, enabling them to escape the attention of their opponents more often than not. Him being back should make Shakhtar Donetsk a lot better than they showed against Internazionale, restoring a more natural balance to things. With Taison, Patrick, and Marlos drifting around behind him, and Stepanenko back to sit in front of the back four, I believe Shakhtar Donetsk will be back to their brilliant best tonight.
It’s fresh in my memory, the bitching of VfL Wolfsburg that Shakhtar Donetsk dished out earlier in 2020. VfL Wolfsburg are not so different from Borussia Moenchengladbach in style and approach. Shakhtar Donetsk are more settled, more confident, and far more experienced in Europe too. As well as Borussia Moenchengladbach have done in the UEFA Champions League this season – and they really have – I believe they’re out of their depth in Ukraine tonight. Counterattacking Shakhtar Donetsk is hard, to say the least, and I am not sure they’re going to be able to play their best game because of it.
For me, backing Shakhtar Donetsk to win with draw no bet cover at 6/5 is a risk worth taking.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Atalanta Bergamo vs Liverpool
KO: (UK time)
Liverpool are happy enough to participate in high-scoring games but they have to be cajoled into it nowadays. I admire the way that Klopp has developed their mentalities to the extent where you now feel like they’re going to win every game. It’s a winning mentality, basically. Even if a situation looks hopeless, or if they’re drawing toward the end of a match, the feeling place is generally that Liverpool will still win, and you just can’t buy that kind of mental weaponry.
Ironically enough, I don’t think this Liverpool side is as good as it has been over the past few years – and yet it’s better at winning. That’s what counts, too. People remember winners, not necessarily the teams that have played the best football on the day. Liverpool have become very efficient, no matter what problem has faced them, and they deserve respect for it, even though few hate the club more than I do!
Because they know they can outscore teams, Liverpool are not so quick to play on the front foot nowadays. They can raise their performance by a notch or two if required, enough so to win games that they perhaps may not deserve to win, and that makes them a bit more cautious than normal – because they know they can still win if things aren’t going their way. Subsequently, what I’ve found from them in Europe this season is that they’ve looked quite ropey. Again, they’ve still done enough to win two physically challenging fixtures, but their displays were not wholly convincing. Better finishing from their opponents would have made such fixtures more interesting because I’d argue that Liverpool didn’t really do enough to win either match.
Now they’re facing their hardest fixture in the group – Atalanta Bergamo away! The Italians will only ever play attacking football, as has been very evident in their other two group stage games. They should have won both, too – AFC Ajax Amsterdam got lucky with their finishing on the night, which was yet again, poor. They created chances, for sure, but Atalanta Bergamo were better in front of goal – it’s just that they didn’t show up quite enough in the first-half. You can’t keep Dea down for long though. They’ve got three cracking playmakers, some brilliant finishers, and are not afraid to commit everybody forward. Where the other two teams in the group have failed to take their chances, Atalanta Bergamo will succeed, so Liverpool need to be very careful here.
I do think that the high press and high defensive line of the home team will play into Liverpool’s hands too, though. Atalanta Bergamo give a lot of chances away, and Liverpool’s forward line is very fast, and they link up marvellously well. They’re the kind of team that could score a lot of goals tonight because they’re not lazy, and because their opponents are going to afford them more room than they’re generally given by most teams nowadays. Still, as Aston Villa proved a little while ago, Liverpool can still be caught out by teams playing boldly against them, so the 1×2 market is off the table for me, particularly with key defender van Dijk still out, and numerous others remaining doubtful for the English champions.
Atalanta Bergamo have the capacity to surprise any time in Europe right now; that’s what needs to be taken home here. They were able to rotate their squad significantly for their weekend win against newly-promoted Crotone, keeping plenty of players fresh for what is going to be an extremely energy-sapping game versus Liverpool tonight. It’s going to be one hell of a battle of wills between two extremely confident teams, and it should be a great game to boot, hopefully laden with goals too.
I just can’t call this one though. Part of me thinks it’s a good time to back the home team, given that van Dijk is out, and Liverpool are hardly blowing teams away at the moment. Atalanta Bergamo’s defending is pretty damn awful though, and Liverpool always find a way to score goals whether they’re playing well or not, especially with new Portuguese signing Jota already having impressed a lot. Atalanta Bergamo find themselves without wing-back Gosens, defensive midfielder de Roon, and centre-back Caldara for this one too, whilst Romero, Toloi, and Hateboer are all doubts too. Perhaps a slight leaning toward Liverpool, but not enough to get involved in.
Backing over 3.5 goals at evens simply makes sense to me though. Atalanta Bergamo will push Liverpool’s buttons, and one way or another, that should lead to a high-scoring game.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at evens.
FC Midtjylland vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
KO: (UK time)
Is it just me that thinks that AFC Ajax Amsterdam are priced too short to win this game? They’re a good side, yes, but they’ve done nothing in this competition to make me think that they’re ready for such a physical battle as they’ll get in Denmark tonight.
Even against a van Dijk-less and Alisson-less Liverpool, AFC Ajax Amsterdam were unable to score at home. There’s no shame in losing that game, but there’s shame in not scoring against the same team that has shipped more Premier League goals than any other this season. On paper, a 2-2 draw in Italy against Atalanta Bergamo might look respectable but I felt the only reason they got something from that game was because of Atalanta Bergamo themselves. The goals they scored were fortuitous finishes, basically. Atalanta Bergamo gave them plenty of chances to participate in an open game, which the Dutch heavyweights do prefer, and they didn’t struggle to create chances. Their finishing was poor though, and on another day, Atalanta Bergamo would have got the win that their overall display merited.
FC Midtjylland may have been unable to cope with how lethal Atalanta Bergamo were, but they gave Liverpool a seriously good game at Anfield, arguably deserving something from the contest. They didn’t get it, and fair enough, they’re technically the weakest team in the group, but nothing about them makes me think I should doubt what they’ll give tonight. They look as smart, hard-working, and diligent as ever, FC Midtjylland, and based on what AFC Ajax Amsterdam have shown lately, I really don’t see a reason for the Danes to fear their more illustrious opponents tonight.
You have to appreciate how good this FC Midtjylland side actually is. They’re not just here by chance; they’re here because they’re bloody clever. This project has been ticking away for a few years now, enough so to gazump Denmark’s bigger clubs on a regular basis. FC Midtjylland don’t achieve that by having a bigger budget; they achieve it by being smarter. They can’t compete with big spenders in terms of quality, so they make up for it by outsmarting opponents.
What FC Midtjylland now bring to the table is a team full of energy and stamina. Their midfield is one of the fastest in Europe this season; I don’t care what anybody says! Containing them is a complete pain in the arse. They press high, they press hard, and they never, ever stop. It helps to keep teams away from their back four in general, and it allows them to attack and counterattack very effectively. The only area they’re actually lacking in is in front of goal, where they do lack composure, I’m sorry to say. Other than that though, this is a very good team, and one that should trouble AFC Ajax Amsterdam tonight.
The away team have a lot of speed and silky skills, but I just tend to find that they’re too inexperienced to be effective now. Tadic is a class act, of course – if they’re to win in Denmark, it’ll be down to him, I’m sure. Other than that though, it’s Neres, Antony, Promes, Labyad, Klaassen – all very samey, you know? The industry is there, the confidence is there, but the variety is not. It’s in competitions like these where their weaknesses show, and AFC Ajax Amsterdam, much like their hosts, have issues with regularly converting their chances at a higher level. The only two exceptions to the above are their budding wonderkids, Kudus (injured) and Traore.
Ultimately, I just don’t understand why the visitors are priced as short as they are here because they’ve done nothing to deserve it. They might win the game, and fair enough if they do, but I believe the bookies have priced this one wrongly. For me, this will be a very complicated game for AFC Ajax Amsterdam to win, and I don’t see enough of a squad balance to trust that they’ll manage it. Therefore, I’m on FC Midtjylland with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 5/4.
Verdict: FC Midtjylland to win with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 5/4.
Real Madrid vs Internazionale
KO: (UK time)
It’s been a while since I expected a good game between Real Madrid and Internazionale, but I do tonight, albeit more through the defensive ineptitude of both teams rather than because they’re both phenomenal!
Still, I believe that both clubs have the right man leading them. I don’t rate Zidane highly as a manager, but he certainly does manage to get Real Madrid to tick when he needs them to the most. I can’t explain why, but he does have their ear better than anyone else I’ve seen manage them. Conte has done marvellously at Internazionale, reintroducing the winning mentality and modern football to the club, making them into title contenders again. However, he’s made a lot of changes – again – and the team is struggling for cohesion because of it, not least because of absentees. Their hosts are struggling more with a lack of depth and experience than anything else.
Bluntly put, both of these European powerhouses have problems right now. Neither of them are containing opponents, and neither of them are winning as regularly as they should because of it. Both still possess strong attacks, at least, and should have some fun attacking one another because of it. The idea of Real Madrid trying to contain a brilliant Internazionale attack presents a very amusing image to me. Similarly, watching Internazionale’s centre-backs trying to deal with Real Madrid’s movement and dribbling is also very funny to me. I just can’t see it. Neither team is well-placed to deny the other right now.
Here’s where it gets really good fun, though – they both need to win this one. Real Madrid are bottom of the group with one point from a potential six. After tonight, they’ve got trips to Milan and Donetsk to come, neither of which they’re likely to win. Internazionale have picked up two points from two games. Their position is marginally better than Real Madrid’s in the sense that they have two home games remaining after this, but they still need to start winning.
I believe both teams will regard this fixture as very winnable. Worse teams than Internazionale have won at the Santiago Bernabeu in recent years, and Real Madrid have a very poor home record because of it. At the same time, Internazionale are not controlling games well enough to concern Real Madrid, and nor are they defending well enough when sat deep to stifle their hosts like others have this season. So, yeah – I expect these two teams to push one another’s buttons rather well, which leads me to believe we’ll see a high-scoring game, even with Lukaku out.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 89/100.
Team news
Note
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
UEFA Champions League: Lokomotiv Moscow – Barinov and Lysov are absent. Atletico Madrid – Ferreira-Carrasco, Vrsaljko, and Costa are absent. Niguez is a doubt. Shakhtar Donetsk – Dentinho, Fernando, Ismaily, Konoplyanka, Kovalenko, and Malyshev are absent. Borussia Moenchengladbach – Musel, Poulsen, Villalba, and Zakaria are absent. Salzburg – Daka is absent. Bayern Munich – Davies, Nianzou, and Sule are absent. Real Madrid –Nacho, Odegaard, Militao, and Carvajal are absent. Lucas Vazquez and Odriozola are doubts. Internazionale – Sanchez and Lukaku are absent. Manchester City – Aguero, Mendy, and Fernandinho are absent. Jesus is a doubt. Olympiakos Piraeus – Ba is absent. Camara and Soudani are doubts. FC Porto – Marcano and Mbaye are absent. Olympique de Marseille – Nagatomo is absent. FC Midtjylland – Hansen, Brumado, and Riis are absent. AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Kudus is absent. Atalanta Bergamo – de Roon, Piccini, Gosens, and Caldara are absent. Toloi, Romero, and Hateboer are doubts. Liverpool – Fabinho, Oxlade-Chamberlain, and van Dijk are absent. Matip, Keita, Thiago Alcantara, and Tsimikas are doubts.
Swiss Challenge League: Aarau – Misic, Hajdari, Peralta, Schindelholz, Qollaku, and Thaler are absent. Balaj and Hammerich are doubts. SC Kriens – Aliu, Tadic, Fanger, Busset, and Maloku are absent. FC Wil –Talabidi, Ballet, Ndau, Zumberi, Klein, Ismaili, and de Mol are absent. Mayer and Schappi are doubts. FC Schaffhausen – Neitzke, Prtajin, Paulinho, and Bislimi are absent. Da Costa, F. Rodriguez, Alvarez, Bunjaku, and Lika are doubts.
Remaining thoughts
Note
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
UEFA Champions League: Lokomotiv Moscow vs Atletico Madrid (6) 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (6) 2-1 Salzburg vs Bayern Munich (7) over 2.5 goals Real Madrid vs Internazionale (5) 2-2 Manchester City vs Olympiakos Piraeus (8) 2-0 FC Porto vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 2-0 FC Midtjylland vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (5) 1-1 Atalanta Bergamo vs Liverpool (5) over 2.5 goals
Copa Sudamericana:
Liverpool Montevideo vs Sport Huancayo (6) 2-1 Bolivar La Paz vs Audax Italiano (6) 2-1 Deportes Tolima vs Union La Calera (6) 2-0 Sao Paulo vs Atletico Lanus (6) 2-0
Swiss Challenge League: Aarau vs SC Kriens (5) 1-2 FC Wil vs FC Schaffhausen (6) 0-2
