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Please understand that every single tip has the capacity to win, push, or lose. We aim to find good value bets (probability vs odds) as our focal area.
KO: (UK time)
Even after a change of manager, I can’t help but feel that Ludogorets Razgrad are just papering over the cracks. They’ve not spent well enough over the past two years, losing good players far more than they’re attracting them, and what’s left does very little for me. Even a rotated Tottenham Hotspur team should not struggle to find out a win here.
Verdict: Tottenham Hotspur to win at 33/100.
KO: (UK time)
If SSC Napoli were facing the Rijeka of two years back, I’d be more concerned with the possibility of their squad rotation tonight. That Rijeka side could defend. This one can’t, though. They present a solid enough image collectively, but break through that and you’ll find a defence that will concede goals. SSC Napoli are playing smartly enough to do that, and should win the game comfortably enough, especially with their hosts struggling with Covid-19, like so many are nowadays.
Verdict: SSC Napoli to win at 11/50.
KO: (UK time)
I like Molde FK a lot, but as I always say, they’re crap tactically. They’re confident, fast, and good dribblers, but can’t cope with smarter teams. If there’s one thing Arteta has brought to Arsenal, it’s a much smarter approach. Therefore, even with rotation, the Londoners should not struggle to overcome a Molde FK side with a very leaky defence.
Verdict: Arsenal to win at 7/25.
KO: (UK time)
Slovan Liberec aren’t a bad side but the lack of time their newbies have had together thanks to the temporary break of the Czech Liga 1 (which returns tomorrow, actually) means that they’re not as good as they could or should be. A trip to face a more modern-looking TSG Hoffenheim should not be a pleasant one for the visitors. The Germans are far from perfect, but they’re good enough to grind out the win here.
Verdict: TSG Hoffenheim to win at 7/50.
KO: (UK time)
I like Omonia Nicosia, and I think they’ve performed well under Berg in Europe this season. They’ve not once looked out of their depth tactically, no matter who they’ve faced – and most teams they’ve come up against have been considerably better than them on paper! However, they’re still having the same problems, week in, week out. The Cypriot side don’t convert enough of their chances, and at this level, teams will almost always bag at least one. Even an under-strength PSV Eindhoven beat them 2-1 last time out because they’re not good enough in front of goal. Jordi Gomez’s goal in that encounter may have been special, but is that really the most that Berg’s boys can offer going forward – spontaneous shots from the halfway line?
I like their experience in keeping the ball in midfield, and parting with it at the right time. They’ve got fast, hard-working wingers, and a solid defence. The only problem area for them is up front where they lack a clinical finisher. That might not cripple them at lesser levels, but at this one, it’s killing them. Although I don’t see Omonia Nicosia getting outplayed anytime soon, including tonight’s match, I can see them being beaten by teams that take their chances – and Granada CF fall into that category.
The Spanish side have taken lessons from Getafe CF over the years, prioritising the use of the ball over seeing a lot of it. Granada CF are good at everything without being great at anything, if you follow me. They’ve got a good mixture of hard-working butchers at the back, a couple of seriously good midfield controllers in the middle of the park, speed out wide, and lovely combinations up front between good finishers and tenacious forwards with good movement. Granada CF don’t really have any specific weak areas; you have to outfight and outscore them in order to win, and no European team has managed that yet this season.
Granada CF are simply a very impressive side, much as though it pains me to see it, knowing the ridiculous triangle setup behind the scenes that has led to their rise in prominence. They’ve had some seriously tough European tests already this season, and carefully navigated their way through each one, applying the right tactics at the right time. Whether they’re containing or creating, Granada CF remain a complete pain in the arse for opposing teams to deal with. I don’t see tonight’s match being any different.
Therefore, I’m on the away win at 9/10 in what should be a scrappy affair.
Verdict: Granada CF to win at 9/10.
KO: (UK time)
The 3-0 defeat at Boavista was not at all expected, but if you rotate your squad against a team that now has a defender like Rami and a playmaker likes Gomes, the possibilities are there for such to occur. I didn’t expect it; not in a million years. However, SL Benfica are prone to such occurring nowadays so it was not an impossibility, which is ultimately what made me leave them off my ‘bankers’ list on Monday.
SL Benfica should be back to full-strength today because hosting Rangers is tough. Gerrard’s boys have impressed me tactically, at least in Europe – I can’t speak much for their Premier League displays. In Europe though, they’ve looked modern, hard-working, and have played to their strengths, which is generally by playing counterattacking football. Whether it’s Hagi’s passing, Kamara’s driving runs, the skill of Kent, or the finesse of any number of good strikers they’ve got, Rangers have ways to goal that work. Defoe’s the best finisher of the lot, Morelos isn’t far behind, Itten has his moments, and Roofe just bagged one from the halfway line! That’s why it was more important for them to focus on their defensive work pre-season, which has paid divdends.
Tavernier, Goldson, Holender, Barisic, with Davis in front of them? It really does work, at least domestically. They’ve done well in Europe thus far too. No defence is perfect though, of course, and they’re up against a good attacking team today so it’ll be a stern test. I think Gerrard has done really well at Rangers though. They’re the most professional, organised, and consistent that they’ve been for a long time now. I like how effective and measured they are. I don’t think a trip to Lisbon tonight will faze them all that much, to be honest. It’s still a big ask, beating SL Benfica in their own backyard, but this Rangers side might just do it. I certainly think that they’ll at least score in Portugal tonight.
SL Benfica tend to score goals, though – that’s the problem for Rangers tonight. Forget Boavista; they’ve humbled most other teams this season, and it’s because they’ve not been afraid to finally spend some money in a bid to actually win the title again. I know they love him, but I’m not a huge fan of Seferovic up front as he’s not a good finisher. He fits their style of play well though, and he sure does work hard to get into all of the right positions. For me, it was bringing in Waldschmidt, Pedrinho, Everton, and Nunez in addition to already having Silva, Goncalves, and Pizzi has made this team very hard to handle. They’ll fashion chances, SL Benfica, whether regularly or irregularly, and they seldom fail to score at least once.
Even the SL Benfica defence looks better with Vertonghen and Otamendi at the heart of it, enough so for young French defender Todibo’s continued absence to not be a particularly big problem. There’s not enough defensive effort from their full-backs for me to trust SL Benfica to contain teams, but everything they do, at least from an offensive perspective, is good. Jorge Jesus being back in the saddle has helped to keep this team fresh and intelligent too; he knows how to control games. He knows European football inside out by now too. That’s the SL Benfica weapon here – Jorge Jesus. Getting the best of him is very challenging, to say the least.
I think we’re in for an interesting game here. It’s attack vs defence, but both teams are capable of pushing one another’s buttons. Therefore, I’m going to back both teams to score at 4/5, and leave it at that.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.
All of the information in this section is listed to the best of our knowledge, and we use local sources for as many areas as we can.
UEFA Europa League:
AS Roma – Calafiori, Diawara, Perez, Mancini, Pastore, Santon, and Zaniolo are absent.
CFR Cluj – Cestor is absent.
Rapid Vienna – Dibon, Fountas, Schobesberger, and Velimirovic are absent. Demir is a doubt.
Dundalk – Massey is absent. McEleney and Oduwa are doubts.
Slavia Prague – Boril, Karafiat, Kudela, and Provod are absent.
OGC Nice – Danilo, Dante, and Nsoki are absent.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Bitton is absent.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Aranguiz, Bellarabi, Arias, Paulinho, and Schick are absent.
SL Benfica – Almeida and Grimaldo are absent. Todibo is a doubt.
Rangers – Jones, Katic, and Edmundson are absent.
Lech Poznan – Butko, Kaminski, Tiba, and van der Hart are absent.
Standard de Liege – Muleka, Shamir, Tapsoba, Sissako, and Vanheusden are absent.
PAOK Salonika – Pereira is absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Baumgartl, Delanghe, Gakpo, Piroe, Dumfries, Romero, and Viergever are absent. Van Ginkel, Obispo, and Gutierrez are doubts.
Omonia Nicosia – No absentees.
Granada CF – Diaz, Foulquier, Lozano, Quini, Soldado, and Vallejo are absent. Azeez is a doubt.
Rijeka – Halilovic, Andrijasevic, Pavicic, Capan, Arsenic, and Ristovski are absent. Lepinjica and Stefulj are doubts.
SSC Napoli – Osimhen is absent.
Real Sociedad – Sangalli, Sola, and Zubeldia are absent. Pacheco, Zaldua, and Illarramendi are doubts.
AZ Alkmaar – Clasie is absent. Vlaar is a doubt.
Sivasspor – Camara is absent. Appiandangoye is a doubt.
Qarabagh FK – No absentees.
Ludogorets Razgrad – Marin Escavy and Wanderson are absent.
Tottenham Hotspur – Tanganga is absent.
Young Boys Bern – Lauper, Martins-Pereira, Petignat, and Spielmann are absent.
CSKA Sofia – Mattheij is absent.
Arsenal – Chambers, Mari, Martinelli, and Ozil are absent. Luiz is a doubt.
Molde FK – Haraldseid is absent.
Leicester City – Amartey, Castagne, Ndidi, Pereira, and Soyuncu are absent. Evans is a doubt.
Sporting Braga – Fonte is absent.
Zorya Lugansk – Grechkin and Kazakov are absent. Gromov and Makharadze are doubts.
AEK Athens – Chygrynskyi, Albanis, Garcia, Szymanski, Sardelis, and Simoes are absent.
Celtic – Abd Elhamed, Jullien, Forrest, and Johnston are absent.
Sparta Prague – Hlozek, Heca, Hanousek, Minchev, Holec, Kozak, Soucek, and Stetina are absent.
AC Milan – Castillejo and Musacchio are absent. Gabbia is a doubt.
Lille OSC – Fonte is absent.
Villarreal CF – A. Moreno and Parejo are absent. Coquelin and Foyth are doubts.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Nikolic is a doubt.
Antwerp – Benson, Coopman, de Sart, Lee, Lamkel, Nsimba, Rodrigues, and Pius are absent.
LASK – Holland, Grgic, and Reiter are absent.
Dinamo Zagreb – Misic and Theophile-Catherine are absent. Five unnamed players out with Covid-19.
Wolfsberger AC – Giorbelidze, Kuttin, and Sprangler are absent.
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Bijlow, Fer, Jorgensen, Sinisterra, and Bozenik are absent. Teixeira, and van Beek are doubts.
CSKA Moscow – Nababkin, Fuchs, and Karpov are absent. Schennikov is a doubt.
Red Star Belgrade – No absentees.
AA Gent – Arslanagic, Chakvetadze, de Bruyn, Bolat, Depoitre, Fortuna, Ngadeu-Ngadjui, and Roef are absent.
TSG Hoffenheim – Bicakcic, Hubner, Kaderabek, Kasim, Kramaric, Posch, and Stafylidis are absent.
Slovan Liberec – Nguyen is absent. Kacharaba is a doubt.
The "remaining thoughts" section is there to be a rough guide in case you want to get involved in games we haven't tipped. It is not there to tell anybody to back specific scorelines, or to guarantee that "2-2" games will go over 2.5 goals, for example. Ian lists what he believes to be the most likely outcome, and this is based on his assessment as to which way each game will develop. However, a "remaining thoughts" game listed with a 2-2 scoreline may have only just edged out a 0-0 scoreline in terms of probability because each game can develop in different ways.
UEFA Europa League:
AS Roma vs CFR Cluj (5) 1-0
Rapid Vienna vs Dundalk (6) 1-0
Slavia Prague vs OGC Nice (6) 1-0
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5) 1-1
SL Benfica vs Rangers (6) 2-1
Lech Poznan vs Standard de Liege (6) 1-0
PAOK Salonika vs PSV Eindhoven (5) 2-1
Omonia Nicosia vs Granada CF (6) 0-1
Rijeka vs SSC Napoli (7) over 2.5 goals
Real Sociedad vs AZ Alkmaar (7) over 2.5 goals
Sivasspor vs Qarabagh FK (6) 1-1
Ludogorets Razgrad vs Tottenham Hotspur (7) 0-2
Young Boys Bern vs CSKA Sofia (5) 2-2
Arsenal vs Molde FK (7) over 2.5 goals
Leicester City vs Sporting Braga (6) 1-0
Zorya Lugansk vs AEK Athens (5) 0-1
Celtic vs Sparta Prague (4) 1-1
AC Milan vs Lille OSC (5) 2-2
Villarreal CF vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv (6) over 2.5 goals
Antwerp vs LASK (5) 1-2
Dinamo Zagreb vs Wolfsberger AC (6) 0-0
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs CSKA Moscow (5) 1-2
Red Star Belgrade vs AA Gent (6) 2-0
TSG Hoffenheim vs Slovan Liberec (7) 2-0
Copa Sudamericana:
Emelec Guayaquil vs Union de Santa Fe (5) 2-1
Estudiantes de Merida vs Coquimbo Unido (5) 1-1
Atletico Tucuman vs Independiente (6) 0-0
Universidad Catolica vs Sol de America (6) 2-0
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Plaza Colonia (6) 2-0
Bahia vs Melgar FBC (6) 2-1
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